UFC/MMA Thread

3hn2givr7mx1sc

Haven't seen an MMA thread around so I said I'd start one as money can be very winnable in fights involving the lesser-known fighters.

Decent time to start it too with UFC 123 coming up with 2 big fights in Machida v Jackson and Penn v Hughes.


Machida is huge odds at 10/1 to win by submission. Machida doesn't have many wins by sub, but he has a black belt in BJJ and, imo, Rampage is suspect on ground game. Machida to win at 4/11 would be safer, but not great odds on that.
I'm going with Machida at 4/11 and a small one on Machida sub 10/1.

I think Hughes will beat Penn quite easily, tbh. I think Penn has lost the fire for MMA and doesn't care much anymore, and I've been very impressed by Hughes the last couple of times I've seen him. Plues, he was beaten by Penn before so he'll want to get revenge, imo.
I'm going with Hughes at 6/5.

I'll probably go with a small accumulator of Gerald Harris, Lyoto Machida, Matt Hughes, George Sotiropoulos, Phil Davis and Mark Munoz. Works out at 9/1.

mailburner

im with you on this one

the machida/sotir double works out around evens
and i just can't see past this
i don't see the sub for machida even being a possibility
but stranger things have happened.
Think rampage will land one punch for every 50 from machida

im unsure whether to throw hughes in as well yet until
i find out a bit more about penn and how he's training
for this fight.
It's just hard to know which bj penn will turn up this time

The Belcher

I dunno Baz, Hughes and Penn have fought twice, Penn dominated in the first fight and was completely dominating in the second fight also until he sustained a rib injury and got pounded in a cucifix(as far as I remember a crucifix).
Hughes hasn't really impressed me in any fight recently but he still holds solid wins over Serra and Almedia so you can't mock that. Renzo fight was a farce to begin with so I'll discount that totally. Hughes generally has trouble taking BJ down so I could see Penn dominating stand up. Surely BJ has to be hungry after back to back losses? Whats kind of worrying me is the jump in weight back to welter and will it affect his cardio. Haven't decided to back Penn yet but at the minute I like the look of BJ at 8/11 with Boyles.

I can't see Machida winning by sub either I'm afraid, I see a 3round snoozefest where Rampage keeps walking forward throwing predictable one twos and Machida picking him off with strikes and kicks. There's always a chance Rampage could land a bomb but I think Machida will be too wary this time especially after coming off a KO loss.

I like Simpson against Munoz especially at 6/4, I think it's overpriced and I can't separate the two fighters. I'm tempted to go big on it, I'll wait until after the weigh ins before I decide for sure. My UFC betting record is scandlous anyway so what do I know.

3hn2givr7mx1sc

I'm expecting a decision win for Machida, tbh, but I think 10/1 is a huge price for a BJJ black belt to win by sub, especially against Rampage.

I haven't been impressed by Penn in a while, whereas I have been very impressed by Hughes(excluding the Renzo fight). Might be letting my heart rule my head in this one but I can't see past a Hughes win, tbh.

scudzilla

Don't write BJ off, i wouldn't put any money on that fight cos it really is 50/50, it all depends how BJ's head is when he gets in the octagon, no way would i wanna risk any cash on how a guy's head is.

Price of the night for me is Paul Kelly at 4/7, the guy he's fighting is a replacement for an injured fighter, i know it was 4 weeks ago the replacement was made but IMO his new opponent isn't in the same league as Kelly

scudzilla

Question here about betting on UFC

If i go to PP or Ladbrokes and choose Matt Hughes to win by KO/TKO at 11/2 and for Lyoto to win by KO/TKO at 13/5 why can't i put this in as a double?

Or even for Lyoto to win by KO/TKO (13/5) in the second round (13/2)

The Belcher

scudzilla wrote: »

Question here about betting on UFC

If i go to PP or Ladbrokes and choose Matt Hughes to win by KO/TKO at 11/2 and for Lyoto to win by KO/TKO at 13/5 why can't i put this in as a double?

Or even for Lyoto to win by KO/TKO (13/5) in the second round (13/2)

It's the same with Paddy and Boyles, they don't seem to have it set up online to do unrelated doubles for UFC but if you ring them up they will do it for you(at least Paddy does anyway). I've tried to do UFC lucky15s online a few times with FOTN and winning method etc and I couldn't do it online either.

The Belcher

BJ looks in great shape I have to say. He's normally a chubby welterweight but seems to have gone the muscle route rather than just fat weight this time.
http://www.bjpenn.com/video/checking-my-weight-for-burt

Just after doing a 25 dbl Penn and Machida
Also 20 on Machida by decision at 5/4 and 5 on Matt Brown/Brian Foster for FOTN at 6s

Mellor

baz2009 wrote: »

I'm expecting a decision win for Machida, tbh, but I think 10/1 is a huge price for a BJJ black belt to win by sub, especially against Rampage.

If he was only a BJJ BB, then I'd agree that 10-1 is huge, but he is foremost a karate fighter. He used BJJ defensively, which makes him tricky on the ground, but he is only really an offensive striker

The Belcher wrote: »

It's the same with Paddy and Boyles, they don't seem to have it set up online to do unrelated doubles for UFC but if you ring them up they will do it for you(at least Paddy does anyway). I've tried to do UFC lucky15s online a few times with FOTN and winning method etc and I couldn't do it online either.

Those bets are set to singles only. You can do it, over the phone, or in a shop, but because MMa is a small market, they don't bother event linking fights (like in football where there is a box to the let saying "15 more bets")

scudzilla

Just went into PP's shop in Swords, asked them for a 10euro double on Machinda to win by KO in 1st round, refused to do the bet, said singles only

Was gonna put 10Euro on Machida and Rampage to win by KO 1st round as think both of them are highly capable of doing so

mailburner

gone with the sotir/mach double and a small
bet on this accum
hughes
sotir
hallman
machida

might get a sweat out of it

mailburner

paddy offering a distance special
sotir, machida and penn all to win by points at 14/1

had to invest a little at that price

mailburner

im shellshocked

never was i as confident especially when sotir obliged for me
i thought it was only a matter of collected
thought machida maybe sneaked it also

3hn2givr7mx1sc

Yeah I'd have given it to Machida too. Happy Rampage won though, cos I like him and my accumulator was gone anyway.:pac:

The rematch should be good.

Mellor

baz2009 wrote: »

Yeah I'd have given it to Machida too. Happy Rampage won though, cos I like him and my accumulator was gone anyway.:pac:

The rematch should be good.

there isn't going to be a rematch, not soon anyway

The Belcher

The Belcher wrote: »

BJ looks in great shape I have to say. He's normally a chubby welterweight but seems to have gone the muscle route rather than just fat weight this time.
http://www.bjpenn.com/video/checking-my-weight-for-burt

Just after doing a 25 dbl Penn and Machida
Also 20 on Machida by decision at 5/4 and 5 on Matt Brown/Brian Foster for FOTN at 6s

Just after watching this now and had avoided hearing the results. I am absoloutely disgusted, I was counting my money. Couldn't believe Rampage got the decision, I thought rounds1 and 3 were Machidas but I suppose Rampage was coming forward in round1 a lot which must have won it for him.
Sickened, you would not believe the stink run betting wise I am on, unreal. :mad:

3hn2givr7mx1sc

Anyone have any bets on tonight?
Gone for GSP, Oliveira, Struve, Stevenson and Alves myself Works out around 4.5/1.

mailburner

double for me
gsp/kosh + steph/danzig fights to go the distance at 5/4+8/11

also did a single on jim miller to win on points at 11/5 as i think its
too big given hes only lost twice, once to edgar and once to maynard