23 November onwards - 1st proper cold spell of Winter 10/11?

Rebelbrowser

There is growing agreement now that its going to get increasingly colder by the weekend and that by the middle of the following week we will have a constant easterly. By way of example this is what the BBC Monthly outlook says this morning.........."

Monday 22 November 2010 to Sunday 28 November 2010
Depression in France, the opposite in Sweden

With moderate confidence, this forecast generates a continuous easterly wind because of the mountain of air over Scandinavia and the hole in the atmosphere over western Europe.
That is, of course, a simplification but the top of the atmosphere really would look like that if you could see it and the wind really is that air trying to fall from the mountain to the valley and being diverted by the spin of the earth.
The result is a cold week with windchill although the wind is not strong and night frosts will form: Showers in the east, drier and sunnier than average in the west.


Monday 29 November 2010 to Sunday 12 December 2010
The Swedish mountain moves

The anticyclonic mountain of air looks likely to drift a little further west. The wind remains an easterly as a result but isn't indicated as too strong.
Again night frost and fog, especially in western UK, are possible. Temperatures are likely to be below average along with deficient rainfall, except maybe along North Sea coasts.
Again the positive is in the likely very sunny weather to the west of high ground, unless you are stuck in the fog."


Makes it sound cold but dry (unfortunately).

Some of the charts being posted on the other winter threads are much juicier looking though.

As a meteorologically challenged onlooker I look forward to the thoughts of the more knowledgeable...

Just as a general, hurler on the ditch, observation though... the November frosts to date are very impressive. Even here in near coastal Cork I've had 6 so far. The last two nights were well below. In fact some cars in my estate had ice all day yesterday. Amazing for November 14th. Last night there was early frost, there was rain in the middle of the night, and it was back to 0c by morning leaving a near Christmas morning 2009 scenario of frozen rain everywhere (lethal). My observation is that from 2000 to 2008 I just could not imagine that. Then something changed on the night of Hallowe'en 2008 (spooky, eh!) when temps dipped way below for the first time in years here in Cork. Ever since, winter frost night after night has been the near norm (the actual norm last winter). You just feel therefore that we are in a mini era when we will experience colder weather than the norm and when winter "events" will be more common. Certainly the cold of November 2010 has done little to suggest to me that this winter will be anything other than cold (and yes, I'm really basing this on little more than gut instinct).

Anyway, I digress. Back to the main issue, is there a proper cold spell on the way?

WolfeIRE

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Anyway, I digress. Back to the main issue, is there a proper cold spell on the way?

yes. daytime highs of 4-7c for ireland next week with higher ground (200m asl) of eastern half of the country likely to see some wintry precip by midweek.

nacho libre

The BBC monthly outlook tends to be fairly accurate. Perhaps since they've given up on lrf forecasts they've devoted even more focus to the monthly outlook. I'd say there is a 65- 70 per cent chance of a decent cold spell at this stage.

If this winter does turn out to be colder than average, then i think we have to say the low solar activity, as well as the gulf stream not being as potent as it was, have a huge bearing on our weather. Does anyone agree?

WolfeIRE

nacho libre wrote: »

If this winter does turn out to be colder than average, then i think we have to say the low solar activity, as well as the gulf stream not being as potent as it was, have a huge bearing on our weather. Does anyone agree?

admittedly, the last month or two have seen average to slightly below average temps. deep easterly may be able to verify that this is a change to the last couple of years.

Joe Public

nacho libre wrote: »

If this winter does turn out to be colder than average, then i think we have to say the low solar activity, as well as the gulf stream not being as potent as it was, have a huge bearing on our weather. Does anyone agree?

Agreed ok but it's still bordering on speculation unless it can be proved.

thetonynator

And the 4 month non stop cold spell begins . . .:D

Pangea

Joe Public wrote: »

Agreed ok but it's still bordering on speculation unless it can be proved.

You should be a lawyer in the snow courts :pac:

Whatever causes the cold weather bring it on son!

Deep Easterly

WolfeIRE wrote: »

admittedly, the last month or two have seen average to slightly below average temps. deep easterly may be able to verify that this is a change to the last couple of years.

Hey WoleIRE, you can monitor daily/monthy and yearly temperature deptartures from the norm at the main synoptic stations on the NCEP website.

30 day daily anomalies

90 day daily anomalies

365 day daily anomalies


Valentia 90 day daily trend:

Hairy Nipples 87

couldnt agree more!!

Redsunset

Hairy Nipples 87 wrote: »

couldnt agree more!!

About what exactly,your running around different threads make short little remarks.