The last Christmas for the FF party?

oppenheimer1

I have been thinking of the future of Irish politics and looking into my crystal ball on what I expect the political landscape to look like in the say two years down the line. I'm now firmly of the belief that FF as an organisation is so damaged that Christmas 2010 may well be its last as a significant force in Irish politics, and that a couple of years down the line will be disbanded totally after the next set of locals. The current FF politicians will then either form a new party or try to be absorbed into FG which for all intents and purposes is significantly similar to FF ideology wise. Possibly both scenarios will exist. This new party will align itself to the right and a left right divide will form in the Dáil.

Some may say good riddance to FF, others will say that the structure on the ground is far too strong for this to ever happen. However I feel the FF brand is far too damaged for anyone to contemplate associating with in future, and that by 2014 Devs party will join him in the history books.

Thoughts?

Seth Brundle

I don't think so.
FF still have about 20% of the electorate who don't must still believe that it was all Lehman's fault.

I think FF will pull a few strokes before the next GE to win a few votes. However, I think that most sensible people will look to punish them but I don't see it as a long term sentiment.

In two years it will probably be a FG/lab government but unfortunately most out there will be complaining about them and wishing FF were back in!

The FF brand is damaged but I don't think FG or Lab are too hectic. I believe that most people think that they are all as bad as each other - its just that FF were the ones that managed to scrape in last time!

We need a complete overhaul of our politicians and not just removal of FF. We need to remove the current batch of glorified councillors and at the same time reduce their numbers (and renumeration!).

thebman

My thoughts are simply that FF and FG basically have many shared policies. I think most people would agree with this.

What this basically means is that the party names are essentially just a brand name for the people running in their area.

It should be clear by the opinion polls that the FF brand name is all but dead at the moment. With the harshest budget in the history of the state to try to fix problems they created, I think its impossible that they will survive.

Rabble Rabble

I think thats wrong, KBannon. FF were at 18% last poll. They can only drop more. The Irish system is proportional but not that proportiomal. At 18% they may get 15% of the Dail, at 15% - 10 % , at 10% none. 0%.

FF's ideology depends on power. They are like the PRI in Mexico. They will lose their left wing and public sector vote to Labour, the nationalist right vote to Sinn Fein, Capitalist vote to FG and if they spend a parliament without power and patronage they have no reason to exist.

mikemac

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

others will say that the structure on the ground is far too strong for this to ever happen.

I say this.
They are extremely well organized at cummann level. A credit to them and some of the opposition parties would do well to copy and learn.

I've commented on their local structure, not their leaders or policies

oppenheimer1

kbannon wrote: »

I don't think so.
FF still have about 20% of the electorate who don't must still believe that it was all Lehman's fault.

I think FF will pull a few strokes before the next GE to win a few votes. However, I think that most sensible people will look to punish them but I don't see it as a long term sentiment.

In two years it will probably be a FG/lab government but unfortunately most out there will be complaining about them and wishing FF were back in!

The FF brand is damaged but I don't think FG or Lab are too hectic. I believe that most people think that they are all as bad as each other - its just that FF were the ones that managed to scrape in last time!

We need a complete overhaul of our politicians and not just removal of FF. We need to remove the current batch of glorified councillors and at the same time reduce their numbers (and renumeration!).

In the wake of the nuclear winter like budget thats forecast, I've a strong feeling that their support will dramatically shrink further, especially if they hit the pensioners in the pocket (which imo they should and must). Even though PR does usually reflect the broad support nationwide, the number of votes could fall below the threshold that produces significant seats, which I've a feeling it will. The polling in individual constituencies would be interesting. in the next GE I believe it will be FF and Lab on the opposition benches as I think Enda could pull off an overall majority. I think Lab will be found out for lacking in policy and fence sitting in a GE campaign.

As said earlier, FF without power are too centrist to hold onto support without power. As their power evaporates so will their remaining support as they have no reason for existing.

CoalBucket

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

I have been thinking of the future of Irish politics and looking into my crystal ball on what I expect the political landscape to look like in the say two years down the line. I'm now firmly of the belief that FF as an organisation is so damaged that Christmas 2010 may well be its last as a significant force in Irish politics, and that a couple of years down the line will be disbanded totally after the next set of locals. The current FF politicians will then either form a new party or try to be absorbed into FG which for all intents and purposes is significantly similar to FF ideology wise. Possibly both scenarios will exist. This new party will align itself to the right and a left right divide will form in the Dáil.

Some may say good riddance to FF, others will say that the structure on the ground is far too strong for this to ever happen. However I feel the FF brand is far too damaged for anyone to contemplate associating with in future, and that by 2014 Devs party will join him in the history books.

Thoughts?

I so hope that is a reliable crystal ball.

Seth Brundle

Once FF are out of power, people will start getting angry at the cuts delivered by the new government and the hostility against FF will dimiinish.
Yes the next GE will be damaging but I don't see it as the end.

Lapin

I wouldn't be so sure that 2010 will be Fianna Fáil's last Christmas in Power.

It could well turn out yet that Christmas 2009 will be their last !

Revolution9

If the IMF come in we effectively lose our sovereignity and FF will have failed the State and will surely die a well deserved death

charlemont

I hope its as bad a christmas for them as it will be for us, the people.

Amhran Nua

I've never been presented with a ballot sheet allowing me to vote for FF or FG or any particular party. I've been presented with plenty of choices between local politicians who have been busily fixing the pot holes and polishing the parish pump for the last decade.

FF could very easily survive, because people don't vote for FF. They vote for the TD who has helped them, personally, out the most. If that TD is affiliated with FF, it makes no difference to them.

This is a result of the single transferable vote system.

Dannyboy83

FF are like herpes, once you've got it, you just can't shake it.
They've bounced back from similar catastrophes and will do so again.

Outside politics forums, most people don't really give a sh1te about politics as long as their pockets aren't empty.
Give it 5-10 years, people will forget, FF will be back and I've no doubt they'll waltz us down the avenue of national destruction once again.

nesf

kbannon wrote: »

I don't think so.
FF still have about 20% of the electorate who don't must still believe that it was all Lehman's fault.

More accurately, you've 20% of the population who don't want to vote FG but who are centre-right and are left with no option but to vote FF or not vote at all. There's still a strong anti-FG emotion in many parts of the country for various reasons both rational and irrational.

Capt'n Midnight

FF is like a religion

they survived the revelations about Charlie
the 80's were worse than now

I know someone who reckons that anyone who voted for FF at the last election should be disenfranchised. Until that happens they will continue to buy elections , though in fairness nobody wants to win the next election

gandalf

As someone has pointed out already FF have an excellent structure and organisation. For that reason alone they are not going out of business unless something really drastic happens in the next six months that causes senior cumann members to defect or leave.

FF also has manipulation of parish pump politics down to a tee. If we can evolve our voting system from the current one where our national representative is nothing more than a jumped up county councillor then people might examine the policies that the parties are actually promoting and politics would get a chance to mature in this country.

So unfortunately this will not be the last Christmas for the FF party, it might be their last Christmas in power for a while but they will survive. And remember the only people who probably will have money next year will be all the ex-TD's and Ministers with their inflated pensions while the rest of us have what's left of our measly incomes slashed and taxed even more.

johngalway

feelingstressed wrote: »

I say this.
They are extremely well organized at cummann level. A credit to them and some of the opposition parties would do well to copy and learn.

I've commented on their local structure, not their leaders or policies

That is something, in a purely organizational sense that is admirable alright, and that's coming from a FG voter.

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

the 80's were worse than now

though in fairness nobody wants to win the next election

I agree with the commentators who're saying this is worse than the '80's. Some of the reasons they gave was that in the 80's we were coming from a hard times decade, and not the biggest boom in our history, so the percentages are vastly different.

We had the pressure valve of good economies in the USA, UK, Germany, Australia etc, now we have global recession.

We also had more good feeling towards us internationally as we were the poor man of Europe genuinely, and we hadn't strutted around the world rubbing other countries noses in our false wealth.

I think FG would do well with a majority, and not do so well in coalition with Labour.

To answer the OP, I don't believe this is the end of FF.

Tipp Man

I think people predicting the end of FF are way of the mark. For certain they will get anhilated at the next election (i'm not going to put a figure on seats but maybe less than half of what they currently have)

However as has been mentioned previously they have quite a large hard core of voters who will vote for them regardless, coupled with an extremely well organised local political structure this gives them a great base on which to build again.

so they will be out of power after the next election, will be much stronger in 2 elections time (but probably still not back in power) but after that i think they will be a force to be reckoned with again

bmaxi

The next government will not contain FF, I think that's a given. However, if the Government parties, whoever they are, turn out to be FF MK.2 then I think it is they, rather than FF, who could languish for a long time.
Historically, people have turned to the opposition in exasperation at FF, only to be disappointed, the opposition have never had more than one chance to get it right and they have never taken that chance.
After the next GE, it is likely that FG/Lab will have a bigger majority than they have ever had. Question is, will they use that majority to make the reforms that are needed or will they ride the gravy train to oblivion themselves? This is the choice facing them.
FF support has wavered before but they are still here.

Liam Byrne

bmaxi wrote: »

Historically, people have turned to the opposition in exasperation at FF, only to be disappointed, the opposition have never had more than one chance to get it right and they have never taken that chance.

What does that mean, exactly ?

I'll agree that it's been obvious that they're happy enough with the expenses and other parts of the regime, but the last time they were in power they got the economy right and set the seeds for what FF threw away.

We need a more intelligent electorate; one that doesn't look at FG & whoever reining in the flaithúlach spending and then look at FF promising to blow the lot on an election-buying campaign.

Panrich

Liam Byrne wrote: »

What does that mean, exactly ?

I'll agree that it's been obvious that they're happy enough with the expenses and other parts of the regime, but the last time they were in power they got the economy right and set the seeds for what FF threw away.

We need a more intelligent electorate; one that doesn't look at FG & whoever reining in the flaithúlach spending and then look at FF promising to blow the lot on an election-buying campaign.

I agree with this. Sophisticated electrorate my arse. We only need to look across the ocean to see what will happen. After Obama was handed the largest bucket of sh1t any president ever received by GBW and his cronies, it now seems that his inability to turn it into pot pourri is being punished by the electorate and they have turned to the people who landed them in the mess again.

scr123

In 2007 FF got 850000 1st pref votes = 41.6%

Polls now say 18% = 370000 1st pref votes

This means near enough 500000 are going to walk away from FF

FG will get none of the 500000

Does that mean Labour will get the 500000 ?

I know message boards are full of ABFF but do they really believe FF are just going to lie down and die ? They might want that but the problem I have noticed with the ABFF since I discovered message boards is that they 100% concentrate on the FF weaknesses and 100% refuse to not only discuss what they have to offer but blatantly disregard the simple fact they have lost the last 6 elections and they still do not know why !
If I was young enough I would start a business selling bottles of "COPON" to the 1m or so members of the ABFF

jmayo

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

I have been thinking of the future of Irish politics and looking into my crystal ball on what I expect the political landscape to look like in the say two years down the line. I'm now firmly of the belief that FF as an organisation is so damaged that Christmas 2010 may well be its last as a significant force in Irish politics, and that a couple of years down the line will be disbanded totally after the next set of locals. The current FF politicians will then either form a new party or try to be absorbed into FG which for all intents and purposes is significantly similar to FF ideology wise. Possibly both scenarios will exist. This new party will align itself to the right and a left right divide will form in the Dáil.

Some may say good riddance to FF, others will say that the structure on the ground is far too strong for this to ever happen. However I feel the FF brand is far too damaged for anyone to contemplate associating with in future, and that by 2014 Devs party will join him in the history books.

Thoughts?

Won't happen.
As others have mentioned there local infrastructure is very strong.
Irish people as can be seen from the fact we haven't lynched them already are easily led and will be crying for ff to be back in power after a couple of tough budgets implemented by the opposition.

One scenario I can see playing out is that Labour go into governmnet with FG and then get cold feet about making massive cuts after 1 or 2 budgets and if they have the numbers they run off to ff to form a government.
If the numbers stack up don't write off this possibility.

Anyway won't some of them be in a new ff under your own esteemed "cough cough turn a corner" lenihan ?

feelingstressed wrote: »

I say this.
They are extremely well organized at cummann level. A credit to them and some of the opposition parties would do well to copy and learn.

I've commented on their local structure, not their leaders or policies

Very true sadly.

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

In the wake of the nuclear winter like budget thats forecast, I've a strong feeling that their support will dramatically shrink further, especially if they hit the pensioners in the pocket (which imo they should and must). Even though PR does usually reflect the broad support nationwide, the number of votes could fall below the threshold that produces significant seats, which I've a feeling it will. The polling in individual constituencies would be interesting. in the next GE I believe it will be FF and Lab on the opposition benches as I think Enda could pull off an overall majority. I think Lab will be found out for lacking in policy and fence sitting in a GE campaign.

As said earlier, FF without power are too centrist to hold onto support without power. As their power evaporates so will their remaining support as they have no reason for existing.

Won't happen since some dyed in the wool ffers would rather committ hari kari than vote for FG.

bmaxi wrote: »

The next government will not contain FF, I think that's a given. However, if the Government parties, whoever they are, turn out to be FF MK.2 then I think it is they, rather than FF, who could languish for a long time.
Historically, people have turned to the opposition in exasperation at FF, only to be disappointed, the opposition have never had more than one chance to get it right and they have never taken that chance.
After the next GE, it is likely that FG/Lab will have a bigger majority than they have ever had. Question is, will they use that majority to make the reforms that are needed or will they ride the gravy train to oblivion themselves? This is the choice facing them.
FF support has wavered before but they are still here.

Yes, but the problem is that the opposing ogvernments have always been coalitions and have usually been made up of right and left leaning parties.
The Costelloe governemtn in late 40s early 50s was made up of hocth pot of parties and look at the FG/Labour governments of the 70s, 80s and 90s. The FG/Lab coalition government of the 90s was actually a very good and successful government.
Sadly the Irish electorate rathered a party led by a sleveen who saw no problem with having one of Ireland's most corrupt politicans as minister of foreign affairs.

What we actually need is FG majority to take on some of the vested interest groups in this country.
Labour will never willingly take on their own members like jack o'connor.

bmaxi

Liam Byrne wrote: »

What does that mean, exactly ?

I'll agree that it's been obvious that they're happy enough with the expenses and other parts of the regime, but the last time they were in power they got the economy right and set the seeds for what FF threw away.

We need a more intelligent electorate; one that doesn't look at FG & whoever reining in the flaithúlach spending and then look at FF promising to blow the lot on an election-buying campaign.

I meant, other than FF led administrations, all others have been one term. The chances are, if the new Government is not seen to be making reforms, it will be one term as well. I can't recall a time when the excesses of politicians was more in the public mind than today.

PeterIanStaker

It suits FF to bail now and let someone else try to clean up the mess. Its not the first time they've done so - the Mother & Child Scheme immediately springs to mind, (they sought to pass the buck rather than be seen to go against the RCC) and that was a much less significant issue than whats going on today.

gazzer

FF could bring out a policy saying that the first born in every family had to die in order to save the economy and some idiots would still vote for them. Boggles the mind.

Dannyboy83

Nice little article by Kevin Myers on the subject.

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/kevin-myers/kevin-myers-ff-doesnt-aim-high-because-it-understands-moral-mediocrity-2412439.html

Yes, sure, Fianna Fail might well come an electoral cropper in Donegal, and again in the General Election, but we know where they stand in the longer run; where they always do, outside the council planning office, whistling Boolavogue, with planning applications for 20 cowshed-sized bungalows on the monastic sites at Glendalough and Gougane Barra, and a job for your kids on the QT. And, of course, somewhere down the line, ruination once again.

bmaxi

gazzer wrote: »

FF could bring out a policy saying that the first born in every family had to die in order to save the economy and some idiots would still vote for them. Boggles the mind.

That was tried in Egypt a while back, didn't work then either. God, or so I'm told, is still around.

Liam Byrne

scr123 wrote: »

I know message boards are full of ABFF but do they really believe FF are just going to lie down and die ? They might want that but the problem I have noticed with the ABFF since I discovered message boards is that they 100% concentrate on the FF weaknesses and 100% refuse to not only discuss what they have to offer but blatantly disregard the simple fact they have lost the last 6 elections and they still do not know why !

I haven't lost any elections, because I don't support any party.

Also, if most of the electorate want FF to "lie down and die", then surely - if they are a democratic party - that's what they should do ?

I mean, the fact that almost half of the electorate voted FF is trotted out often enough as a mechanism to shut the rest of us up, so why does the same (reversed) logic not apply now ?

Also - corruption isn't a "weakness"; it's a choice.

scr123 wrote: »

If I was young enough I would start a business selling bottles of "COPON" to the 1m or so members of the ABFF

You support FF, so the bottles would be empty. You can't sell something you don't own.

On second thoughts, give FF's support of Anglo & NAMA, maybe they don't realise that fact.

thebman

scr123 wrote: »

In 2007 FF got 850000 1st pref votes = 41.6%

Polls now say 18% = 370000 1st pref votes

This means near enough 500000 are going to walk away from FF

FG will get none of the 500000

Does that mean Labour will get the 500000 ?

I know message boards are full of ABFF but do they really believe FF are just going to lie down and die ? They might want that but the problem I have noticed with the ABFF since I discovered message boards is that they 100% concentrate on the FF weaknesses and 100% refuse to not only discuss what they have to offer but blatantly disregard the simple fact they have lost the last 6 elections and they still do not know why !
If I was young enough I would start a business selling bottles of "COPON" to the 1m or so members of the ABFF

:rolleyes:

The opposition parties were never going to get into power with FF giving election presents out to the electorate from money from unsustainable tax intakes from the property market.

The electorate were more than happy to take these presents as many were not aware of the unattainability of the policies being pursued by FF.

They opposition now smell blood which is why you see much more detailed policy documents being released and FF's unsustainable policies are being seen for what they were.

FF will need major reform to be electable in the future. People who say they will forget, fail to realise that many have 200,000 Euro loan reminders of what FF stand for. The elderly may continue to vote for them and give them their 20% but that can only last so long as elderly people do eventually give up the go especially in our health system. FF are currently sacrificing the possibility of replacing these voters by sacrificing their incomes to try to protect their current vote.

A foolish mistake given they are unelectable at the moment IMO and I think they are walking down a road towards self-destruction even if they do rise again slightly before the final fall.

I should also say I'm not part of any political party and think that the others will likely go the same way eventually as we need political reform and the people will eventually realise that the parish pump politics are what is bringing us to our knee's over and over and push for proper political reform, something the existing parties seem unable and unwilling to deliver as they like their gravy train too much.

oppenheimer1

jmayo wrote: »

Won't happen.
As others have mentioned there local infrastructure is very strong.
Irish people as can be seen from the fact we haven't lynched them already are easily led and will be crying for ff to be back in power after a couple of tough budgets implemented by the opposition.

One scenario I can see playing out is that Labour go into governmnet with FG and then get cold feet about making massive cuts after 1 or 2 budgets and if they have the numbers they run off to ff to form a government.
If the numbers stack up don't write off this possibility.

While I understand that the organisation on the ground is strong, I do think that most of these cummann will migrate to a new party. This of course will be FF under new banner, but it will also lead to fragmentation as without power there is nothing to unite the party. There is no over-riding ideology.

As for FG running to FF this is a distinct possibility. As said previously, I expect FG to get an overall majority, albeit a slim one. Some of the harsh measures may cause some of the back benchers to jump ship. Electoral reform undertaken by a new govt may prove divisive internally within the new govt too. The turkeys will be voted in with the intention that they give us a referendum for the proverbial "christmas".

Anyway won't some of them be in a new ff under your own esteemed "cough cough turn a corner" lenihan ?

I would be surprised if Lenihan stood for election again considering his health difficulties. I'm guessing he has better things to do then languish on the opposition benches.

Very true sadly.



Won't happen since some dyed in the wool ffers would rather committ hari kari than vote for FG.

People are over estimating the number of people that would vote FF come what may. My opinion is that a large proportion of the 18% consists of pensioners and those that think the cuts are a necessary evil. Once this budget starts to dole out the pain to all sectors and not leave one untouched, the stubborn 18% will start to abandon the party. I forsee FF at best returning with numbers in the mid to high twenties in the next Dáil. In the wake of such a disaster it will take an amazing leader to prevent the party fracturing. Apart from Lenihan, I don't see who could do it.

FF is a brand for a centre right party, there may be no point in trying to revive it considering it is so damaged. It will rebrand or disband but I cannot see it continuing in its current guise. We are in for a long period of pain, I do not think the electorate will forget. Sure in 10 years time the FG or Lab government will be turfed out by an unhappy electorate, I just can't see FF still existing then to take over the reigns.

People wrote off the Conservatives in the 1997 election as being finished though, so maybe they will bounce back. I just cant see it happening, strong grassroots and all.

jank

FF will be back but as the ol' die-hards are well old and die away.. (sorry for the pun) they will never be as strong as they were. I could never see them on 41% of the vote again in fact I can't ever see any party on that share.

What I see happening is that FG and Labour get in this time. Then come 2015/16 when voters are unhappy with all the cuts and want to bring back the good times that they had under FF :rolleyes:

Well what should happen then is that FG and FF go into governemnt. That will pull the rug from under Labour and signal the end of civil war politics forever. Nice timing too given the 100 year anniversary of the easter rising. It would be a nice sign of actually doing something for the country rather than the cute hoors in Mayo or Kerry.

At least then we will have a proper left/right wing divide in the country. Can only dream though. However the whole way of governing has to change. PTV has to go in the dustbin as it only leads to clientism.

hallelujajordan

Liam Byrne wrote: »

I haven't lost any elections, because I don't support any party.

Also, if most of the electorate want FF to "lie down and die", then surely - if they are a democratic party - that's what they should do ?

Liam, you have come up with some doozies in the past but this has to be the most farcical argument I have seen from you . . You are suggesting that 'most of the electorate' have to want you to exist in order for you to have a right to exist ! You do realise that no political party in Ireland can pass this acid test of yours.

What happens if a party does win over 'most of the electorate' . . do the other parties then 'lie down and die' ? Are you looking for a communist regime akin to China ?

Fianna Fail will lose support at the next election there is no doubt, but not to the extent that people expect. Just look at Donegal. FF will probably not win the seat but they are expected to top the poll.

I expect that in the next election they will poll somewhere between 20-25%. They may go into opposition but that honestly depends on the strength of Labour (Gilmore will not walk away from the possibility of being the first Labour Taoiseach) . .

I hope we do go into opposition, and when we do we will regroup, re-evaluate our ideals and prepare to offer the Irish people an alternative to the likely FG-LAB coalition. The next generation of FF will be a different animal altogether and those who believe the party will disappear have clearly no understanding of Irish politics. . .

jmayo

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

...
As for FG running to FF this is a distinct possibility.

Ehh I said Labour running to ff not FG.

FG agreeing with ff is about as likely as ff agreeing with FG. :rolleyes:

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

As said previously, I expect FG to get an overall majority, albeit a slim one. Some of the harsh measures may cause some of the back benchers to jump ship. Electoral reform undertaken by a new govt may prove divisive internally within the new govt too. The turkeys will be voted in with the intention that they give us a referendum for the proverbial "christmas".

That could be what finishes Kenny even if he had won overall majority.
Then they could do like the greens and say well it was our leader that said it so now that he is gone we won't be performing any reform.

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

FF is a brand for a centre right party, there may be no point in trying to revive it considering it is so damaged. It will rebrand or disband but I cannot see it continuing in its current guise. We are in for a long period of pain, I do not think the electorate will forget. Sure in 10 years time the FG or Lab government will be turfed out by an unhappy electorate, I just can't see FF still existing then to take over the reigns.

Of course it will rebrand much like New Labour or even what should now be called New Conservatives.

jank wrote: »

FF will be back but as the ol' die-hards are well old and die away.. (sorry for the pun) they will never be as strong as they were. I could never see them on 41% of the vote again in fact I can't ever see any party on that share.

Please get it out of your head that it is just old people that vote for ff.
They have young voters too that did or do well out of their associataion with ff.
These people know they will not do as well out of the other parties.

jank wrote: »

Well what should happen then is that FG and FF go into governemnt. That will pull the rug from under Labour and signal the end of civil war politics forever. Nice timing too given the 100 year anniversary of the easter rising. It would be a nice sign of actually doing something for the country rather than the cute hoors in Mayo or Kerry.

Excuse me mr syndey.
Why do people always list Kerry or Mayo or some other rural county as example of cute hoors when Dublin, yes Dublin, has provided the greatest cute hoors that have swindled their way through public office in this land.

Or are you forgetting charlie haughey, ray burke, liam lawlor, bertie ahern. ?
These were the greatest cute hoors and sadly make one hard necked jackie healy rae or bev flynn look like amateurs.

And please note I did not compare padraig flynn who would belong with the aforementioned Dubs.
And someone can correct me on this, but most of these same people usually topped the polls in their respective Dublin based constituencies.

hallelujajordan wrote: »

What happens if a party does win over 'most of the electorate' . . do the other parties then 'lie down and die' ? Are you looking for a communist regime akin to China ?

Yeah Chairman Kenny will be in charge and all ffers will be reeducated in camps in Roscommon
I am putting my name in for a camp commandant you will be glad to know.

hallelujajordan wrote: »

Fianna Fail will lose support at the next election there is no doubt, but not to the extent that people expect. Just look at Donegal. FF will probably not win the seat but they are expected to top the poll.

One can only wonder in a mix of amazement and dispair. :rolleyes:

hallelujajordan wrote: »

I expect that in the next election they will poll somewhere between 20-25%. They may go into opposition but that honestly depends on the strength of Labour (Gilmore will not walk away from the possibility of being the first Labour Taoiseach) . .

If happy Gilmore went into government after next election with ff, the tide that went out on Spring would be nothing to the tsunamia that would hit Labour in the election after next.
ff are toxic at the moment. :mad:

hallelujajordan wrote: »

I hope we do go into opposition, and when we do we will regroup, re-evaluate our ideals and prepare to offer the Irish people an alternative to the likely FG-LAB coalition.

What Ideals ?? :eek:
You are having a laugh now.

Theft, fraud, incompetence, wastage, lying, protection and promotion of cronies are not ideals.
Perhaps you mean get some ideals ? :rolleyes:

Liam Byrne

hallelujajordan wrote: »

Liam, you have come up with some doozies in the past but this has to be the most farcical argument I have seen from you . . You are suggesting that 'most of the electorate' have to want you to exist in order for you to have a right to exist ! You do realise that no political party in Ireland can pass this acid test of yours.

Take the statement in context....I was not stating my argument but exposing the idiocy of an FF supporter by reversing THEIR argument.

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, but I do find it strange that you chose not to quote the next paragraph, which gave the context of the bit that you quoted.

Liam Byrne wrote: »

I mean, the fact that almost half of the electorate voted FF is trotted out often enough as a mechanism to shut the rest of us up, so why does the same (reversed) logic not apply now ?

i.e. FF supporters use this line to claim that when a "majority" wins (and it suits FF) then the wishes of that majority take precedence. Then, when it doesn't suit them, it's somehow completely irrelevant with dismissals like "boards is full of ABFF".

It's along the lines of the "bailout" arguments; I would have no interest in ANY bailout, but now that FF have chosen to bailout a select few, I would support anyone's claims that - NOW - equality should ensure that EVERYONE would be bailed out.

So my posts don't always reflect my own views.

The "doozies" are usually the fact that someone else's argument - when reversed by me to point out their hypocrisy - is flawed.

Maybe not always the case - because I'm not perfect - but definitely in this case and a few others.

hallelujajordan

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Take the statement in context....I was not stating my argument but exposing the idiocy of an FF supporter by reversing THEIR argument.

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, but I do find it strange that you chose not to quote the next paragraph, which gave the context of the bit that you quoted.



i.e. FF supporters use this line to claim that when a "majority" wins (and it suits FF) then the wishes of that majority take precedence. Then, when it doesn't suit them, it's somehow completely irrelevant with dismissals like "boards is full of ABFF".

It's along the lines of the "bailout" arguments; I would have no interest in ANY bailout, but now that FF have chosen to bailout a select few, I would support anyone's claims that - NOW - equality should ensure that EVERYONE would be bailed out.

So my posts don't always reflect my own views.

The "doozies" are usually the fact that someone else's argument - when reversed by me to point out their hypocrisy - is flawed.

Maybe not always the case - because I'm not perfect - but definitely in this case and a few others.

You may like to think its a clever reversal to point out the hypocrisy of an argument but actually its straw-manning at its worst . .

- It is perfectly reasonable to point out that FF do things based on a position of majority support. For example, a majority of deputies supported the bank guarantee so it was put in place. Brian Lenihan is minister for Finance because FF formed a coalition government in 2007 based on the support of a Dail majority so he gets to make decisions like supporting the banks, even if we don't like it. BTW, this is not a "FF claim" as you suggest above, it is simply democracy in action.

- It is not at all reasonable for you to suggest that the reverse of this argument is that without the support of the majority of the electorate, the FF party should cease to exist.

Sometimes your analogies work and in the past you have observed and correctly pointed out hypocrisy . . . in this case, you have not.