Paddy Power Gold Cup

UrbanSea

Cheltenham has its first meeting of the new National Hunt season and I can't wait for the PP Gold Cup.
I'm going with the jolly here,think Long Run is a definite Gold Cup contender ahead of March and I'm going to sink my teeth into 7/2.
Opinions?

cson

If connections see Long Run as genuine Gold Cup material would you want him wound up this early in the season though? I think not; it may be a case of he goes out to run his race and if its good enough then great but I'd be surprised was he asked any serious questions from the pilot.

Juwwi

I was looking at Catch Me earlier today at 10/1.

He was given a run last week against Captain Cee Bee but was'nt given a hard race at all.

His form at leopardstown last xmas against weapons amnesty looks good now and he only has 10st 5 in this race,not sure if they will go up much.

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?race_id=516108&r_date=2010-11-13&horse_id=639748



I can see why Long Run is appealing but the jockey is the problem for me.

cson

Ah yes; Sam Waley-Deadweight.

MikeB94

Ya think i would be in oppsosing camp for Long Run aswell, As said earlier i think Catch Me has to be a smashing E/W bet at 10s

Morgans

cson wrote: »

If connections see Long Run as genuine Gold Cup material would you want him wound up this early in the season though? I think not; it may be a case of he goes out to run his race and if its good enough then great but I'd be surprised was he asked any serious questions from the pilot.

If he is going for the gold cup and the king george before that, he needs to be winning this well off his current rating.

I dont think the jockey is nearly as bad as plenty make out. A very very easy target.

If he wins, the horse is great, if he loses, its the jockey's fault.

RichieLawlor

Morgans wrote: »

If he is going for the gold cup and the king george before that, he needs to be winning this well off his current rating.

I dont think the jockey is nearly as bad as plenty make out. A very very easy target.

If he wins, the horse is great, if he loses, its the jockey's fault.

Yes Denman style in the hennessy. Long Run has to murder these off 158 75% fit if he even intends to line up against Kauto

UrbanSea

cson wrote: »

If connections see Long Run as genuine Gold Cup material would you want him wound up this early in the season though? I think not; it may be a case of he goes out to run his race and if its good enough then great but I'd be surprised was he asked any serious questions from the pilot.

Read an interview the other day and Sam Waley Cowen was very confident,felt that all the other horses would have to be top of their game to beat his horse. That claim could come in very handy aswell though when he hadn't been able to use it usually.

Colonel Sanders

Morgans wrote: »

If he is going for the gold cup and the king george before that, he needs to be winning this well off his current rating.

I dont think the jockey is nearly as bad as plenty make out. A very very easy target.

If he wins, the horse is great, if he loses, its the jockey's fault.

Not necessarily

I'm no SWC fan but wouldn't blame him for the RSA defeat for example.

If he messes up in a finish or other wise I'd blame the jockey but if the horse is purely beaten on merit or doesn't jump well it may not be the jockey's fault.

I've fancied Great Endeavour for this since March but at no stage in the Ante Post market have I felt its in anyway value

Pipe declared Long Run a "certainty" today

Morgans

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Not necessarily

I'm no SWC fan but wouldn't blame him for the RSA defeat for example.

If he messes up in a finish or other wise I'd blame the jockey but if the horse is purely beaten on merit or doesn't jump well it may not be the jockey's fault.

Yeah. That's because you are one of the sensible ones. Few will see the five pounds less that he has to carry as a balance to the jockey's inexperience. Always reminds me of the Willie Mullins four year old that fell at the last at leopardstown when ten lengths clear last Christmas. Was watching in the bookies and any other jockey would have been lynched after. Ruby goes to the stewards and tells them that the hurdle was positioned dangerously with the sun and barely a docket is thrown at the tv.

Dunguib loses at cheltenham and its the jockey's fault. Has happened for as long as Ive been watching racing. A young/conditional/amateur is always targetted when punters believe they have backed the best horse. One thing about the family connection is that you can be virtually guaranteed that the horse is ready to run for his life.

UrbanSea

Morgans wrote: »

Yeah. That's because you are one of the sensible ones. Few will see the five pounds less that he has to carry as a balance to the jockey's inexperience. Always reminds me of the Willie Mullins four year old that fell at the last at leopardstown when ten lengths clear last Christmas. Was watching in the bookies and any other jockey would have been lynched after. Ruby goes to the stewards and tells them that the hurdle was positioned dangerously with the sun and barely a docket is thrown at the tv.

Dunguib loses at cheltenham and its the jockey's fault. Has happened for as long as Ive been watching racing. A young/conditional/amateur is always targetted when punters believe they have backed the best horse. One thing about the family connection is that you can be virtually guaranteed that the horse is ready to run for his life.

Too right. If Ruby was on Dunguib the horse wasn't good enough end of.



By the way,the horse wasn't good enough,end of.

Nulty

greetings wrote: »

Too right. If Ruby was on Dunguib the horse wasn't good enough end of.



By the way,the horse wasn't good enough,end of.

I take it you won't be putting him in your TTF then?

By the way, the horse was good enough to win the Supreme if things had gone his way. Wasn't good enough to swoop the field and go round the whole course at least 5 horse widths wide

mdwexford

Few interesting ones in this.

Long Run has potential but he was poor at the festival when i expected big things and i wouldnt be going in at 7/2 here when he has major jumping issues and will be jumping faster than he ever has before on Saturday.

Catch Me is certainly interesting but the one i like most is Mad Max.

He has a superb record when fresh, was unlucky in the Arkle two out or would have been much closer and was very good at Aintree beating Somersby in a grade 2.

Nulty

My sentiments exactly md, but I'm not happy enough to back it up with a bet. Its too competitive and the prices are about right. Mad Max and Catch Me are the ones though

RichieLawlor

mdwexford wrote: »

Few interesting ones in this.

Long Run has potential but he was poor at the festival when i expected big things and i wouldnt be going in at 7/2 here when he has major jumping issues and will be jumping faster than he ever has before on Saturday.

Wrong.

Long Run won the Kingmaker over 2m at Warwick (time of 4m 4 sec, compared to 3.51 for the CC on better ground. Not too shabby IMO) in February. He jumped fine that day and he didn't jump bad at the festival either

UrbanSea

mdwexford wrote: »

Few interesting ones in this.

Long Run has potential but he was poor at the festival when i expected big things and i wouldnt be going in at 7/2 here when he has major jumping issues and will be jumping faster than he ever has before on Saturday.

Catch Me is certainly interesting but the one i like most is Mad Max.

He has a superb record when fresh, was unlucky in the Arkle two out or would have been much closer and was very good at Aintree beating Somersby in a grade 2.

I think Somersby is going to disappoint his followers this year.

And no Nulty Dunguib won't be in my ten to follow.:pac:

mdwexford

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Wrong.

Long Run won the Kingmaker over 2m at Warwick (time of 4m 4 sec, compared to 3.51 for the CC on better ground. Not too shabby IMO) in February. He jumped fine that day and he didn't jump bad at the festival either

What is wrong??

Not sure why you are comparing the times of those 2 races, they have no bearing on each other. Only thing they have in common is the distance, its not like comparing flat times or sectionals.

He has jumping issues as i said. He does not make ground at his obstacles like some of these will. Some of these are seasoned handicappers and i think Long Runs jumping will be a hindrance unless Henderson has improved him markedly over the summer.

greetings wrote: »

I think Somersby is going to disappoint his followers this year.

If shes doesnt think hes a Gold Cup horse i think shes mental.
He needs to progress though and there is no value in his current price.

Morgans

mdwexford wrote: »

What is wrong??

Not sure why you are comparing the times of those 2 races, they have no bearing on each other. Only thing they have in common is the distance, its not like comparing flat times or sectionals.

He has jumping issues as i said. He does not make ground at his obstacles like some of these will. Some of these are seasoned handicappers and i think Long Runs jumping will be a hindrance unless Henderson has improved him markedly over the summer.

Agree with you on the times, but I think Long Run is a risky jumper rather than a slow one. I dont mind risky jumpers. Slow jumpers will break you.

Nulty

I can't believe that! :mad:

I was looking at the card for the PP Gold Cup and saw the 7lbs claimer on the Sawyer and thought "all right...". saw the news on RP saying it was backed from 40/1, read a comment on the bottom saying "Hugh Taylor tipped it and they had a £1 ew" and saw that indeed Hugh Taylor has tipped it.

Thought I had a bet for about 5 seconds

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

I can't believe that! :mad:

I was looking at the card for the PP Gold Cup and saw the 7lbs claimer on the Sawyer and thought "all right...". saw the news on RP saying it was backed from 40/1, read a comment on the bottom saying "Hugh Taylor tipped it and they had a £1 ew" and saw that indeed Hugh Taylor has tipped it.

Thought I had a bet for about 5 seconds

What am I missing here?

UrbanSea

mdwexford wrote: »

If shes doesnt think hes a Gold Cup horse i think shes mental.
He needs to progress though and there is no value in his current price.

True,but when I said this year,I think next year I wouldn't write it off too quick. Think it needs to mature more than could be achieved in this year. I'd like it see go for a different race,not necessarily a Championship race,Aintree Bowl for this year maybe.Gold Cup next year.

RichieLawlor

mdwexford wrote: »

If shes doesnt think hes a Gold Cup horse i think shes mental.
He needs to progress though and there is no value in his current price.

She is saying Somersby won't get the trip. He didn't stay the 2 and a Half round Aintree so why would you think he will be a gold cup horse

mdwexford

RichieLawlor wrote: »

She is saying Somersby won't get the trip. He didn't stay the 2 and a Half round Aintree so why would you think he will be a gold cup horse

Dont judge him on that run. He took a kick down at the start and was never travelling or jumping with any fluency. He shaped like a stayer all season to me.

Colonel Sanders

20 declared. Sponsors betting 5 places each way.

premierstone

Long Run should destroy the field here with a clean round, off course you cant really say its a dead cert in a handicap but he does look thrown in and also of significance is the fact that SWC can for the first time claim a very valuable further 5 pounds, have heard word during the week that Andrew Mac and Edward O Grady are very sweet on Catch Me, and Tranquil seas victory in the Clonmel Oil chase earlier today confirms that their horses are in good nick, think i'll have a nice touch and Long Run and a RFC with catch me.

mdwexford

Turn this into the Paddy Power meeting thread imo.

Cue Card 2/1 for the Sup Nov after todays run, shocking price considering its not even mid November.

Nice looking novice chase coming up at 4.05, winner will be RSA fav.

RichieLawlor

mdwexford wrote: »

Turn this into the Paddy Power meeting thread imo.

Cue Card 2/1 for the Sup Nov after todays run, shocking price considering its not even mid November.

Nice looking novice chase coming up at 4.05, winner will be RSA fav.

What price was Dunguib at this stage. Shorter?

Cue Card should be shorter than Dunguib was at this stage anyway imo he beat some smart novices there. He could be the real deal

mdwexford

Lol cue the hype, its built right into the name....

JP Liz V1

mdwexford wrote: »

Few interesting ones in this.

Long Run has potential but he was poor at the festival when i expected big things and i wouldnt be going in at 7/2 here when he has major jumping issues and will be jumping faster than he ever has before on Saturday.

Catch Me is certainly interesting but the one i like most is Mad Max.

He has a superb record when fresh, was unlucky in the Arkle two out or would have been much closer and was very good at Aintree beating Somersby in a grade 2.

I might back Mad Max and Catch Me for an e/w

Nulty

Done Mad Max. No others for me - 5 places should see a return for the 5th in the Arkle and winner of the Totepool Manifesto. He was very good at Aintree over the two and a half. Think that is a good angle in on him. Only his second try at it over fences. I took 8/1 ew.

blueshed

thanks for the info

UrbanSea

RichieLawlor wrote: »

What price was Dunguib at this stage. Shorter?

Cue Card should be shorter than Dunguib was at this stage anyway imo he beat some smart novices there. He could be the real deal

Timeform gave him a rating of 158p. The winner of the Supreme Novice is usually around 148.
I'm going each way on Ballyfitz in the other big handicap chase.

Nulty

Believe it or not...Little Josh has been in my tracker since christmas last year

:mad::mad::mad:

My pocket is shouting right now!

Note to self: Trust your past self!

elbows666

backed dancing tornado at 40's - Thought the jockey gave him a great ride just unlucky that little josh got a soft lead going round the bend

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

Believe it or not...Little Josh has been in my tracker since christmas last year

:mad::mad::mad:

My pocket is shouting right now!

Note to self: Trust your past self!

I was sick. Having watched Long Run lose I looked up and saw that Shamiran was off in a race,a horse I have in my tracker. Typical he won.

elbows666 wrote: »

backed dancing tornado at 40's - Thought the jockey gave him a great ride just unlucky that little josh got a soft lead going round the bend

Don't think it would have made much of a difference. Dancing Tornado is crying out for further I think.

Nulty

The tracker will be the death of me! I keep fecking ignoring the reasons I put the fecking horses in. I'm sure I'd be up if I backed them to level stakes.

I'm a fool!

EDIT:
Having said that, Ghizao is one I won't be backing tomorrow. I put him in as a hurdler and tomorrows novice chase looks very spicey! Loosen My Load is on I'd like to be on there. Say he'll be a shorty though.

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

The tracker will be the death of me! I keep fecking ignoring the reasons I put the fecking horses in. I'm sure I'd be up if I backed them to level stakes.

I'm a fool!

Ah Nulty,don't be so hard on yourself please.:pac:

Nulty

greetings wrote: »

Ah Nulty,don't be so hard on yourself please.:pac:

I deserve it! I'm a fool, I tell you!

This is my outlet for frustration cause no one in my house will listen to me....your all forced to read it though :pac:

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

I deserve it! I'm a fool, I tell you!

How dramatic. Have to say thought the race was a let down,can't wait for a few beers tonight.

hucklebuck

Where can I find that tracker? I am always missing some decent horse.

UrbanSea

hucklebuck wrote: »

Where can I find that tracker? I am always missing some decent horse.

Go on irishracing.com and it's on the left. Add horses as you see fit.

HigginsJ

Nulty wrote: »

The tracker will be the death of me! I keep fecking ignoring the reasons I put the fecking horses in. I'm sure I'd be up if I backed them to level stakes.

I'm a fool!

EDIT:
Having said that, Ghizao is one I won't be backing tomorrow. I put him in as a hurdler and tomorrows novice chase looks very spicey! Loosen My Load is on I'd like to be on there. Say he'll be a shorty though.

You must be sickened!!

amiable

HigginsJ wrote: »

[/B]


You must be sickened!!

I'm sickened myself for him

UrbanSea

HigginsJ wrote: »

[/B]


You must be sickened!!

Aw now. I just posted in his log,how mad would ya be.

hucklebuck

Nulty wrote: »

The tracker will be the death of me! I keep fecking ignoring the reasons I put the fecking horses in. I'm sure I'd be up if I backed them to level stakes.

I'm a fool!

EDIT:
Having said that, Ghizao is one I won't be backing tomorrow. I put him in as a hurdler and tomorrows novice chase looks very spicey! Loosen My Load is on I'd like to be on there. Say he'll be a shorty though.

Might not be a bad thing, could be the Arkle winner yet.

Nulty

HigginsJ wrote: »

[/B]


You must be sickened!!

Nah, I knew he was going to turn into a decent chaser but I have never seen him jump a fence. How can I trust the 'past me' who put the horse in as a hurdler and then back the horse as a chaser in a very hot novice...That decision was calculated. I didn't have a bet in that race at all so no damage done.

Little Josh is one I struggled over though. I haven't actually seen his run against Weird Al yet...really should have - maybe I would have backed hiim in the PP if I had

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

Nah, I knew he was going to turn into a decent chaser but I have never seen him jump a fence. How can I trust the 'past me' who put the horse in as a hurdler and then back the horse as a chaser in a very hot novice...That decision was calculated. I didn't have a bet in that race at all so no damage done.

Little Josh is one I struggled over though. I haven't actually seen his run against Weird Al yet...really should have - maybe I would have backed hiim in the PP if I had

He didn't impress greatly against Weird Al,he should have won but tired badly and Weird Al just about picked up enough to nail him on the line.But he still did enough to dead heat,considered big time for the run on Saturday.