October Live Register

Scarab80

October Live Register Figures are out....

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/labour_market/current/lreg.pdf

Seasonally adjusted fall of 6,600 month on month with the estimated unemployment rate falling by 0.1% to 13.6%

CSO seasonal adjustments would seem to be wholly inadequate in smoothing out the impact of seasonal employment. I think it is better to compare year on year employment figures which shows a much smoother distribution



Based on the trend shown I think there will be a further smaller fall in the live register in November, maybe 1000 - 3000 and possibly in December followed by a rise in January. Of course this trend could be thrown off by reduced consumer spending as a result of the budget.

gurramok

Means nothing until we hear about employment figures as the same happened this time last year. Indications are that it is not good as income tax receipts fell again in the month. Would love to hear the emigration & FAS & BTEA stats as well.

Laminations

Looking at unemployment on its own means little these days. Care to provide the emigration figures that run parallel to these changes in the live register?

Laminations

gurramok wrote: »

Means nothing until we hear about employment figures as the same happened this time last year. Indications are that it is not good as income tax receipts fell again in the month. Would love to hear the emigration & FAS & BTEA stats as well.

+1

Got there first

gurramok

Actually Scarab, can you add a line in the graph for employment figures, FAS figures and BTEA figures as well?

Scarab80

gurramok wrote: »

Actually Scarab, can you add a line in the graph for employment figures, FAS figures and BTEA figures as well?

If you can provide me with the figures i'll add them in.

Laminations

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/population/current/popmig.pdf

gurramok

Scarab80 wrote: »

If you can provide me with the figures i'll add them in.

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/labour_market/current/qnhs.pdf

11,000 thrown onto courses recently http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0805/breaking19.html?via=rel?via=rel

http://www.education.ie/home/home.jsp?maincat=&pcategory=10861&ecategory=10876&sectionpage=12251&language=EN&link=link001&page=1&doc=49646

The 6,589 additional places provided under this scheme brings to more than 160,000, the number of places provided by this Government this year to train, and provide work experience for, those who find themselves unemployed.

http://www.deti.ie/press/2010/20100312.htm

The places to be made available through successful applicant providers are to be in addition to the 145,000 training and activation places already being funded this year through the Tánaiste’s Department.

http://www.kildarestreet.com/wrans/?id=2010-03-09.717.0

govt wrote:

My Department will this year deliver approximately 147,000 training and work experience places for the unemployed compared to the 66,000 places that were delivered in 2008.

An additional 145,000+ ! :eek:

If the training places were not available, thats 600,000 unemployed right there.:eek:

Scarab80

Laminations wrote: »

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/population/current/popmig.pdf

Only recorded up to April and is reflected in the QNHS which showed a 20k increase in the labour force during the quarter in the latest release, though i think the annual year on year decrease of 50k is probably closer to reality.

Scarab80

gurramok wrote: »

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/labour_market/current/qnhs.pdf

11,000 thrown onto courses recently http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0805/breaking19.html?via=rel?via=rel

http://www.education.ie/home/home.jsp?maincat=&pcategory=10861&ecategory=10876&sectionpage=12251&language=EN&link=link001&page=1&doc=49646


http://www.deti.ie/press/2010/20100312.htm


http://www.kildarestreet.com/wrans/?id=2010-03-09.717.0


An additional 145,000+ ! :eek:

If the training places were not available, thats 600,000 unemployed right there.:eek:

OK, obviously those figures can't be added into a month on month graph, but looking at the QNHS again I think we can get a decent idea of people shifted off the live register.

Firstly the amount of persons capable of work (i.e. over 15) in the country is 3.512m compared to 3.515m in 2008 indicating that outward migration is being offset by a natural increase in population in that age demographic.

The difference is in the participation rate which has fallen from 63.7% to 61.3% or 84,000 people from 2008 to 2010, this is probably the best estimate of off live register training, though the figures will also include a higher amount of secondary level students going to college and mothers staying at home with the kids.

ardmacha

Indications are that it is not good as income tax receipts fell again in the month.

By this do you mean that income tax is less than last year or that is it is falling this year? Of course it is less than last year, three-quarters of the difference is the governments own paycuts of its own staff. Income tax is not declining within 2010.

Scarab80

Morgan McKinley employment monitor shows job vacancies up 26% in September 2010 from August 2010, up 40% year on year.

http://www.morganmckinley.ie/news/job-opportunities-rise-26-september-10-compared-august-10

Redundancies for October down 7% from September and down 40% on October last year. Cumulative year on year comparison shows 23% less redundancies in 2010 than 2009.

http://www.deti.ie/employment/redundancy/actualredgraph2010.XLS

fat__tony

Figures mean absolutely nothing and most of the reduction is due to emigration Ill bet.

Scarab80

gurramok wrote: »

Means nothing until we hear about employment figures as the same happened this time last year. Indications are that it is not good as income tax receipts fell again in the month. Would love to hear the emigration & FAS & BTEA stats as well.

By the way income tax receipts did not fall in October. Income tax received in September was 726m and 1.262bn in October. The deviation from government targets is due to self employed income tax returns as PAYE/DD Income Tax was showing strong growth prior to this month. Income Tax returns are reflective of conditions existing in 2009 not current month by month conditions.

That said it is a worrying trend when we have the second half of income tax returns to come in next month. Though with VAT ahead of target and consumer lending through the floor there may be a case to be made that a lot of this income has moved into the black economy

ardmacha

Figures mean absolutely nothing

The unofficial motto of this forum.

Voltex

Scarab80 wrote: »

. Though with VAT ahead of target and consumer lending through the floor there may be a case to be made that a lot of this income has moved into the black economy

Your very right there.
Iv had a couple of quotes in from builders to do a straight forward extension to our home and on every occasion they have given me cash quotes. I mean they just seem to expect that these are cash jobs and dont even apply VAT to the pricee. I had the same experience with a mechanic servicing my car. When i rang him to ask what the price was and that i was sending a friend up to collect the car with a cheque...he told me he didnt accept cheques...and when I told him it was a company cheque, there's no worries with it, he upped the price by an extra 150 yoyos.

dan_d

Are there actually any statistics for the number of people emigrating? Can those sort of numbers be found anywhere? I've seen estimates alright, but nothing too concrete.

Scarab80

dan_d wrote: »

Are there actually any statistics for the number of people emigrating? Can those sort of numbers be found anywhere? I've seen estimates alright, but nothing too concrete.

All the figures are linked to in this thread.

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/population/current/popmig.pdf
http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/labour_market/current/qnhs.pdf

RichardAnd

I said this last month in a similar thread so allow me to re-iterate my point.

This isn't bad news, so why don't we leave it at that and save ourselves from the usual rant that pretty much every threat on this forum devolves into.

tails_naf

Voltex wrote: »

Your very right there.
Iv had a couple of quotes in from builders to do a straight forward extension to our home and on every occasion they have given me cash quotes. I mean they just seem to expect that these are cash jobs and dont even apply VAT to the pricee. I had the same experience with a mechanic servicing my car. When i rang him to ask what the price was and that i was sending a friend up to collect the car with a cheque...he told me he didnt accept cheques...and when I told him it was a company cheque, there's no worries with it, he upped the price by an extra 150 yoyos.

I think this is a huge issue. Does anyone have any figures (rough or otherwise) how much income tax is lost to this black economy. I know a huge amount of folks on the dole who are also doing bits and bobs, and not signing off. An estimate of welfare fraud on primetime was 2bn, but add into that cash-jobs and I'd say the figures would be staggering. A huge part of the deficit we need to make up for this years budget is probably already there, but it's been pushed underground, and we as a nation accept it to our detriment.

I wish there was a way to catch these cash-job chancers, and welfare fraudsters!!

dan_d

Scarab80 wrote: »

All the figures are linked to in this thread.

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/population/current/popmig.pdf
http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/labour_market/current/qnhs.pdf

Oops sorry:o

They're still estimated figures, but I suppose that's all we can hope for.

Some interesting numbers there - the highest rate of emigration since 1989? Albeit is a combined number of immigrants and Irish people leaving. Still - shouldn't that statistic alone ring alarm bells for the Gov?

Good to see we're still having babies though:D

senordingdong

ardmacha wrote: »

By this do you mean that income tax is less than last year or that is it is falling this year? Of course it is less than last year, three-quarters of the difference is the governments own paycuts of its own staff. Income tax is not declining within 2010.

I think he was suggesting that as a result of emigration, the govts. income predictions are falling short.

ardmacha

the govts. income predictions are falling short.

In what respect exactly are the governments income predictions falling short?

The_Honeybadger

tails_naf wrote: »

I think this is a huge issue. Does anyone have any figures (rough or otherwise) how much income tax is lost to this black economy. I know a huge amount of folks on the dole who are also doing bits and bobs, and not signing off. An estimate of welfare fraud on primetime was 2bn, but add into that cash-jobs and I'd say the figures would be staggering. A huge part of the deficit we need to make up for this years budget is probably already there, but it's been pushed underground, and we as a nation accept it to our detriment.

I wish there was a way to catch these cash-job chancers, and welfare fraudsters!!

Please don't ask me to dig it out, but I read an extract from a research paper in an American university I think, that said that in a normal functioning economy the black economy accounts for 13% of economic activity. It will always be there while we have an economy that uses so much cash, when I was buying my last car the dealer offered me money off if I paid by cash for example. It is really simple if you are a sole trader who is paid in cash to avoid paying tax, once you show something to revenue it is all but impossible to track what was actually earned.

gurramok

ardmacha wrote: »

By this do you mean that income tax is less than last year or that is it is falling this year? Of course it is less than last year, three-quarters of the difference is the governments own paycuts of its own staff. Income tax is not declining within 2010.

Less than at this time last year. I can't find stats for month and month, of course the self-employed deadlines complicate things. Guess we'll know by the end of the year.

I reckon a combination of less people at work and less earnings at work is bringing it down. Remember in the last 2 years we've been levied and that did not stop the returns falling at all.

Predictions by this govt mean nothing based on their seriously out of kilter predictions in office.

Scarab80 wrote: »

By the way income tax receipts did not fall in October. Income tax received in September was 726m and 1.262bn in October. The deviation from government targets is due to self employed income tax returns as PAYE/DD Income Tax was showing strong growth prior to this month. Income Tax returns are reflective of conditions existing in 2009 not current month by month conditions.

That said it is a worrying trend when we have the second half of income tax returns to come in next month. Though with VAT ahead of target and consumer lending through the floor there may be a case to be made that a lot of this income has moved into the black economy

Do you have a source for the month on month ones? All I can find is http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1102/financefigures.pdf where it just compares the 10month periods.

senordingdong wrote: »

I think he was suggesting that as a result of emigration, the govts. income predictions are falling short.

That would be indirect taxes. Less people around to spend their money combined with people who have money cutting back.

ardmacha

Do you have a source for the month on month ones? All I can find is http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1102/financefigures.pdf where it just compares the 10month periods.

from a post on irisheconomy.ie

only way to get them I think is via the 4 end month statment - ie end Sep/0ct 09, end Sep/Oct 10

Doing that….

Oct 2009 Tax revenue = 2,390,513,000
Oct 2009 non tax revenue = 51,794,000

Oct 2010 Tax revenue = 2,526,119,000
Oct 2010 non tax revenue = 1,480,772,000

So 2010 increase in Oct tax revenue = 135.6mio = +5.67%
2010 Increase in Oct non-tax revenue = 1,428,978,000 = +2,759%

Total increase in Oct total revenue = 135.6+1,429 = +1564.6mio = +39.1%