Predictions: 2012 Presidential Tickets

southsiderosie

I woke up this morning, and someone had posted this on my fb page:

"Early 2012 Presidential prediction: Romney/Rubio Vs. Clinton/Warner"

Not sure of Clinton will challenge her boss, but there were rumors about a job-swap between her and Biden. But Unky Joe is quite popular in the White House, so I don't think that will happen. I don't see a change there unless Biden decides to step down for personal reasons.

As for the GOP, if I were Rubio, I'm not sure I would hitch my political wagon to Romney, although this would spark a political death match within the party. Rubio has both Tea Party and Establishment support, whereas Romney is favored by the Establishment and Palin will only pull support from Tea PArtiers, although her star seems to be waning a bit. The interesting issue for him will be in 2016; having a young, energetic Hispanic on the national ticket will be very tempting for the GOP, but he will be up for re-election in Florida again.

Anyway, my prediction:

Dems: Obama/Biden. Making any changes at this point would only make things worse

GOP: Please lord, Palin/anybody. But I think the GOP establishment has ha it with the Tea Partiers, who may have cost them the senate (there is no way they should have lost NV and DE), so maybe Romney/Christie?

Any predictions?

Denerick

If the nutters get it their way it will be Rubio/Palin (Rubio is a rising star, telegenic, charismatic, handsome... a MINORITY! All very important things) If the establishment win out it will be Romney/Pawlenty or Romney/Jindal (Just to add a bit of colour to the ticket - Jindal is an absolute loon)

Dems will probably see some irrelevant challenge from the left, by some old fogey like Denis Kucinich, but there is no doubt that it will be Obama/Biden.

southsiderosie

Denerick wrote: »

If the nutters get it their way it will be Rubio/Palin (Rubio is a rising star, telegenic, charismatic, handsome... a MINORITY! All very important things) If the establishment win out it will be Romney/Pawlenty or Romney/Jindal (Just to add a bit of colour to the ticket - Jindal is an absolute loon)

Dems will probably see some irrelevant challenge from the left, by some old fogey like Denis Kucinich, but there is no doubt that it will be Obama/Biden.

Jindal was AWFUL in his response to the State of the Union address. Pawlenty doesn't exactly set the world afire either. Romney is like a man-bot, so it would be wise to pair him with someone who seems a bit more human.

I don't think Rubio would run with Palin. He's been vary careful about balancing his relationship with Tea Partiers against his long-term political ambitions. Florida has a lot of religious nutters in the Panhandle (near Georgia and Alabama, but Rubio is a South Florida Republican, and while they are often nutty (and corrupt as hell), they aren't usually as doctrinaire...except on the Cuba issue, and then all logic and reason goes out the window.

Denerick

southsiderosie wrote: »

Jindal was AWFUL in his response to the State of the Union address. Pawlenty doesn't exactly set the world afire either. Romney is like a man-bot, so it would be wise to pair him with someone who seems a bit more human.

I don't think Rubio would run with Palin. He's been vary careful about balancing his relationship with Tea Partiers against his long-term political ambitions. Florida has a lot of religious nutters in the Panhandle (near Georgia and Alabama, but Rubio is a South Florida Republican, and while they are often nutty (and corrupt as hell), they aren't usually as doctrinaire...except on the Cuba issue, and then all logic and reason goes out the window.

Cuban Americans are the one minority constituency the Republicans do well among. Rubio would definately carry Florida with him, the turnout among hispanics would go up. Across the country the Hispanic gap would narrow with Rubio, and with Obama destined to lose many of the 08 states such as Indiana or North Carolina, 2012 will be a far closer race and will boil down to the traditional swing states such as Ohio, Florida and maybe a few in the west like New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado. Rubio could carry the likes of New Mexico with a well crafted campaign.

Most importantly having either Rubio or Jindal on the ticket would put to bed the image of the Republicans as being the well off white mans party. Rubio is clever and I think the Dems really need to watch out for him. Obama was only a senator for a couple of years, lets not forget.

southsiderosie

Denerick wrote: »

Cuban Americans are the one minority constituency the Republicans do well among. Rubio would definately carry Florida with him, the turnout among hispanics would go up. Across the country the Hispanic gap would narrow with Rubio, and with Obama destined to lose many of the 08 states such as Indiana or North Carolina, 2012 will be a far closer race and will boil down to the traditional swing states such as Ohio, Florida and maybe a few in the west like New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado. Rubio could carry the likes of New Mexico with a well crafted campaign.

Most importantly having either Rubio or Jindal on the ticket would put to bed the image of the Republicans as being the well off white mans party. Rubio is clever and I think the Dems really need to watch out for him. Obama was only a senator for a couple of years, lets not forget.

Theoretically the GOP could try to pull an Obama and put Rubio at the top of the ticket. They would definitely pull Florida. And while having a Hispanic on the ticket might narrow the gap somewhat, the real crux of it comes down to the immigration issue, and Rubio would have to face down elements of his own party on that end. Plus there is a lot of tension in the Hispanic community between Cubans and other groups, because Cubans not only get special treatment when it comes to immigration, but the political leadership tends to be economically conservative Republicans who think that any social programs are an attempt by the government to instill Castro's regime in the US. The new generation is not so doctrinaire though.

As for putting to bed the party of old white men bugbear...well, I'd be interested to see the Republicans run an ethnic minority on the presidential ticket to see how the base would react, because I have been appalled by the racial abuse thrown at Obama. But Cubans and Indians are seen as "good" minorities (far more so than Blacks or Mexicans), so maybe that would come into play. That said, every rising minority star within the Republican party ends up leaving the Congress disillusioned and angry: Mel Martinez and JC Watts being the two prime examples.

Rubio is a young guy, and the GOP is a mess right now. If I were him, I would focus on my home state politics while building networks with other young up-and-coming Republicans in order to revamp the party. Why get tainted by the stink of Palin or the current leadership? Just sit back and let the blockheads continue to beat each other up. In addition, he is going to have to learn how to balance his local political interests with the wants and needs of the national party and electorate, and that is especially hard for South Florida politicians: does anybody know who Alex Penelas is today?

Lirange

The Republican primaries would be a big obstacle to Rubio.

Black Swan

2012 presidential tickets?

• Dems: Obama & Clinton (Biden will step down for personal or illness )
• GOP: Palin & Paul (Tea Party Republicans will claim mid-term victory)

southsiderosie

Blue_Lagoon wrote: »

2012 presidential tickets?

• Dems: Obama & Clinton (Biden will step down for personal or illness )
• GOP: Palin & Paul (Tea Party Republicans will claim mid-term victory)

How can they claim mid-term victory? O'Donnell and Angle cost them the senate, and it looks like Murkowski may win in Alaska. Rubio has Tea Party backing, but is very careful about allying himself with them - which is smart.

That said, I certainly hope they nominate Palin, because there is no way in hell she can win a national election. She would do more the galvanize the moribund Democratic base than any other candidate.

Inquitus

southsiderosie wrote: »

How can they claim mid-term victory? O'Donnell and Angle cost them the senate, and it looks like Murkowski may win in Alaska. Rubio has Tea Party backing, but is very careful about allying himself with them - which is smart.

That said, I certainly hope they nominate Palin, because there is no way in hell she can win a national election. She would do more the galvanize the moribund Democratic base than any other candidate.

I agree, Palin is unelectable, by far Obama's easiest route to a second term is if Palin gets the GOP nomination, here's hoping!

Inq

Lockstep

I'm backing Green/Marceux.


Or the Rent is Too Damn High fellow.

Black Swan

southsiderosie wrote: »

How can they claim mid-term victory? O'Donnell and Angle cost them the senate, and it looks like Murkowski may win in Alaska. Rubio has Tea Party backing, but is very careful about allying himself with them - which is smart.

Watch how Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, and talking heads like Bill O'Reilly and Rush Limbaugh spin the election outcome to look as if the Tea Party faction of the Republicans was the reason for the GOP wins across the country. Appearances are more important than facts in American politics.

southsiderosie wrote: »

That said, I certainly hope they nominate Palin, because there is no way in hell she can win a national election.

You are attempting to be rational when judging a large proportion of the American electorate, and what's irrational has kept Sarah Palin at the forefront of American politics since 2008.

southsiderosie wrote: »

She would do more the galvanize the moribund Democratic base than any other candidate.

Maybe... Then again they may stay at home in large numbers and not vote in 2012, just like they stayed at home in 1996 when the GOP won both Houses of Congress. If unemployment is still high, mortgage foreclosures persist, and the economy remains slow to recover, they may not show up in sufficient numbers to defeat the loud and vitriolic Tea Party Republicans in combination with other factions in the GOP.

fontanalis

With Romney is the fact that the Massachusetss health care system is more Marxist than the death panel bill an issue? Because I assume the health care bill will be a big election issue.
Also won't the Republican House control performance be an issue; they overdone the spending issue (like Obamas change) so if no progress is made then they will take flack for it.

snow scorpion

Christie/Rubio vs Biden/Clinton.

Black Swan

fontanalis wrote: »

With Romney is the fact that the Massachusetss health care system is more Marxist than the death panel bill an issue? Because I assume the health care bill will be a big election issue.
Also won't the Republican House control performance be an issue; they overdone the spending issue (like Obamas change) so if no progress is made then they will take flack for it.

No matter what political rhetoric comes out of their mouths in 2012, be they Republicans or Democrats, only one thing will determine the election, and that agrees with the old political saying: "It's the economy stupid!" If the economy recovers, unemployment declines substantially, the national bleeding of housing foreclosures minimizes, and the equity and bond markets rebound, Obama will be reelected. If not, then someone that's a registered Republican will be elected, no matter if they are qualified or not.

southsiderosie

Blue_Lagoon wrote: »

Watch how Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, and talking heads like Bill O'Reilly and Rush Limbaugh spin the election outcome to look as if the Tea Party faction of the Republicans was the reason for the GOP wins across the country. Appearances are more important than facts in American politics.

They can spin it all they like on Fox News; they are preaching to the choir anyway. And two years is an eternity in politics.

Blue_Lagoon wrote: »

You are attempting to be rational when judging a large proportion of the American electorate, and what's irrational has kept Sarah Palin at the forefront of American politics since 2008.

My rationality is based on reading the polling data. Palin is toxic to democrats and independents. She may do well in primaries, but she cannot win a national election.

Blue_Lagoon wrote: »

Maybe... Then again they may stay at home in large numbers and not vote in 2012, just like they stayed at home in 1996 when the GOP won both Houses of Congress. If unemployment is still high, mortgage foreclosures persist, and the economy remains slow to recover, they may not show up in sufficient numbers to defeat the loud and vitriolic Tea Party Republicans in combination with other factions in the GOP.

Democrats will not stay home if Palin gets the nomination. The only danger there will be if they get too out of hand and make a martyr out of her.

irishh_bob

southsiderosie wrote: »

Jindal was AWFUL in his response to the State of the Union address. Pawlenty doesn't exactly set the world afire either. Romney is like a man-bot, so it would be wise to pair him with someone who seems a bit more human.

I don't think Rubio would run with Palin. He's been vary careful about balancing his relationship with Tea Partiers against his long-term political ambitions. Florida has a lot of religious nutters in the Panhandle (near Georgia and Alabama, but Rubio is a South Florida Republican, and while they are often nutty (and corrupt as hell), they aren't usually as doctrinaire...except on the Cuba issue, and then all logic and reason goes out the window.

while thier is no doubt that rubio is a young energetic and dynamic addition to the GOP , would the republican base ( social conservatives ) go for a hispanic or a catholic for that matter as president , the base didnt take to rudi guiliani when he ran in 2008 , as tough on crime as he was or as much as he played up his mr 9 -11 immage , he just didnt meet the basic criteria of WASP , i hate to bring it down to the level of religon but religon has always counted in american politics and especially among republicans

Denerick

irishh_bob wrote: »

while thier is no doubt that rubio is a young energetic and dynamic addition to the GOP , would the republican base ( social conservatives ) go for a hispanic or a catholic for that matter as president , the base didnt take to rudi guiliani when he ran in 2008 , as tough on crime as he was or as much as he played up his mr 9 -11 immage , he just didnt meet the basic criteria of WASP , i hate to bring it down to the level of religon but religon has always counted in american politics and especially among republicans

The base hated McCain also but he still won. Huckabee was perfect for the base and won a string of conservative heartland states but lost. When it boils down to it, primary voters aren't stupid (All the time) It also helps that the individual states get delegates proportional to their population - thus moderating national candidates. The vote in California for example will earn you the same amount of delegates from 8 or 10 heartland states. So a Republican can't be all 'lets execute the gays and Muslims' when he relies on more moderate/liberal states to get the nomination.

Some may argue that the base didn't go for Romney because he was mormon, but I would say it was because he was two faced slime. Similarily the base didn't go for Guiliani because he was a facetious, awful, horrible person who ran a terrible campaign.

southsiderosie

snow scorpion wrote: »

Christie/Rubio vs Biden/Clinton.

Hmmm...interesting...

Christie and Rubio are interesting, but they are both kind of young and untested. But the delicious corruption stories that would waft out of that campaign might be worth the price of popcorn.

I love me some Unky Joe, but he's a little to gaffe-prone to be at the top of the ticket, and Hillary is not going to run behind him, especially since she survived the longest in the primaries.

One interesting veep candidate might be Clare McCaskill from Missouri. She is up for re-election in 2012 though, so they would have to make a decision quickly. But she is relatively inexperienced, and perhaps not the best running mate for Obama. Jim Webb will also be up for re-election in 2012, and he has a lot of experience in government even though he is a relatively new senator. He might have problems with women voters though, and if the GOP were smart, they would pick a female veep so they could bang him over the head with it for the length of the campaign.

I can't think of any other Dems.

kenco

On the Dem front I think they will stay as is with Obama/Biden.
No reason to make Clinton VP as she will never be elected so little to be gained from doing so.

The GOP is much more interesting. They could run Palin if she pushes for it but the Dems would love that and make mince meat out of her. More likely to be Romney for the top slot with I think either Pawlenty or Patreus as VP. So Romey/Pawlenty if I was pushed

Lirange

Denerick wrote: »

The base hated McCain also but he still won.

While he wasn't uniformly popular the base did not hate McCain. McCain tried in 2000 to win the GOP nomination whilst being the supposed independent Republican. It was only when we caved to the base that he got the nomination in 2008. You only have to observe his policy and rhetorical flip flops to spot the differences on many social issues. He was not the new, relatively inexperienced, long shot, minority candidate that Obama was two years ago. McCain was established in the party and had appeal in several regions crucial to winning the primaries. The same cannot be said of Rubio. We shouldn't use what the Dems did in 08 as a basis for what the GOP will do in 2012 however much some strategists may wish to emulate it. The conservatives tend to live up to their name in the primaries.

Denerick wrote: »

Some may argue that the base didn't go for Romney because he was mormon, but I would say it was because he was two faced slime. Similarily the base didn't go for Guiliani because he was a facetious, awful, horrible person who ran a terrible campaign.

You're giving them (the voters) too much credit. They were both perceived as East Coast Yankee republicans particularly Giuliani. Two years ago Romney was a business guru running at a time when there was a lot of anti-corporate sentiment among the populists in his party.

Denerick

Lirange wrote: »

While he wasn't uniformly popular the base did not hate McCain. McCain tried in 2000 to win the GOP nomination whilst being the supposed independent Republican. It was only when we caved to the base that he got the nomination in 2008. You only have to observe his policy and rhetorical flip flops to spot the differences on many social issues. He was not the new, relatively inexperienced, long shot, minority candidate that Obama was two years ago. McCain was established in the party and had appeal in several regions crucial to winning the primaries. The same cannot be said of Rubio. We shouldn't use what the Dems did in 08 as a basis for what the GOP will do in 2012 however much some strategists may wish to emulate it. The conservatives tend to live up to their name in the primaries.

I think your analysis is a little off. True, Mc Cain recently won the nomination for his Arizona seat because he made a dramatic lurch to the right. The fact that papers in Britain and Ireland made big hay of this should tell you just how dramatic that lurch was.

Mc Cain won the nomination in spite of the conservative base, he had the most national and broad ranging appeal of all the candidates (ie, the most electable) hence he won the nomination. He won the big, moderate to liberal states in the east and west coasts hands down. Huckabee won the conservative states very easily at a time when McCain had literally all of the momentum.

You're giving them (the voters) too much credit. They were both perceived as East Coast Yankee republicans particularly Giuliani. Two years ago Romney was a business guru running at a time when there was a lot of anti-corporate sentiment among the populists in his party.

I don't know if I agree with that. Guiliani was considered to be the bookies favourite but was doing horribly in Iowa and New Hampshire. So what did he do? He effectively gave up on these states and concentrated entirely on winning Florida, where he had a good shot of success. The tactic famously backfired, and he ended the nomination process looking like a slimy incompetant bufoon.