Down Royal Saturday (JNWine.com)

Nulty

Anyone else going? Pity Pandorama isn't taking on the big noys but looks like its gonna be a great card.

I'm a big fan of Asigh Pearl of Noel Meades who may be in the 1.55 Handicap Hurdle. He's no superstar and not one I'd bet to win but there is certainly a soft spot for him.

Obviously the big one with Kauto Star. I don't expect to see a higher rated chaser in the flesh again in my life so have to take the opportunity. Should be a walk for him unless Sizing Europes fitness helps and stamina appears.

Pandorama is among my favorite NH horses and have backed him for the GC at 33/1 (some will say I'm crazy). Should be a competitive race with See You Bob and Osana in there.

mdwexford

The 8/13 on Betfair on Kauto looks tempting.

Few quid matched at 6/4!!
Wouldnt mind 200 at that price.

UrbanSea

Trafford Lad each way at 20/1 if 8 go would be my bet.

Colonel Sanders

mdwexford wrote: »

The 8/13 on Betfair on Kauto looks tempting.

Few quid matched at 6/4!!
Wouldnt mind 200 at that price.

4/6 with Stan James

1.65/1.7 on Betfair

mdwexford

Tempting but i dont have the minerals to be loading on 4/6 shots anymore.

UrbanSea

Only 7 go,not touching the race,but Kauto deserves it. Only person I can see other than that is China Rock.

Nulty

mdwexford wrote: »

Tempting but i dont have the minerals to be loading on 4/6 shots anymore.

Put a euro on and you have a €1.67. Whats the difference how much it is?

cson

Not at Down Royal but I'm interested in seeing how Australia Day goes in Wincanton; could be the bet of the day @ ~ 4/1. Very impressive lto.

Johner

cson wrote: »

Not at Down Royal but I'm interested in seeing how Australia Day goes in Wincanton; could be the bet of the day @ ~ 4/1. Very impressive lto.

Big bet for me!

Having a large chunk on Kauto as well.

Nulty

With Barizan in there aswell? Which will lead?

Morgans

Not sure how wound up he had to be, impossible to tell if he is as good as ever from the run, but I'll say this again, Kauto Star is all stamina (and guts).

UrbanSea

Good performance,I think China Rock and Sizing Europe ran huge races too.

hucklebuck

Morgans wrote: »

Not sure how wound up he had to be, impossible to tell if he is as good as ever from the run, but I'll say this again, Kauto Star is all stamina (and guts).

The sparkle wasn't really there for me, hopefully Nicholls left some work in him for the King George

UrbanSea

hucklebuck wrote: »

The sparkle wasn't really there for me, hopefully Nicholls left some work in him for the King George

I do see what you mean,it was the most difficult race it's had to run bar the Gold Cup in the last year or two.

Morgans

hucklebuck wrote: »

The sparkle wasn't really there for me, hopefully Nicholls left some work in him for the King George

Yeah. He hasn't looked his imperious best in any of his seasonal reapparances for quite some time. The two behind him are both decent animals in their own right. I had written off the horse once before and I'd be slow to do it again just yet.

hucklebuck

I reckon Sizing Europe will be dropped back in trip, doesn't look like he stays 3 miles to me.

Colonel Sanders

Was up there today. Kauto looked no more than reasonably fit. Wouldn't say there was a ton left to work on but there most certainly is more to come. Ruby looked absolutely delighted after. A guy I know blagged his way into the parade ring & over heard Nicholls make a comment after the race, something along the lines of he wasn't fit but they were hoping his jumping would make the difference before hand and they were proved correct. Roll on the King George, can't imagine I'll get financially involved but really hope he wins 5

Nulty

Great day at Down Royal today. Excellent availablity to watch the last fence

Kauto in the paddock

Nulty

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bc8o2cymXVM

mdwexford

Ugh at Ruby breaking his leg just as the season is getting going, disgusting.

hucklebuck

Poor Ruby, I hope he gets back quickly. It was a shocking fall.

cson

Sickened for him but I'd nearly bet you he'd be back by Xmas the tough bastard.

LutherBlissett

Having watched the race, I'd have to say you'd want to be hoping Nicholls has a bit to work with re Kauto Star for the King George and the Gold Cup. He wasn't exactly imperious in victory, and he didn't seem to win with a huge amount in hand. I'm genuinely not sure if they'd risk him under top weight in the Hennessy. However, Clive Smith does appear keen to have a go, so he might be sent to it nonetheless.

I have been wondering, who is regarded as the second jockey in Nicholls' yard? ie, who will take up Walsh's rides now?

cson

Doesn't Christian Williams normally ride for Nicholls as well?

Nulty

cson wrote: »

Doesn't Christian Williams normally ride for Nicholls as well?

Not any more. Barely got a ride for him last year as far as I remember.

UrbanSea

LutherBlissett wrote: »

Having watched the race, I'd have to say you'd want to be hoping Nicholls has a bit to work with re Kauto Star for the King George and the Gold Cup. He wasn't exactly imperious in victory, and he didn't seem to win with a huge amount in hand. I'm genuinely not sure if they'd risk him under top weight in the Hennessy. However, Clive Smith does appear keen to have a go, so he might be sent to it nonetheless.

I have been wondering, who is regarded as the second jockey in Nicholls' yard? ie, who will take up Walsh's rides now?

I'm not sure,Nich Scholfield,Harry Skelton,Sam Thomas,Ian Popham all ride for him but can't see them getting the ride on the likes of Kauto,unless it were Sam Thomas.

hucklebuck

greetings wrote: »

I'm not sure,Nich Scholfield,Harry Skelton,Sam Thomas,Ian Popham all ride for him but can't see them getting the ride on the likes of Kauto,unless it were Sam Thomas.

Mc Coy will probably get the big rides, it seems to be a more and more common trend.

UrbanSea

hucklebuck wrote: »

Mc Coy will probably get the big rides, it seems to be a more and more common trend.

True,but when J.P has a horse in the same race it'll be a dilemma. Nich Scholfield on a Nicholl's runner in the graduation chase tomorrow.

RichieLawlor

Harry Skelton broke a collar bone when American Trilogy fell, so Nick Schofield will probably ride most of the week day runners, although Ian Popham rides Poquelin in the Paddy Power.

I'd say Nicholls will use McCoy and Geraghty for the big rides. McCoy got a lot of them last year and BJG has been used a lot more aswell.

RichieLawlor

hucklebuck wrote: »

I reckon Sizing Europe will be dropped back in trip, doesn't look like he stays 3 miles to me.

He stayed the trip just fine. Beaten 5 lengths by a 190 rated dual gold cup and 4 time KGVI winner is not a bad run however you look at it.

And Sizing Europe is a better horse on better ground.

Morgans

RichieLawlor wrote: »

He stayed the trip just fine. Beaten 5 lengths by a 190 rated dual gold cup and 4 time KGVI winner is not a bad run however you look at it.

And Sizing Europe is a better horse on better ground.

Yeah. If anything he will be ridden more aggressively over 3m. Looked booked for third for a lot of the way but kept on to get second. Decent effort and not completely out of the question that there is more improvement in him at the trip.

Nulty

I agree. He stays and better ground will improve him

RichieLawlor

Morgans wrote: »

Yeah. If anything he will be ridden more aggressively over 3m. Looked booked for third for a lot of the way but kept on to get second. Decent effort and not completely out of the question that there is more improvement in him at the trip.

Do you think 3 miles was always the plan or did the defeat at punchestown have something to do with it. I just never got the impression that SE wanted further

There are a lot of top class 2 mile chasers around.

Morgans

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Do you think 3 miles was always the plan or did the defeat at punchestown have something to do with it. I just never got the impression that SE wanted further

There are a lot of top class 2 mile chasers around.

Think the King George was the plan for a while. The race conditions would suit him down to the ground. Pacey, good jumping front runner on good ground. If only Kauto Star would get out of his way. Forpadydeplasterer is something similar. Maybe just lacks a bit of pure out and out speed for the very very best two milers.

UrbanSea

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Do you think 3 miles was always the plan or did the defeat at punchestown have something to do with it. I just never got the impression that SE wanted further

There are a lot of top class 2 mile chasers around.

I was really unimpressed with his run behind China Rock first time out this season,but came on for the next but we didn't see a true Kauto on Saturday,he just did what was expected of him,he was never asked to blow Europe away. I'd expect Kauto to improve another ten lenghts maybe with the benefit of a run under his belt. I'd rather see Sizing try the Ryanair this year,then maybe go on for the Gold Cup next year but the age might be an issue,trying it first at 9 especially if last year's novices were to run in it for the first time next year e.g Long Run,Burton Port.

gscully

RichieLawlor wrote: »

He stayed the trip just fine. Beaten 5 lengths by a 190 rated dual gold cup and 4 time KGVI winner is not a bad run however you look at it.

And Sizing Europe is a better horse on better ground.

Beaten 5 lengths is indeed no disgrace, especially when you consider how slowly he jumped during the first half of the race, conceding a length or more at each fence.

Colonel Sanders

RichieLawlor wrote: »

He stayed the trip just fine. Beaten 5 lengths by a 190 rated dual gold cup and 4 time KGVI winner is not a bad run however you look at it.

And Sizing Europe is a better horse on better ground.

And don't forget his jumping wasn't as good as it was last year. He was very slow at the first 2 fences in particular.

He seemed to be ridden to get the trip. I'm looking forward to him hopefully running at Kempton. Despite what connections say I just can't have Imperial Commander around there so Sizing may well be the biggest threat to Kauto on the day. I'll be monitoring the "without Kauto" market closely

mdwexford

Was a decent run out of SE but Kauto was minimum 20lbs below his best, RPR have this run as 33lbs below last years King George.

I wouldnt give him a prayer of getting closer at Kempton.

barney4001

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

And don't forget his jumping wasn't as good as it was last year. He was very slow at the first 2 fences in particular.

He seemed to be ridden to get the trip. I'm looking forward to him hopefully running at Kempton. Despite what connections say I just can't have Imperial Commander around there so Sizing may well be the biggest threat to Kauto on the day. I'll be monitoring the "without Kauto" market closely

I reckon Sizing Europe lost about 10 lengths at first 3 jumps on saturday,if he runs in King George he has an outstanding chance,as Kempton is not a hard course and so many good 2/ 2 1/2 milers have won it ,i reckon he is a first class bet there,no way could he win the Gold Cup at Cheltenham

hucklebuck

RichieLawlor wrote: »

He stayed the trip just fine. Beaten 5 lengths by a 190 rated dual gold cup and 4 time KGVI winner is not a bad run however you look at it.

And Sizing Europe is a better horse on better ground.

Do you really Kauto ran anywhere near his best, Sizing Europe will have plenty to find against the top, fit 3 milers. I would be impressed if he gets within 20 lengths of the winner of the King George or Gold Cup should he be left at 3 miles.

hucklebuck

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

And don't forget his jumping wasn't as good as it was last year. He was very slow at the first 2 fences in particular.

He seemed to be ridden to get the trip. I'm looking forward to him hopefully running at Kempton. Despite what connections say I just can't have Imperial Commander around there so Sizing may well be the biggest threat to Kauto on the day. I'll be monitoring the "without Kauto" market closely

Just back him in the normal market, Kauto may be losing his powers - hopefully Nicholls left work in him.

UrbanSea

Going on a big time double for the king george.
Kauto and France for the six nations. 6/4 and 2/1.

hucklebuck

greetings wrote: »

Going on a big time double for the king george.
Kauto and France for the six nations. 6/4 and 2/1.

Turncoat:P

Its a long time to wait to collect though, you won't be collecting any winning until after Cheltenham.

RichieLawlor

hucklebuck wrote:

Kauto may be losing his powers - hopefully Nicholls left work in him.

Just on this. Do you think that PFN would have Kauto Star fully tuned up for an egg and spoon grade 1 (relatively speaking) in Down Royal on his first run o the season. No. Apart from the fact Nicholls said himself it should be fairly obv.

There is zero evidence that KS is not as good as he was. He may not be, age catching up ect, but still there is no proof of it.

As Morgans said, people have been writing KS off for a while now but I wouldn't be so quick to do it yet.

5/2 and 3/1 were bandied about in the summer for the King George. I would be surprised if he is not odds on come the day.

hucklebuck

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Just on this. Do you think that PFN would have Kauto Star fully tuned up for an egg and spoon grade 1 (relatively speaking) in Down Royal on his first run o the season. No. Apart from the fact Nicholls said himself it should be fairly obv.

There is zero evidence that KS is not as good as he was. He may not be, age catching up ect, but still there is no proof of it.

As Morgans said, people have been writing KS off for a while now but I wouldn't be so quick to do it yet.

5/2 and 3/1 were bandied about in the summer for the King George. I would be surprised if he is not odds on come the day.

Of course not, I meant plenty of work. But as I said Kauto was not fully fit or might be on the wain.

You say of course Kauto was not fully fit but you also say Sizing Europe got within 5 lengths of a 190 rated horse. My point was Kauto ran nowhere near 190 and beat a fitter horse by 5 lengths.

Kauto could improve 20 - 30 lengths come Kempton or he might only improve 15 - 20 if he is in decline. I would not call him a cert but every non racing fan has a smash into him on Stephens day so of course he will be around evens

UrbanSea

hucklebuck wrote: »

Turncoat:P

Its a long time to wait to collect though, you won't be collecting any winning until after Cheltenham.

What d'ya mean by turncoat :pac:
I know,but seriously think that is a lovely double. Might stick a wee bit on it per week until King George day,I can see Kauto running at 11/10 or evens.

hucklebuck

It might be a lovely double but skinny odds and a long wait for your money. King George and Lexus double and you are waiting 2 days for your cash!

Morgans

hucklebuck wrote: »

It might be a lovely double but skinny odds and a long wait for your money. King George and Lexus double and you are waiting 2 days for your cash!

I cant see any point in doing doubles. If you win it on the first selection why cant you make the choice then to put it all on the second.

UrbanSea

Looks like Noel Fehily getting some of the big rides for Paul Nicholls.