Poll. Will the IMF/EU be bailing us out next year?

jank

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/mccarthy-warning-imf-is-at-our-door-2401372.html

Economist Colm McCarthy has starkly warned that the International Monetary Fund will be running Ireland by February if the Budget "fails to convince the financial markets".

So the IMF/EU bailout fund is drawing closer and closer to a reality. There are other threads here going on about the IMF and the budget etc. But this is just a simple poll to gauge the consensus if we (Ireland) will have to go cap and hand to the IMF/EU sometime next year, say May the latest

So yea or nay.. fire away.

EDIT: mods can you add a poll?

ninty9er

That is entirely dependent on the major announcements due on 8 December. I will reserve judgment until that is complete.

RichardAnd

There is an argument to be made that the IMF and ECU already have influence here. Budget cuts and tax increases are expected to reach 7 billion in december. That doesn't represent FF waking up to reality, it represents the ECB telling the two Brians what they need to do before they get their support.

Besides, I don't see what difference the IMF will make to ireland. One of the greatest criticisms of the IMF is that they destroy the life styles of citizens within the nations they have dealings with. This isn't entirely true as when the IMF arrive, the damage has already been done. All they will do here is make us live off what we have which means cuts which are going to have to happen anyway so they can do it or we can do it.

jank

ninty9er wrote: »

That is entirely dependent on the major announcements due on 8 December. I will reserve judgment until that is complete.

Of course thats the whole point isnt it. We, Ireland have one more chance to get this right... even at that some people are saying that the dye is already cast and the next budget only determines the "when" not the "if".

pablo_escobar

i would have said by september next year after the government return from their 3 month holiday.

Boskowski

I wouldn't say it's going to be a bailout as such. More a Gordon Ramsey like reorganization of the kitchen.

ednwireland

RichardAnd wrote: »

There is an argument to be made that the IMF and ECU already have influence here. Budget cuts and tax increases are expected to reach 7 billion in december. That doesn't represent FF waking up to reality, it represents the ECB telling the two Brians what they need to do before they get their support.

Besides, I don't see what difference the IMF will make to ireland. One of the greatest criticisms of the IMF is that they destroy the life styles of citizens within the nations they have dealings with. This isn't entirely true as when the IMF arrive, the damage has already been done. All they will do here is make us live off what we have which means cuts which are going to have to happen anyway so they can do it or we can do it.

+1 the strings are already being pulled by the imf/eu (and i'm sure they'd rather do it this way than come in and get blamed for the sh*t that our gov created)

johnboy_123

Well its going to be a bad bad winter

ei.sdraob

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/11/01/389506/irelands-scary-scenario/?updatedcontent=1


The Financial Times thinks that IMF/EU be here sooner rather than later based on Colm McCarthy's comments, see article above

The only factor the Government can do anything about at this stage is the budget deficit. If they do too little to convince the markets, the game is up and the Irish Government will be unable to finance itself, which means an IMF/European bailout and economic policy dictated from outside the country.

tombliboo83

The IMF/EU will be in by the Spring Imo, this Govt won't show the mettle necessary in the budget. What I resent is the drip-feed of info/suggestions that the Govt leak to us via the media in relation to cuts and taxes impending. The budget should be brought forward to give certainty to us citizens well before x-mas but this won't happen as they simply don't know what they're doing. Instead they'll wait 'til people are scared sh1tless to spend a bob before x-mas then deliver a poor budget and ultimately leave the mess for the IMF/EU to sort when we see how the Govt fails to cut and stimulate enough (a real balancing act)

Duiske

ei.sdraob wrote: »

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/11/01/389506/irelands-scary-scenario/?updatedcontent=1


The Financial Times thinks that IMF/EU be here sooner rather than later based on Colm McCarthy's comments, see article above

Not only that, but Irish Bonds were at 7.18% earlier. McCarthy's overactive gob is going to cost us millions extra in interest payments on our debt.

"An opinion piece by the (Irish economist Colm McCarthy) in the Irish press this weekend about the risk the IMF will have to help Ireland is having an impact (on Irish debt)," Kenneth Broux, market economist at Lloyds Bank in London.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE6A012D20101101

danbohan

Duiske wrote: »

Not only that, but Irish Bonds were at 7.18% earlier. McCarthy's overactive gob is going to cost us millions extra in interest payments on our debt.


http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE6A012D20101101[/
McCarthy's overactive gob,
so thats whats causing the problem? somebody tell him to shut up quick !, lucky we have outstanding people like arthur morgan and joan burton to keep the bond markets stable !!!!!!

Lame Lantern

Our present situation is manageable assuming the markets behave rationally. Comments like this from McCarthy as well as the largely incompetent, incoherent and blithely outraged gibberish coming out of our media at large will all affect us adversely.

On the strength of the numbers we're dealing with: There's no reason for the IMF to show up assuming no further catastrophe over the next 12 months and no reason for Ireland not to be able to finance itself.

Factor in the moronic claims of the opposition, and the paper-shifting, fact-free doomsaying of the media and who knows how our next bond auction will go.

To qualify all this, I've never voted for Fianna Fáil in my life and likely won't at the next election, but the sheer recklessness of the claims being made by their opponents for financial or political gain frighten the hell out of me, not because they have a basis in fact (largely the blame game does not) but because they're mortgaging Ireland as a place in which to invest for their own self-interests.

Diarmuid

Duiske wrote: »

Not only that, but Irish Bonds were at 7.18% earlier. McCarthy's overactive gob is going to cost us millions extra in interest payments on our debt.

If McCarthy can figure it out, so can the guys from whom we are borrowing billions. He's not costing us millions, our mismanagement of the economy is costing us millions

kippy

1. The ECB will be proving the funds for any bailout, I dont see actualy IMF financial involvement.

2. To be fair the European Central bank is already bailing out the nation as we speak.
There has been speculation that the ECB have been buying up bonds of Irish banks in the past couple of months in an effort to keep them (and by association) the nation afloat.
I read a report on this last week. If they are pulling the strings at this level you can be sure they will be pulling the strings at a more obvious level should the cuts not be made in the budget.

3. The timing will be key. Depending on budget etc, we will need to go to the markets as a nation again in Jan 2011. If the rates are above 7% then its all over, we'll be borrowing from the ECB to fund day to day expenditure and when that happens they are pulling the strings.

ei.sdraob

Quick someone tell McCarthy to go and kill himself :rolleyes:

Its obvious now that the (secondary) bond market doesnt believe anything coming out of Governments mouth, and to be honest no one should, they lied to us month on month > corner on corner.

Lame Lantern

Internationally, Ireland's image isn't quite as bad as we think. The bond markets were a lot more sympathetic to us at our last auction than we would have been to ourselves. While the Irish people don't believe anything the government tells us, the international community continue to do so and broadsheet news reporting on Ireland has generally been quite empathetic and laudatory compared to their reporting on places like Iceland and Greece.

In short: The bond markets are not blaming the sitting government for everything bad that has ever happened ever the way the Irish people are, so the specificity-free panic in this country is not representative of how we're being viewed abroad.

Duiske

Diarmuid wrote: »

If McCarthy can figure it out, so can the guys from whom we are borrowing billions. He's not costing us millions, our mismanagement of the economy is costing us millions

Of course mismanagement is the central issue, but the issue we are discussing here is Colm McCarthy's comments over the weekend. Fact is, interest rates on Irish bonds went up this morning, and market economists are attributing it to those comments.
Unless its fear of a huge expenses claim for a paint damaged XXL blouse, i can't see much else that happened between Friday evening and this morning that would have caused it, can you ?

ei.sdraob

Lame Lantern wrote: »

Internationally, Ireland's image isn't quite as bad as we think. The bond markets were a lot more sympathetic to us at our last auction than we would have been to ourselves. While the Irish people don't believe anything the government tells us, the international community continue to do so and broadsheet news reporting on Ireland has generally been quite empathetic and laudatory compared to their reporting on places like Iceland and Greece.

In short: The bond markets are not blaming the sitting government for everything bad that has ever happened ever the way the Irish people are, so the specificity-free panic in this country is not representative of how we're being viewed abroad.

You are obviously not reading the papers lately.

There has been a sharp turn in sentiment around August in the international media, you have the likes of NYT,Bloomberg and FT all finally realising that the sums are not adding up and are getting bigger as the truth of the situation is slowly coming out

None of these have actually bothered to do proper investigative journalism in Ireland and relied on our media for their view, somewhere it finally ticked that our media and our government are not to be trusted.

Once articles titled "can a bank bring down a country" started appearing its been a sharp slide since.

Diarmuid

Duiske wrote: »

Of course mismanagement is the central issue, but the issue we are discussing here is Colm McCarthy's comments over the weekend. Fact is, interest rates on Irish bonds went up this morning, and market economists are attributing it to those comments.
Unless its fear of a huge expenses claim for a paint damaged XXL blouse, i can't see much else that happened between Friday evening and this morning that would have caused it, can you ?

This is his exact article. Nothing controversial IMHO

Count Dooku

Duiske wrote: »

Of course mismanagement is the central issue, but the issue we are discussing here is Colm McCarthy's comments over the weekend. Fact is, interest rates on Irish bonds went up this morning, and market economists are attributing it to those comments.
Unless its fear of a huge expenses claim for a paint damaged XXL blouse, i can't see much else that happened between Friday evening and this morning that would have caused it, can you ?

Angela Merkel consigns Ireland, Portugal and Spain to their fate

Germany has had enough. Any eurozone state that spends its way into a debt crisis or cannot adapt to a monetary union set for Northern rhythms will face “orderly” bankruptcy

Lame Lantern

ei.sdraob wrote: »

You are obviously not reading the papers lately.

There has been a sharp turn in sentiment around August in the international media, you have the likes of NYT,Bloomberg and FT all finally realising that the sums are not adding up and are getting bigger as the truth of the situation is slowly coming out

None of these have actually bothered to do proper investigative journalism in Ireland and relied on our media for their view, somewhere it finally ticked that our media and our government are not to be trusted.

Once articles titled "can a bank bring down a country" started appearing its been a sharp slide since.

I think there is a distinction in tone between, say, the NY Times article and our own domestic commentary. If I recall correctly that articles states something along the lines of "Ireland was among the first to tackle its problems but its cost of borrowing has continued to increase." Compare that to Vincent Browne's articles that would suggest the government has spent the last ten years preparing the economy for slow digestion by FF's fat fatties. You won't see much mention of the rescue fund and the IMF outside our own dialogue which is what will send our cost of barrowing through the roof.

Nobody's advocating Ireland as a place to invest your pension money, but the inevitability of IMF intervention does not stand up to objective analysis. Though I take your point, increasingly international reporting is relying on the domestic press which is a problem.

Re: Angela Merkel, her move toward paleo-nationalist politics is what's generating such incendiary statements. See her comments on immigration as well. If German policy actually follows up on her rhetoric then we're all in trouble.

ei.sdraob

Lame Lantern wrote: »

I think there is a distinction in tone between, say, the NY Times article and our own domestic commentary. If I recall correctly that articles states something along the lines of "Ireland was among the first to tackle its problems but its cost of borrowing has continued to increase." Compare that to Vincent Browne's articles that would suggest the government has spent the last ten years preparing the economy for slow digestion by FF's fat fatties. You won't see much mention of the rescue fund and the IMF outside our own dialogue which is what will send our cost of barrowing through the roof.

Nobody's advocating Ireland as a place to invest your pension money, but the inevitability of IMF intervention does not stand up to objective analysis. Though I take your point, increasingly international reporting is relying on the domestic press which is a problem.

Re: Angela Merkel, her move toward paleo-nationalist politics is what's generating such incendiary statements. See her comments on immigration as well. If German policy actually follows up on her rhetoric then we're all in trouble.

Yes Ireland was held up as an example in non-Irish media
but as I said there has been a distinct (we turned a corner ? ) change around August, actually around the time of the S&P report I believe and news that Anglo would cost even more yet again.
I haven't seen a positive article about Ireland in a long time now, it really is worrying.


You also have to realise the non-Irish media look at Ireland with different eyes/perspective and dont have FF's boots to lick (or restrained by our prehistoric blasphemy/libel laws), the fact that they are not buying our bull**** might be reflected in the market sentiment. But then again correlation is not causation.

Lame Lantern

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Yes Ireland was held up as an example in non-Irish media
but as I said there has been a distinct (we turned a corner ? ) change around August, actually around the time of the S&P report I believe and news that Anglo would cost even more yet again.
I haven't seen a positive article about Ireland in a long time now, it really is worrying.

I'm not talking about the early coverage of Ireland as a neocon bastion of effective problem-solving, but rather about the differences between domestic coverage and the international point of view currently. What I'm trying to illustrate is that domestically, Ireland is an out-of-control death machine helmed by an incompetent government itself led by baby-eating man-mammoths. Internationally, the view is of a country in very serious trouble that has taken very decisive action that may not be working as hoped.

Now, the latter vision is not flattering, but in terms of our ability to borrow at reasonable rates is an easier sell than the former.

You also have to realise the non-Irish media look at Ireland with different eyes/perspective and dont have FF's boots to lick (or restrained by our prehistoric blasphemy/libel laws), the fact that they are not buying our bull**** might be reflected in the market sentiment. But then again correlation is not causation.

I don't think anybody's licking FF's boots. In fact, I think FF are being savaged so thoroughly that they have resigned themselves to losing the next election and aren't even bother to engage the field of public opinion.

But importantly, we are in much bigger trouble if the international market starts listening to the opposition and the at-large media.

jank

Lame Lantern wrote: »

But importantly, we are in much bigger trouble if the international market starts listening to the opposition and the at-large media.

You really think the bond market are going to listen to the opposition when they have no legislative mandate? Or the at-large domestic media like RTE/FF lite or INM..... come down from your ivory tower.

femur61

Lame Lantern wrote: »

Our present situation is manageable assuming the markets behave rationally. Comments like this from McCarthy as well as the largely incompetent, incoherent and blithely outraged gibberish coming out of our media at large will all affect us adversely.

But I was reading on another Irish polictics board, somebody was saying he was out for a drink with his mates and they thought he was deluded thinking we were going to have an austere budget. A friend of mine yesterday doesn't think things are as bad as people are saying!

So, maybe we need headlines like this to shock people into reality. I know people still living on credit not for the basics, but to fund a semie lavish lifestyle.

ei.sdraob

Lame Lantern wrote: »

Internationally, the view is of a country in very serious trouble that has taken very decisive action that may not be working as hoped.

Once again this was the case especially early this year (coincidentally? the bonds where at low point then)

The S&P report around August put the banking failure at a staggering 90 billion euro

Since then things have been on the slide and the rhetoric in the media has changed. We are no longer considered as a country which made a right decision but got it wrong. They realise that our cuts so far have been much noise but little substance (most of mccarthy's recommendations ignored). There is also a realisation that no one knows how deep the banking holes go, there is no end in sight for house drops and the deeper they get the more in trouble the banks get, the more money we are asked to handover.


Just take bloomberg as an example an look thru the articles on Ireland:

2 Nov 2010 - Ireland May Have One Month to Stave Off Bailout: Euro Credit
1 Nov 2010 - Ireland Leads Rise in Sovereign Credit Swaps on Burden Sharing
1 Nov 2010 - Irish Bonds Decline, Driving Yield Premium Over German Bunds to a Record

“The biggest worry about Ireland is the growth picture,” said Nick Stamenkovic, a fixed-income strategist at RIA Capital Markets Ltd. in Edinburgh. “Investors are fretting that the actual growth implication of these fiscal consolidation measures may make it more difficult for budget-deficit targets to be achieved.”

From the horses mouth, there is fear since there is so much uncertainty around Irelands growths prospect. Obviously the likes of ESRI who got all the headlines before have been proven to be wildly optimistic and off the mark with all their predictions.

There is no trust and no confidence, and this fear has spread beyond Ireland to people who buy our debt.

Once again whether the media is responsible is debatable, it seems to me most are trying to play catchup to fast moving events and are not the cause.

Unlike the Indo and IT who in the past have shown to spin and now lately troll with their articles, the international media doesnt care for our little gombeens and national obsession with property (something that our papers made alot of money from in boom...)


Even the optimistic articles dont do us good

The International Monetary Fund in Washington forecast the world economy will expand 4.2 percent next year, compared with 4.8 percent in 2009. Though slowing, that’s still better than the average of 3.69 percent from 2000 through 2008.

Government bonds have returned 5.6 percent this year, versus 0.9 percent in all of 2010. Of the major economies, the gains have been led by the 8.3 percent return for Treasuries, followed by U.K. gilts at 7.9 percent, German bunds at 7.7 percent and Japanese bonds at 2.9 percent.

Greece, Ireland and Portugal are the exceptions, with each losing at least 5 percent and showing there are limits to investors’ tolerance for budget deficits.

ei.sdraob

to anyone interested

Colm McCarthy has responded and posted his full article over at irisheconomy.ie

The front-page lead in yesterday’s Sunday Independent consisted of a souped-up summary by a journalist of an article I wrote for the same edition. The souped-up version has got some coverage today on Alphaville, Bloomberg etc.

the groutch

don't see it happening, whoever is in charge next year will make the necessary cuts to keep the wolves from the door

although there maybe some upsides to it, as the IMF would do alot of what FF are afraid or too cronie-ist to do, eg. tear up the croke park agreement, get rid of loads of the quangos, close all the tax-breaks and loopholes, etc.

dan_d

There's a lot of if's and but's here.

What's the point? Wait and see. We can hypothesise all we want, but nobody can really tell what's going to happen and few of us will agree.

ravendude

the groutch wrote: »

don't see it happening, whoever is in charge next year will make the necessary cuts to keep the wolves from the door

although there maybe some upsides to it, as the IMF would do alot of what FF are afraid or too cronie-ist to do, eg. tear up the croke park agreement, get rid of loads of the quangos, close all the tax-breaks and loopholes, etc.

It's not really "next year" but rather early in the new year (January probably) that is the danger time for the IMF.
Whoever is in charge next year is irrelevent, - this budget is make or break time now. If we can't borrow at a rate thats not prohibitive (the current rate of 7% is basically prohibitive) in the new year, we need to go cap in hand to the IMF/EU.
Its looking now that the international markets simply don't trust us and our numbers, in the same way they didn't trust Greece and their numbers. Doing the right thing in the budget may not even be enough.

So, to put it this way, - as it stands, at the current bond rates we will be resorting to the IMF/EU for a bailout in the new year unless bond rates drop substantially after the December budget from their current rates.
This is not a medium term or even a scenario of months, we're talking weeks now.

mrgaa1

Unfortunately everything is pointing towards some sort of IMF involvement. I think the budget is going to be delivered early as in end of November with new measures being brought in from beginning of Decemmber. The backs are fairly and squarely to the wall here. I was previously against a general election - now I think the need for one ASAP is paramount. The problem is there isn't any other party that is standing out as potential leaders.
So perhaps the IMF will be here before the end of the year and will impose the necessary measures - they will tear up Croke Park agreement, wages will be slashed, taxes will go up and cuts will happen.
I know that politicians on opposite side can't be seen to being in agreement but there are some clearly undeniable facts: we are broke and we have to cut public expenditure. Stong leadership would have pushed the unions to one-side and implemented the changes. The McCarthy report - and we can all argue over its merits - suggested many practical changes - but not enough has been implemented.
The IMF may look at that report and use some of it and do their own thing. They will "advise" the sitting government on what to do.
Cut wages, cut quango's, raise some taxes, and put the unions to one-side. Take a couple of billion out of the pension reserve and use for creating jobs, creating work, educating our young people.
Perks from years ago must go but education and health are very,very important to this country as we spend the next 25-30 years paying back what is owed. Without industry, without education and without health we will not be able to do it.
The UK had the IMF in in 1974 - no shame in having them in.

IMFnow

The problem thus far has been that FF has been looking after their own interests first, how come we are one of the smallest nations in the world, yet our TDs earn more than Obama - President of THE mightiest nation? Secondly, our University deans and professors all earn more than their counter parts anywhere in the world, same goes for judges and senior staff in government departments.

FF has done absolutely nothing for you and me. Our wages have come down drastically - private sector far more than public - we now earn approximately 1/3 to 1/2 less money than 2 years ago.

YET - FF has done nothing to reduce the cost of living in this country, the following needs to be looked at immediatelly:

1) If the wages and perks of TDs, judges and Deans were to be cut a (TDs down to €70 all in) we would save a lot of money - then remove all the golden parrachutes and state pensions,
2) Then start looking at cost of living items for us, basic foods, heating, electricity, Insurance, banking, mortgages etc to reduce them to match the wage levels at present
2) Force all supermarket chains to declare their profits locally, Tesco is making Millions off us and because they dont have to declare it here (and FF wont do anything to force them)
3) Insurance companies keep increasing their rates, yet it is a captive market, we all HAVE to have car insurance - audit them and allow only a certain amount of growth within each company.

And if the big insurance companies and supermarkets leave? Good for them, but better for us, There will always be someone to take up the slack.

We are all so scared of the IMF, they will only do what self serving FF will not do, do you really think Mr Cowen lies awake at night over you and me? No €10k parties are at the top of his agenda - and when he loses power his wages will drop from €5k a week to €4999.00 - he will not feel and suffer what we are going through - nor any of his cronies that wrecked this country.

BRING ON THE IMF, at least then we will all sing off the same hymn sheet.

RichardAnd

IMFnow wrote: »

The problem thus far has been that FF has been looking after their own interests first, how come we are one of the smallest nations in the world, yet our TDs earn more than Obama - President of THE mightiest nation? Secondly, our University deans and professors all earn more than their counter parts anywhere in the world, same goes for judges and senior staff in government departments.

FF has done absolutely nothing for you and me. Our wages have come down drastically - private sector far more than public - we now earn approximately 1/3 to 1/2 less money than 2 years ago.

YET - FF has done nothing to reduce the cost of living in this country, the following needs to be looked at immediatelly:

1) If the wages and perks of TDs, judges and Deans were to be cut a (TDs down to €70 all in) we would save a lot of money - then remove all the golden parrachutes and state pensions,
2) Then start looking at cost of living items for us, basic foods, heating, electricity, Insurance, banking, mortgages etc to reduce them to match the wage levels at present
2) Force all supermarket chains to declare their profits locally, Tesco is making Millions off us and because they dont have to declare it here (and FF wont do anything to force them)
3) Insurance companies keep increasing their rates, yet it is a captive market, we all HAVE to have car insurance - audit them and allow only a certain amount of growth within each company.

And if the big insurance companies and supermarkets leave? Good for them, but better for us, There will always be someone to take up the slack.

We are all so scared of the IMF, they will only do what self serving FF will not do, do you really think Mr Cowen lies awake at night over you and me? No €10k parties are at the top of his agenda - and when he loses power his wages will drop from €5k a week to €4999.00 - he will not feel and suffer what we are going through - nor any of his cronies that wrecked this country.

BRING ON THE IMF, at least then we will all sing off the same hymn sheet.

I advise you to read up on the IMF really do and then come back and look at your post.

danbohan

RichardAnd wrote: »

I advise you to read up on the IMF really do and then come back and look at your post.

everybody knows what the IMF is and does or they should know , at least the IMF wont be working on vested interests or protecting their own like our politicians are

RichardAnd

danbohan wrote: »

everybody knows what the IMF is and does or they should know , at least the IMF wont be working on vested interests or protecting their own like our politicians are

From reading these boards, it's quite clear that most people have only a tentative understanding of the IMF. Most people seem to see them as either some sort of global economic police force who are on their way to Ireland to punish the powers that be for their wrongs. Others seem to see them as predators who destroy healthy nations all for the sake of the all mighty dollar.

As I've said before, the IMF have no power to tell a country to do anything, they can only advise and set requirements that must be met in order for them to help the ailing economy. How these are to be met will still be the prerogative of the nation in question so whilst the IMF will have some sway over things, the cuts will still be coming from the same people as they are currently. Hence, anyone who thinks the IMF will right wrongs should reconsider their views.

ardmacha

how come we are one of the smallest nations in the world, yet our TDs earn more than Obama - President of THE mightiest nation? Secondly, our University deans and professors all earn more than their counter parts anywhere in the world,

This isn't true. Why do people here continually post untruths, out of date data and exaggerations. There is a case to be made, but it is not helped by this.

Our wages have come down drastically - private sector far more than public - we now earn approximately 1/3 to 1/2 less money than 2 years ago.

This also isn't true. An individual's wages may have fallen by 1/3, but wages as a whole have not. Wages in some sectors rose in 2009.

Force all supermarket chains to declare their profits locally, Tesco is making Millions off us and because they dont have to declare it here

Now there is an idea. I'd introduce a higher rate of corporation tax for profits in Ireland in such sectors that substantially exceed the international norm.

danbohan

RichardAnd wrote: »

From reading these boards, it's quite clear that most people have only a tentative understanding of the IMF. Most people seem to see them as either some sort of global economic police force who are on their way to Ireland to punish the powers that be for their wrongs. Others seem to see them as predators who destroy healthy nations all for the sake of the all mighty dollar.

As I've said before, the IMF have no power to tell a country to do anything, they can only advise and set requirements that must be met in order for them to help the ailing economy. How these are to be met will still be the prerogative of the nation in question so whilst the IMF will have some sway over things, the cuts will still be coming from the same people as they are currently. Hence, anyone who thinks the IMF will right wrongs should reconsider their views.

ok , so are you telling me the imf would allow the nonsense that is the croke park agreement to stand ? they wont , but our politicians will .

recedite

Count Dooku wrote: »

Angela Merkel consigns Ireland, Portugal and Spain to their fate

Excellent article that. Angela Merkel's comments may drive up the cost of borrowing for PIGS in the short term, but her point that only an orderly debt forgiveness mechanism can save us from perpetual debt is well made. Her recognition of moral hazard implies that she would never have sanctioned The Great Swindle that FF put into operation here.

Angela Merkel wrote:

We must keep in mind the feelings of our people, who have a justified desire to see that private investors are also on the hook, and not just taxpayers

I for one welcome the imminent arrival of our new insect teutonic overlords in the new year.

T runner

The absolute indifference of the markets to the budget preview indicates that the crises has progressed beyond what is solvable by the budget.

The fact that the EU will haircut creditors in any bailout in combination with fears that mortgage defaults next year means more state injections in banks means that there will be no investment in Irish paper.

We cant pay what we owe: the markets know this but the government continues to equate private creditors to bank, albeit senior bond holders with those who lend to sovereigns. They are not the same.

The Government needs to start getting vicious. Cherry pick the senior bond holders to guarntee. To hell with the rest.

This sign of strenght to the market might save us.

Cowens soundings of "market attacks" etc are reminiscent of Dick Fulds (CEO) dying throes as Lehmans went down.

Sandvich

RichardAnd wrote: »

There is an argument to be made that the IMF and ECU already have influence here. Budget cuts and tax increases are expected to reach 7 billion in december. That doesn't represent FF waking up to reality, it represents the ECB telling the two Brians what they need to do before they get their support.

Besides, I don't see what difference the IMF will make to ireland. One of the greatest criticisms of the IMF is that they destroy the life styles of citizens within the nations they have dealings with. This isn't entirely true as when the IMF arrive, the damage has already been done. All they will do here is make us live off what we have which means cuts which are going to have to happen anyway so they can do it or we can do it.

That's not true, studies have been done showing they do harm growth. Austerity measures can ultimately cripple an economy, people are under the illusion that any cutbacks are good cutbacks.

ei.sdraob

Sandvich wrote: »

people are under the illusion that any cutbacks are good cutbacks.

Considering that the real wasters are being prevented from being fired in PS due to Croke park, the PS is entirely to blame for any unneeded cutbacks in the rest of budget such as equipment and infrastructure.

doc_17

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Considering that the real wasters are being prevented from being fired in PS due to Croke park, the PS is entirely to blame for any unneeded cutbacks in the rest of budget such as equipment and infrastructure.

In fairness those people couldn't be fired before the croke park agreement either. But I agree with your point.

kippy

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Considering that the real wasters are being prevented from being fired in PS due to Croke park, the PS is entirely to blame for any unneeded cutbacks in the rest of budget such as equipment and infrastructure.

Nothing to do with poor leadership by the government of our time?
Nice.

ei.sdraob

kippy wrote: »

Nothing to do with poor leadership by the government of our time?
Nice.

Blame them too and their social partnership back-scratching.

Sandvich

They should deal with the higher earners in the public service, there are some being paid 100,000 a year to do nothing. But on the other end of the spectrum, you have people working hard jobs in hospitals and the like(my mum) who have already seen a massive decrease in their wages.

The government is trying to take it out on everyone, which actually isn't fair or plausible in this case. So it's not surprising there's a lot of union pressure against cutbacks.

We can afford to pay the lower earners in the public sector. We cannot afford to pay the higher earners. We should leave the people at the bottom alone and take from the top. Sure it'll piss off the Freebertarians, but they're looking for public service cuts anyway, so here they are.

kippy

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Blame them too and their social partnership back-scratching.

And the people who voted them in and supported them (and still remain to by the looks of it)?

IMFnow

ardmacha wrote: »

This isn't true. Why do people here continually post untruths, out of date data and exaggerations. There is a case to be made, but it is not helped by this.



This also isn't true. An individual's wages may have fallen by 1/3, but wages as a whole have not. Wages in some sectors rose in 2009.



Now there is an idea. I'd introduce a higher rate of corporation tax for profits in Ireland in such sectors that substantially exceed the international norm.

You are correct; my statement about our politicians was inaccurate, I have now taken the time to research this properly, see table below, with grateful thanks to OCEANFROG on politics.ie

I will certainly be comparing the salary of our TDs vs their counter parts in the rest of the world and post that soon.

However, may I say one thing about the "league" table below? Most of the countries have between 5 and 10 times our population, some (USA) nearly 100 times our population - I sincerely believe that my statement does have some merrit? Irish Population (CSO.ie) 4.5m, UK Population (trueknowledge.com) 61.1m difference in wages; Mr. Cowen + 13%, difference in population Ireland only 13.5% of UK

Brian Cowen is still the worlds 4th highest paid politician at $342,400
These figures are from May 2010 ... Link

1. Lee Hsien Loong, Prime Minister, Singapore
Annual salary: $2.75 million

2. Donald Tsang, Chief Executive, Hong Kong
Annual salary: $515,300

3. Barack Obama, President, United States
Annual salary: $400,000

4. Brian Cowen, Taoiseach, Ireland
Annual salary: $342,400

5. Nicolas Sarkozy, President, France
Annual salary: $319,800

6. Kevin Rudd, Prime Minister, Australia
Annual salary: $315,800

7. Stephen Harper, Prime Minister, Canada
Annual salary: $309,800

8. Jacob Zuma, President, South Africa
Annual salary: $305,800

9. Angela Merkel, Chancellor, Germany
Annual salary: $303,800

10. Gordon Brown (now David Cameron), Prime Minister, United Kingdom
Annual salary: $300,400

IMFnow

RichardAnd wrote: »

From reading these boards, it's quite clear that most people have only a tentative understanding of the IMF. Most people seem to see them as either some sort of global economic police force who are on their way to Ireland to punish the powers that be for their wrongs. Others seem to see them as predators who destroy healthy nations all for the sake of the all mighty dollar.

As I've said before, the IMF have no power to tell a country to do anything, they can only advise and set requirements that must be met in order for them to help the ailing economy. How these are to be met will still be the prerogative of the nation in question so whilst the IMF will have some sway over things, the cuts will still be coming from the same people as they are currently. Hence, anyone who thinks the IMF will right wrongs should reconsider their views.

I am a bit confused.
If the IMF have no power to tell anybody what to do, why then is everybody so scared of them?

All I was saying is the IMF will make the tough decissions that FF does not want to make and make sure they will be implemented, yes, the politicians can refuse suggestions by the IMF, but then .... they get no money either.....
and
I suppose being the party that led this country from boom to IMF will not go down too well on their CVs will it? Is that not the main concern - and now they are scaremongering us to fear the IMF?

femur61

RichardAnd wrote: »

As I've said before, the IMF have no power to tell a country to do anything, they can only advise and set requirements that must be met in order for them to help the ailing economy. How these are to be met will still be the prerogative of the nation in question so whilst the IMF will have some sway over things, the cuts will still be coming from the same people as they are currently. Hence, anyone who thinks the IMF will right wrongs should reconsider their views.

I know the IMF have no legislative power but one way they will implement power is by not lending to us, or the powers to be will not lend to us unless we implement their recomendations.

The same people won't be in power. Cowen and his cronies will be gone soon.

Gustav Constintine (sp:o) said on news that the cuts don't even go ddp enough.