Saturday 16th Prem Previews

blocparty

Im currently in Kerala in Southern India for my brothers wedding. Between now and my last blog post my charger for my laptop decided to break on me so Im lucky to get this post out to you before the weekends games, thanks to the lovely staff at the Tea Bungalow in Cochi.

Anyway enough of the chit chat as my time here is limited and I have to be up in 7 hours time for a 4 hour trek to Munnar.

There is no early game this weekend so its mostly 3pm kick offs this Saturday.

The first of which is Arsenal v Birmingham:

Arsenal are obvious favourites for this game but they were upset last time at home from a team from the midlands. Birmingham will come with a very different game plan to that of West Brom which was open and expansive. Birmingham will try and keep it tight which could frustrate Arsenal but Birmingham simply wont play Arsenal at their own game and out score them like West Brom did.

Looking at the stats:

Bookmakers Probability

76% v 17% v 7% – Arsenal

Success Rate:

57% v 42% – Arsenal, implies 76% home win

Home and Away Success Rate

66% v 33% – Arsenal, implies 83% home win

Position v Position

73% v 22% v 5% – Arsenal

Average Goals per game:

3.57 v 2.42

Home and Away goals per game:

5.33 v 4

Over or under:

Arsenal all games – over 57%
Arsenal home games – over 100%

Birmingham all games – over in 43%
Birmingham away games – over in 100%

Average margin of victory/defeat

Arsenal +1
Birmingham -0.43

Home and away margin of victory/defeat:

Arsenal +2.67
Birmingham + 0.67

Always hard to predict a game after an international game but I dont think Arsenal represent good value at their current price so I would avoid making a bet on them. Birmingham were last years form Handicap side but have made an indifferent start so I would avoid that bet as well

Odds in Asia see Arsenal -1.5 which is about right for this game but Im not convinced of either team with that handicap especially given the current prices. The overs in Asia have fallen from over 3.25 to 3 so they are expecting overs but not as much as initailly thought.

The over 2.5 goal bet @ 1.57 which is a short price but I expect goals

Bolton v Stoke:

This is a clash of two similar teams. Both are teams that are aggressive and are up for a fight but both teams are trying to play more attractive football. This will be a tight game as its an evenly matched contest in my opinion.

Looking at the stats:

Bookmakers Probability

43% v 30% v 27% – Bolton

Success Rate:

50% v 50% – Tie but implies home win in 59% of games

Home and Away Success Rate

50% v 33% – Bolton, implies 75% home victory

Position v Position

36% v 30% v 34% – Bolon

Average Goals per game:

3.0 v 2.43

Home and Away goals per game:

2.67 v 2.67

Over or under:

Bolton all games – over 57%
Bolton home games – over 67%

Stoke all games – over in 57%
Stoke away games – over in 67%

Average margin of victory/defeat

Bolton -0.14
Stoke -0.14

Home and away margin of victory/defeat:
Bolton 0
Stoke -0.67

Fulham v Tottenham:

A London derby that resulted in a rather boring 0-0 draw in the same fixture last season. Fulham have been draw specialists while Tottenham have failed to be the same goal scoring threat as they were last season with much of their scoring coming from Van Der Vaart and Bale rather than the strikers.

Looking at the stats:

Bookmakers Probability

32% v 30% v 38% – Tottenham

Success Rate:

57% v 57% – Tie, implies 59% victory to the home side

Home and Away Success Rate

66% v 50% – Fulham, implies 73% home victory

Position v Position

36% v 30% v 34% – Fulham

Average Goals per game:

2.14 v 2.0 under

Home and Away goals per game:

2.33 v 2.0 – under

Over or under:

Fulham all games – over 43%
Fulham home games – over 67%

Tottenahm all games – over in 43%
Tottenham away games – over in 33%

Average margin of victory/defeat

Fulham +0.14
Tottenham +0.29

Home and away margin of victory/defeat:

Fulham +0.33
Tottenham 0

Man United v West Brom:

United need to stop drawing games if they are to regain their title from Chelsea. West Brom play attractive football and will likely give this a go given their recent success away to Arsenal. The break might or hinder them but they will have a tough time to repeat their escapades at The Emirates.

Looking at the stats:

Bookmakers Probability

78% v 16% v 6% – Man United

Success Rate:

71% v 57% – Man United

Home and Away Success Rate

100% v 33% – Man United

Position v Position

52% v 28% v 20% – Man United

Average Goals per game:

3.57 v 3.0 – Over

Home and Away goals per game:

3.67 v 4 – Over

Over or under:

Man United all games – over 86%
Man United home games – over 100%

West Brom all games – over in 43%
West Brom away games – over in 67%

Average margin of victory/defeat

Man United +1
West Brom -0.43

Home and away margin of victory/defeat:

Man United +2.33
West Brom – 2.0

United have been in great form at home this season despite their inability to gain anything but a draw on the road! The handicap in Asia has fallen to -1.5 so I would take a small piece of that as Im not convinced by West Broms attacking prowess on the road to pay dividends against the two top teams. I would also be looking at the over 2.5 goal market as I expect it to be a pretty open game.

Newcastle v Wigan

Two teams that have pulled off some great results but have also been lost games quite badly. In a word both teams have been inconsistent. The two sides are pretty evenly matched in that sense so its a tough game to call but Newcastle are undoubted favourites

Looking at the stats:

Bookmakers Probability

53% v 28% v 19% – Newcastle

Success Rate:
40% v 43% – Wigan, Implies 54% home victory

Home and Away Success Rate

33% v 75% – Wigan, implies 21% home victory

Position v Position

45% v 29% v 26% – Newcastle

Average Goals per game:

2.86 v 2.43 – over

Home and Away goals per game:

3.67 v 0.5 – under

Over or under:

Newcastle all games – over 57%
Newcastle home games – over 67%

Wigan all games – over in 29%
Wigan away games – over in 0%

Average margin of victory/defeat

Newcastle 0
Wigan -1.29

Home and away margin of victory/defeat:

Newcastle +1
Wigan + 0.5

The stats on this game are skewed as a result of Wigans shock win at Tottenham and because of the number of games they have played away from home.

In this game Id fancy a home win. The movements in Asia seem to agree with a recent increase to Newcastle -0.5 from -0.25. The game also looks destined for an under 2.5 game but I wouldnt bet on that given both teams performances in the past.

Aston Villa v Chelsea

Villa seem to have settled well from their early season off the pitch issues and have been playing well but come up against a team that has blown away most of its opposition this season, Man City aside! Villa might have a point to prove after their humiliation last season away to Chelsea in the closing games of the season.

Looking at the stats:

Bookmakers Probability

20% v 28% v 52% – Chelsea

Success Rate:

57% v 86% – Chelsea, implies 24%home victory

Home and Away Success Rate

75% v 66% – Aston Villa, Implies 70% home win

Position v Position

31% v 30% v 39% – Chelsea

Average Goals per game:

3 v 3.57 – over

Home and Away goals per game:

2 v 3.67 – over

Over or under:

Aston Villa all games – over 71%
Aston Villa home games – over 33%

Chelsea all games – over in 57%
Chelsea away games – over in 67%

Average margin of victory/defeat

Aston Villa -0.43
Chelsea + 3

Home and away margin of victory/defeat:

Aston Villa + 1.33
Chelsea +2.33

This will be a good late kick off game. The two sides have battled well in the past and it should be a lively encounter with Villa looking to make up for last seasons embarrassment, especially in front of their own fans. Id expect Houllier to take a defensive appraoch to the game and look to hit Chelsea on the counter with their pace. Im tempted to go for Aston Villa +0.5 but was burned on them last time out v Tottenham. But i still think its a good value bet. The odds in Asia seem to replicate this with money heading towards Villa +0.5 fairly well.

Wolves v West Ham

Two teams struggling towards the bottom of the table but seem to be moving in opposite directions. Wolves havent won a game in quite some time and will look to set things straight at home. West Ham on the other hand have done well in recent games with a win over Tottenham appeasing fans from their terrible start.

Looking at the stats:

Bookmakers Probability

43% v 30% v 28% – Wolves

Success Rate:

43% v 43% – Tie, imples 59% home win

Home and Away Success Rate

50% v 17% – Wolves, implies 85% home win

Position v Position

49% v 28% v 22% – Arsenal

Average Goals per game:

2.71 v 2.71 – over

Home and Away goals per game:

2.67 v 2.67 – over

Over or under:

Wolves all games – over 57%
Wolves home games – over 67%

West Ham all games – over in 57%
West Ham away games – over in 67%

Average margin of victory/defeat

Wolves -0.71
West Ham -1.29

Home and away margin of victory/defeat:

Wolves 0
West Ham -2.0

It will be seen as a must win for both sides as they are both fighting it out at the wrong end of the table. The two sides are well matched but you would have to favour Wolves given their home advantage.

The Asian handicap seems to agree given that its moved up from 0 to Wolve -0.25

The amount of goals in this game is hard to tell given that both teams have been more on the receiving end of goals that of them scoring so I would avoid the overs and unders market.

Again I will say sorry if I fail to post an update for Sundays games but I could well be miles from the closest source of the internets. Also all betting suggestions are made with minimum stakes in mind as the stats are skewed given how early into the season it is!

orourkeda

Chelsea have an appalling record at Villa Park. They've only won once in their last 11 visits there and even that was only 1-0. Villa also have a pretty decent home record with only 3 defeats in the last 29 I believe.

This will probably make me look like a complete dipstick on the basis of current form but I will probably lay chelsea on betfair. Chelsea are missing Drogba, Kalou, Lampard, Alex and Benayoun. John Terry is unfit but will play.

However, similar logic very nearly caused me to lay spurs away to Fulham on a similar basis so this logic may be somewhat flawed. Although the spurs game isnt over they are leading at present with about 5 minutes to play