Austerity it is then!

Banned Account

So it looks like it's time to batton down the hatches - for a while I was hanging on to the hope that they might show a bit of invention and try a stimulus approach - nope.

Looks like we're heading for an even more prolonged recession:(

I also have a sneaking suspicion that this budget is being drafted by either the EU, the IMF or both.

ei.sdraob

breakingnews.ie wrote:

There is currently a €18bn difference between income and expenditure by the Government.

lets see

18,000,000,000 / 1,859,100 = ~€9,680

I wonder how many people in employment have close to 10 grand to spare this year for our glorious leaders :rolleyes:

dan_d

It's astounding that it's taken them this long to realise that when what you take in is less than what you spend - you have to stop spending as much.
2 whole years, it's taken......with difference growing by the month.
Muppets.

Quazzie

ei.sdraob wrote: »

lets see

18,000,000,000 / 1,859,100 = ~€9,680

I wonder how many people in employment have close to 10 grand to spare this year for our glorious leaders :rolleyes:

They don't need to eradicate it, they just need to reduce it.

fontanalis

Fitzcaraldo wrote: »

So it looks like it's time to batton down the hatches - for a while I was hanging on to the hope that they might show a bit of invention and try a stimulus approach - nope.

Looks like we're heading for an even more prolonged recession:(

I also have a sneaking suspicion that this budget is being drafted by either the EU, the IMF or both.

Why would that be a problem? It's the vote buying of previous budgets that helped create the mess.
And where would the money come from for a stimulus, and you'd trust the gombeenism and nepotism to distribute it wisely? I'd say you'd have no problem with the Eu, the IMF or both ponying the cash up!

Justin Collery

Quazzie wrote: »

They don't need to eradicate it, they just need to reduce it.

Be pedantic if you wish, to get to 3% of GDP the number is then €7,333 for every worker in the country. The average industrial wage is about €33k so we would need to raise the income levy (the bit you pay on all your wage) to 25%. This will make the marginal rate about 80%.

Thats that solved so!

Banned Account

fontanalis wrote: »

Why would that be a problem? It's the vote buying of previous budgets that helped create the mess.
And where would the money come from for a stimulus, and you'd trust the gombeenism and nepotism to distribute it wisely? I'd say you'd have no problem with the Eu, the IMF or both ponying the cash up!

I think the main issue i'd have is that they would only have spending cuts on the agenda. After reading some of what Joseph Stiglitz has to say about past interventions throughout the world, it's not a productive road to go down in the long term.

Would it be better than what we have at present? Possibly, though that's not saying much - at least the cuts would be fair and objective though - regarldess though, taxing the population out of a recession is not going to be a resounding success now is it?

Wherever the money comes from (NPRF?) there is a desperate need for a stimulus package - I don't see one forthcoming.

fontanalis

Fitzcaraldo wrote: »

I think the main issue i'd have is that they would only have spending cuts on the agenda. After reading some of what Joseph Stiglitz has to say about past interventions throughout the world, it's not a productive road to go down in the long term.

Would it be better than what we have at present? Possibly, though that's not saying much - at least the cuts would be fair and objective though - regarldess though, taxing the population out of a recession is not going to be a resounding success now is it?

Wherever the money comes from (NPRF?) there is a desperate need for a stimulus package - I don't see one forthcoming.

I agree to an extent on that, but the fact is ireland has so much debt it has to cut costs. Personally I think no matter what there is a lot of pain ahead.
To use a Bill Clintonism; It's the debt stupid

_Kaiser_

From Breaking News

A Cabinet Minister appears to have let the cat out of the bag on the amount of savings the Government is hoping to make in the Budget - €4.3bn.
.
.
Social Protection Minister Eamon O'Cuiv was answering questions on Green Party leader John Gormley's proposal for an all-party approach to sorting the country's finances today, when he mis-spoke.

He said: "We will have a month…to discuss how we will achieve the 4.3…sorry… the 3% of GDP target that we need to achieve.

Well.. now we know!!

Idbatterim

Im reading about a four year plan of 7 billion in cuts, i thought we required atleast 3 billion for the next four years?

flutered

i see that he who builds quays in connemara has let slip that the budget requires cuts of 4.3 billion, that is i.m.f. butchery.

Tora Bora

flutered wrote: »

i see that he who builds quays in connemara has let slip that the budget requires cuts of 4.3 billion, that is i.m.f. butchery.

Isn't he Biffo's chief kite flyer:rolleyes:

Duirt bean lion, go n-duirt beal lei :cool::cool:

mrgaa1

okay so if €4.3billion is taken out does anyone know which year we are back to in terms of government spending? 2002?

And does anyone know that when the entire 12-16billion is removed which year we'll be back to?

We really need to put this all into context - we are not going back to mid-1980's here and we won't either.

beagle001

Coincidence Back to the future re release,might be heading back to 1985

ewj1978

flutered wrote: »

i see that he who builds quays in connemara has let slip that the budget requires cuts of 4.3 billion, that is i.m.f. butchery.

so i wasn't the only one who heard his slip up..

We will have a month…to discuss how we will achieve the 4.3…sorry… the 3% of GDP target that we need to achieve."

wonder what the other 1.3 will be coming out of?

Fitzcaraldo

Fitzcaraldo wrote: »

So it looks like it's time to batton down the hatches - for a while I was hanging on to the hope that they might show a bit of invention and try a stimulus approach - nope.

Do the very substantial deficits we are running not count as a stimulus?

If so they don't seem to have worked.

hobochris

So we are going to be paying more tax so that an inefficient public service can maintain the status quo of being better paid then their private sector counter parts at the same rate.

The PS may argue that they are receiving the same tax hikes, but they are still coming out with after tax ten the same percentage more then there private sector counterparts.

This government had the perfect opportunity to tear up the Croake park agreement when the interest rates on bonds start taking an unprecedented rise but didn't have the stones to do so. I fear we are being made debt slaves to the bond market, by the very people who are meant to be looking after our interests and not those of bond holders.

BornToKill

hobochris wrote: »

I fear we are being made debt slaves to the bond market, by the very people who are meant to be looking after our interests and not those of bond holders.

Sold into bondage?

CptMackey

These idiots in the dail dont have a clue.
You cant keep cutting and cutting and not touch their own wages and pensions.
They should really study the great depression, we are about to go into a downward spiral fuelled by cuts to appease our new colonial masters in Brussels.

Sure look at the talk about our Corporate Tax, dont see FF coming out and denouncing what the commission is saying.

Time to do what the french do and ignore the EU rules and regulations

joseywhales

So I believe with a company, during liquidation, bondholders have the first rights to any assets up until their debts are paid before preffered share holders and shareholders.

So what happens with a country anyone?

Amhran Nua

mrgaa1 wrote: »

okay so if €4.3billion is taken out does anyone know which year we are back to in terms of government spending? 2002?

More like 2007-2008. If we were at 2004 level of expenditure we'd almost be breaking even. Yes, spending went up that quickly.

Nolanger

Fitzcaraldo wrote: »

Looks like we're heading for an even more prolonged recession

We knew that already. Irish recessions don't last two years and then it's happy days. We do this recession stuff in style. We're a country where the best and bright are living abroad so this recession will last much longer than it should.

Sand

@mrgaa1

okay so if €4.3billion is taken out does anyone know which year we are back to in terms of government spending? 2002?

And does anyone know that when the entire 12-16billion is removed which year we'll be back to?

We really need to put this all into context - we are not going back to mid-1980's here and we won't either.

Estimated spend is 68 billion in 2010. We cut that by 4 billion, and we end up back...2007 where we spent 63 billion or so. 2002 is a spend of 39.975 billion which shows just how far we have to travel.

oppenheimer1

So looking for cuts, I expect all infrastructure projects to be parked except maintenance and those that are underway. Social welfare will be hit severely, as will Child benefit, probably in a similar way to the UK. Major increase in the University registration fee... or fees through the back door. PS pay is safe for now, and the 2014 deal is meaningless from Lenihan as the Government will probably fall next April/May. Tax rises all round and will bring more people into the tax net. Lower earners will be finally tapped for a contribution towards the national expenses. Corporation tax will remain unchanged, and a few cent in the name of green taxes will be thrown onto fuel. Cigs will go up marginally but alcohol will be left untouched. Vat will be left alone as the UK rate increase has reduced the cross border trade significantly.

There will be cuts in expenditure across all departments leading to a reduction in numbers. This will be through a voluntary redundancy scheme, or reductions or through natural attrition. The flexibility being demanded of the unions in the PS should see managers and back room staff being assigned a front line role in order to maintain front line services.

The €4bn + required will be achieved, but the fear is for following years when a new government is forced to look at PS pay and pensions again, because there won't be anything else to cut. Mandatory redundancies aren't an option in the PS as there is a high initial cost associated with this. Flexibility and natural attrition will probably give greater savings in the long term.

mrgaa1

Sand wrote: »

@mrgaa1


Estimated spend is 68 billion in 2010. We cut that by 4 billion, and we end up back...2007 where we spent 63 billion or so. 2002 is a spend of 39.975 billion which shows just how far we have to travel.

thanks for that. Its unfortunate that this information isn't made more public as it may make it easier for people to understand how things will be as opposed to the doom and gloom merchants out there.