Does anyone think Youmzain can win the Arc?

amiable

As the title says folks.... Please Discuss

x PyRo

This is more suited to here.

Moved from the gambling forum.

amiable

x PyRo wrote: »

This is more suited to here.

Moved from the gambling forum.

Thanks Fidel

Nulty

If he runs he can win it. I don't think he will though. Hes won one race in four years.

HigginsJ

i doubt it. he could well get 3rd but you would have to say it would be very poor Arc if he won

cson

The year Dylan Thomas won [2007] was his chance.

No chance at his age.

Nulty

amiable wrote: »

As the title says folks.... Please Discuss

Why don't you tell us what you think. You've backed him, tell us what YOU think of his chances

Goldcupfav

Dont think he has any chance of winning !! The Arc is a two horse race between Behkabad and Planteur imo. With Workforce or FAG grabbing the third spot.

amiable

HigginsJ wrote: »

i doubt it. he could well get 3rd but you would have to say it would be very poor Arc if he won

I agree it would be a poor Arc but it could be and if it were a poor Arc he might win it. It doesn't look as good a race as last 2 years at least

amiable

Nulty wrote: »

Why don't you tell us what you think. You've backed him, tell us what YOU think of his chances

I think if its a fast run race and he doesn't meet traffic trouble he has a chance. He met more traffic trouble than Sea the Stars last year and was closing with every stride at the end. Of course Sea the Stars might have gone on more if challenged but who knows. He's a consistent horse in the Arc and has won over 3mill in prize money

UrbanSea

amiable wrote: »

I think if its a fast run race and he doesn't meet traffic trouble he has a chance. He met more traffic trouble than Sea the Stars last year and was closing with every stride at the end. Of course Sea the Stars might have gone on more if challenged but who knows. He's a consistent horse in the Arc and has won over 3mill in prize money

Can't disagree with you more. Did you see Sea the Stars boxed in at the rail near the back of the field last year? Then he had to contend with horses falling back onto him for example the pace makers and having to move in and out of half the field. No other horse in the world would have won that race if in that position,if it were Youmzain he wouldn't have even gotten a place. Look at the youtube video of the Arc,that lad Rasheed from the BBC puts it to John Oxx about how unbelievable it was that he got out of that box,that 'racing experts' were saying there was no way he would be able to win it from the position he got himself into and the pulling he was doing.

UrbanSea

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Dont think he has any chance of winning !! The Arc is a two horse race between Behkabad and Planteur imo. With Workforce or FAG grabbing the third spot.

Watch out for Plumania (has already beaten Daryakana and Youmzain to win a group 1 this year) and indeed Daryakana,hugely over priced at 33/1.

amiable

greetings wrote: »

Can't disagree with you more. Did you see Sea the Stars boxed in at the rail near the back of the field last year? Then he had to contend with horses falling back onto him for example the pace makers and having to move in and out of half the field. No other horse in the world would have won that race if in that position,if it were Youmzain he wouldn't have even gotten a place. Look at the youtube video of the Arc,that lad Rasheed from the BBC puts it to John Oxx about how unbelievable it was that he got out of that box,that 'racing experts' were saying there was no way he would be able to win it from the position he got himself into and the pulling he was doing.

I didn't say Sea the stars didn't meet traffic problems

amiable

greetings wrote: »

Watch out for Plumania (has already beaten Daryakana and Youmzain to win a group 1 this year) and indeed Daryakana,hugely over priced at 33/1.

Its a bad Arc this year i think so i believe it may be a shock result.

amiable

greetings wrote: »

Can't disagree with you more. Did you see Sea the Stars boxed in at the rail near the back of the field last year? Then he had to contend with horses falling back onto him for example the pace makers and having to move in and out of half the field. No other horse in the world would have won that race if in that position,if it were Youmzain he wouldn't have even gotten a place. Look at the youtube video of the Arc,that lad Rasheed from the BBC puts it to John Oxx about how unbelievable it was that he got out of that box,that 'racing experts' were saying there was no way he would be able to win it from the position he got himself into and the pulling he was doing.

Watch the race again and see the trouble Youmzain meets in running. Just focus on Youmzain. People IMO seem to just focus on the winner.
I think Sea the stars would have still won the race if it was run another 10 times.

amiable

greetings wrote: »

Watch out for Plumania (has already beaten Daryakana and Youmzain to win a group 1 this year) and indeed Daryakana,hugely over priced at 33/1.

I'd fancy Youmzain in a match bet with Plumania at Longchamp in the Arc but anywhere else i think i'd side with Plumania.

UrbanSea

Good point actually. Wouldn't be surprised of a big run from her though

UrbanSea

amiable wrote: »

Watch the race again and see the trouble Youmzain meets in running. Just focus on Youmzain. People IMO seem to just focus on the winner.
I think Sea the stars would have still won the race if it was run another 10 times.

Can't watch it here,the connection is too bad,I will when I get home.

amiable

greetings wrote: »

Good point actually. Wouldn't be surprised of a big run from her though

As i said before it could be a surprise so wouldn't rule out Plumania at all.
There's bound to be massive traffic problems and hard luck stories in the race. I'm still hoping to be on track for it. Not sure cos of work committments yet

8-10

greetings wrote: »

Can't disagree with you more. Did you see Sea the Stars boxed in at the rail near the back of the field last year? Then he had to contend with horses falling back onto him for example the pace makers and having to move in and out of half the field. No other horse in the world would have won that race if in that position,if it were Youmzain he wouldn't have even gotten a place. Look at the youtube video of the Arc,that lad Rasheed from the BBC puts it to John Oxx about how unbelievable it was that he got out of that box,that 'racing experts' were saying there was no way he would be able to win it from the position he got himself into and the pulling he was doing.

Don't quote me on the figure as I'm going from memory, but I remember following the race closely and I believe the longest STS went was 2/1! In 9th place, against the rail, less than 4 out. Robbers.

It was an unbelievable achievement from that position, the horse probably did it on purpose himself to prove how good he is.

Worth a recap anyway:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f824CU-F3rc

UrbanSea

Yup,I can remember them saying somewhere that it went to 2/1 in running (maybe on BBC). Any other horse and it would have gone to double figures I'd bet.

hucklebuck

I think Youmzain has a great chance and will be steadily sticking more on him as we get closer to the event.

As for STS last year, you won;t ever see a better performance on a course the way he was scrapping Mick for the first 2 furlongs or so before he was dropped back, the way he was still acting the maggot with 1000 to go, the way he was boxed in going around the final bend (I was listening to, "he has too much to do, he won't win", my retort "name your stake and I will give you 3/1" - silence followed ) and the way at 2.00 minutes the way our view of him was obscured by 2.02 he was in the clear and Mick was just asking him to go, that was when I knew he had it in the bag. As they crossed the line I nearly deafened the doubters, STS @ 14/1 , the winning distance, the straight forecast and but for stupid Cavalryman I would of had the straight tricast also.

I remember hearing after the race one of the jockeys was interviewed and he had asked him how did Mick get out of there.

I can't stand that Rishi(?) fella and love the way the fantastic Mr Oxx just says to him "Well you see Mick wouldn't panic because this horse has the gears, you know, that is what any jockey will tell you, if the horse has the speed, the gears he'll get himself out of trouble"

Oh did anyone else take advantage of Blue Square's stupid bet last year?

Sea The Stars to win by 2 or more lengths 9/4
Sea The Stars to win by less than 2 lengths 2/1

I ploughed into the 9/4 and put half of that stake on the 2/1 bet, i would have sacked my odds guy for that one as it was basically you can't lose!!:cool: