Red C Poll results

dlofnep

Fine Gael: 31% (-2)
Fianna Fáil: 24% (0)
Labour: 23% (-4)
Sinn Féin: 10% (+2)
Greens: 3% (+1)
Independents: 9% (+3)

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/new-poll-shows-drop-in-support-for-labour-475113.html

Stark difference between the recent poll and this Red C one.

deise go deo

Hard to beleive FF still has 24%, I wonder if some people were being ironic?

Also hard to beleive FG and Labour are both loseing ground, how bad do you have to be to lose popularity in the fac of the current Gov?:eek:

Revolution9

24% for FF?

What a disgrace. When will we ever learn?

dlofnep

deise go deo wrote: »

Hard to beleive FF still has 24%, I wonder if some people were being ironic?

Also hard to beleive FG and Labour are both loseing ground, how bad do you have to be to lose popularity in the fac of the current Gov?:eek:

The public may not have faith in FF - But their alternatives might just not be appealing to the voting public. The biggest swing in votes was to the independents of 3%, which indicates that people are not happy with the current choices. Sinn Féin gained 2%, which I'd estimate came from Labour - on account of what the public perceives to be lack of policy papers.

If FF got rid of Cowen, and Lenihan was given the top spot - I could very well see FF hit the top of the polls again or come very close to it. It's doubtful that that will happen however.

if I've learned anything, it's that irrespective of what FF do - they will always have a strong core base of voters to rely on.

deise go deo

dlofnep wrote: »

The public may not have faith in FF - But their alternatives might just not be appealing to the voting public. The biggest swing in votes was to the independents of 3%, which indicates that people are not happy with the current choices. Sinn Féin gained 2%, which I'd estimate came from Labour - on account of what the public perceives to be lack of policy papers.

If FF got rid of Cowen, and Lenihan was given the top spot - I could very well see FF hit the top of the polls again or come very close to it. It's doubtful that that will happen however.

if I've learned anything, it's that irrespective of what FF do - they will always have a strong core base of voters to rely on.

I guess Enda isent doing FG any favours, still think he would actually make a good Taoiseach though, FF will have their diehards but 24%? I hope that dosent come about in an actual election.

Rockery Woman

Lets face it, Fine Gael have had ample opportunity to convince us they can run this country, but they have done absoultely nothing to convince us they can.

The Greens are all but extinct.

Labour could gain popularity, but as a party they aren't trusted by many people over the age of 30 because of their socialist leanings.

Sinn Fein - have only a minority of the electorate because they are considered more Northern Ireland than Republic of Ireland.

Socialist Worker Party - only for a few hippie lefties (not many of those in this country)

So in my opinion, this country is screwed, regardless of who is running the show.... any suggestions? (non violent...)

Rockery Woman

dlofnep wrote: »

The public may not have faith in FF - But their alternatives might just not be appealing to the voting public. The biggest swing in votes was to the independents of 3%, which indicates that people are not happy with the current choices. Sinn Féin gained 2%, which I'd estimate came from Labour - on account of what the public perceives to be lack of policy papers.

If FF got rid of Cowen, and Lenihan was given the top spot - I could very well see FF hit the top of the polls again or come very close to it. It's doubtful that that will happen however.

if I've learned anything, it's that irrespective of what FF do - they will always have a strong core base of voters to rely on.

Unfortunately, Brian Lenihan is being treated for cancer and probably wouldn't be willing to take over until he is recovered.

Revolution9

Rockery Woman wrote: »

Unfortunately, Brian Lenihan is being treated for cancer and probably wouldn't be willing to take over until he is recovered.

Why does everyone think Lenihan would be a good alternative? He's just as incompetant as Cowen judging by his performance as Minister for Finance to date.

Rockery Woman

Revolution9 wrote: »

Why does everyone think Lenihan would be a good alternative? He's just as incompetant as Cowen judging by his performance as Minister for Finance to date.

I suppose, but I have no faith in Fine Gael:(

Revolution9

Rockery Woman wrote: »

I suppose, but I have no faith in Fine Gael:(

Oh I'm the same. But I'd rather see FG in power than a Lenihan run FF.

A FG-Labour coalition would be interesting I think. They could potentially compliment each other very well. GB has Tory-LibDem, which seems to be functioning well so far. Could work here.

Bottle_of_Smoke

Revolution9 wrote: »

Why does everyone think Lenihan would be a good alternative? He's just as incompetant as Cowen judging by his performance as Minister for Finance to date.

He looks like he's more competent and is far more listenable than Cowen. These attributes alone have a big affect on people who are only passively interested in thinking about it.

charlemont

Revolution9 wrote: »

24% for FF?

What a disgrace. When will we ever learn?

its probable these 24% are the ones who are losing nothing in this recession, the elite of this country dont give a fcuk about the rest of us.. its FF all the way for these traitors...

Revolution9

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

He looks like he's more competent and is far more listenable than Cowen. These attributes alone have a big affect on people who are only passively interested in thinking about it.

I'm sure the elderly still resent Lenihan's decision to try to rob them of their medical cards.

As for the rest of the public, they went through Haughey's sh!te and then Bertie's sh!te and still stick with FF. Guess I have to accept we're brainless enough to let FF, be it with Cowen or Lenihan, have another term. Scary thought.

Revolution9

charlemont wrote: »

its probable these 24% are the ones who are losing nothing in this recession, the elite of this country dont give a fcuk about the rest of us.. its FF all the way for these traitors...

But surely 24% of voters havn't suffered to some degree during the recession. Or at least feel sympathy for those who have?

johnnyskeleton

deise go deo wrote: »

Hard to beleive FF still has 24%, I wonder if some people were being ironic?

Also hard to beleive FG and Labour are both loseing ground, how bad do you have to be to lose popularity in the fac of the current Gov?:eek:

Enda Kenny Roisin Shortall bad it seems, judging from their recent media exposures.

johnnyskeleton

charlemont wrote: »

its probable these 24% are the ones who are losing nothing in this recession, the elite of this country dont give a fcuk about the rest of us.. its FF all the way for these traitors...

Not quite. It's all farmers, vintners, builders, public servants and pensioners. All of these groups rely on special favours from FF which the other parties would almost certainly take away from them (and besides, if you are a farmer you vote FF there is no other way to farm in Ireland).

While these make up special interest groups, you'd hardly call them elites would you?

Elites, in the sense of people who are actually making lots of money despite the recession, are typically FG supporters because FG are against any further tax increases at the higher end. It didn't used to be thus, FF had their own little group who were earning huge sums of money from government contracts. But those days are coming to an end it seems.

imme

This is a virtual copy of the May 2010 poll by RedC, see here http://www.redcresearch.ie/documents/SBPElectionPollReport30thMay2010.pdf

Can we really take much from these polls???

RedC polls seem to be repetitive. Maybe they askk the same people all the time.:P

imme

dlofnep wrote: »

Sinn Féin gained 2%, which I'd estimate came from Labour - on account of what the public perceives to be lack of policy papers.

www.labour.ie should give some answers to those that say that Labour has no policies. People say the same about Fine Gael, they can see them on www.finegael.ie I don't understand why people assert that these parties don't have policies.

It's actually baffling:(

bcirl03

What puzzles me is I don’t know one person who says they'll vote Fianna Failure - there must be a lot of closet voters of the Failures out there!

whatawaster

Revolution9 wrote: »

Why does everyone think Lenihan would be a good alternative? He's just as incompetant as Cowen judging by his performance as Minister for Finance to date.

He's a barrister, so i don't know how we expect him to competently run the economy in our greatest hour of need.

He's a very intelligent and articulate man and i think he comes across as very genuine.

In all likelihood, he'll never now lead Fianna Fail, though he's clearly the best man for the job

deanh

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

He looks like he's more competent and is far more listenable than Cowen. These attributes alone have a big affect on people who are only passively interested in thinking about it.

Listenable? I'm sorry is that even a word? Seriously, do people like you have the right to vote? No wonder the country is the way it is.

deanh

imme wrote: »

www.labour.ie should give some answers to those that say that Labour has no policies. People say the same about Fine Gael, they can see them on www.finegael.ie I don't understand why people assert that these parties don't have policies.

It's actually baffling:(

Yes, It does seem to be FF spin being spouted by every cumman member up and down the country, with some success. Keep claiming that the opposition have no policies, despite the evidence, so as to frighten voters to stick with them. Its so obvious it would make you despair for Ireland. Had to laugh at Timmy Dooley? TD? on Matt Cooper last week after the tv3 poll. One minute, he said that the opposition had no policies. Next he wondered why the media were not questioning policy differences between FG and Labour. How can they have policy differences Timmy if they don't have policies? Perhaps your media advisor hadn't programmed that part of your brain.

Rosser

Revolution9 wrote: »

Why does everyone think Lenihan would be a good alternative? He's just as incompetant as Cowen judging by his performance as Minister for Finance to date.

You're in a minority of one with that comment, any impartial analysis proves that. I've never voted FF but I will at the next election because as bad as they are they're best equipped to get us out of the hole we're in ( granted one dug by Bertie).

johngalway

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Not quite. It's all farmers, vintners, builders, public servants and pensioners. All of these groups rely on special favours from FF which the other parties would almost certainly take away from them (and besides, if you are a farmer you vote FF there is no other way to farm in Ireland).

Whoa there pony.

I'm a farmer, so is my Dad, so are many people I know. Not all farmers vote FF, you are greatly misnformed on that notion. The current FF Ag minister is a waste of space, so was Calamity Coughlan. Current Social Protection minister Eamon O'Cuiv, made little of farmers at a non Ag meeting I happened to be attending. The same minister thinks so much of farmers he was 1.5 hours late and left early for an extremely inportant meeting to try to salvage something of the collapse of the REPS scheme, attended by farming organizations, councilors and TD's, as well as many many quite angry farmers.

If farmers got special favours from the FF led Government then farmers wouldn't be posting things like <this>. The only alternative to the previous link is for consumers to pay full price on the actual costs of producing animals/milk/grains + profit margin. The food retail/processor industry are the ones who really profit, not the majority of farmers.

People thinking farmers are rolling in money are dead wrong for the most part. There are wealthy farmers, just as there are wealthy doctors, businessmen, etc. We work hard, the most of us do that so we can just get by like anyone else.

Wide Road

bcirl03 wrote: »

What puzzles me is I don’t know one person who says they'll vote Fianna Failure - there must be a lot of closet voters of the Failures out there!

You're easily puzzled. No such party exists.

Biggins

Wide Road wrote: »

You're easily puzzled. No such party exists.

:rolleyes:

PeterIanStaker

I take polls with a pinch of salt to be honest, FF are always going to have that 24-25% vote because yes, some people are morons. Not that I have hope for any other party, or hope at all. FG should get rid of Inda, just as an aside, but I think everyone knows that.

bmaxi

whatawaster wrote: »

He's a barrister, so i don't know how we expect him to competently run the economy in our greatest hour of need.

He's a very intelligent and articulate man and i think he comes across as very genuine.

In all likelihood, he'll never now lead Fianna Fail, though he's clearly the best man for the job

Being a barrister is excellent preparation for being Minister for Finance, where else could you get such an excellent schooling in semantics and doublespeak?
I doubt if Lenihan comes up with any of the policies in Finance, he's just the rubber stamp for the civil servants. His main function would be to decide which of their policies would do the least damage to Fianna Fáil and their supporters.
Unfortunately for them, hiding the scams under the carpet has become more difficult as the carpet is threadbare and we can't afford to replace it.
Incidentally, is Red C a telephone poll? They could be making calls to the Cayman Islands or Monaco or anywhere, maybe that's why FF are on 24%.

amacachi

As far as I'm concerned individual polls are pretty much useless in this country, with geography, age and other circumstances being massive influences which there aren't enough polls taken generally to work out exactly how these factors numerically influence the results.
Independents are going up according to that, I mean really, that's such a difficult number to measure when in some constituencies the independents will struggle to a hundred votes.

Colonel Sanders

Em isn't the margin for error 3% on these polls? If so only one change is statistically significant

Liam Byrne

Revolution9 wrote: »

Why does everyone think Lenihan would be a good alternative? He's just as incompetant as Cowen judging by his performance as Minister for Finance to date.

Rosser wrote: »

You're in a minority of one with that comment, any impartial analysis proves that. I've never voted FF but I will at the next election because as bad as they are they're best equipped to get us out of the hole we're in ( granted one dug by Bertie).

Don't make bold sweeping claims that are untrue; at the very least it's a minority of two, because Lenihan is incompetent at his role.

yoshytoshy

I thought government consisted of a number of td's to do various jobs ,if bertie ahern alone got us into this mess ,what was the rest of his party getting up to ?

Fianna fail got us into the abyss we're in and they don't know how to get us out. At least other parties looking at it from the outside stand a chance ,no strings attached.

Colonel Sanders

Rosser wrote: »

You're in a minority of one with that comment

Really?

Revolution9

Rosser wrote: »

You're in a minority of one with that comment, any impartial analysis proves that. I've never voted FF but I will at the next election because as bad as they are they're best equipped to get us out of the hole we're in ( granted one dug by Bertie).

I'm in a minority of one in thinking Lenihan is incompetent?!
Your either taking the p*ss or seriously out of touch.

Revolution9

whatawaster wrote: »

He's a barrister, so i don't know how we expect him to competently run the economy in our greatest hour of need.

He's a very intelligent and articulate man and i think he comes across as very genuine.

In all likelihood, he'll never now lead Fianna Fail, though he's clearly the best man for the job

So then it was highly irresponsible for him to take a position in which he was incapable to function in a competent fashion. Make's him more of a clown in my opinion.

SeaFields

Just as a matter of interest there is talk of several new political parties running candidates in the next election.

When these polls are being conducted should people be asked about these alternatives as well?

Could distort the figures more (if there is support for these alternatives) and give another indication of where we are going after the next GE.

Just wondering really if anyone knows the answer

Mr.Micro

Revolution9 wrote: »

I'm in a minority of one in thinking Lenihan is incompetent?!
Your either taking the p*ss or seriously out of touch.

What has Lenihan done but throw our money at the banks and because he is Minister of Finance in a time of crisis he has an additional kudos.....doling out tax payers money. He does not have a clue like the rest of the FF led Government.

unit 1

It makes me laugh when media commentators portray Kenny's "low" poll rates as signifigant saying "the people" wont vote for him as taoiseach when this is not the case. All politics is local as we know (just look at grealish and the bould mattie) so voters vote for their local tds, in which case it is only the people of mayo that will be voting for Kenny as taoiseach.
Those who say they will not vote for FG while Kenny is leader are probably only a small minority, and will focus on local issues when voting.
BTW Labour on 35% what a joke.

bijapos

unit 1 wrote: »

It makes me laugh when media commentators portray Kenny's "low" poll rates as signifigant saying "the people" wont vote for him as taoiseach when this is not the case. All politics is local as we know (just look at grealish and the bould mattie) so voters vote for their local tds, in which case it is only the people of mayo that will be voting for Kenny as taoiseach.
Those who say they will not vote for FG while Kenny is leader are probably only a small minority, and will focus on local issues when voting.
BTW Labour on 35% what a joke.

Some of us don't, we vote for a party and its policies on a national level, not a local one. I voted for local political issues in June 09 at the local elections.

Bottle_of_Smoke

unit 1 wrote: »

It makes me laugh when media commentators portray Kenny's "low" poll rates as signifigant saying "the people" wont vote for him as taoiseach when this is not the case. All politics is local as we know (just look at grealish and the bould mattie) so voters vote for their local tds, in which case it is only the people of mayo that will be voting for Kenny as taoiseach.
Those who say they will not vote for FG while Kenny is leader are probably only a small minority, and will focus on local issues when voting.
BTW Labour on 35% what a joke.

I disagree. Whilst politics is certainly local the national question influences how one votes locally. Personally I voted against Fine Gael in the 2007 election because Enda Kenny was the leader. I voted/gave preferences for labour/independent/greens - I can't say I would have voted for FG for sure but I know Enda Kenny put me right off them. I know people who canvassed for labour that year and they claimed people on the doors commonly said they wouldn't vote labour because they'd go into power with Fine Gael/Enda Kenny.

johnnyskeleton

imme wrote: »

www.labour.ie should give some answers to those that say that Labour has no policies. People say the same about Fine Gael, they can see them on www.finegael.ie I don't understand why people assert that these parties don't have policies.

It's actually baffling:(

That's all well and good, but lets look at Labour's healthcare proposal because that is where massive cuts have to be made and that is also where people feel the least satisfied with the way this government has run the health sector.

Here is the policy document:

http://www.labour.ie/download/pdf/broad_consensus_now_gathering_behind_.pdf

The central premise is great an a good vote winner - universal high quality healthcare for all:

What this report makes clear is that the introduction of universal health insurance in
Ireland is both feasible and affordable. The argument is sound. The political challenge

lies in winning it, which is what I would like to discuss here today.

Great. So after that brief introduction, surely they will tell us how it is both feasable and affordable and set out their arguments. Perhaps they will tell us how we can all have a better quality service for the same price we are paying at the moment or lower.

But it doesn't do that, nor does it set out any numbers or analysis. It goes on to criticise the current system as inefficient (we know that), criticise the US system (we know that) and look to continental systems such as France (the best in the world, providing excellent care at an affordable price).

The only thing that could be seen as an actual proposed change is to change the model from a profit based one to a non profit one. Great, you say, now all we need to do is go ask all those striking HSE staff if they are prepared to work for minimum wage in the public good.

The conclusion is equally vague:

And we will still have to answer those questions raised at the beginning: does it make sense for families? Does it make the health service better? And will it be economically sustainable?

It is how we answer those questions, that will win the hearts and minds of a population
made anxious by scarcity, and sceptical of reforms that have not delivered tangible
benefits.

Another soundbite. They don't actually know how they will answer those questions, but by god in answering them they will surely win the hearts and minds of the population. This is despite working on this proposal since 2001.

And that's Labour's problem all over. Sure, I realise that if any party said "look, it's higher taxes, lower services and huge cuts for public sector workers and social welfare" they probably wouldn't be elected so we can allow for a certain level of vagueness.

Equally, there is nothing from FF as to how they would reform our current health spend.

But the problem is that no politicial party stands for anything in Ireland (other than SF etc). Perhaps that is not their fault, after all the people of Ireland will vote for their local man above all national interest, but if we are to change into a real country, I would like to see some actual policies.

So even if Labour said "we will increase PRSI by 3%, fire a load of middle managers in the HSE and drive down the cost of consultants" then they would be somewhere close to a REAL policy. But until then it's just more bluster.
[/FONT]

FG have the same policy, but it is even vaguer than Labours. They say they will adopt the Dutch system as though it was as easy as that. The Dutch system arose from years of efficiency. We not only don't have that but we also have poweful opposition from consultanats and trade unions. If Mary Harney can't impose efficiency on the HSE, it will be difficult to see how FG will be able to do it so easily. For their next trick they might adopt the Chinese manufacturing system, the Saudi oil system and relocate Harvard, Yale, Princeton and Berkeley to the West of Ireland!

http://www.finegael.org/upload/Hope%20for%20a%20Lost%20Generation.pdf

dotski_w_

For anyone whose interested, there's a constituency analysis of how the last 2 polls would be likely to pan out locally (over 4 posts, I'm afraid)

First post is at http://irishpollingreport.wordpress.com/2010/09/26/48-hours/ it explains the methodology, and after 10 constituencies has links the the next 3 posts.

For anoraks only, I'm afraid.....

bijapos

^ Interesting stuff.

Do you have final totals based on your work?

Hope Labour get in in Roscommon South Leitrim.

Lockstep

johngalway wrote: »

I'm a farmer, so is my Dad, so are many people I know. Not all farmers vote FF, you are greatly misnformed on that notion. The current FF Ag minister is a waste of space, so was Calamity Coughlan. Current Social Protection minister Eamon O'Cuiv, made little of farmers at a non Ag meeting I happened to be attending. The same minister thinks so much of farmers he was 1.5 hours late and left early for an extremely inportant meeting to try to salvage something of the collapse of the REPS scheme, attended by farming organizations, councilors and TD's, as well as many many quite angry farmers.

I'm not a farmer but I live in the countryside (Connemara to be exact)

Ó Cuiv gets pretty much the entire farmer vote out here. He's well regarded by the rural/Connmara people.

Certainly not all farmers vote for FF, but historically, FF got the small farmer vote and FG got the large farmer vote.

nuac

Dotski

Thanks for your analysis of recent polls which is interesting.

In Mayo you mention the high FG vote being due to John O'Mahoney being the GAA county manager. THat is so - he was appointed shortly before the election,

However the surge in FG votes was principally due to a "Mayo Taoiseach" view. That still applies, but as you say it is a difficult constituency to predice.

In a national poll of a 1000, I presume the number polled in Mayo would be about 30 or so. Can you really tell anything from that small sample?.

I know the national poll shows party strengths and weeknesses, but as Tip O'Neill said all politics is local.

dotski_w_

bijapos wrote: »

^ Interesting stuff.

Do you have final totals based on your work?

Hope Labour get in in Roscommon South Leitrim.

Cheers

RedC come out at

FG 59
LP 44
FF 42
SF 12 (!)
GP 1
OTH 8
http://irishpollingreport.wordpress.com/2010/09/25/polar-opposites/

L/MB come out at
http://irishpollingreport.wordpress.com/2010/09/23/tv3-poll-230910/
LP 67 (yes, 67)
FG 54
FF 39
SF 1
GP 0
OTH 5

@nuac, thanks - it is based on mathematical projection rather than a smaller sample (as you ay, 30 would be practically useless) and yes you're right, there will be variances (including Mayo certainly, as I say there's a lot of local factors here) but as I say if they deviate from a 'normal' swing as a result of those factors, this shows what that 'normal' swing would give - i.e. you can see what they are deviating from.

If you catch my drift!

nuac

Thanks Dotski - follow your point - I think - sort of.

It is along time since I studied some statistics, and then it was thru Irish at UCG, and political polling wasnt on the curriculum.

However thanks again for the analysis.