Q2 2010 GDP & GNP Figures

hinault

Official figures show that the economy shrank in the second quarter of this year, having technically emerged from recession in the first three months of the year.

The Central Statistics Office said economic output, as measured by gross domestic product, fell by 1.2% from April to June. GDP had grown by 2.2% in the first quarter, boosted by a strong increase in profits at multi-national companies based here.

Gross national product, which excludes multi-national profits and is seen by many economists as a more accurate barometer of the Irish economy, fell by 0.3% compared with the first quarter.


On an annual basis, GDP was down 1.8%, while GNP was 4.1% lower.
A breakdown of the figures showed that spending by consumers on goods and services fell by 1.7% compared with the same period last year, while investment by businesses dropped by almost 20%. Government spending was down 3.4% from a year earlier.

But trade contributed €884m more to the economy than a year earlier, as exports grew more quickly than imports. Industrial production was also 1.7% higher than a year earlier, though within this, construction output fell by 28.8%.

Imports surge affected figures - Lenihan
Finance Minister Brian Lenihan blamed the falls on a surge in imports during the second quarter, but said he was encouraged by the strong figures for exports.

He also said the pace of decline in consumer spending and investment was easing, and that the GNP figures were stabilising.
The Department of Finance is looking at all the recent economic figures and will publish revised budgetary estimates and economic forecasts in the second half of October

ardmacha

So in 2010 GDP is looking like +1% and GNP -1%, not much out of line with expectations.
it all depends on what the imports are for, are they are used to manufacture things for exports later in the year or are they consumer goods. If the first then GDP should perk up and if the second then VAT returns should be better.

Count Dooku

hinault wrote: »

Gross national product, which excludes multi-national profits and is seen by many economists as a more accurate barometer of the Irish economy, fell by 0.3% compared with the first quarter.

while in first quarter GNI fell by 8.5%
http://www.cso.ie/statistics/imfsummaryire.htm

acotone

Think they call it a "double dip" recession

ashleey

acotone wrote: »

Think they call it a "double dip" recession

'Depression'?

MrDarcy

Jasus I swore someone said to me we had turned the corner?!? What happened to the green shoots??? :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

ei.sdraob

I wonder how ff will spin this one at 6.1 news

RichardAnd

Recession and depression are just words. Thought we supposedly left what some would call a recession at the start of the year there were no real signs of recovery because what it all comes down to at the end of the day is unemployment.

When people start getting back to work and that 13.8 or whatever is is not starts sliding down, then we will be recovering.

acotone

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/sep/23/ireland-austerity-budgets-comment

Saadyst

MrDarcy wrote: »

Jasus I swore someone said to me we had turned the corner?!? What happened to the green shoots??? :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

"Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan said the pace of decline in consumption and investment was easing and was broadly in line with projections.

"I agree that these are not encouraging figures but we have moved from a position of a very sharp steep decline to a position where we've stabilised," Mr Lenihan said in an interview with RTÉ radio this afternoon.

"That is a turning of a corner that hasn't been seen in very many economies in the world.""


That's just hilarious.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0923/breaking19.html

RichardAnd

acotone wrote: »

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/sep/23/ireland-austerity-budgets-comment

Interesting to see how the outside world views us. But you know, for most of it's history, the Irish State has been in a more or less permanent recession/depression bar the brief boom period which, to be honest, was really just a fluke.

Nijmegen

Fianna Fail are working in the wrong country. They could have been stood on top of the Iraqi ministry of information seven years ago briefing the press....

Orchard Rebel

Nijmegen wrote: »

Fianna Fail are working in the wrong country. They could have been stood on top of the Iraqi ministry of information seven years ago briefing the press....

That seems to be the thing. Judging by Larry Elliott's blog and the FT's view on the story, international opinion is simply not listening to the government any more. Then again, what credibility can one have when describing a contracting economy and record highs on the bond yield market as "turning the corner"?

What's even more alarming is that, another FT article is reporting market rumours that AIB may now be in big trouble as well. Whilst the FT article describes the rumours as possible "market scuttlebut", it's disturbing nonetheless.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0163b8c2-c470-11df-b827-00144feab49a.html

hinault

Mr Benevolent

To use a colloquialism: We're boned, aren't we?

rightwingdub

Judging by todays figures Long Live the Croke Park agreement:rolleyes:

A bigger deficit is likely if today's figures persist into next year.

Colonel Sanders

In Lenny we trust. Where's that corner? I feel like doing a bit of turning

MrDarcy

gurramok

GNP is still falling
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0923/economy.html

rte wrote:

GDP had grown by 2.2% in the first quarter, boosted by a strong increase in profits at multi-national companies based here.

Gross National Product, which excludes multi-national profits and is seen by many economists as a more accurate barometer of the Irish economy, fell by 0.3% compared with the first quarter.

On an annual basis, GDP was down 1.8%, while GNP was 4.1% lower.

As I had always said on this forum, claims of economy growth base on GDP is misleading. Now that GDP fell, the situation is worse.

JTMan

Great ZeroHedge article on the double dip, irish style ...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/irish-spreads-jump-country-first-officially-double-dip

So poor Ireland not only has to deal with a drunk PM, insolvent bank system, and, what is not surprising a new economic crunch, but what is far more concerning, a Department of Truth and Unicorns, which is unable to lie its teeth off and paint a rosy picture when the feces are already in process of being fanned.

ardmacha

Great ZeroHedge article on the double dip, irish style ...

I take any article with a pinch of salt that cannot tell the difference between Anglo and AIB.

ei.sdraob

http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2010/09/economics-24910-double-dip-is-now.html

doubledip it is

mrgaa1

with christmas just around the corner (sorry its early to mention that word) spending will increase. People are hoarding money and they are not spending because they've now realised they don't have to keep up with the Jones's, there are people that can repair shoes and ripped jeans etc... and that the food in Lidl and Aldi is ok. Cars do last more than 2 years and that a car at €10k with 5 seats does get you from A to B and back the same as a car at €60k.

Saw this headline on BBC:

Petrobras raises $70bn in record share offering

This is the Brazilian oil company - they could buy Ireland if they want to. Does anyone know if there is any oil fields nearby?

ei.sdraob

front page of wall street journal for all the wrong reasons...

Scarab80

ei.sdraob wrote: »

http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2010/09/economics-24910-double-dip-is-now.html

doubledip it is

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics

Year on Year Annualised GDP at Current Market Rates