"Young doctors could soon face dole"

tallaght01

some hack wrote:

wednesday September 22 2010
Young doctors could face unemployment here within a decade because of a lack of training posts and jobs, the president of the Royal College of Surgeons has warned.

Prof Eilis McGovern, a surgeon, said the number of graduates would soon far exceed the available posts in hospitals.

More places have been created for medical students, but these are not being matched by an increased number of training posts in hospitals for graduates.

An expert Fottrell report in 2006 recommended more than doubling medical places over four years from 305 to 725.

But Prof McGovern told the 'Irish Medical Times' that "there are only 4,500 NCHD (trainee doctor) posts in the country. So if you divide that by 725 you are looking at only enough posts for six or seven years of training".

The chances of new doctors getting a post have been affected by the HSE moratorium on recruitment and the decision to only appoint a senior consultant where two trainee posts were suppressed.

If these issues were not tackled, she warned, in 10 years unemployment may be a real concern for doctors, despite the huge state investment.

The Government had promised that patients would have more access to senior doctors but the number of new consultant appointments had not materialised as hoped for.

- Eilish O'Regan

Irish Independent

It's only the indo, but could well be true.

Vorsprung

I'm not sure how true that is anymore - there are 250 unfilled jobs or so out there now. More and more people are heading abroad. Of those unfilled jobs, many of are non-training jobs, and so are really unattractive, but I can't see people turning these jobs down in favour of the dole.

tallaght01

I agree. I think they're mixing up training jobs with non training jobs. But the non training jobs are so worthless (one SHO job in a non training post wouldn't be the end of the world, though) that I reckon a few people would emigrate rather than do them.

I mean, adding even a year to your acute SHO on-call life would be a bit of a nightmare.

I would emigrate rather than doing even one of those jobs, unless it was some kind of highly competitive special where you had to wait for a training number to crop up.

EDIT: I think I'm losing it. There was a post here after my OP, which I was replying to. But that's gone now!

RobFowl

It's reported in an interview with he incoming president of the RCSI in the far more reputable Irish Medical Times.

http://www.imt.ie/news/2010/09/dole-queue-may-loom-for-doctors.html

Basically the DOH implemented the Fottrell report which increased the number of medical school places from 305 to 725 due to a predicted shortage of NCHD's.

Since then the DOH has decided to cut the number of NCHD jobs supposedly replacing them with consultant ones on a one for one basis. There are 4500 NCHD jobs at present but these are going to be reduced. AFAIK only about 2600 are approved training positions though.

Assuming these 725 new doctors will need an average of 7 years training (very much on the optomistic side) then 5075 NCHD (proper training Jobs) will be required to allow them to train in Ireland.

In reality GP's training needs a minimum of 5 years (including intern year) and some surgical specialities up to 15 years.

Quite clearly the numbers simply do not add up.

take everything

tallaght01 wrote: »

It's only the indo, but could well be true.

Was in the IMT as well.

professore

The economic disaster we are facing is going to affect us all, even previously sheltered areas such as medicine. The country is bankrupt so expect more headlines like these.

RobFowl

professore wrote: »

The economic disaster we are facing is going to affect us all, even previously sheltered areas such as medicine. The country is bankrupt so expect more headlines like these.

The problem is even worse as the present shower increased the number of places, effectively training doctors at vast expense who are now going to either claim the dole or emigrate....

I suppose it's all our own fault for electing them again and again.......

bleg

This comes as no great surprise. There are architects, pharmacists, dentists, nurses, lawyers etc... all on the dole.

Jane5

This situation is f**king moronic in the context of young doctors working 100 hour weeks covering multiple wards and having a general shortage of doctors as it is to ensure safe services.

How many times does anyone have to say this? FFS!

Double the number of NCHD posts. No overtime worked, no overtime paid. Saves money, keeps the population alive and healthier, which in turn decreases costs associated with untreated morbidity and litigation associated with both this and unnecessary mortality, which also saves money.

No waste of taxpayer money training docs for emigration. Train 'em and retain 'em. Pay basic wages for as near as basic hours as can be achieved. Embrace part timers.

How in the name of all that is holy are the HSE, Harney and the govt in general SO stupid? This seems basic to almost anyone I talk to.

dissed doc

Jane5 wrote: »

How in the name of all that is holy are the HSE, Harney and the govt in general SO stupid? This seems basic to almost anyone I talk to.

They are not stupid. The plan is to save money and shut down hospitals more long term staff retire. Eventually a small core free-clinic will remain in places, and most people will be forced through need to buy private health insurance.

opinion guy

dissed doc wrote: »

They are not stupid. The plan is to save money and shut down hospitals more long term staff retire. Eventually a small core free-clinic will remain in places, and most people will be forced through need to buy private health insurance.

I agree. Frankly I think this has been there deliberate intention for the last ten years.

Vorsprung

tallaght01 wrote:

I think I'm losing it. There was a post here after my OP, which I was replying to. But that's gone now!

That was my post! I double posted and looks like I deleted both,what a clutz.

I think my point was that I wasn't so sure whether there would be many unemployed doctors in years to come, because even though the training posts would be oversubscibed,there would always be spare non-training posts that people could fill for a year. And with more and more people heading abroad, the pressure would increase at a slower rate.

That said,since I posted that, the one speciality which is going to go nuts is GP (and it's a bit nuts already). Anecdotally, I hear that many of the GEM students (correct me if Im wrong) want to do GP. That's well and good because society needs more GPs, but the places are just not there.

Finally, lest anyone says something like "you lot think you should always have jobs,you're bleeding the coffers dry and have bankrupted the country while in cahoots with Fitzpatrick and his cronies" - the Govt made a big deal about putting GEM courses on the table, and many people have bitten the bullet at a not insignificant cost to themselves and their families. For Govt not to have put in place plans to have these guys (and the rest of us) trained at a fast rate is a major injustice.

Chuchoter

Forgive my ignorance, but does this mean that you have people coming out of college with nowhere to go?

sam34

tallaght01 wrote: »

EDIT: I think I'm losing it. There was a post here after my OP, which I was replying to. But that's gone now!

Vorsprung wrote: »

That was my post! I double posted and looks like I deleted both,what a clutz.

i've undeleted that for you!

Vorsprung

crayolastereo wrote: »

Forgive my ignorance, but does this mean that you have people coming out of college with nowhere to go?

I don't think so. Look up hospitaljobs.ie,there's loads of NCHD jobs out there - most non-training posts but some are accreditted. Good candidates will inariably get a training scheme - the big speed bumps are at SpR level and if applying for GP.

Qualitymark

Maybe if the government decided to level all hospital doctors' wages, and use the extra cash to hire extra doctors?

Darlughda

Well. I understand the hell of education and training doctors go through.

But nonetheless, welcome to the real world of unemployment.

tallaght01

Darlughda wrote: »

Well. I understand the hell of education and training doctors go through.

But nonetheless, welcome to the real world of unemployment.

This is exactly the kind of rubbish I was expecting.

THe point is that there's enough hours for everyone. It's just that the govt will have a small number of docs doing crazy hours, rather than everyone doing a sensible amount.

Traumadoc

Perhaps president McGovern has been reading boards??

http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=66706283&postcount=79

http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=65287482&postcount=2

The penny drops?

tallaght01

Traumadoc wrote: »

Perhaps president McGovern has been reading boards??

http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=66706283&postcount=79

http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=65287482&postcount=2

The penny drops?

I think you ARE president McGovern :P

Traumadoc

LOL

Traumadoc

Qualitymark wrote: »

Maybe if the government decided to level all hospital doctors' wages, and use the extra cash to hire extra doctors?

Sure , why it not apply to all jobs , Dr. Marx?:rolleyes:

Vorsprung

Traumadoc wrote: »

LOL

Nervous laugh?

Traumadoc

donaghs

Traumadoc wrote: »

Sure , why it not apply to all jobs , Dr. Marx?:rolleyes:

In a bad economy with less money to pay the bills, more people chasing less jobs, and price deflation, it makes sense for most employers to reduce wages/salaries. Obviously its not popular.

It's a terrible symptom of the mess we are in if doctors end up on the dole. But they are in a better situation than most. Firstly, there will always be employment for most medical graduates in Ireland. The same can't be said about others graduates who are unemployed, retraining or emigrating. A medical degree also allows a good deal flexibility in finding work in others areas. And is also a great passport to finding a job abroad.

All of this is in great contrast to the thousands of Media Studies-type graduates Ireland has produced in the last decade.

eass82

RobFowl wrote: »

Basically the DOH implemented the Fottrell report which increased the number of medical school places from 305 to 725 due to a predicted shortage of NCHD's.
This fits well with the govt's plan to increase by 50% the number of foreign students coming to study here. I dont know the exact figures but I believe non EU students pay crazy money for tuition in Irish universities (approx 20k PA?)In an era of underfunded universities it could well see the medical courses become somewhat of a cash cow for those universities bringing in large numbers of non EU students. Hope the increased numbers wont lead to a slip in standards of tuiton.

Biologic

Non-EU fees for RCSI in 08/09 were 45'000.

N8

Darlughda wrote: »

Well. I understand the hell of education and training doctors go through.

But nonetheless, welcome to the real world of unemployment.

Would this unemployment rate perhaps decrease population death rates as happens with medical strikes?

http://www.bmj.com/content/320/7249/1561.1.extract

Could letting Fianna Fail funeral directors know this and them then contacting their TDs not be the way to go to fight this?

tallaght01

Does anyone remember the claims that there would be mass medical unemployment in the UK a few years ago?

Well that never materialised, One of the ways they dealt with it was by quite cruelly restricting the practice of overseas graduates (who they depended on for many years to keep the NHS afloat). It's pretty hard for non EU docs to get work in Britain now.

Any word of that kind of thing happening here?

resus

We don't have enough doctors right now to fill posts. Emergency Departments are closing as a result, conditions are totally unattractive for training doctors in Ireland and believe it or not consultants . The only alternative is to attempt to flood the Market at the bottom end, but doubtfull it will be anywhere near enough .

Doctors will not be in the que for very long, unless they are very fussy about where they work!

Traumadoc

That is what they want to happen, close hospitals because they cannot be staffed.
Close the hospitals just as the number of graduates doubles.

briankirby

so pharmacy is is destroyed,same with physio,dent,veterinary,law and now medicine.
What isnt ruined?

donaghs

briankirby wrote: »

so pharmacy is is destroyed,same with physio,dent,veterinary,law and now medicine.
What isnt ruined?

Perhaps might be worth opening a discussion on a another forum to see exactly how "law" has been "destroyed"?

briankirby

donaghs wrote: »

Perhaps might be worth opening a discussion on a another forum to see exactly how "law" has been "destroyed"?

Saw this,when we first hit recession a couple years back
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055384320

Have things improved hugely for lawyers since then?

tallaght01

briankirby wrote: »

Saw this,when we first hit recession a couple years back
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055384320

Have things improved hugely for lawyers since then?

My sis got her masters in law last year from UCD. Most of her class are unemployed. All of her friends that I've met are unemployed or doing non-lawyer jobs.

She was extremely lucky to get a very junior job, and she had to go through 2 rounds of interviews for it.

donaghs

tallaght01 wrote: »

My sis got her masters in law last year from UCD. Most of her class are unemployed. All of her friends that I've met are unemployed or doing non-lawyer jobs.

She was extremely lucky to get a very junior job, and she had to go through 2 rounds of interviews for it.

The conveyencing boom is over. And even should the recession end, there shouldn't be a need for that many solicitors again. Unless another property bubble is a good thing...

opinion guy

donaghs wrote: »

The conveyencing boom is over. And even should the recession end, there shouldn't be a need for that many solicitors again. Unless another property bubble is a good thing...

Well the way they are stripping out the health service, I expect medical malpractice could be the next boom area in law!

tallaght01

donaghs wrote: »

The conveyencing boom is over. And even should the recession end, there shouldn't be a need for that many solicitors again. Unless another property bubble is a good thing...

Well there wasn't this kind of legal unemployment before the property boom, so I don't think the conveyancing issue can explain it all.

Anyway, that's not really the point of this thread.

Important point:
There was an article in the med journal of australia yesterday saying that there will be a surplus of junior docs here from 2012 (I know the article only reflects the intern situation. But it's part of the Aus government plan to become self sufficient in terms of doctor numbers by 2012). So I'd advise people to get over here quickly if they want to get established in Oz. I've copy and pasted it below. This is HUGE if true.

MJA editorial wrote:

By all accounts, our health system is in chaos. We need more money, more hospital beds, more doctors and more nurses. General practitioners and some specialists are either in short supply or inappropriately distributed. Strategies to remedy this parlous state have been proposed, but the will to institute these policies remains frustrated by political hesitancy or bureaucratic ineptitude.

A case in point is the uncertainty surrounding the training of junior doctors. In the past decade, we have seen an unprecedented increase in new medical schools and the number of domestic medical students. The latter is projected to increase to 2920 in 2012, from 1544 in 2007. Add to this the estimated numbers of international medical graduates (517) and Australian Medical Council graduates (146), and by 2012 the number of doctors seeking internships (some 3500) will easily exceed the number of positions available — currently about 2200.

This blatant mismatch is symptomatic of a lack of integrated forward planning, as interns are a state concern and tertiary education a federal responsibility. Could it be that the bureaucrats are clinging onto fragments of the blame game? However, there are other players: our universities! Increasing medical student numbers has meant the kudos of a new medical school for some, while others have enjoyed increased revenue flowing into the faculty coffers.

But what has been done about the looming internship gap? Very little, it would seem, beyond committees and reports. We are now confronting a tsunami of medical graduates, but with no tangible national action to boost the capacity of our hospital system to absorb them.

There are rumours that the first to bear the brunt of the lack of intern positions are international medical graduates, followed by domestic fee-paying students. We may well see a repeat of what happened with the Modernising Medical Careers training program for junior doctors in the United Kingdom, when medical students and doctors marched in the streets in protest.

Someone is responsible for the mess we find ourselves in, and heads should roll within the ranks of our prevaricating and blundering bureaucrats.

The Medical Journal of Australia

Martin B Van Der Weyden, Editor.

Traumadoc

So no jobs in Ireland or in Australia?

I remember there was large unemployment in Italian doctors in the 90s - does anyone know what happened??

Lassiecomehome

Traumadoc wrote: »

So no jobs in Ireland or in Australia?

I remember there was large unemployment in Italian doctors in the 90s - does anyone know what happened??

I worked with an Italian SHO last year, the stories she told about life as a doctor in Italy would make you wince. For example everyone works for free for 1-2 years after graduation. You turn up to work every day as a sort of pre-intern and do all the dogsbody jobs for free. This is not part of medical school, you are a qualified doctor but there is tight competition for jobs so getting 2 years unpaid experience has become a prerequisite to getting official training positions. And you're grateful for this apparantly. Also, everyone from Intern to Reg gets paid the same amount of money, around €40,000/year. She was emphatic though, that their quality of life was better than ours. Still don't think I'd trade!

Traumadoc

I heard of one irish graduate did a two year unpaid fellowship in Italy.:eek:

RobFowl

Traumadoc wrote: »

I heard of one irish graduate did a two year unpaid fellowship in Italy.:eek:

From my cohort a fair number did "supranumerary" intern and SHO "jobs". That really would suit the HSE down to the ground ....

opinion guy

Ssshhhhh!!!! Shut up all of you!!! The HSE might be listening!! Don't go giving them ideas!!!

opinion guy

Traumadoc wrote: »

That is what they want to happen, close hospitals because they cannot be staffed.
Close the hospitals just as the number of graduates doubles.

Its already happening:

http://news.eircom.net/breakingnews/18711921/?view=Standard