Likeliness, and implications, of the IMF coming to sort us out?

kraggy

As per the title.

I don't really understand the possible consequences, and tried googling. What would be the consequences if they had to fix our mess?

And is it likely? As in, anyone want to hazzard a % probablility?!

Thanks,

K.

Lockstep

Their usual way of dealing with things is trade liberalisation (we've one of the freest economies in the world so not that much of an issue), raising of interest rates and massive reductions in public expenditure.

rightwingdub

Luckily we're in the eurozone so It would be the EU that would provide the bulk of financial assistance although the IMF would have their part to play as well. Likely things that would happen.

1) Increase in VAT to 25%
2) DRastic cuts in the numbers employed in the public sector, the IMF don't give a dam about jobs for life.
3) Drastic public sector pay cuts, the Croke Park deal would be ripped up.
4) Drastic welfare cuts and limits in the amount of time the unemployed will be able to be on welfare.
5) Mass privatisations wippee my favourite part of an IMF intervention:D
6) Increase in coporation tax, Greece had to increase corporation tax.
7) Public sector pensions would be radically reformed, hopefully all public sector workers would be put on defined contribution pensions.

Oh the joys of an EU/IMF rescueplan for Ireland, shame us complacent Paddies fail to see it happening.

steve9859

rightwingdub wrote: »

Luckily we're in the eurozone so It would be the EU that would provide the bulk of financial assistance although the IMF would have their part to play as well. Likely things that would happen.

1) Increase in VAT to 25%
2) DRastic cuts in the numbers employed in the public sector, the IMF don't give a dam about jobs for life.
3) Drastic public sector pay cuts, the Croke Park deal would be ripped up.
4) Drastic welfare cuts and limits in the amount of time the unemployed will be able to be on welfare.
5) Mass privatisations wippee my favourite part of an IMF intervention:D
6) Increase in coporation tax, Greece had to increase corporation tax.
7) Public sector pensions would be radically reformed, hopefully all public sector workers would be put on defined contribution pensions.

Oh the joys of an EU/IMF rescueplan for Ireland, shame us complacent Paddies fail to see it happening.

And probably the only thing worth adding to that is that no amount of public demonstrations / strikes would have any effect on the implementation of these measures - IMF / EU would be oblivious to civil strife. It would simply be a domestic political problem.

ei.sdraob

rightwingdub wrote: »

6) Increase in coporation tax, Greece had to increase corporation tax.

I think both EU and IMF would realise the implications of this move, it would sink the country fast not help it

rightwingdub

steve9859 wrote: »

And probably the only thing worth adding to that is that no amount of public demonstrations / strikes would have any effect on the implementation of these measures - IMF / EU would be oblivious to civil strife. It would simply be a domestic political problem.

The EU/IMF don't give a s**t about any likely riots on the streets, they haven't exactly caved into the Greeks and the Greeks are quite a militant bunch. Unlike our politicians the IMF don't have to run for election in Ireland so they don't care less if public sector workers and welfare recipients are peeved off at welfare cuts.

rightwingdub

ei.sdraob wrote: »

I think both EU and IMF would realise the implications of this move, it would sink the country fast not help it

Well aren't the European commission trying to harmonise corporation tax rates across the EU so they don't exactly care less about the likely implications of such a stupid decision.

kraggy

The above sounds good to me.

Except the increase in VAT to 25%. Wouldn't that decrease people's inclinations to buy goods therefore increasing unemployment?

Besides that, I'd agree in principle with the other measures. I definitely agree with a decrease in Social Welfare.

Dole is too high. And I'm unemployed.

Anyone know how much the Government would save for every euro the Dole/Job seekers allowance were decreased?

Lockstep

kraggy wrote: »

The above sounds good to me.

Except the increase in VAT to 25%. Wouldn't that decrease people's inclinations to buy goods therefore increasing unemployment?

Yeah, I agree. It'd just discourage consumer spending even more (we're already a rip off republic)

rightwingdub

kraggy wrote: »

The above sounds good to me.

Except the increase in VAT to 25%. Wouldn't that decrease people's inclinations to buy goods therefore increasing unemployment?

Besides that, I'd agree in principle with the other measures. I definitely agree with a decrease in Social Welfare.

Dole is too high. And I'm unemployed.

Anyone know how much the Government would save for every euro the Dole/Job seekers allowance were decreased?

I would strongly disagree with an increase in VAT, however the IMF forced the greeks to increase their VAT rate from 21% to 23% when they came in a few months ago.

ei.sdraob

rightwingdub wrote: »

Well aren't the European commission trying to harmonise corporation tax rates across the EU so they don't exactly care less about the likely implications of such a stupid decision.

If they commit to helping the country, how is kicking it deeper into a hole help?

Or am I giving the EU/IMF too much credit?

rightwingdub

ei.sdraob wrote: »

If they commit to helping the country, how is kicking it deeper into a hole help?

Or am I giving the EU/IMF too much credit?

The IMF have been known to force countries to increase taxes so don't be surpised to see an increase in corporation tax:mad:

galwayrush

Would the IMF have the power to stop the golden lottery type pensions our :pac:top:pac: people earn receive?

Did nobody watch Vincent Browne the other night?

Iceland`s economy is growing.

They let their 3 big banks go bust.
They borrowed money from the IMF but havent touched it yet.
Their jobless rates are half of ours.

Chuchoter

20%.
They were talking about this on the radio yesterday, if the IMF came here we might as well just throw ourselves collectively off a cliff.

rightwingdub

Deleted User wrote: »

Did nobody watch Vincent Browne the other night?

Iceland`s economy is growing.

They let their 3 big banks go bust.
They borrowed money from the IMF but havent touched it yet.
Their jobless rates are half of ours.

I thought they nationalised the banks in Iceland, are you sure they let their 3 biggest banks go bang.

SkepticOne

rightwingdub wrote: »

I thought they nationalised the banks in Iceland, are you sure they let their 3 biggest banks go bang.

I think they let them go bust then created new banks based on the infrastructure of the ones that failed.

Callan57

And they also got a new government & completed their investigations of the banks

Brussels Sprout

ei.sdraob wrote: »

If they commit to helping the country, how is kicking it deeper into a hole help?

Or am I giving the EU/IMF too much credit?

The IMF are not some benevolent group whose primary aim is to get a country back on its feet. Their number one aim is to try and get as much of the creditors' money back as possible. Hence the knock-down fire sale tactics that they use to asset strip countries and gouge tax payers. If a country manages to get back on it's feet as a leaner version of it's former self then that's just simply a fortuitous by-product of their work.

cyclopath2001

rightwingdub wrote: »

5) Mass privatisations wippee my favourite part of an IMF intervention:D.

So, all roads tolled, water electricity, health and gas sold off to speculators and the public fleeced for anything they can be squeezed for?

I presume then, you're a member of the 'golden circle', with loadsofmoney you made in the boom and are just waiting to buy a chunk of one of the privatized rip-off engines?

rightwingdub

cyclopath2001 wrote: »

So, all roads tolled, water electricity, health and gas sold off to speculators and the public fleeced for anything they can be squeezed for?

I presume then, you're a member of the 'golden circle', with loadsofmoney you made in the boom and are just waiting to buy a chunk of one of the privatized rip-off engines?

Government shouldn't be involved in the business of running business, we already have some of the highest electricity and gas prices in Europe thanks to a statist monoploy in these areas until recently, the ESB and Bord Gais should be split into separate companies and then privatised. And yes I'd like to see the hospitals privated, statist medicine has been an absolute disaster in Ireland.

cyclopath2001

rightwingdub wrote: »

Government shouldn't be involved in the business of running business,

The job of the state is to protect its citizens from private sector gougers. It's not doing that very well.

Banks used be in the private sector, how did that work out? And Eircom, a once highly liquid company is underwater in debt since it went private. Will the ESB and Bord Gais be the next Eircom? And our road network...just ripe for the plucking. How about water?,The UK privitised it some years back, with Eircom-like results.

Just saying 'privitise it' doesn't make a lot of sense.