Anybody see this in the Indo?

Steyr

http://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/belgians-warned-to-prepare-for-countrys-split-2326001.html

Belgians warned to prepare for country's split

By Martin Banks in Brussels


Monday September 06 2010

A woman tipped as a future Belgian premier has told citizens to "get ready for the break-up" of the country, after talks to form a government failed.

Laurette Onkelinx, a Socialist MP, spoke after King Albert II appointed two new negotiators to form a government straddling Dutch and French-speaking factions.

Elio Di Rupo, the Socialist leader, gave up efforts to form a coalition with the biggest Flemish party, the independence-minded N-VA, seven weeks after a general election returned a hung parliament.

"Let's hope it doesn't come to that because if we split, it will be the weakest who will pay the heaviest price. On the other hand, we can no longer ignore that among a large part of the Flemish population, it's their wish," Miss Onkelinx told 'La Derniere Heure' newspaper.

"So yes, we have to get ready for the break-up of Belgium. "Loads of people think it's possible."

Herman Van Rompuy, President of the European Council and a former Belgian prime minister, said he believed there was a chance of a breakthrough.

"We have to stand up to our followers, on both sides, Flemings and francophones, and move forward," he said.

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Would be interesting to see what you think may happen to the Belgian Armed Forces, would they be dissolved or have the opportunity to side with whoever they wish be it France or Holland? Would this mean a new Border for France/Holland/Europe? Interesting really.

I note that their fast air is comprised of F-16's while various trainers include the Alpha jet.

Steyr

Anybody care to even Hazard a Guess? MM? OS119?

OS119

ok, personally i'd not be surprised to see a 'fudge' solution - a vastly federalized rump state with the two entities almost entirely self-supporting and linked only by a smear of 'jointness' - because no one in Europe wants to deal with a for real break up of a country.

otoh, both groups have a large, 'affiliated' nation state - France and the Netherlands - both groups are going to have the ability to 'cry for help' should they get the smelly end of the stick, and neither France or the Netherlands is going to stand aloof if the other gets involved.

either a fudge or a nasty, protracted, bitter political row. a fudge is only more likely because thats what everyone else in Europe would prefer - and i'm sure would be prepared to pay for - what the two groups want is rather further down the list...

Steyr

Thank you.

charlemont

i have a good understanding of the history of the Benelux nations and Belgium was formed out of the Nederlands, it was a compromise as Britain ( who else ) was worried about France annexing most of modern day Belgium and gaining more access to the North Sea , Belgium was created as a catholic nation so the dutch catholics were included as some of them were not in favour of the dutch royal family at the time...

the solution there should be a dissolved Belgium and its likely the Flanders region
should rejoin Nederlands in their present form of provinces..

Wallonia wouldn't stand a chance on its own, France is their best option..

but with regards to Brussels, it was originally a dutch speaking city but gradually as capital city it became francophone, no real choice but to let the city stand on its own 2 feet anyway as EU capital, it will still have a good status and will no doubt thrive..

the military will only do as the people want, there is no chance of violence there..

dissolving belgium will be the best thing to ever happen that country..

PatsytheNazi

Sacre Blue!

The Grande Armée of France will once more be on the Field of Waterloo!

Will continental Europe ignite once again ? The ghost of Napoléon is looking on :eek:

OS119

PatsytheNazi wrote: »

Sacre Blue!

The Grande Armée of France will once more be on the Field of Waterloo!

Will continental Europe ignite once again ? The ghost of Napoléon is looking on :eek:

well, its probably about time for a war with the French - i for one feel we've been distracted by Germans and those from warmer climes for too long: time to get back to basics and give the French a good licking!

charlemont

OS119 wrote: »

well, its probably about time for a war with the French - i for one feel we've been distracted by Germans and those from warmer climes for too long: time to get back to basics and give the French a good licking!

the same french that landed in killala bay co mayo in 1798 to help the irish...

Steyr

charlemont wrote: »

the same french that landed in killala bay co mayo in 1798 to help the irish...

True but that was then, this is now and I believe that OS119 is not Irish, AFAIK he is British.

Local-womanizer

They threatened this a year or two ago afaik.

Anyway,I hope it doesnt affect the place too much,I'am looking to visit there over the christmas period!

OS119

Local-womanizer wrote: »

They threatened this a year or two ago afaik.

Anyway,I hope it doesnt affect the place too much,I'am looking to visit there over the christmas period!

i can't see it going 'hot' at all - doubtless you'll get the normal unpleasentness from ultra-nationalists on both sides, and 'unhelpful' elements in both France and the Netherlands sticking their oars in to stir-up the situation, but i don't see this as being a problem in any real sense, its certainly not going to turn into Bosnia.

PatsytheNazi

OS119 wrote: »

well, its probably about time for a war with the French - i for one feel we've been distracted by Germans and those from warmer climes for too long: time to get back to basics and give the French a good licking!

Ok we're getting off topic but it's just a bit of fun. The Germans were very invovled in Waterloo, though under the flag of Hanover and Prussia. We know well who the Grande Armée would have giving a good licking to if they hadn't been there !!!

Fratton Fred

OS119 wrote: »

well, its probably about time for a war with the French - i for one feel we've been distracted by Germans and those from warmer climes for too long: time to get back to basics and give the French a good licking!

I'll pop down to Fishguard and see if the local women are willing to help out again. http://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/Wales-History/Fishguard.htm

Ferocious warriors those Frenchies:D

Lockstep

OS119 wrote: »

otoh, both groups have a large, 'affiliated' nation state - France and the Netherlands - both groups are going to have the ability to 'cry for help' should they get the smelly end of the stick, and neither France or the Netherlands is going to stand aloof if the other gets involved.

Very unlikely to happen. Walloons and Flemish both tend to dislike France/the Netherlands (although there are some Walloons who seek Wallonia joining with France, but these are a veritable minority)
It's always interesting to see their reactions to the French/Dutch (I was once told that the main thing keeping Belgium together was their hatred of the French and Dutch themselves, especially with the Belgian culture on hospitality which the Dutch differ a lot on. A surprisingly large source of resentment)

Belgian history had them being controlled by both the French and the Dutch so there's an intrinsic suspicion there (sort of like Ireland with the English). Especially as Belgium was formed by seceding from the Netherlands in 1830.

It's also important to note that pillarisation is extremely important in both Belgium and the Netherlands but both countries have extremely different pillars. Especially Belgium which has much more rigid pillars.
Pillarisation is hard to describe but basically the main institutions; trade unions, political parties, sports clubs, newspapers, schools etc have a linking to one of 3 pillars; Christian Democrat (Catholic), Socialist and Liberal. It would be extremely hard to integrate this into either the Netherlands or France.

Belgium as a country works quite well, a scare comes up every few years but I can't see the country splitting anytime soon, with only a minority supporting secession. Most favouring confederalism as a way of forcing the Walloons to take responsability for their actions.
Normally claims of a breakup are used by Flemish nationalists to encourage their supporters or by Walloon Socialists to scare their supporters (who rely on Flemish subsidies).

PatsytheNazi

kickoutthejams wrote: »

Very unlikely to happen. Walloons and Flemish both tend to dislike France/the Netherlands (although there are some Walloons who seek Wallonia joining with France, but these are a veritable minority)
It's always interesting to see their reactions to the French/Dutch (I was once told that the main thing keeping Belgium together was their hatred of the French and Dutch themselves, especially with the Belgian culture on hospitality which the Dutch differ a lot on. A surprisingly large source of resentment)

Belgian history had them being controlled by both the French and the Dutch so there's an intrinsic suspicion there (sort of like Ireland with the English). Especially as Belgium was formed by seceding from the Netherlands in 1830.

It's also important to note that pillarisation is extremely important in both Belgium and the Netherlands but both countries have extremely different pillars. Especially Belgium which has much more rigid pillars.
Pillarisation is hard to describe but basically the main institutions; trade unions, political parties, sports clubs, newspapers, schools etc have a linking to one of 3 pillars; Christian Democrat (Catholic), Socialist and Liberal. It would be extremely hard to integrate this into either the Netherlands or France.

Belgium as a country works quite well, a scare comes up every few years but I can't see the country splitting anytime soon, with only a minority supporting secession. Most favouring confederalism as a way of forcing the Walloons to take responsability for their actions.
Normally claims of a breakup are used by Flemish nationalists to encourage their supporters or by Walloon Socialists to scare their supporters (who rely on Flemish subsidies).

I'd agree with you there, Belgium does indeed work quite well the majority of the time, a scare comes up every few years. Bit like Fianna Fail the 'Republican' party discovering their republicanism i.e. opening cummans of FF in the six counties. But on a military level, their is about zero chance of a Balkans type of implosion.

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I'll pop down to Fishguard and see if the local women are willing to help out again. http://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/Wales-History/Fishguard.htm

Ferocious warriors those Frenchies:D

Maybe you should pop up to Hartlepool instead and see if they are still hanging monkeys as French spies !!!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monkey_hanger

Ferocious warriors those Brits, but I bet they still would need the Prussians to beat the French - just like the last time

oglaigh

PatsytheNazi wrote: »

Ferocious warriors those Brits, but I bet they still would need the Prussians to beat the French - just like the last time

wow, what a surprise you think that!