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National Lottery Betting

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  • 07-09-2010 5:06am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 34


    Hi all, just thought i'd run something past ye....

    I was talking to a fellow this evening who told me about this bet that was guaranteed money (yes i know!) Basically the odds are 5/1 on a specific National Lottery Ball coming out of the drum. So for example, Wednesday night, he'll put €5 on number 1 coming out. If it doesn't come out, the next night he will double his stake on the same number to come out, so

    Day 2. €10 Stake
    Day 3. €20 Stake
    Day 4. €40 Stake

    and so on until number 2 comes out of the drum.

    His ideology is that it has to come out sometime therefore he can't lose.

    He asked my advice on it and it seems pretty plausible to do except when i got the calculator and showed him how much his stake would be after 10 draws, 15 draws etc, if number 2 hadn't come out. I'm not sure on National Lottery statistics but i'm pretty sure that there have been times when certain numbers haven't been drawn for a few months at a time. I also explained that bookies probably won't take large bets but he reckons he'd just go to different bookies if he had to. The same fellow has a bit of money so he could follow the bet into the thousands if he had to but there has to be a catch and he should obviously get as much statistical info as possible beforehand.... Anyway any thoughts on this?


Comments

  • Moderators Posts: 8,714 ✭✭✭x PyRo


    Same goes for all sorts of gambling, this (click) is the "system".

    One of the worst possible ways to gamble, unless you've an infinite amount of money.

    It's lunacy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,377 ✭✭✭Warper


    The Guv wrote: »
    Hi all, just thought i'd run something past ye....

    I was talking to a fellow this evening who told me about this bet that was guaranteed money (yes i know!) Basically the odds are 5/1 on a specific National Lottery Ball coming out of the drum. So for example, Wednesday night, he'll put €5 on number 1 coming out. If it doesn't come out, the next night he will double his stake on the same number to come out, so

    Day 2. €10 Stake
    Day 3. €20 Stake
    Day 4. €40 Stake

    and so on until number 2 comes out of the drum.

    His ideology is that it has to come out sometime therefore he can't lose.

    He asked my advice on it and it seems pretty plausible to do except when i got the calculator and showed him how much his stake would be after 10 draws, 15 draws etc, if number 2 hadn't come out. I'm not sure on National Lottery statistics but i'm pretty sure that there have been times when certain numbers haven't been drawn for a few months at a time. I also explained that bookies probably won't take large bets but he reckons he'd just go to different bookies if he had to. The same fellow has a bit of money so he could follow the bet into the thousands if he had to but there has to be a catch and he should obviously get as much statistical info as possible beforehand.... Anyway any thoughts on this?

    If he kept doubling his bet until he won with a €5 starting bet, eg 5-10-20-40-80 etc. the most he wil ever win is the €5, ie the starting bet. He would have lost everything else.


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,653 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    Warper wrote: »
    If he kept doubling his bet until he won with a €5 starting bet, eg 5-10-20-40-80 etc. the most he wil ever win is the €5, ie the starting bet. He would have lost everything else.

    That's if the odds are even money. The odds are 5/1.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,009 ✭✭✭✭L'prof


    Warper wrote: »
    If he kept doubling his bet until he won with a €5 starting bet, eg 5-10-20-40-80 etc. the most he wil ever win is the €5, ie the starting bet. He would have lost everything else.
    That's if the odds are even money. The odds are 5/1.

    Yep, a win with an €80 stake would return €480 after spending €155, so it would be €325 profit!


  • Registered Users Posts: 34 The Guv


    Yes, as with x pyro's link, and the example of a coin turning either heads or tails, the profit is always the original stake because the odds are 1/1. However in this case the potential profit is different because the odds are 5/1. Does it really make a difference though? I'd imagine not, because if the bookies are giving odds on a certain number coming out of the draw as 5/1, the true odds are probably ~7/1? So on a long term basis, it's all the same?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,957 ✭✭✭3DataModem


    The catch for your friend Is that he is regularly going to be several tens of grand in the hole, and chasing his losses... probably a few times a year assuming two draws a week.

    And the first time he walks in to place a 10960 bet he has a 25% chance of seeing another 7 or 8 weeks without a win and being forced to bet a seven figure sum.

    Total and utter insanity,


  • Registered Users Posts: 45,277 ✭✭✭✭Bobeagleburger


    Quicket way to the poorhouse.

    Assuming your number didn't come out your stakes would be:

    After 5 draws - €160
    After 10 draws - €5120
    After 15 draws - €163,840
    After 20 draws - €5,242,880

    and one for the road

    After 25 draws - €167,772,160.

    Yeah good system alright :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,512 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    rarnes1 wrote: »
    Quicket way to the poorhouse.

    Assuming your number didn't come out your stakes would be:

    After 5 draws - €160
    After 10 draws - €5120
    After 15 draws - €163,840
    After 20 draws - €5,242,880

    and one for the road

    After 25 draws - €167,772,160.

    Yeah good system alright :D

    Plus i'd imagine somewhere between the 5th and 7th draws that the bookies would decline the bet. Then you'd have to start spliting the bet between different bookies more and more every time. I'm sure it was a good idea when yer man came up with it at the bar :pac:
    Seriously though why double the stake ever draw :confused:
    Why not ever 3 draws if he really wants to try his "new system" out?
    Smaller profit but at least after 25 draws you're betting 1280 instead of heading towards the billion mark :eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 976 ✭✭✭supremenovice


    I have followed Lotto numbers before.
    I can remember the number 8 going over 60 draws without appearing.
    I kept backing it until it came out, increasing my stake a little at a time, but I didnt keep doubling up like your friend does.
    Its a road to the poor/nut house if you ask me.

    At the moment I back the bonus number on PP.com. 38/1 to predict the correct number. If youve been looking at the After-Timing thread youll see Ive won a few quid on it over the last couple of months. I fully recommend it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,009 ✭✭✭✭L'prof


    If you multiple your current stake by 1.2 every time you lose instead of 2, the following table indicates your stakes (at each level) and profits:

    Bet|Stake|Returns|Overall Profit
    1|€5.00|€30.00|€25.00
    2|€6.00|€36.00|€25.00
    3|€7.20|€43.20|€25.00
    4|€8.64|€51.84|€25.00
    5|€10.37|€62.21|€25.00
    6|€12.44|€74.65|€25.00
    7|€14.93|€89.58|€25.00
    8|€17.92|€107.50|€25.00
    9|€21.50|€128.99|€25.00
    10|€25.80|€154.79|€25.00
    11|€30.96|€185.75|€25.00
    12|€37.15|€222.90|€25.00
    13|€44.58|€267.48|€25.00
    14|€53.50|€320.98|€25.00
    15|€64.20|€385.18|€25.00
    16|€77.04|€462.21|€25.00
    17|€92.44|€554.65|€25.00
    18|€110.93|€665.58|€25.00
    19|€133.12|€798.70|€25.00
    20|€159.74|€958.44|€25.00
    21|€191.69|€1150.13|€25.00
    22|€230.03|€1380.15|€25.00
    23|€276.03|€1656.18|€25.00
    24|€331.24|€1987.42|€25.00
    25|€397.48|€2384.91|€25.00
    26|€476.98|€2861.89|€25.00
    27|€572.38|€3434.26|€25.00
    28|€686.85|€4121.12|€25.00
    29|€824.22|€4945.34|€25.00
    30|€989.07|€5934.41|€25.00
    31|€1186.88|€7121.29|€25.00
    32|€1424.26|€8545.55|€25.00
    33|€1709.11|€10254.66|€25.00
    34|€2050.93|€12305.59|€25.00
    35|€2461.12|€14766.71|€25.00
    36|€2953.34|€17720.05|€25.00
    37|€3544.01|€21264.06|€25.00
    38|€4252.81|€25516.87|€25.00
    39|€5103.37|€30620.24|€25.00
    40|€6124.05|€36744.29|€25.00
    41|€7348.86|€44093.15|€25.00
    42|€8818.63|€52911.78|€25.00
    43|€10582.36|€63494.13|€25.00
    44|€12698.83|€76192.96|€25.00
    45|€15238.59|€91431.55|€25.00
    46|€18286.31|€109717.86|€25.00
    47|€21943.57|€131661.43|€25.00
    48|€26332.29|€157993.72|€25.00
    49|€31598.74|€189592.46|€25.00
    50|€37918.49|€227510.95|€25.00
    51|€45502.19|€273013.14|€25.00
    52|€54602.63|€327615.77|€25.00
    53|€65523.15|€393138.93|€25.00
    54|€78627.79|€471766.71|€25.00
    55|€94353.34|€566120.06|€25.00
    56|€113224.01|€679344.07|€25.00
    57|€135868.81|€815212.88|€25.00
    58|€163042.58|€978255.46|€25.00
    59|€195651.09|€1173906.55|€25.00
    60|€234781.31|€1408687.86|€25.00
    61|€281737.57|€1690425.43|€25.00
    62|€338085.09|€2028510.52|€25.00
    63|€405702.10|€2434212.62|€25.00
    64|€486842.52|€2921055.14|€25.00
    65|€584211.03|€3505266.17|€25.00
    66|€701053.23|€4206319.41|€25.00
    67|€841263.88|€5047583.29|€25.00
    68|€1009516.66|€6057099.95|€25.00
    69|€1211419.99|€7268519.94|€25.00
    70|€1453703.99|€8722223.92|€25.00
    71|€1744444.78|€10466668.71|€25.00
    72|€2093333.74|€12560002.45|€25.00
    73|€2512000.49|€15072002.94|€25.00
    74|€3014400.59|€18086403.53|€25.00
    75|€3617280.71|€21703684.23|€25.00
    76|€4340736.85|€26044421.08|€25.00
    77|€5208884.22|€31253305.30|€25.00
    78|€6250661.06|€37503966.35|€25.00
    79|€7500793.27|€45004759.63|€25.00
    80|€9000951.93|€54005711.55|€25.00
    81|€10801142.31|€64806853.86|€25.00
    82|€12961370.77|€77768224.63|€25.00
    83|€15553644.93|€93321869.56|€25.00
    84|€18664373.91|€111986243.47|€25.00
    85|€22397248.69|€134383492.16|€25.00
    86|€26876698.43|€161260190.60|€25.00
    87|€32252038.12|€193512228.72|€25.00
    88|€38702445.74|€232214674.46|€25.00
    89|€46442934.89|€278657609.35|€25.00
    90|€55731521.87|€334389131.22|€25.00
    91|€66877826.24|€401266957.47|€25.00
    92|€80253391.49|€481520348.96|€25.00
    93|€96304069.79|€577824418.75|€25.00
    94|€115564883.75|€693389302.50|€25.00
    95|€138677860.50|€832067163.01|€25.00
    96|€166413432.60|€998480595.61|€25.00
    97|€199696119.12|€1198176714.73|€25.00
    98|€239635342.95|€1437812057.67|€25.00
    99|€287562411.53|€1725374469.21|€25.00
    100|€345074893.84|€2070449363.05|€25.00

    Whereas 1.25 would be the following:

    Bet|Stake|Returns|Overall Profit
    1|€5.00|€30.00|€25.00
    2|€6.25|€37.50|€26.25
    3|€7.81|€46.88|€27.81
    4|€9.77|€58.59|€29.77
    5|€12.21|€73.24|€32.21
    6|€15.26|€91.55|€35.26
    7|€19.07|€114.44|€39.07
    8|€23.84|€143.05|€43.84
    9|€29.80|€178.81|€49.80
    10|€37.25|€223.52|€57.25
    11|€46.57|€279.40|€66.57
    12|€58.21|€349.25|€78.21
    13|€72.76|€436.56|€92.76
    14|€90.95|€545.70|€110.95
    15|€113.69|€682.12|€133.69
    16|€142.11|€852.65|€162.11
    17|€177.64|€1065.81|€197.64
    18|€222.04|€1332.27|€242.04
    19|€277.56|€1665.33|€297.56
    20|€346.94|€2081.67|€366.94
    21|€433.68|€2602.09|€453.68
    22|€542.10|€3252.61|€562.10
    23|€677.63|€4065.76|€697.63
    24|€847.03|€5082.20|€867.03
    25|€1058.79|€6352.75|€1078.79
    26|€1323.49|€7940.93|€1343.49
    27|€1654.36|€9926.17|€1674.36
    28|€2067.95|€12407.71|€2087.95
    29|€2584.94|€15509.64|€2604.94
    30|€3231.17|€19387.05|€3251.17
    31|€4038.97|€24233.81|€4058.97
    32|€5048.71|€30292.26|€5068.71
    33|€6310.89|€37865.32|€6330.89
    34|€7888.61|€47331.65|€7908.61
    35|€9860.76|€59164.57|€9880.76
    36|€12325.95|€73955.71|€12345.95
    37|€15407.44|€92444.64|€15427.44
    38|€19259.30|€115555.80|€19279.30
    39|€24074.12|€144444.75|€24094.12
    40|€30092.66|€180555.93|€30112.66
    41|€37615.82|€225694.92|€37635.82
    42|€47019.77|€282118.64|€47039.77
    43|€58774.72|€352648.31|€58794.72
    44|€73468.40|€440810.38|€73488.40
    45|€91835.50|€551012.98|€91855.50
    46|€114794.37|€688766.22|€114814.37
    47|€143492.96|€860957.78|€143512.96
    48|€179366.20|€1076197.22|€179386.20
    49|€224207.75|€1345246.53|€224227.75
    50|€280259.69|€1681558.16|€280279.69
    51|€350324.62|€2101947.70|€350344.62
    52|€437905.77|€2627434.62|€437925.77
    53|€547382.21|€3284293.28|€547402.21
    54|€684227.77|€4105366.59|€684247.77
    55|€855284.71|€5131708.24|€855304.71
    56|€1069105.88|€6414635.30|€1069125.88
    57|€1336382.36|€8018294.13|€1336402.36
    58|€1670477.94|€10022867.66|€1670497.94
    59|€2088097.43|€12528584.58|€2088117.43
    60|€2610121.79|€15660730.72|€2610141.79
    61|€3262652.23|€19575913.40|€3262672.23
    62|€4078315.29|€24469891.75|€4078335.29
    63|€5097894.12|€30587364.69|€5097914.12
    64|€6372367.64|€38234205.87|€6372387.64
    65|€7965459.56|€47792757.33|€7965479.56
    66|€9956824.44|€59740946.67|€9956844.44
    67|€12446030.56|€74676183.33|€12446050.56
    68|€15557538.19|€93345229.17|€15557558.19
    69|€19446922.74|€116681536.46|€19446942.74
    70|€24308653.43|€145851920.57|€24308673.43
    71|€30385816.79|€182314900.72|€30385836.79
    72|€37982270.98|€227893625.90|€37982290.98
    73|€47477838.73|€284867032.37|€47477858.73
    74|€59347298.41|€356083790.47|€59347318.41
    75|€74184123.01|€445104738.08|€74184143.01
    76|€92730153.77|€556380922.60|€92730173.77
    77|€115912692.21|€695476153.25|€115912712.21
    78|€144890865.26|€869345191.57|€144890885.26
    79|€181113581.58|€1086681489.46|€181113601.58
    80|€226391976.97|€1358351861.82|€226391996.97
    81|€282989971.21|€1697939827.28|€282989991.21
    82|€353737464.02|€2122424784.10|€353737484.02
    83|€442171830.02|€2653030980.13|€442171850.02
    84|€552714787.53|€3316288725.16|€552714807.53
    85|€690893484.41|€4145360906.45|€690893504.41
    86|€863616855.51|€5181701133.06|€863616875.51
    87|€1079521069.39|€6477126416.32|€1079521089.39
    88|€1349401336.73|€8096408020.40|€1349401356.73
    89|€1686751670.92|€10120510025.50|€1686751690.92
    90|€2108439588.65|€12650637531.88|€2108439608.65
    91|€2635549485.81|€15813296914.85|€2635549505.81
    92|€3294436857.26|€19766621143.56|€3294436877.26
    93|€4118046071.57|€24708276429.45|€4118046091.57
    94|€5147557589.47|€30885345536.81|€5147557609.47
    95|€6434446986.84|€38606681921.01|€6434447006.84
    96|€8043058733.54|€48258352401.26|€8043058753.54
    97|€10053823416.93|€60322940501.58|€10053823436.93
    98|€12567279271.16|€75403675626.97|€12567279291.16
    99|€15709099088.95|€94254594533.72|€15709099108.95
    100|€19636373861.19|€117818243167.15|€19636373881.19


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  • Registered Users Posts: 407 ✭✭modmuffin


    I cant remember the exact %'s on how long it took for numbers to come up, but it was something like,
    75% of numbers come up within 25 draws (7 number draw)
    80% within 30 draws
    90% within 40 draws
    99% within 50 draws

    Once a number has gone 20 draws without coming up I start betting on it, increasing my stake by 20-25% each time.
    ie id go €5, €6, €7.50, €9.50, €12 etc

    When 2 or 3 numbers reached 20 draws together id back each double (35/1) and treble (300/1)

    I did reasonably ok with it, over 2 years my profit was approx €2.5k, the bulk of this coming (about €2k) from 3 trebles and a good few doubles i had come up in that period.

    I stopped doing it earlier this year, number 43 went for about 55 draws (the longest ever in the history of the lotto), at the same time 4 other numbers were up and they all went to around 25-30 draws.

    In the end i quit on number 43 after draw 50, altogether including money lost on doubles & trebles it cost me about €3.5k.
    IT was pretty stressful as I didnt have as much expendable income as previously and resulted in me taking out a loan to pay off my maxed out credit card.

    My advice, if you have a pot of cash and the discipline to stick rigidly to a system as above, then you will grind out a profit. Eventually a rogue number will come along and wipe you out unless you set a cap on the number of draws you will go to and stick to it (easier said than done)

    Would i do it again?...probably not. (cant afford it right now anyway)

    Best of luck anyway

    PS: IT WOULD BE LUNACY TO PICK A RANDOM NUMBER AND START AT 0, A LOT OF NUMBERS HIT 20 - 30 DRAWS WITHOUT COMING UP. I PRETTY MUCH ALWAYS HAD A NUMBER ON THE GO FOR ~ 2 YEARS


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,377 ✭✭✭Warper


    modmuffin wrote: »
    I cant remember the exact %'s on how long it took for numbers to come up, but it was something like,
    75% of numbers come up within 25 draws (7 number draw)
    80% within 30 draws
    90% within 40 draws
    99% within 50 draws

    Once a number has gone 20 draws without coming up I start betting on it, increasing my stake by 20-25% each time.
    ie id go €5, €6, €7.50, €9.50, €12 etc

    When 2 or 3 numbers reached 20 draws together id back each double (35/1) and treble (300/1)

    I did reasonably ok with it, over 2 years my profit was approx €2.5k, the bulk of this coming (about €2k) from 3 trebles and a good few doubles i had come up in that period.

    I stopped doing it earlier this year, number 43 went for about 55 draws (the longest ever in the history of the lotto), at the same time 4 other numbers were up and they all went to around 25-30 draws.

    In the end i quit on number 43 after draw 50, altogether including money lost on doubles & trebles it cost me about €3.5k.
    IT was pretty stressful as I didnt have as much expendable income as previously and resulted in me taking out a loan to pay off my maxed out credit card.

    My advice, if you have a pot of cash and the discipline to stick rigidly to a system as above, then you will grind out a profit. Eventually a rogue number will come along and wipe you out unless you set a cap on the number of draws you will go to and stick to it (easier said than done)

    Would i do it again?...probably not. (cant afford it right now anyway)

    Best of luck anyway

    PS: IT WOULD BE LUNACY TO PICK A RANDOM NUMBER AND START AT 0, A LOT OF NUMBERS HIT 20 - 30 DRAWS WITHOUT COMING UP. I PRETTY MUCH ALWAYS HAD A NUMBER ON THE GO FOR ~ 2 YEARS

    Jesus man, after the first bit I thought not a bad idea, then i got to the last bit and it sounds like a headfcuk of a way to gamble. As you say all it takes is one number to break the whole cycle. You must have been very interested in the Lotto during that period and have a general hate for the number 43 after it. I can just imagine asking someone every Wed/Sat "Did no. 43 come up"?. Good story though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,428 ✭✭✭Trampas


    reminds me of the arguments that i have as much a chance of winning the lotto with numbers 1-6 as you have with 6 other random numbers


  • Registered Users Posts: 373 ✭✭fatherbuzcagney


    my friend uses the winning numbers that come out on Wednesday nights and plays them on Saturday nights, his theory is that if they can come up once they could come out again? So to hit the jackpot he needs the winning numbers to be drawn two draws running.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,957 ✭✭✭3DataModem


    Trampas wrote: »
    reminds me of the arguments that i have as much a chance of winning the lotto with numbers 1-6 as you have with 6 other random numbers

    Yes but you will win a LOT less with 1-6... hundreds of people use these numbers.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,377 ✭✭✭Warper


    3DataModem wrote: »
    Yes but you will win a LOT less with 1-6... hundreds of people use these numbers.

    No's 1-6 is the most popular selection for the Lotto. If those no's come up you would win fcuk all.


  • Registered Users Posts: 407 ✭✭modmuffin


    Warper wrote: »
    Jesus man, after the first bit I thought not a bad idea, then i got to the last bit and it sounds like a headfcuk of a way to gamble. As you say all it takes is one number to break the whole cycle. You must have been very interested in the Lotto during that period and have a general hate for the number 43 after it. I can just imagine asking someone every Wed/Sat "Did no. 43 come up"?. Good story though.

    Yeah it was pretty sick when a number went on longer than 35-40 draws.

    With 43 i actually found myself watching the lotto and screaming at the telly.
    I had always said that id cut my losses and quit at 40 draws, turns out its pretty hard to do when you've invested a bit of a cash into a number (especially when the fear that it will come up the next draw kicks in).
    My last bet on number 43 was about €500 i think, the girl in the bookies just looked at me like WTF!

    I actually dont think its too bad a system if you can set a limit for how long you will follow a number and stick to it, but its a bit of a grind and i cant see myself ever doing it again.
    (having said that if 43 hadve come up sooner id probably still be at it!!)


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,809 ✭✭✭jacool


    Warper wrote: »
    No's 1-6 is the most popular selection for the Lotto. If those no's come up you would win fcuk all.
    that and the LOST numbers
    they matched 5 once in Ireland and the payout was tiny compared to the average €1000 for a match 5. the 6th number out was either 24 or 42. One of them is the 6th LOST number and its reverse came out. had they got the 6 the payout would have been embarrassingly low!


  • Registered Users Posts: 191 ✭✭dougal-maguire


    im giving this a go,starting with small bets on numbers that have gone 20+ draws without coming out.going alright so far,the profit is small but the system works.what is the max bet you can put on a number with paddy power?


  • Registered Users Posts: 407 ✭✭modmuffin


    im giving this a go,starting with small bets on numbers that have gone 20+ draws without coming out.going alright so far,the profit is small but the system works.what is the max bet you can put on a number with paddy power?

    I never checked but i think its €300, but theres nothing to stop you putting a few hundred on online, €300 in one shop and another €300 in the shop down the road etc

    Ive used the system for over 2 years and did quite well, occassionally a treble hits which is where the money is at. If you have an UNLIMITED budget then you'll do fine, but at some stage a number will come along that goes for over 50 draws and you need to be prepared for that or you will be wiped out.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Just did the lotto for the second time ever tonight,can't wait to win.


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