The Luckys' Log

Verance

Lucky 15s, 31s and 63s that is. Idea being if I can find value on all selections, multiplying value by value = massive returns, also taking advantage of bonuses for all selections winning and treble odds for one winner.

Will be concentrating on 8, 9, 10 runner races as getting 6 placed in a Lucky 63 means a very tidy profit without any winners.

Small stakes for big wins, planning to get a Lucky 63 up every 5000 tries

Some great racing tomorrow to kick-off.

x PyRo

Best of luck dude, should be fun.

scopper

Verance wrote: »

Lucky 15s, 31s and 63s that is. Idea being if I can find value on all selections, multiplying value by value = massive returns, also taking advantage of bonuses for all selections winning and treble odds for one winner.

Quite close to my own betting style although I tend toward trebles on 5-6 choices these days. The problem with luckies is that you have to sustain a consistently high loss rate. So if you have decent stakes (say a 1ex15 for a lucky15) that is 15e a day...but if you stick on lower stakes of 0.20 cents etc. then you really need unprobable outcomes like a 5 fold accum or maybe a triggered four folds. Just a warning as it is pretty much how I go about things :pac:

Not sure if its polite to ask but what stakes do you have in mind (no need to answer if its private tho I suspect it'll be low give the kind of bet?).

Good luck!

My own selection tomo is Stike up the band (10/1), Clockmaker (11/2), Holberg (11/4) and Recession Proof (11/1) on trebles (50c e/w cost 4e). I don't normally post my selections but they mite help if you have to pick a lot of horses. Keep in mind these are picked for value v chances. My proper picks would be different but for the small bet like this it is not worth it IMO because you really need at least two large odds coming in to hit the jackpot - otherwise you get the same return for normal bets but at a less ratio. Can you tell I'm a mathematician yet

Verance

Nice one lads. Will be keeping the stakes low (for me) for the time being, well aware that there'll be long losing streaks so hopefully one will click early doors

For today I've a win Lucky 15 and an each way I'll update soon.

Lucky 15 with stan james:
Reckless Reward 2.15 Kempton 9/1
Music show 2.40 Leopardstown 9/4
Beat Langtry and Spacious in the Falmouth and only found Goldikova too good last time out. Would be surprised if Lillie Langtry could reverse form just coming back after a break.
Cape Blanco 3.45 Leopardstown 7/1
Was a clear second behind Harbinger in the King George, mile and quarter on fast ground should really suit, can definitely oppose Rip van winkle at odds on giving 7lbs to his stablemate.
Ginger Jack 4.05 Thirsk 11/4
Lots of dead wood in the race, Ginger Jack is the only one hard to oppose.

Verance

Kingsgate Native 3.35 Haydock 9/1
Cityscape 2.00 Haydock 5/1
Will have to oppose Awzaan coming back from a break and not proven over a mile, Cityscape should love the ground and should go close.
Souheaster 2.10 Leopardstown 6/1
Probably out of his depth last two races but didn't do badly in the Coronation, should place at least.
Laaheb 2.45 Kempton 11/4
Should be fav imo, fine listed win in June, form of Holberg's Goodwood win hasn't worked out at all.
E/W luck 15 with Laddies(in shop).

Borderlescott 3.35 Haydock 12/1
Cityscape 2.00 Haydock 5/1
Souheaster 2.10 Leopardstown 6/1
Laaheb 2.45 Kempton 11/4
E/W luck 15 Laddies.

Opposing Starspangled, think he's very short after such a tough season, Borderlescott did well in the Nunthorpe having been ruled out for the season a month earlier and Kingsgate ran no race in the Nunthorpe but back to 6 furlongs with Ryan Moore back up can get back to his July Cup form when he was beaten by under 2 lengths by Starspangled.

Verance

Not bad, 3 winners, 2 placed and 4 unplaced.
Get stake back on the win Lucky 15 (Thanks to double odds one winner) and the other two return 55.73 for a 1 unit stake.
So, total stake of 75 returns 126.46

scopper

Verance wrote: »

Not bad, 3 winners, 2 placed and 4 unplaced.
Get stake back on the win Lucky 15 (Thanks to double odds one winner) and the other two return 55.73 for a 1 unit stake.
So, total stake of 75 returns 126.46

That's how its done

Verance

Joe Rua 1.40 Fontwell 15/2
Won on hurdling debut last time, only one of two to have won over hurdles, thought it'd be clear second favourite.
Risk Challenge 1.50 Worcester 4/1
Finally the penny seems to be dropping over fences, could bolt up with a clear round.
Synthe Davis 2.45 Fontwell 2/1
Came within a neck of Quo Video here last time, looks pick on form.
Lope de Vega 2.43 Longchamp 5/2
French Guineas are Derby double winner, could be the best horse in the race.
E/W lucky 15 Stan James.

Verance

Gonna throw Valerius Maximus in with the ablove selections for an extra e/w Lucky 31 on Stan James @ 6/4. Hugh says it should be odds on and I agree 2.35 York!

Verance

Uh oh, unseated rider, pulled up, unplaced, and a 2/1 winner

62 returns 11.52 for the Lucky 31 and 30 returns 8.67 for the Lucky 15.

Verance

Ooh got a few nice ones today, for a Monday!
Silk Bounty 2.20 Newcastle @ 33/1
Nice debut at Wolverhampton, raced up with the pace only falling back in the final furlong and running green, still finished respectably. Drops in trip today and switch to turf could bring about improvement.
Holden Caulfield 2.30 Newton Abbot @ 25/1
In with every chance on his form here 3 runs ago, UR and PU since then though, looks good value. If he completes he's bang there.
Kijivu 4.30 Newton Abbot @ 6/1
Rise of 8 pounds for winning at Fontwell makes this more difficult but he won that so well he's worth chancing at the 6/1 mark.
Am I Blue 5.30 Newton Abbot @ 4/5
Rated 100 4 runs ago, got back to winning ways last time landing a huge gamble. Running off 83 today with a 7 pound penalty, still looks well in to me.
E/W Lucky 15 with Stan James.

scopper

A bold lucky there. If you got a hit with any of the first 3 you should be safe to get Am I Blue as well - certainly expect a place there. Also like Holden Caulfield tho not my kind of race so I won't be putting money on it.

Verance

scopper wrote: »

A bold lucky there. If you got a hit with any of the first 3 you should be safe to get Am I Blue as well - certainly expect a place there. Also like Holden Caulfield tho not my kind of race so I won't be putting money on it.

Bold or foolish! 30 returns 18.24, happy with the runs though. Holden Caulfield backed into 12s and not disgraced in 5th and I liked Silk Bounty, ran prominently and just faded in the final furlong again just missing out on the place. Am I Blue hoses up by 23 lengths, that shoulder operation cetainly did the trick!

Verance

Galtymore Lad 3.10 Doncaster 7/1
Can't see why Wooton Bassett should be 4 times shorter today, Richard Fahey has said that on form Wooton Bassett hasn't a hope of beating Galtymore Lad, running 8lbs better off for a 1 and 3/4 length defeat.
Custom House 6.15 kempton 11/4
Showed improvement on his second appearance, if he improves as much this time will be very hard to beat.
Warling 3.45 Doncaster 25/1
Been crying out for a step up in trip, very well bred, ground perfect!
Penny's Pearl 4.20 Doncaster 16/1
May be stable second string but couldn't be having Eucharist at 4 times shorter, had a go at listed level before and wasn't disgraced, will have to improve but step down to 6 furlongs should bring that.
E/W Lucky 15 Stan James.

Verance

30 returns 15.06, can't wait to get a big one of these up

L'prof

Verance wrote: »

30 returns 15.06, can't wait to get a big one of these up

What's the average return for 4 winners?

Verance

Say 5/1, 6/1, 10/1 and 16/1 winners for €1 each way costing €30 will return €12,000!

L'prof

Verance wrote: »

Say 5/1, 6/1, 10/1 and 16/1 winners for €1 each way costing €30 will return €12,000!

Fairly tasty! You're not down too much at the moment, are you?

Verance

227 staked, 180 returned so far... not good but waiting on a big one Can get some tasty returns if you have 4 placed in a lucky 15 too.. 30 would return 300 odd at the odds i used above!

L'prof

Verance wrote: »

227 staked, 180 returned so far... not good but waiting on a big one Can get some tasty returns if you have 4 placed in a lucky 15 too!! 30 would return 300 odd at the odds i used above!

That's not bad at all, best of luck with it...I'll be cursing you (and myself for not following you) when you win

Verance

Zuider Zee 2.05 Donny 8/1
Races on 11lbs better terms with Mount Athos, I think they'll be 1-2 here but take a chance on Zuider.
Milldown Magic 2.15 Sandown 12/1
Showed ability in 2 starts in May and I certainly be looking for a place.
Mortrice 2.30 Donny 9/2
Extra half mile, ground, age allowance, all in her favour.
Arc Light 3.25 Sandown 4/1
Gone off fav in both starts, showed enough lto beaten by Cai Shen (won again since) to suggest he can take this.
Space War 4.00 Sandown 10/1
Disappointed lto at the July Meeting but if excuse that run his first two runs are good enough to take this.
E/W Lucky 31 Bet365.

Verance

62 returns 2.12 Now that was a poor one, I'll try not to lose heart!

Verance

Joshua Tree 3.20 Donny 11/1
Huge effort lto after a year off the track, really top class colt, if he improves on that run has to be placed, wouldn't be shocked if he reversed form with Midas Touch and Rewilding.
Glor na Mara 3.10 Curragh 8/1
Wasn't beaten far by fav and 2nd fav previously, really consistent, should place.
Kite Wood 3.45 Curragh 8/1
Horrible run lto but too bad to be true, if he's back he's back, worth the chance at that price!
Fox Hunt 4.30 Sandown 9/2
Really lightly raced and with natural improvement from his handicap debut he's bang there, should be fav imo.
E/W Lucky 15 in shop with Laddies.

Verance

Horrible horrible bet, and I was gonna put Arctic Cosmos in :mad: Wouldn't have made much difference anyway I suppose! -30. Good day of betting though!

Verance

Mama Lulu 1.40 Yarmouth 11/4
Should be evens?? Rated 76 definitely sets the standard. Anyone backing Panoptic at odds on could very well be mad.
Al Rannan 2.10 Yarmouth 20/1
Racing off a featherweight, step up in trip should see improvement, decent efforts last month, no clear run lto, can improve
Karate 2.30 Haydock 7/2
Lots of dead wood in the race, would have to side with a newcomer.
Al Rayannah 3.10 Yarmouth 10/3
All wins came at this trip, last one over c&d, will enjoy the bit of give in the ground.
Exopuntia 3.40 Yarmouth 5/2
This is a related bet really, Exopuntia having beaten Al Rayannah lto at this track, 4lb rise for that win looks fair.
E/w Lucky 31 Stan James.

Verance

Going to go against the ''draw bias'' at Ayr and hope there isn't one Going stick readings have been very contradictary over the week. Both drawn low and both drifting!
Advanced 2.15 Ayr 20/1
Lots of pace around this one, Gold Cup winner 3 years ago.
Rileyskeepingfaith 3.20 Ayr 25/1
Some really impressive efforts this year, placing in the Great St Wilfrid and Steward's Cup, very consistent.
Simenon 3.30 Newmarket 12/1
Getting the weight allowance, should place at least if he stays the trip. Very interesting that he ran in the Great Voltigeur with Hugh Taylor rubbishing that form due to the early pace which Simenon was up with. Contestedsome hot races this year and can take this today
Bubbly Bellini 6.20 Wolverhampton 11/1
Hopefully will be waiting on this one this evening for a bumper pay day All wins and places have come on the all weather, disappointed in Ireland in 4 races this year but a return to Wolverhampton can see him back to his best.
E/W Lucky 15 Stan James.