Cashback if Murray wins the US Open-is there money to be made?

shaggykev

I see Betpack are refunding all losing outright bets if Murray wins( as a free bet)

Now let me start, I have always thought if murray was going to win one, it would be the US Open but his odds don't exactly reflect his true chance imo

however would it be a wise investment to back Federer or Nadal to win then at 11/5 and 3/1, dutched they pay in-between 8/11 and 4/5 and you have the added security if murray wins it, you get your stake back as a free bet

Good offer or are the big two and Murray vulnerable form something from the pack?

Cheers guys, not a huge tennis backer

thedini

Federer may not be quite the force he once was but there aren't really any players out their that are actually capable of beating him at the US Open. Del Potro did it last year in a once in a lifetime type match.

Prior to that Federer won 5 in a row, the only man do to this in the modern era. Nadal has never reached the US Open final and I would discount him on this basis.

Murray is probably his biggest threat here and taking this into account I will be backing Federer fairly heavy and having a decent saver on Murray.

PhatPiggins

OK what are the alternatives:

Nadal - easily his worst surface. Will do well to make the semi's

Murray - starting to play at his best and spanked Federer in Toronto a couple of weeks ago. Final at worst

Djokovic - serving is a bit erratic, but is again starting to play well as the season winds down. Has a better chance then Nadal

Soderling/Berdych - both good on the surface but both hit and miss form wise

Nalbandian - still coming back from injury but is reaching peak form and can beat any of the top 5 players on his day

Federer has become hard to read these days as he's a different animal in the Slams but I genuinely believe he's starting to fade. I'd say there's an 85% chance it'll be a Fed/Murray final and if by some chance its not then the one that does make it will beat the surprise finalists,imo.

In short betting on Fed with betpack and sticking a saver on Murray on the exchanges looks a very solid plan to me.

whatsupdoc?

Can't see anyone outside of Fed or Nadal winning it.
Think Betpack are safe enough with the Murray Free bet promo.

radharc

PhatPiggins wrote: »

OK what are the alternatives:

Nadal - easily his worst surface. Will do well to make the semi's

Murray - starting to play at his best and spanked Federer in Toronto a couple of weeks ago. Final at worst

Djokovic - serving is a bit erratic, but is again starting to play well as the season winds down. Has a better chance then Nadal

Soderling/Berdych - both good on the surface but both hit and miss form wise

Nalbandian - still coming back from injury but is reaching peak form and can beat any of the top 5 players on his day

Federer has become hard to read these days as he's a different animal in the Slams but I genuinely believe he's starting to fade. I'd say there's an 85% chance it'll be a Fed/Murray final and if by some chance its not then the one that does make it will beat the surprise finalists,imo.

In short betting on Fed with betpack and sticking a saver on Murray on the exchanges looks a very solid plan to me.

Great post Phat, agree with nearly everything but I don't think there's any value in the top 4's prices, have backed Berdych and Fish at big odds myself.

PhatPiggins

radharc wrote: »

Great post Phat, agree with nearly everything but I don't think there's any value in the top 4's prices, have backed Berdych and Fish at big odds myself.

True enough, Berdych is having a great year and has been generally excellent in the slams. I think hard courts are his favourite too so you could do worse then the 25/1 on him.

I think the final draw is being released today. I'll probably back two of Nalbandian/Berdych/Baghdatis/Fish depending on their routes with a view to trading.

Should be a cracker the last two masters events have seen all of the top 5 players drop sets and lose matches unexpectedly so hopefully there'll be a few surprises