EUArabia 22nd Century

Liberalbrehon

By the end of the century if current trends continue, ethnic Europeans will be in the minority in the EU, some commentators think it will happen a lot sooner by 2050. Current birthrates would have Muslim birthrate at several times that of a European which is approximately 1.3. Also with immigration into EU.
Personally I think European Western liberal civilization is on a downward trend. One commentator has given or highlighted that Europe has 3 choices or possible outcomes.
1. Submit to Islam,
2. Get rid of Islam by any means necessary out of Europe
3. Get Islam to change internally so it is very secular. This would seem very difficult as Saudi Arabia has been able to export Wahhabism around the world with the oil money. They own huge amount of real estate in Europe etc.
The writing is on the wall unless Ethnic Europeans start having lots of babies.
Jews are already leaving Malmö due to the size of Muslim population. There are lots of other Muslim conclaves in Europe
Will this be good or bad for Europe?

http://www.haaretz.com/jewish-world/jews-reluctantly-abandon-swedish-city-amid-growing-anti-semitism-1.301276

seamus

Liberalbrehon wrote: »

By the end of the century if current trends continue, ethnic Europeans will be in the minority in the EU, some commentators think it will happen a lot sooner by 2050. Current birthrates would have Muslim birthrate at several times that of a European which is approximately 1.3. Also with immigration into EU.

[citation needed]

Liberalism/conservatism operates on a pendulum basis. We will slowly become more conservative and hardline over the next few years (recessions tend to do that).

Westernisation also creates something of a liberal effect in communities though too. When you give people the freedom to do what they want, they tend to do that. There's little comparison between English Muslims and Turkish Muslims, for example. The English Muslims would be among the most moderate in the world, and you'll even find that as the generations go by, they will become more and more moderate to the point where they're simply Islamic by ethnicity and not by nature. A bit like Irish "Catholics".

Liberalbrehon

seamus wrote: »

[citation needed]

Liberalism/conservatism operates on a pendulum basis. We will slowly become more conservative and hardline over the next few years (recessions tend to do that).

Westernisation also creates something of a liberal effect in communities though too. When you give people the freedom to do what they want, they tend to do that. There's little comparison between English Muslims and Turkish Muslims, for example. The English Muslims would be among the most moderate in the world, and you'll even find that as the generations go by, they will become more and more moderate to the point where they're simply Islamic by ethnicity and not by nature. A bit like Irish "Catholics".

Yes that's a Christopher Hichens view of it alright however Mark Steyn would content that this isn't actually what is happening. Muslim ghettos mean there is less integration than 40 years ago. Basically, muslims become more muslim in these ghettos a bit like first generation Irish in America but much more so. The newer generation are much more radicalized by their religion because they are not integrating socially or economically with the larger community. I wouldn't be as optimistic as you but that's just me generally :-)

wes

Sorry, but what your saying is a long debunked myth, and Mark Steyn has no expertise in the area of demographics, and his nonsense has been long ago debunked by people who actually know what there talking about, and not just pulling figures from thin air.

Nodin

Why Fears Of A Muslim Takeover Are All Wrong

Analyzing the forecasts of an emerging 'Eurabia,' hostile to America and western values.

http://www.newsweek.com/2009/07/10/why-fears-of-a-muslim-takeover-are-all-wrong.html

Disproving the Muslim Demographics sums

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8189434.stm

This kind of 'they're outbreeding us' nonsense was very popular at the turn of the 19th century in relation to Slavs and Jews. Hopefully it won't take the same series of events to put an end to it.

seamus

What kind of figures have you thinking that Muslims will outnumber other "ethnicities" in Europe by 2050? Muslims are currently 4% of the European population. And that's ethnic muslims, not necessarily religious ones.

Population projections put the EU population at 515 million individuals by 2050. Do you really think the Muslim population will grow from 20 million at present to 260 million in 40 years? That's a growth of 1300%. In 2007, there were 200,000 asylum applications to the EU. Over 40 years, that's still only 8 million people, and most of them probably aren't muslim. So we can ignore immigration as a "source" of Muslims.

So, we have 20 million muslims and we need to inflate that to 260 million in 40 years, two generations.

That means that assuming 10 million Muslim "couples", they would each need to have 6 children, resulting in 60 million children (30 million couples) who in turn will also have to have 6 children, giving us 180 million Muslim children. Plus the other 80 million gives us our jackpot figure of 260 million.

But wait! While this has been going on, those pesky Europeans have been at it too. If you take the United Kingdom as the average EU fertility rate (1.82 children per mother), then the non-Muslims have managed to spawn 835 million children in two generations, added to the 500 million already in existence, and the non-muslim population is now 1.335 billion. So the Muslims are just 16% of the European population, not 50%+.

Of course, this is all just nonsense figures. We haven't even discounted the dead people. A birth rate of 6 children per woman is extraordinarily high and only occurs in places where there is little or no education. In Muslim "strongholds" the fertility rate is closer to 3.5 children per women and in Europe, ethnic Muslims are seeing the most dramatic decrease in birth rates, no doubt due to the effect of European culture on women's rights and the overall economic pressure associated with children.

The figures you've quoted just don't add up. Mark Steyn's arguments have been debunked numerous times in numerous places.

sirromo

seamus wrote:

Population projections put the EU population at 515 million individuals by 2050. Do you really think the Muslim population will grow from 20 million at present to 260 million in 40 years?

But who said that muslims would be in the majority? The point was that the indigenous European population could become a minority of Europe's population by 2050, not that muslims could be in the majority by 2050.

It's possible that no one group will form an overall majority of Europe's population in 2050. It's likely that the secular European majority, who are the dominant group in Europe today, will no longer be the dominant group 40 years from now.

Scofflaw

It's been pointed out, quite correctly, that this thread is based on a false premise - everything else aside, it is perfectly impossible to extrapolate population figures in this way and produce a meaningful result.

As such, this thread belongs in CT.

moderately,
Scofflaw

gizmo

Scofflaw wrote: »

...this thread is based on a false premise...As such, this thread belongs in CT.

I lol'd.

nullzero

Scofflaw wrote: »

As such, this thread belongs in CT.

Maybe the religious forum would be more appropriate?
We're not completely stupid over here, not all of us anyway.

fontanalis

EUArabia aka NeverNever Land

Oh, and all muslims are arabs now.

squod

Scofflaw wrote: »

It's been pointed out, quite correctly, that this thread is based on a false premise - everything else aside, it is perfectly impossible to extrapolate population figures in this way and produce a meaningful result.

As such, this thread belongs in CT.

moderately,
Scofflaw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ThQO7s087Cc

Jeboa Safari

nullzero wrote: »

Maybe the religious forum would be more appropriate?
We're not completely stupid over here, not all of us anyway.

Yeah unless the post is attacking America or Israel it doesnt belong here!

alastair

Jeboa Safari wrote: »

Yeah unless the post is attacking America or Israel it doesnt belong here!

It would be more widely known that Israel and the US have a monopoly on conspiracies, if it wasn't for the lizards and freemasons dumbing us all down with their fluoride and chemtrails.

Liberalbrehon

Well I'm glad to hear it's just a myth and won't happen. I've only just come across his arguments. It does seem somewhat plausible though by the 22nd century? Populations do rise and fall depending on circumstances and western populations have been falling alot over the last 30 years being propped up by immigration. Isn't the social welfare state premised on rising economic growth and population growth. If one doesn't happen, then it has a knock-on effect on the other. If population growth doesn't happen then Europe has to import young people to work and look after aging population. Interesting subject I think.

apologies if I put in wrong forum.

Scofflaw

nullzero wrote: »

Maybe the religious forum would be more appropriate?
We're not completely stupid over here, not all of us anyway.

There's a limit to the people I want to offend all in one go, though, and I'd much rather have people muttering darkly about me in corners than launching a combination crusade/jihad against me.

cordially,
Scofflaw

WakeUp

Scofflaw wrote: »

It's been pointed out, quite correctly, that this thread is based on a false premise - everything else aside, it is perfectly impossible to extrapolate population figures in this way and produce a meaningful result.

As such, this thread belongs in CT.

moderately,
Scofflaw

Could you not have just locked the thread pointed out to the OP your reasons for doing so and left it at that, instead of bouncing it over here with a sly dig incorporated into your reply. That is a bit of joke of a comment to be honest I would expect better from a CMod. So by your logic any and all threads started over here are based on a false "premise"? have I got that right?

Mahatma coat

thats it

I DEMAND an apology from 6th for my Previous banning.

humanji

Well, I think that's pretty much everyone insulted, so there's no longer a reason to keep this open.