Doomsday Scenario

Idbatterim

I was reading about the Bond markets earlier in the independent and it mentioned how they would not like to see a change in government, which I find very understandable, given the sh*t situation we are already in, isnt it almost inconceivable that Labor form any part of the next government? I would imagine the rates we pay for loans would immediately jump, adding more fuel to the fire. if we in any way renege on reducing the deficit, or pursue Labor policies, the country will be absolutely finished. Im am not affiliated with any political party, this is just my observation.

While I don't believe we should be allowing the bond markets to influence our own democratic choices, I think we would be absolute fools to go and vote for the "Ah sure everything's grand we don't need to make any cuts" party..

We will get what we deserve after the next election, the only question is if there will be any brains left in this country in another few years.

oppenheimer1

Rojomcdojo wrote: »

While I don't believe we should be allowing the bond markets to influence our own democratic choices, I think we would be absolute fools to go and vote for the "Ah sure everything's grand we don't need to make any cuts" party..

We will get what we deserve after the next election, the only question is if there will be any brains left in this country in another few years.

Well it would be foolish to ignore what they are saying. If they tell us that debt is going to be more expensive if we vote in Labour then it must be given due consideration. If we are going to be responsible as a nation we cannot vote for a party and think to hell with the consequences.

Voting in a Labour government will more than likely lead to a spike in the bond price and possibly an overall longterm higher plateau price (depending on their actions). Vote for Labour and its a consequence you are willing to accept.

murphaph

Then let us not vote for Labour and vote and vote strongly for a FG overall majority. It gets rid of FF. It keeps Labour out. It will not cure all our ills.

Brussels Sprout

murphaph wrote: »

Then let us not vote for Labour and vote and vote strongly for a FG overall majority. It gets rid of FF. It keeps Labour out. It will not cure all our ills.

Unfortunately given the lack of anyone else to vote for I have to agree with this.

labour's stance is incredible. I know they are heavily involved with unions but surely they have some economic experts in their party who know that reversing the cuts will only exacerbate the problems with the government finances. I haven't seen the details of Gimore's promises-how exactly did he say that he was planning on funding this policy?

Brussels Sprout

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Well it would be foolish to ignore what they are saying. If they tell us that debt is going to be more expensive if we vote in Labour then it must be given due consideration. If we are going to be responsible as a nation we cannot vote for a party and think to hell with the consequences.

Well they don't seem to be too happy with the current regime either. If it wasn't for the ECB intervening last week to buy up Irish bonds in the secondary market the yields would have risen even higher during the latest issue.

The government may not want to tackle the elephant in the room (welfare + public sector costs) for political reasons but someone will have to at some stage because those bond yields are only to go in one direction in the meantime.

The_Thing

Why would the bond markets not like to see a Labour government if it gave them an excuse to jack up the interest rates? Sounds like scaremongering.

I'll be voting for Labour - they don't even need an overall majority, just enough seats to keep FG on shaky ground and stop them from messing with the Unions.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Brussels Sprout

The_Thing wrote: »

Why would the bond markets not like to see a Labour government if it gave them an excuse to jack up the interest rates?

If the country goes bust and defaults on their loans the bond holders lose their shirts.

GSF

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Its a socialist government that is cutting in Greece. So I dont think what Labour says now is necessarily indicative of what they would do if they formed a majority government. The reality of office may change their tune. Who knows in reality?

Idbatterim

Its a socialist government in Greece that is being FORCED to cut. On the other hand and this sounds perverse and could be risky, we could all vote for Labour, they would no doubt finish the country right off, we would have to be bailed out, at the expense of huge reform to the way everything here is run and the ridiculous welfare and PS salaries, pensions etc etc etc... We have to look at,, who is the current situation benefiting? who are being most sheltered? Id start with PS workers and then move onto welfare, rent allowance, every bloody ENTITLEMENT going and there are alot of them, as we all know. Im sure there are even alot of posters on boards, that have possibly been let go and see the benefit in welfare cuts. Id argue that the more welfare gets cut, the better chance they have of getting a job, as we would become more competitive and some may emigrate. The funny thing is alot of areas of society probably see Labor as their savior, when infact, they will lead to their ruin ultimately. Im growing tied of this death by a thousands cuts.

Scarab80

GSF wrote: »

Its a socialist government that is cutting in Greece. So I dont think what Labour says now is necessarily indicative of what they would do if they formed a majority government. The reality of office may change their tune. Who knows in reality?

We can only go on what they have been saying in public and releasing in their policy documents. So far they have supported all union moves and sat on the fence in relation to Croke Park when it was unclear if the agreement would get member support.

They are advocating increasing the social welfare rate and increasing tax rates. Their entire stance on the banking crisis is "no no no" while not putting forward any alternative. While appealing to the public it's not really a policy you can implement.

They want to set up a state bank which will lend to people that the current banking sector won't lend to. Credit Crisis Mark II?

They may change if they get into office, but that is no way to vote ..... "i don't agree with anything these guys stand for but hopefully they won't do what they say they will".

FG seem like the only option at the moment and for once I would love to see a majority government who can implement their policies unimpeded by minority partners or local politics independents.

cyclopath2001

Idbatterim wrote: »

I was reading about the Bond markets earlier in the independent

Whoa there! Since when the the Irish Independent become a trustworthy source of information?

Idbatterim

regardless of whether I read the comments in the independent, times or wherever, it is obvious to anyone that we are being closely scrutinized & if Labor get into government, I can see us being like a runaway freight train no brakes!

hinault

Gilmore is a stickie and the kind of policies of the hard left would be more deterimental to this country than even the current govt's total and utter mismangement of this economy from 2001-now.

Unfortunately in this country we only have choice between dumb (FF/FG) and dumber (Labour/Greens/Sinn Fein/healy-rae) at present.

Sponge Bob

He made the central committee of the stickies too, musta been very very loyal when he was a young lad because there were an awful lot of stickies around back in the 1980s who never made the árd chomhairle central committee.

So they found him a nice seat to run for in 1987.

dan_d

Community and leisure facilities needed for the young - has this happened yet?
Legislation to stop builders and developers leaving estates unfinished.
Over 7000 people in DL out of work.

Over 20 years later and there are still items on that list that could be applied in an election today.

That's so wrong...

Nijmegen

It's all well and good saying "I don't want the markets to interfere in our democratic state...", but the thing is - they pay for our democratic state.

At the end of the day, it's not meddling in our democratic process. It's deciding if they want to lend us their money or not.

We don't have a right to borrow money.

hinault

Nijmegen wrote: »

It's all well and good saying "I don't want the markets to interfere in our democratic state...", but the thing is - they pay for our democratic state.

At the end of the day, it's not meddling in our democratic process. It's deciding if they want to lend us their money or not.

We don't have a right to borrow money.

Exactly.

Would you loan money to someone who's irresponsible?

liammur

Nijmegen wrote: »

It's all well and good saying "I don't want the markets to interfere in our democratic state...", but the thing is - they pay for our democratic state.

At the end of the day, it's not meddling in our democratic process. It's deciding if they want to lend us their money or not.

We don't have a right to borrow money.

Well the financial markets are undoubtedly exercising more influence than ever, and rightly so. As the previous poster points out they're forwarding the cash.
However, it's a little premature to suggest we would pay higher rates if we had a labour led government.

Nijmegen

liammur wrote: »

Well the financial markets are undoubtedly exercising more influence than ever, and rightly so. As the previous poster points out they're forwarding the cash.
However, it's a little premature to suggest we would pay higher rates if we had a labour led government.

They exercise more influence the higher % of our current spending they lend to us.

As to Labour, their stated policies run contrary to what the market has expressed it wants to see from countries like Ireland. It doesn't take a hedge fund manager to see what comes next.

liammur

Nijmegen wrote: »

They exercise more influence the higher % of our current spending they lend to us.

As to Labour, their stated policies run contrary to what the market has expressed it wants to see from countries like Ireland. It doesn't take a hedge fund manager to see what comes next.

Trust me, the markets suit themselves.
The bailout of Anglo was great from the markets point of view, because that in effect was bailing out the markets from disastrous decisions they made to lend to Anglo. Our position debt-wise wouldn't be as bad had we not bailed out Anglo.

whatawaster

Fine Gael, on the one hand have an exciting and detailed Healthcare policy

On the other hand:

“We can’t go back to the well this year to look for more tax increases or cuts in the capital programme, social welfare rates and public sector pay. For Fine Gael, the only way to break out of this deflationary debt trap is through an ambitious growth, jobs and genuine reform strategy . . . “

http://www.finegael.org/polcol/a/22/article

So no tax increases, no capital cuts, no social welfare cuts, no public sector pay cuts.

Ambitious growth, jobs and genuine reform strategy sounds nice, but can it go far enough?

Brussels Sprout

whatawaster wrote: »

“We can’t go back to the well this year to look for more tax increases or cuts in the capital programme, social welfare rates and public sector pay. For Fine Gael, the only way to break out of this deflationary debt trap is through an ambitious growth, jobs and genuine reform strategy . . . “

Is this even possible without devaluing our currency?

baalthor

Let's hope the bond guys don't take too close a look at Fine Gael's policies then:

If this deal is endorsed by the union membership Fine Gael will commit to honour the commitment not to cut public sector pay between now and 2014, if elected to Government. We will also prioritise the restoration of the earnings of lower paid public servants.

liammur

baalthor wrote: »

Let's hope the bond guys don't take too close a look at Fine Gael's policies then:

I suspect FF's policies now are nothing like the ones we were promised in 2007. The next government will have their hands tied behind their back and a lot of promises and policies you will read about will never come to fruition, hence I disagree with initial post.

rumour

GSF wrote: »

Its a socialist government that is cutting in Greece. So I dont think what Labour says now is necessarily indicative of what they would do if they formed a majority government. The reality of office may change their tune. Who knows in reality?

This very statement and your willingness to accept this reality is precisely what is wrong with Ireland.

Demand clear statements from your constitunecy politicians or do not give them your vote, use every opportunity. A government with a low turn out has no mandate. This creates a void that will be filled by people who speak clearly.

How else do we get them to deliver? I cannot except that we must vote for a party and then try to guess what they might do... this is dysfunctional.

Idbatterim

i am sure also sure that FF policies have changed they have to have, my point is that should Labor form a part of the next government Id say immediately the cost of borrowing will go up, thats before they finish of what ever is left of the economy (of course this is only speculation) but it is highly probable IMHO.

liammur

Idbatterim wrote: »

i am sure also sure that FF policies have changed they have to have, my point is that should Labor form a part of the next government Id say immediately the cost of borrowing will go up, thats before they finish of what ever is left of the economy (of course this is only speculation) but it is highly probable IMHO.

If FF had a history of conservatism, I could understand your concerns. But, we must remember this is the party that ballooned public sector pay, social welfare, national debt. Reducing these will NOT be easy.

Cost of borrowings will therefore continue to go up regardless of political party imo.

danbohan

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

we will not get a fine gael majority , what would be in this countrys best intrest would be a fine gael / fianna fail coalition without some of the deadwood in both partys ie its leaders , wishfull thinking i am sure .

Mister men

Scaremongering rubbish imo.