Hurricane DANIELLE

maquiladora

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 11.0N 32.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 11.5N 33.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 12.6N 35.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 13.6N 38.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 14.4N 41.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 17.5N 47.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 21.0N 52.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 24.5N 55.5W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Su Campu

000
WTNT41 KNHC 212031
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME
MORE SEPARATED FROM THE LARGE AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH HAS
BEEN PRESENT OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS....THOUGH IT IS STILL A BIT ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST. A LONG
CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION ALSO WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 25 KT...WHICH
AGREES WITH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB OF T1.5...25
KT...AND A 25 KT ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING.

A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE
DEPRESSION...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. COMBINED WITH WARM SSTS...AT LEAST
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BY THAT TIME...SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SUCH A WEAK
SYSTEM WITH ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE MAKING THE DEPRESSION A HURRICANE
WITHIN A FEW DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS...SHOWING A LARGE POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/7. A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH
INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE DEPRESSION LEAVES THE
STRONG WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND BECOMES STEERED BY A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.
MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALONG 50W IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLUSTERED AROUND THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE BIG
OUTLIERS TO THE NORTHEAST BEING THE CMC AND THE ECMWF MODELS. THESE
MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWEST SOON...WHICH ALLOWS THE
SYSTEM TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH DUE TO A TROUGH ALONG 50W. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF...THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 11.0N 32.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 11.5N 33.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 12.6N 35.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 13.6N 38.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 14.4N 41.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 17.5N 47.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 21.0N 52.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 24.5N 55.5W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

maquiladora

maquiladora

Now Tropical Storm Danielle.

dexter647

maybe things are picking up in a so far slow starting hurrricane season

thetonynator

dexter647 wrote: »

maybe things are picking up in a so far slow starting hurrricane season

This one doesn't look like its going to actually go anywhere . . .

maquiladora

thetonynator wrote: »

This one doesn't look like its going to actually go anywhere . . .

Maybe a threat to Bermuda or Newfoundland but at the moment it doesn't look like much of a threat to land. 0Z GFS has the remains of the storm crossing Ireland, but thats a long way off.

maquiladora

5 day track :

thetonynator

getting further east again . . .

Su Campu

Danielle's now 75mph hurricane

maquiladora

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0900Z 15.9N 44.6W 85 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 16.9N 46.6W 95 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 18.6N 48.9W 105 KT
36HR VT 25/1800Z 20.5N 51.0W 100 KT
48HR VT 26/0600Z 22.3N 52.9W 100 KT
72HR VT 27/0600Z 25.5N 55.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 28/0600Z 28.0N 57.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 29/0600Z 31.5N 59.0W 95 KT

Forecast to be a Cat 3 hurricane in 24 hours.

maquiladora

Danielle is now a Cat 2 hurricane.

There is also a 90% chance of a new Tropical Depression within the next 48 hours from Invest 96 :

maquiladora

Weakened to a Cat 1 unexpectedly.

Su Campu

The Cape Verde islands could get some action from that 96L. Here's a selection of webcams to keep an eye on.

maquiladora

12Z NOGAPS has Danielle as a strong hurricane going right over Bermuda :

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=prp&dtg=2010082412&set=Tropical

forkassed

Su Campu

Great link that, thanks a lot!

maquiladora

Downgraded to a Tropical Storm again now.

thetonynator

maquiladora wrote: »

Downgraded to a Tropical Storm again now.

do you think its just going to fizzle out???

maquiladora

thetonynator wrote: »

do you think its just going to fizzle out???

Its forecast to regain strength and become a hurricane again, but it was never forecast to weaken this much in the first place so who knows what will happen! This intensity change could change its path too.

maquiladora

Back to hurricane status again but forecast to stay as a Cat 1 storm until Friday.

Sponge Bob

Another named storm due from TD7 later today...not worth a thread yet

maquiladora

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Another named storm due from TD7 later today...not worth a thread yet

Too late! :P

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056011526

maquiladora

Danielle is forecast to peak around the weekend and start weakenin then again.

Models are split on which track it takes :

maquiladora

Danielle is now a Cat 3 hurricane, the first major of the season. Forecast now calls for it to peak as a Cat 4 over the weekend, but its staying well away from land so no threat to anyone but the fishies.

Su Campu

Here's the latest ASCAT windspeeds at 08UTC (ignore the rain-contaminated black vectors). It's not picking up the strongest of the winds, which are probably tightly packed around the eyewall and not easily resolved by the satellite.

maquiladora

Danielle has rapidly intensified to Cat 4 status.

forkassed

Nice Storm

maquiladora

06Z GFS has the remains of Danielle as a strong North Atlantic storm but tracking well away from us at 120 hrs :

maquiladora

maquiladora

I haven't seen named storms on UKMO Fax charts before. Does that mean it would still be tropical then?

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

I haven't seen named storms on UKMO Fax charts before. Does that mean it would still be tropical then?

I'm not sure but I'd say so Maq, or else borderline tropical at least.

I have seen the odd named storm on the fax charts occassionally but they rarely stay named for long.

One example:

Su Campu

If it has a then it's still a hurricane, a means Tropical Storm. And if it has fronts coming out of it then it's neither, that warm front in the chart is technically not joined to it, but it's probably signalling the start of extra-tropical transition.

Su Campu

A nice video of Danielle, taken from the ISS, 220 miles overhead.

Su Campu

Su Campu wrote: »

A nice video of Danielle, taken from the ISS, 220 miles overhead.

Cheers for posting that. Wonderful stuff. Looks so so peaceful from up there...

Su Campu

Danielle has weakened considerably this morning to 95kts as it goes through an eywall replacement cycle. It may not have enough time to recover before it hits the westerlies and cooler SSTs, so she may be on the slow decline from here.

000
WTNT41 KNHC 280850
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT DANIELLE HAS WEAKENED...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS WITH
RADII OF 20 AND 60 NM AROUND 0345 UTC...AND SUBSEQUENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE INNER EYEWALL HAD CONTINUED TO ERODE. THE
AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 100 KT AND A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 950 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS DECREASED TO 95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...DANIELLE WILL
NOT LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO RESTRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE
EYEWALL CYCLE COMPLETES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE
CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND A SLOW WEAKENING IS INDICATED
BEYOND THAT TIME AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES AND THE HURRICANE
BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...DANIELLE
WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...AND ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS
INDICATED DURING THE TRANSITION PROCESS.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXED THE CENTER A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES...AND SHOWED THAT DANIELLE HAS SLOWED A LITTLE. THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345/8. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED OVER THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS...AS
DANIELLE WILL ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. BEYOND THAT TIME...DANIELLE WILL SLOW
TEMPORARILY FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS AS THE FIRST UPPER-TROUGH LIFTS
OUT...AND THEN ACCELERATE AGAIN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS
ANOTHER TROUGH CAPTURES THE CYCLONE AND THEN PULLS IT SHARPLY
NORTHWARD BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 24 HOURS DUE TO THE
MORE WESTERLY INITIAL POSITION OF THE CYCLONE. BEYOND THAT
TIME...A MORE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK WAS MADE TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 28.6N 61.0W 95 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 30.2N 60.6W 95 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 33.2N 58.6W 95 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 36.7N 56.1W 90 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 38.9N 54.3W 85 KT
72HR VT 31/0600Z 41.5N 47.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 47.1N 32.4W 70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 02/0600Z 54.5N 35.5W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN