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Is it likely that IMF will enter Ireland?

  • 17-08-2010 07:41PM
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,783 ✭✭✭


    and what would the impact be? Long term depression, of property and enterprise?...or do we have that already anyway?.Feels like Ireland is ruined economicaly for a long time regardless...Seems that no Irish government will have the guts to take the right but unpopular measures, are we capable of resolving our problems ourselves?


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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,476 ✭✭✭ardmacha




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,121 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    There is an existing thread but this is a different topic. The other thread seems to deal with what the IMF would do to "fix" ireland. This could be a good discussion on the effects of such intervention.

    The IMF would balance the books as best they could but they don't aim to destroy a country, their aim would be to put Ireland in a position to one day contribute to the global economy once again. In the short term, the only outcome of their austerity would be pain but it would not result in mass poverty in the truest sense of the term. Rather, I would imagine we'd be left considerably worse off for a decade or two but that we would eventually climb back up.

    Of course, this will mean hardship for a great many people but all we can do is hope for the best.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 585 ✭✭✭MrDarcy


    RichardAnd wrote: »
    There is an existing thread but this is a different topic. The other thread seems to deal with what the IMF would do to "fix" ireland. This could be a good discussion on the effects of such intervention.

    The IMF would balance the books as best they could but they don't aim to destroy a country, their aim would be to put Ireland in a position to one day contribute to the global economy once again. In the short term, the only outcome of their austerity would be pain but it would not result in mass poverty in the truest sense of the term. Rather, I would imagine we'd be left considerably worse off for a decade or two but that we would eventually climb back up.

    Of course, this will mean hardship for a great many people but all we can do is hope for the best.

    Right now there is (A) poverty and (B) hardship, the problem is that one sector of society has been completely and entirely insulated from these things. Hence why we need the IMF to come in and sort the place out because right now the people who are not suffering are the ones who are calling the shots politically.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 583 ✭✭✭McDougal


    MrDarcy wrote: »
    Right now there is (A) poverty and (B) hardship, the problem is that one sector of society has been completely and entirely insulated from these things. Hence why we need the IMF to come in and sort the place out because right now the people who are not suffering are the ones who are calling the shots politically.

    That makes no sense


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,733 ✭✭✭oppenheimer1


    IMF won't enter Ireland. If anything it will be in the form of an EU bailout and I would expect the Germans to be harsher mistresses tbh.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 585 ✭✭✭MrDarcy


    McDougal wrote: »
    That makes no sense

    What doesn't make sense??? What part of nearly 750,000 people in Ireland, (very close to 500,000 on the dole and approximately 250,000 emmigrating by the end of 2010, since the middle of 2008), in the private sector have either:

    (A) Lost their job, or

    (B) Emmigated.

    But at the same time not a single unionised public sector worker who has a permanent job with the state has lost their job or had to emmigrate by way of compulsory redundancy???

    What part of that very simple assembly do you have a difficulty digesting???


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 39,019 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 583 ✭✭✭McDougal


    MrDarcy wrote: »
    What doesn't make sense??? What part of nearly 750,000 people in Ireland, (very close to 500,000 on the dole and approximately 250,000 emmigrating by the end of 2010, since the middle of 2008), in the private sector have either:

    (A) Lost their job, or

    (B) Emmigated.

    But at the same time not a single unionised public sector worker who has a permanent job with the state has lost their job or had to emmigrate by way of compulsory redundancy???

    What part of that very simple assembly do you have a difficulty digesting???

    What makes you think the IMF can relate better to the unemployed than our own political elites? It's a daft idea.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,582 ✭✭✭WalterMitty


    McDougal wrote: »
    What makes you think the IMF can relate better to the unemployed than our own political elites? It's a daft idea.
    They can get the finances back in balance allowing dole to be continue to paid. A lower rate of dole but it will be paid. The way we are heading it wont be paid at some stage in next few years.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,212 ✭✭✭Jaysoose


    Freiheit wrote: »
    and what would the impact be? Long term depression, of property and enterprise?...or do we have that already anyway?.Feels like Ireland is ruined economicaly for a long time regardless...Seems that no Irish government will have the guts to take the right but unpopular measures, are we capable of resolving our problems ourselves?


    You answered you own question this is happening now and will continue for a long time as we dont have credible politicians or the people with capacity for change.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,819 ✭✭✭dan_d


    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2010/0818/1224277069984.html

    I'd happily accept the Germans and French first...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,932 ✭✭✭hinault


    How does the IMF take over a country?

    Are they invited by the country to takeover?

    Or do the other nations who are owed money by the country in question, appoint the IMF as a sort of sovereign receiver/examiner?:D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,121 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    hinault wrote: »
    How does the IMF take over a country?

    Are they invited by the country to takeover?

    Or do the other nations who are owed money by the country in question, appoint the IMF as a sort of sovereign receiver/examiner?:D


    I IMF don't take over a country. What happens is a country might default on its debt and thus be unable to borrow more money on the international market. In these cases, they turn to the IMF for a lone but they will only fork out if they have an input into how the money will be used.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 583 ✭✭✭McDougal


    They can get the finances back in balance allowing dole to be continue to paid. A lower rate of dole but it will be paid. The way we are heading it wont be paid at some stage in next few years.

    There is absolutely no evidence to back that up


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,892 ✭✭✭Head The Wall


    McDougal wrote: »
    There is absolutely no evidence to back that up

    Yes that's correct, everything is bang on target. The 20Bn annual deficit is just an illusion. :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,316 ✭✭✭amacca


    dan_d wrote: »
    I'd happily accept the Germans and French first...

    Agreed.

    I'm of the opinion the eu would really rather not have the IMF come in here......

    surely they would rather prop us up (within reason) and impose austerity measures through the back door (no pun intended :D)

    Would IMF involvement in Ireland coming hot on the heels of Greece not possibly trigger loss of confidence in other eurozone countries and possibly have very far reaching negative consequences for the eu as a whole.

    It seems to me as if the eu/ecb are prepared to help preserve the status quo here or at least allow the bubble to deflate slowly rather than with a massive loss of investor confidence inducing bang in case ireland inc turns out to be the national equivalent of a Lehmanns Brothers?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 583 ✭✭✭McDougal


    Yes that's correct, everything is bang on target. The 20Bn annual deficit is just an illusion. :rolleyes:

    No the county is in dire straits but I'm just not naive enough to think the IMF will fix it.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 583 ✭✭✭McDougal


    amacca wrote: »
    Agreed.

    I'm of the opinion the eu would really rather not have the IMF come in here......

    surely they would rather prop us up (within reason) and impose austerity measures through the back door (no pun intended :D)

    Would IMF involvement in Ireland coming hot on the heels of Greece not possibly trigger loss of confidence in other eurozone countries and possibly have very far reaching negative consequences for the eu as a whole.

    It seems to me as if the eu/ecb are prepared to help preserve the status quo here or at least allow the bubble to deflate slowly rather than with a massive loss of investor confidence inducing bang in case ireland inc turns out to be the national equivalent of a Lehmanns Brothers?

    Ah yes the good liberal europeans won't beat us with such a hard stick!

    Jesus Christ you sound like a slave trying to choose his master


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,121 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    amacca wrote: »
    Agreed.

    I'm of the opinion the eu would really rather not have the IMF come in here......

    surely they would rather prop us up (within reason) and impose austerity measures through the back door (no pun intended :D)

    Would IMF involvement in Ireland coming hot on the heels of Greece not possibly trigger loss of confidence in other eurozone countries and possibly have very far reaching negative consequences for the eu as a whole.

    It seems to me as if the eu/ecb are prepared to help preserve the status quo here or at least allow the bubble to deflate slowly rather than with a massive loss of investor confidence inducing bang in case ireland inc turns out to be the national equivalent of a Lehmanns Brothers?



    to be honest, I think the Germans and the French would love to cut us and the rest of the PIIGS off from europe like the gangrenous limbs we are. The sad thing it that I don't blame them at all :(


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,316 ✭✭✭amacca


    McDougal wrote: »
    Ah yes the good liberal europeans won't beat us with such a hard stick!

    Jesus Christ you sound like a slave trying to choose his master

    Do you think you're free? I mean really...do you really believe you've got control?

    If you do then I'm quite jealous......but this isn't a philosophical debate is it?


    Listen I believe we are going to get a good beating and if that's inescapable....given that belief then I would like to chose whose going to be administering the beating.

    I also believe at least as part of the eu.... our "liberal....my hole" european masters have some incentive to leave it at fleshwounds.

    What do you believe.....do you believe we can get out of this without intervention...and if you don't then do you think the aid is going to come without strings of some sort?

    believe ecb have already purchased some of our bonds and will do so in the future should it prove necessary



    ................youve stated that IMF alone wont sort out this countries problems...how right you are...they are only interested in our balance sheet.....at least eu might have more invested and more of an incentive to look a bit beyond the balance sheet?


    apologies if I come across as a fawning pixie irisher but sometimes needs must


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,287 ✭✭✭kevteljeur


    I think over the last five years Ireland has provided a terrific argument in favour of tighter federal financial control over states in the Euro zone. Everyone's talking about the IMF, but we're in the Euro zone here, and they're not going to get a look in. The EU (and this really means Germany and France) will do the bailing out, and Ireland will cede any real control over Ireland's budget and taxation strategy as a result. We the voters will get to pick who delivers the bad news to us but that's about it as far as the budget goes.

    I don't think there's any matter of choice here; if it comes down to needing a bail-out for the state to continue functioning then that's what it will be, and the terms will be non-negotiable. It's going to be a very hard landing for everyone when it happens.


    (Edit: Just to clarify - we will need that bailout, it will be administered whether we want it or not by the EU, and as I've said elsewhere here it will be at the cost of re-engineering the Irish economy as Germany and France see fit (higher tax rates, lower public pay, the works). And that will be very, very painful. If you don't like it, start packing.)



    k


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,282 ✭✭✭westtip


    kevteljeur wrote: »
    I think over the last five years Ireland has provided a terrific argument in favour of tighter federal financial control over states in the Euro zone. Everyone's talking about the IMF, but we're in the Euro zone here, and they're not going to get a look in. The EU (and this really means Germany and France) will do the bailing out, and Ireland will cede any real control over Ireland's budget and taxation strategy as a result. We the voters will get to pick who delivers the bad news to us but that's about it as far as the budget goes.

    I don't think there's any matter of choice here; if it comes down to needing a bail-out for the state to continue functioning then that's what it will be, and the terms will be non-negotiable. It's going to be a very hard landing for everyone when it happens.


    (Edit: Just to clarify - we will need that bailout, it will be administered whether we want it or not by the EU, and as I've said elsewhere here it will be at the cost of re-engineering the Irish economy as Germany and France see fit (higher tax rates, lower public pay, the works). And that will be very, very painful. If you don't like it, start packing.)



    k

    I don't care if its the IMF or ECB, as long as fiscal policy is taken out of the hands of the gobsh*tes in Leinster House. A greater collective bunch of incompetetence we have not seen in centuries in any country.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,316 ✭✭✭amacca


    kevteljeur wrote: »
    Everyone's talking about the IMF, but we're in the Euro zone here, and they're not going to get a look in. The EU (and this really means Germany and France) will do the bailing out, and Ireland will cede any real control over Ireland's budget and taxation strategy as a result. We the voters will get to pick who delivers the bad news to us but that's about it as far as the budget goes.

    I don't think there's any matter of choice here; if it comes down to needing a bail-out for the state to continue functioning then that's what it will be, and the terms will be non-negotiable. It's going to be a very hard landing for everyone when it happens.


    (Edit: Just to clarify - we will need that bailout, it will be administered whether we want it or not by the EU, and as I've said elsewhere here it will be at the cost of re-engineering the Irish economy as Germany and France see fit (higher tax rates, lower public pay, the works). And that will be very, very painful. If you don't like it, start packing.)



    k

    agreed agreed agreed

    oh dear.......:(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 583 ✭✭✭McDougal


    westtip wrote: »
    I don't care if its the IMF or ECB, as long as fiscal policy is taken out of the hands of the gobsh*tes in Leinster House. A greater collective bunch of incompetetence we have not seen in centuries in any country.

    Which one did you vote for?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,163 ✭✭✭✭Liam Byrne


    McDougal wrote: »
    No the county is in dire straits but I'm just not naive enough to think the IMF will fix it.

    Are you naive enough to think FF can fix it ?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 583 ✭✭✭McDougal


    Liam Byrne wrote: »
    Are you naive enough to think FF can fix it ?

    Absolutely not but I would at least prefer the people running our economy to be elected.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,582 ✭✭✭WalterMitty


    McDougal wrote: »
    Absolutely not but I would at least prefer the people running our economy to be elected.
    the people who caused the mess were elected by us. The european bodies are democratically elected by member countries and citizens.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,914 ✭✭✭danbohan


    McDougal wrote: »
    Absolutely not but I would at least prefer the people running our economy to be elected.


    why ? do they do a better job when they are elected ? irish people have shown the cannot be trusted to elect people capable of anything higher than keeping the local potholes filled or local hospital open . we have a goverment and opposion of teachers publicans lawyers and such not to mention healy raes and dodgy doctors , where are the entrepeneurs in goverment or the michael o learys etc . i would be very happy to hand the running of this country over to o leary or some bunch of germans rather that the idiots we elect time and again


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,892 ✭✭✭Head The Wall


    McDougal wrote: »
    Absolutely not but I would at least prefer the people running our economy to be elected.
    The people running our economy have been elected and look at the balls they have made of it.

    It's time for someone else to be given a chance, we'll probably find the most vociferous voice to it will be from the people with the most to lose - The Public Sector Union Cartel


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 583 ✭✭✭McDougal


    . The european bodies are democratically elected by member countries and citizens.

    Except they're not really


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