Is it likely that IMF will enter Ireland?

Freiheit

and what would the impact be? Long term depression, of property and enterprise?...or do we have that already anyway?.Feels like Ireland is ruined economicaly for a long time regardless...Seems that no Irish government will have the guts to take the right but unpopular measures, are we capable of resolving our problems ourselves?

ardmacha

existing thread?
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056000669

RichardAnd

There is an existing thread but this is a different topic. The other thread seems to deal with what the IMF would do to "fix" ireland. This could be a good discussion on the effects of such intervention.

The IMF would balance the books as best they could but they don't aim to destroy a country, their aim would be to put Ireland in a position to one day contribute to the global economy once again. In the short term, the only outcome of their austerity would be pain but it would not result in mass poverty in the truest sense of the term. Rather, I would imagine we'd be left considerably worse off for a decade or two but that we would eventually climb back up.

Of course, this will mean hardship for a great many people but all we can do is hope for the best.

MrDarcy

RichardAnd wrote: »

There is an existing thread but this is a different topic. The other thread seems to deal with what the IMF would do to "fix" ireland. This could be a good discussion on the effects of such intervention.

The IMF would balance the books as best they could but they don't aim to destroy a country, their aim would be to put Ireland in a position to one day contribute to the global economy once again. In the short term, the only outcome of their austerity would be pain but it would not result in mass poverty in the truest sense of the term. Rather, I would imagine we'd be left considerably worse off for a decade or two but that we would eventually climb back up.

Of course, this will mean hardship for a great many people but all we can do is hope for the best.

Right now there is (A) poverty and (B) hardship, the problem is that one sector of society has been completely and entirely insulated from these things. Hence why we need the IMF to come in and sort the place out because right now the people who are not suffering are the ones who are calling the shots politically.

McDougal

MrDarcy wrote: »

Right now there is (A) poverty and (B) hardship, the problem is that one sector of society has been completely and entirely insulated from these things. Hence why we need the IMF to come in and sort the place out because right now the people who are not suffering are the ones who are calling the shots politically.

That makes no sense

oppenheimer1

IMF won't enter Ireland. If anything it will be in the form of an EU bailout and I would expect the Germans to be harsher mistresses tbh.

MrDarcy

McDougal wrote: »

That makes no sense

What doesn't make sense??? What part of nearly 750,000 people in Ireland, (very close to 500,000 on the dole and approximately 250,000 emmigrating by the end of 2010, since the middle of 2008), in the private sector have either:

(A) Lost their job, or

(B) Emmigated.

But at the same time not a single unionised public sector worker who has a permanent job with the state has lost their job or had to emmigrate by way of compulsory redundancy???

What part of that very simple assembly do you have a difficulty digesting???

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

McDougal

MrDarcy wrote: »

What doesn't make sense??? What part of nearly 750,000 people in Ireland, (very close to 500,000 on the dole and approximately 250,000 emmigrating by the end of 2010, since the middle of 2008), in the private sector have either:

(A) Lost their job, or

(B) Emmigated.

But at the same time not a single unionised public sector worker who has a permanent job with the state has lost their job or had to emmigrate by way of compulsory redundancy???

What part of that very simple assembly do you have a difficulty digesting???

What makes you think the IMF can relate better to the unemployed than our own political elites? It's a daft idea.

WalterMitty

McDougal wrote: »

What makes you think the IMF can relate better to the unemployed than our own political elites? It's a daft idea.

They can get the finances back in balance allowing dole to be continue to paid. A lower rate of dole but it will be paid. The way we are heading it wont be paid at some stage in next few years.

Jaysoose

Freiheit wrote: »

and what would the impact be? Long term depression, of property and enterprise?...or do we have that already anyway?.Feels like Ireland is ruined economicaly for a long time regardless...Seems that no Irish government will have the guts to take the right but unpopular measures, are we capable of resolving our problems ourselves?

You answered you own question this is happening now and will continue for a long time as we dont have credible politicians or the people with capacity for change.

dan_d

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2010/0818/1224277069984.html

I'd happily accept the Germans and French first...

hinault

How does the IMF take over a country?

Are they invited by the country to takeover?

Or do the other nations who are owed money by the country in question, appoint the IMF as a sort of sovereign receiver/examiner?:D

RichardAnd

hinault wrote: »

How does the IMF take over a country?

Are they invited by the country to takeover?

Or do the other nations who are owed money by the country in question, appoint the IMF as a sort of sovereign receiver/examiner?:D

I IMF don't take over a country. What happens is a country might default on its debt and thus be unable to borrow more money on the international market. In these cases, they turn to the IMF for a lone but they will only fork out if they have an input into how the money will be used.

McDougal

WalterMitty wrote: »

They can get the finances back in balance allowing dole to be continue to paid. A lower rate of dole but it will be paid. The way we are heading it wont be paid at some stage in next few years.

There is absolutely no evidence to back that up

Head The Wall

McDougal wrote: »

There is absolutely no evidence to back that up

Yes that's correct, everything is bang on target. The 20Bn annual deficit is just an illusion. :rolleyes:

amacca

dan_d wrote: »

I'd happily accept the Germans and French first...

Agreed.

I'm of the opinion the eu would really rather not have the IMF come in here......

surely they would rather prop us up (within reason) and impose austerity measures through the back door (no pun intended )

Would IMF involvement in Ireland coming hot on the heels of Greece not possibly trigger loss of confidence in other eurozone countries and possibly have very far reaching negative consequences for the eu as a whole.

It seems to me as if the eu/ecb are prepared to help preserve the status quo here or at least allow the bubble to deflate slowly rather than with a massive loss of investor confidence inducing bang in case ireland inc turns out to be the national equivalent of a Lehmanns Brothers?

McDougal

Head The Wall wrote: »

Yes that's correct, everything is bang on target. The 20Bn annual deficit is just an illusion. :rolleyes:

No the county is in dire straits but I'm just not naive enough to think the IMF will fix it.

McDougal

amacca wrote: »

Agreed.

I'm of the opinion the eu would really rather not have the IMF come in here......

surely they would rather prop us up (within reason) and impose austerity measures through the back door (no pun intended )

Would IMF involvement in Ireland coming hot on the heels of Greece not possibly trigger loss of confidence in other eurozone countries and possibly have very far reaching negative consequences for the eu as a whole.

It seems to me as if the eu/ecb are prepared to help preserve the status quo here or at least allow the bubble to deflate slowly rather than with a massive loss of investor confidence inducing bang in case ireland inc turns out to be the national equivalent of a Lehmanns Brothers?

Ah yes the good liberal europeans won't beat us with such a hard stick!

Jesus Christ you sound like a slave trying to choose his master

RichardAnd

amacca wrote: »

Agreed.

I'm of the opinion the eu would really rather not have the IMF come in here......

surely they would rather prop us up (within reason) and impose austerity measures through the back door (no pun intended )

Would IMF involvement in Ireland coming hot on the heels of Greece not possibly trigger loss of confidence in other eurozone countries and possibly have very far reaching negative consequences for the eu as a whole.

It seems to me as if the eu/ecb are prepared to help preserve the status quo here or at least allow the bubble to deflate slowly rather than with a massive loss of investor confidence inducing bang in case ireland inc turns out to be the national equivalent of a Lehmanns Brothers?

to be honest, I think the Germans and the French would love to cut us and the rest of the PIIGS off from europe like the gangrenous limbs we are. The sad thing it that I don't blame them at all

amacca

McDougal wrote: »

Ah yes the good liberal europeans won't beat us with such a hard stick!

Jesus Christ you sound like a slave trying to choose his master

Do you think you're free? I mean really...do you really believe you've got control?

If you do then I'm quite jealous......but this isn't a philosophical debate is it?


Listen I believe we are going to get a good beating and if that's inescapable....given that belief then I would like to chose whose going to be administering the beating.

I also believe at least as part of the eu.... our "liberal....my hole" european masters have some incentive to leave it at fleshwounds.

What do you believe.....do you believe we can get out of this without intervention...and if you don't then do you think the aid is going to come without strings of some sort?

believe ecb have already purchased some of our bonds and will do so in the future should it prove necessary



................youve stated that IMF alone wont sort out this countries problems...how right you are...they are only interested in our balance sheet.....at least eu might have more invested and more of an incentive to look a bit beyond the balance sheet?


apologies if I come across as a fawning pixie irisher but sometimes needs must

kevteljeur

I think over the last five years Ireland has provided a terrific argument in favour of tighter federal financial control over states in the Euro zone. Everyone's talking about the IMF, but we're in the Euro zone here, and they're not going to get a look in. The EU (and this really means Germany and France) will do the bailing out, and Ireland will cede any real control over Ireland's budget and taxation strategy as a result. We the voters will get to pick who delivers the bad news to us but that's about it as far as the budget goes.

I don't think there's any matter of choice here; if it comes down to needing a bail-out for the state to continue functioning then that's what it will be, and the terms will be non-negotiable. It's going to be a very hard landing for everyone when it happens.


(Edit: Just to clarify - we will need that bailout, it will be administered whether we want it or not by the EU, and as I've said elsewhere here it will be at the cost of re-engineering the Irish economy as Germany and France see fit (higher tax rates, lower public pay, the works). And that will be very, very painful. If you don't like it, start packing.)



k

westtip

kevteljeur wrote: »

I think over the last five years Ireland has provided a terrific argument in favour of tighter federal financial control over states in the Euro zone. Everyone's talking about the IMF, but we're in the Euro zone here, and they're not going to get a look in. The EU (and this really means Germany and France) will do the bailing out, and Ireland will cede any real control over Ireland's budget and taxation strategy as a result. We the voters will get to pick who delivers the bad news to us but that's about it as far as the budget goes.

I don't think there's any matter of choice here; if it comes down to needing a bail-out for the state to continue functioning then that's what it will be, and the terms will be non-negotiable. It's going to be a very hard landing for everyone when it happens.


(Edit: Just to clarify - we will need that bailout, it will be administered whether we want it or not by the EU, and as I've said elsewhere here it will be at the cost of re-engineering the Irish economy as Germany and France see fit (higher tax rates, lower public pay, the works). And that will be very, very painful. If you don't like it, start packing.)



k

I don't care if its the IMF or ECB, as long as fiscal policy is taken out of the hands of the gobsh*tes in Leinster House. A greater collective bunch of incompetetence we have not seen in centuries in any country.

amacca

kevteljeur wrote: »

Everyone's talking about the IMF, but we're in the Euro zone here, and they're not going to get a look in. The EU (and this really means Germany and France) will do the bailing out, and Ireland will cede any real control over Ireland's budget and taxation strategy as a result. We the voters will get to pick who delivers the bad news to us but that's about it as far as the budget goes.

I don't think there's any matter of choice here; if it comes down to needing a bail-out for the state to continue functioning then that's what it will be, and the terms will be non-negotiable. It's going to be a very hard landing for everyone when it happens.


(Edit: Just to clarify - we will need that bailout, it will be administered whether we want it or not by the EU, and as I've said elsewhere here it will be at the cost of re-engineering the Irish economy as Germany and France see fit (higher tax rates, lower public pay, the works). And that will be very, very painful. If you don't like it, start packing.)



k

agreed agreed agreed

oh dear.......:(

McDougal

westtip wrote: »

I don't care if its the IMF or ECB, as long as fiscal policy is taken out of the hands of the gobsh*tes in Leinster House. A greater collective bunch of incompetetence we have not seen in centuries in any country.

Which one did you vote for?

Liam Byrne

McDougal wrote: »

No the county is in dire straits but I'm just not naive enough to think the IMF will fix it.

Are you naive enough to think FF can fix it ?

McDougal

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Are you naive enough to think FF can fix it ?

Absolutely not but I would at least prefer the people running our economy to be elected.

WalterMitty

McDougal wrote: »

Absolutely not but I would at least prefer the people running our economy to be elected.

the people who caused the mess were elected by us. The european bodies are democratically elected by member countries and citizens.

danbohan

McDougal wrote: »

Absolutely not but I would at least prefer the people running our economy to be elected.

why ? do they do a better job when they are elected ? irish people have shown the cannot be trusted to elect people capable of anything higher than keeping the local potholes filled or local hospital open . we have a goverment and opposion of teachers publicans lawyers and such not to mention healy raes and dodgy doctors , where are the entrepeneurs in goverment or the michael o learys etc . i would be very happy to hand the running of this country over to o leary or some bunch of germans rather that the idiots we elect time and again

Head The Wall

McDougal wrote: »

Absolutely not but I would at least prefer the people running our economy to be elected.

The people running our economy have been elected and look at the balls they have made of it.

It's time for someone else to be given a chance, we'll probably find the most vociferous voice to it will be from the people with the most to lose - The Public Sector Union Cartel

McDougal

WalterMitty wrote: »

. The european bodies are democratically elected by member countries and citizens.

Except they're not really

McDougal

Head The Wall wrote: »

The people running our economy have been elected and look at the balls they have made of it.

It's time for someone else to be given a chance, we'll probably find the most vociferous voice to it will be from the people with the most to lose - The Public Sector Union Cartel

So essentially you are advocating a Pinochet style leader?

ferike1

I wouldn't trust this government to fry me an egg. FF ran this country into the ground and all their decisions were to keep the public sector (highly overpaid and highly inefficient) and the real estate developers happy. At least the IMF or Germany would not hesitate to bring in the unpopular decisions needed to bring this country back on track. The whole thing makes me so mad because FF still go on like it was someone else's fault.

You know I could go on for days about this but people don't care enough to actually do something about it. We should be more like the French, make our voices heard.

Head The Wall

McDougal wrote: »

So essentially you are advocating a Pinochet style leader?

Yes that's right a military dictator is the best option, is that really the best you can come up with?

McDougal

Head The Wall wrote: »

Yes that's right a military dictator is the best option, is that really the best you can come up with?

No but it sounds like the best you can come up with

McDougal

ferike1 wrote: »

You know I could go on for days about this but people don't care enough to actually do something about it. We should be more like the French, make our voices heard.

And what have you actually done?

Scofflaw

McDougal, you're trolling. This is your one warning, after which you'll find yourself without access to the forum.

moderately,
Scofflaw

McDougal

Scofflaw wrote: »

McDougal, you're trolling. This is your one warning, after which you'll find yourself without access to the forum.

moderately,
Scofflaw

How dare you

BL1993

McDougal wrote: »

And what have you actually done?

Me, I've just finished my masters and about to start handing over my wages for nothing in particular, not great infrastructure, not great health care. Just gonna be throwing money into the black hole that is Anglo .

I guess I'm going to be a good citizen and be made a sap of.

*Posted under my brothers account by mistake

Scofflaw

McDougal wrote: »

How dare you

Quite easily, really - it's the moderator's job to do it, after all. Take a week off, and read the Forum Charter. Since you don't seem to have done that before, I'll point out that an abusive response to your ban will result in an extension of your ban, and re-registering to get around the ban will result in a site-wide ban for all your accounts.

moderately,
Scofflaw

johnnyskeleton

Lots of good articles and discussion here by the way:

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewforum.php?f=51

Freiheit wrote: »

and what would the impact be?

In relation to your first questions, despite people talking about the IMF "coming in" they don't actually come in as such. What happens is that they are like a money lender who, when no one else will lend to you, says "we'll lend to you, but you have to do what we say". So the IMF never actually "come in", but rather advise changes which must be complied with if we wish to borrow from them.

Freiheit wrote: »

Long term depression, of property and enterprise?

Typically, the IMF have given funding to tin pot dictatorships who have blown all their development money on white elephant vanity projects. They then come in and, having little real economy to grow and little to cut other than basic services, countries they have helped have usually ended up worse off than they were.

Western economies are different. What the IMF would suggest would be drastic reductions in social welfare, public sector pay and other state payments such that the state's spending is reduced to a managable level (c. 30-50% cut from it). Even if there were that level of cuts (which would make the social partners' hats spin on their heads) it would not be a total disaster. Social welfare if cut in half would cause severe strain on people's spending, but they would still be able to afford food etc. Likewise, PS workers would be angry and disspirited, but I'm not sure that they would give up their jobs either.

For those that believe that the current level of government spending and borrowing is a good thing and should not be touched, this is clearly a bad thing. It will, they will argue, lead to a dramatic drop in consumer spending and demand thus deepening the recession.

But others, like myself, who believe that the current level of government spending and borrowing is a bad thing and should be cut drastically, IMF medicine could be good for Ireland long term. It could work to dramatically reduce the cost of living and employing people and could lead to increased competitiveness and job creation. We might start making things in this country again (in significant quantities).

Coming back to the tin pot republic example, these countries went mad on borrowing and spending for pretty useless stuff. Politically, the IMF get the blame for coming in and imposing harsh conditions on them. But the IMF are not the bad guys. They are like the triage doctors who struggle against great odds to keep someone alive. They are not responsible for them dying or losing a limb etc. Sure, they may ultimately be the ones pulling the plug or directing the amputation, but they are only doing these bad things because the person was critically injured somewhere else.

So let's be clear, if the IMF "come in" they are not the bad guys, the bad guys are the ones who brought us to this point. If we don't like the taste of IMF medicine that's too bad, but not to take that medicine is childish, and blaming the doctor for the medicine instead of the playacting which required medical treatment in the first place is politically naieve.

Freiheit wrote: »

...or do we have that already anyway?.Feels like Ireland is ruined economicaly for a long time regardless.

That's it. The choices are not whether to enter a deeper recession or not, the choices are whether we take the hit now or later. By taking it now it hurts more sharply but we recover more quickly. By taking it later we are just allowing a slow decline. By the way, the FF talk of taking the "hard decisions" is nothing of the kind. They are making the minimum necessary cuts and trying to put it off for as long as possible. The 3bn that they have planned for budget 2011 will only pay for the interest on last year's deficit and on the NAMA bonds.

Freiheit wrote: »

..Seems that no Irish government will have the guts to take the right but unpopular measures, are we capable of resolving our problems ourselves?

A much more pertient question is not whether any politicians have the guts to take the right but unpopular measures, but whether anyone has the guts to vote for the politican who will take the right but unpopular measures. There are very few turkeys in Ireland that will vote for christmas.

johnnyskeleton

RichardAnd wrote: »

to be honest, I think the Germans and the French would love to cut us and the rest of the PIIGS off from europe like the gangrenous limbs we are. The sad thing it that I don't blame them at all

I disagree. The EU is first and foremost a means of uniting the warring european states in peace through economic union and prosperity. Thus, the European project is based on peace as the end and prosperity as the means, not the other way around.

Head The Wall

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

A much more pertient question is not whether any politicians have the guts to take the right but unpopular measures, but whether anyone has the guts to vote for the politican who will take the right but unpopular measures. There are very few turkeys in Ireland that will vote for christmas.

We can't vote for whats not there though, I can't see any politician or party using that as their manifesto so the decision is removed from our hands.

We can only vote for the clowns that put themselves out there and very few of them seem inspirational

Count Dooku

Head The Wall wrote: »

We can only vote for the clowns that put themselves out there and very few of them seem inspirational

Should we replace them by professional clowns?
At least it will be fun