Tropical Depression FIVE

maquiladora

000
WTNT45 KNHC 110234
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN ACCORD WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM... NEAR 30 DEG C...WATERS. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...INDICATES THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR PREDICTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT FROM ITS PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS...ICON.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE FIXES AND CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 320/4. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY A DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS FLOW REGIME SHOULD CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THEREAFTER...A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 26.2N 84.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 27.3N 85.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 28.4N 87.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 29.2N 89.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 29.7N 90.3W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 14/0000Z 31.0N 91.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 15/0000Z 33.5N 89.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

snowstreams

Its interesting to see that Tropical depression 5 could reform and even turn to a tropical storm in the next day or two.
If it does reform, will they call it tropical depression 6?

maquiladora

Yes, looks like ex-TD5 is doing the loop but it probably won't be over water long enough to get much intensity.

Su Campu

snowstreams wrote: »

Its interesting to see that Tropical depression 5 could reform and even turn to a tropical storm in the next day or two.
If it does reform, will they call it tropical depression 6?

No, as it's still the same system they'll give it the name Earl.

maquiladora

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE...IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 60
MILES SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
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