So things are looking up then are they.

Mister men

Seasonally adjusted figure increases by 8,500 in July.

Non adjusted increases by 13,500

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublicatio...rrent/lreg.pdf

ei.sdraob

I clearly remember some posters going in about the register figures few months ago

And sprouting the "turned a corner" and the "rate of decline is declining" nonsense

nowhere to be seen now of course...

kmick

I think this is a 10 year recession for Ireland minimum. There is no indication that the world economy is going to get a lot better soon. The European economy is worse than the US and within Europe Ireland is badly exposed. Keep your cash in the bank - preferably in Switzerland - Im not a conspiracy nut but I watched the film "Collapse" last week and Im not the same since.

There is some shaky bits but what he says around Oil is chilling.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1503769/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collapse_(film)

RichardAnd

I'd put that rise down to the time of year. Most of the new unemployed probably aren't redundancies but rather people leaving college are going straight onto the dole, same with many school leavers and don't forget builders' holidays. It's hardly heart warming news but you must remember that unemployment ALWAYS rises during the summer months.

P. Breathnach

RichardAnd wrote: »

I'd put that rise down to the time of year. Most of the new unemployed probably aren't redundancies but rather people leaving college are going straight onto the dole, same with many school leavers and don't forget builders' holidays. It's hardly heart warming news but you must remember that unemployment ALWAYS rises during the summer months.

That's why the CSO produces seasonally-adjusted figures.

danbohan

RichardAnd wrote: »

I'd put that rise down to the time of year. Most of the new unemployed probably aren't redundancies but rather people leaving college are going straight onto the dole, same with many school leavers and don't forget builders' holidays. It's hardly heart warming news but you must remember that unemployment ALWAYS rises during the summer months.

agh everthing is grand so , what i cant understand is that we are not having a massive outburst of anger on the streets , with figures like thease and remember the real figure should be well in excess of 600k if you take emigration /self employed etc into account politicians should be in real danger for their lives

liammur

Very true, the real figure is a lot higher. Remember some self employed people have no entitlement to go on the dole either, and as dan says, massive emmigration as well. Very gloomy outlook.

Scarab80

ei.sdraob wrote: »

I clearly remember some posters going in about the register figures few months ago

And sprouting the "turned a corner" and the "rate of decline is declining" nonsense

nowhere to be seen now of course...

Live register figures fell between January and April this year, not rate of decline or anything else but actual unemployment figures. The fact that it wasn't a one month blip but sustained over several months gave reason for optimism. Of couse the situation has changed completely in the last 3 months.

YOY rate of decline is still declining by the way

boc123

kmick wrote: »

Keep your cash in the bank - preferably in Switzerland - Im not a conspiracy nut but I watched the film "Collapse" last week and Im not the same since.

There is some shaky bits but what he says around Oil is chilling.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1503769/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collapse_(film)

That guy behind the film (Michael Ruppert) also said the Dow Jones would be between 2000-4000 at the end of the year. It's August now and it's at 10680. He makes lots of predictions and loves telling people how right he always is. Watch some of his videos on google. I believe in Peak Oil but I don't know about that guy.

RichardAnd

danbohan wrote: »

agh everthing is grand so , what i cant understand is that we are not having a massive outburst of anger on the streets , with figures like thease and remember the real figure should be well in excess of 600k if you take emigration /self employed etc into account politicians should be in real danger for their lives

I didn't say everything is grand, I simply stated a known fact. We dont' have anger on the streets because the Irish tend to drown their sorrows with drink. If the day comes when we can't afford the juice, then we could see riots but they would accomplish nothing.

SeaFields

Eamon O Cuiv just said on RTE radio that "the live register figures will drop dramatically in September".... :rolleyes:

liammur

I'm not one for riots either, (but maybe the other guy meant protests,) but what they may achieve is a change of government.

How many people for instance on these boards have confidence in the government? Maybe someone could set up a poll, it would be interesting to see.

Seafields - yes, he is probably right, when all the graduates decide to emmigrate

danbohan

RichardAnd wrote: »

I didn't say everything is grand, I simply stated a known fact. We dont' have anger on the streets because the Irish tend to drown their sorrows with drink. If the day comes when we can't afford the juice, then we could see riots but they would accomplish nothing.

would accomplish nothing.

perhaps not , but it might lead to an overthrow of a corrupt goverment and have people like cowen, aherne ,etc put on trial for treason . as for the drink thats just nonsense , if anything is keeping a lid on the anger is the fact that sw is very high and the difference between low paid jobs and sw income is very close .

RichardAnd

SeaFields wrote: »

Eamon O Cuiv just said on RTE radio that "the live register figures will drop dramatically in September".... :rolleyes:

Did he say why?

George Orwell 1982

RichardAnd wrote: »

Did he say why?

He expects about 20,000 young people to go back to education in September.

All and all I think we are now entering Phase 2 of the recession. Dan O'Brien was on RTE radio at lunch time talking about how more white collar workers were losing their jobs. More Irish professionals in these figures.

There is also a quarter of a billion shortfall in exchequer figures which means the govt. may have to take more the 3bn out of the economy in the next budget to contain the deficit.

bondjames

I would love to see that number broken down to see how many off them worked in the public sector on contract
There is a massive cull going on now right across the PS as there was a massive increase in clerical and secretarial people signing on
Could they be related?

RichardAnd

George Orwell 1982 wrote: »

He expects about 20,000 young people to go back to education in September.

All and all I think we are now entering Phase 2 of the recession. Dan O'Brien was on RTE radio at lunch time talking about how more white collar workers were losing their jobs. More Irish professionals in these figures.

There is also a quarter of a billion shortfall in exchequer figures which means the govt. may have to take more the 3bn out of the economy in the next budget to contain the deficit.

20k people going back to education isn't unreasonable at all and that should knock about .7% off the unemployment (1% is about 30k if anyone is interested). But that's just getting them off the dole, not getting them into employment.

SeaFields

Eamon O Cuiv also tried to argue economic figure with Dan O Brien... then the stopping and stuttering started. How are people like him supposed to lead us out of this?

emigration lads...pure and simple. No other options. If its possible for you to do so. This country is so far down the tubes its going to be a generations before its fixed.

Actually mods, this thread should be locked....afterall Biffo told us a couple of weeks ago that we are all to be positive from now on. :rolleyes:

danbohan

SeaFields wrote: »

Eamon O Cuiv also tried to argue economic figure with Dan O Brien... then the stopping and stuttering started. How are people like him supposed to lead us out of this?

emigration lads...pure and simple. No other options. If its possible for you to do so. This country is so far down the tubes its going to be a generations before its fixed.

Actually mods, this thread should be locked....afterall Biffo told us a couple of weeks ago that we are all to be positive from now on. :rolleyes:

eamon o cuivs grandfather when he was not having funny turns or at mass was talking about comenly maidens doing something strange at crossroads , are we are relying on that genepool (and we are , } to get us out of this depression/ressision ?. god save ireland!

SeaFields

danbohan wrote: »

god save ireland!

It'll take something bigger than God to save Ireland at this stage :eek:

flutered

the numbers on the dole is not a true figure of our unemployment problem, how many are unemployed and not in recipt of the dole because their partner is earning in ecess of 400 euro.

Scarab80

flutered wrote: »

the numbers on the dole is not a true figure of our unemployment problem, how many are unemployed and not in recipt of the dole because their partner is earning in ecess of 400 euro.

And it explicitly states this in the report....

The Live Register is not designed to measure unemployment. It includes part-time workers (those who work up to three days a week), seasonal and casual workers entitled to Jobseekers Benefit or Allowance. Unemployment is measured by the Quarterly National Household Survey and the latest seasonally adjusted figure, for January to March 2010, is 277,400 persons unemployed.

johnnyskeleton

SeaFields wrote: »

It'll take something bigger than God to save Ireland at this stage :eek:

Missus Merkel - SAVE US!

steamengine

There seems to be a batch of defective 'crystal balls' floating about. Started with a 'soft landing' prediction some years back etc etc etc.... :rolleyes:

oppenheimer1

Scarab80 wrote: »

And it explicitly states this in the report....

About time someone said it. And may I add a recession is not defines by rising or falling unemployment but GDP. We are currently growing at the fastest rate in the eurozone.

SkepticOne

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

About time someone said it. And may I add a recession is not defines by rising or falling unemployment but GDP. We are currently growing at the fastest rate in the eurozone.

I don't think there's a formal definition of recession. The GDP one is just a rule of thumb but that has been latched on to by the press. The NBER in the US use a variety of indicators including unemployment in their determination of recession. Relying on GDP in Ireland is probably mistaken given the distortion due to multinationals.

gurramok

Ah the old GDP distortion, its amazing how FF supporters constantly use this measure rather than GNP.

To get a gouge on unemployment, ask any young person just out of school/college of their prospects and emigration is in fact that 'stabilising factor'.

Employment figures were still plummeting at the last count so until they stabilise and grow, we may have a turning point.

Idbatterim

on top of whatever cuts have to be made in the budget, see below from todays indo...

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/mortgage-rate-hikes-to-reduce-incomes-by-euro15bn-2286650.html

factor in also the emigration and this soft landing bull**** or we are over the worst, is a joke!

flutered

the soft landing only applys to the people at the top, all the rest of us are their air cushions, d.ahrne was speaking from the front of his exec merc when he stated the coming cuts were to be to the bone, theres cuts only apply to plebs and the people not on the top tier of the food chain.

dan_d

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2010/0806/1224276310379.html

I think the attached sums up our current pile of s$%t quite well.

There are a large number of graphs that go with this article in the hard copy of the paper, which break down the statistics quite well...unfortunately they are not available on the website.

It makes me so angry seeing articles and numbers like this - as one of the many who are redundant, I am now contemplating my options abroad - and have been for some time. There's nothing happening here, and the part that makes my blood boil is that there's nobody taking any interest in trying to make something happen.

As for those figures - while they are true of the actual quantity of people claiming benefits, they do not give the full picture. Are there any statistics on how many graduates/people have left the country for elsewhere? Most, complete with the free education that the state has pumped so much money into over the years?Any statistics on the number of foreign people who have returned to their own countries?

This Government is in absolute denial. They need to seriously cop on to themselves and look at the situation we are in instead of giving journalists sound bites on it every day. This is NOT a situation that can be fixed easily, or covered over with band aid solutions. We have an extremely serious problem here, with a bunch of people whose heads are stuck in the sand trying to solve it.

unit 1

I'd look up but I'm afraid of those vultures flying around up there.:(

Sand

The balance sheets of dead and crippled banks have been far more important to the government than the actual economy has been. So much effort, capital and goodwill has been expended on attempting to try bolt the stable door after the horse has bolted. I remember a phrase Karl Whelan used I think regarding NAMA, something along the lines of "the government has looked the people of Ireland in the eye, and cooly told them that your priorities are not our priorities". This has been true throughout the entire debacle - insiders are rescued, the nameless unemployed are basically told to **** off out of the country. The governments only economic strategy is apparently training Baz, Chazzo and Anto to become scientists to start inventing green technology...

Anyone with any ambition or energy would be best served to emigrate. This is no country for young men.

Idbatterim

The EU commission has just appoved another paltry 10 billion injection into Anglo! and also see below from rte.ie "AIB should cut back on its buildings, cars and executive perks before the bank decides to raise interest rates for ordinary homeowners, according to Fine Gael TD Leo Varadkar. Mr Varadkar was reacting to news that the bank still pays gym and social club fees to a maximum of €2,500 a year for staff - although the payment is subject to tax."

Fighting Irish

flutered wrote: »

the soft landing only applys to the people at the top, all the rest of us are their air cushions, d.ahrne was speaking from the front of his exec merc when he stated the coming cuts were to be to the bone, theres cuts only apply to plebs and the people not on the top tier of the food chain.

and people who saved for a rainy day, and who didn't blow their load during the tiger

jmayo

unit 1 wrote: »

I'd look up but I'm afraid of those vultures flying around up there.:(

You forgot about the shi*e landing in your eye that originate from these same vultures.

Some of these vultures are just continuing to keep their beaks firmly buired in the trough.
One of them thinks it is perfectly fine to take executive jet to fly to one corner of the island, land in an airport paying tax revenue to another jurisdiction, even though perfectly good airport nearer to ultimate destination that pays taxes to this jurisdiction, get collected by publicly paid chauffeur who has just driven the very same route that jet has taken.
I wonder are there no taxis or chauffeurs in this corner of Ireland ?

All of this of course is to firstly allow said self important luminary to say a few spin doctor originated meaningless words at some talking shop and then supposedly quickly reach a very important top secret rendezvous in London.

Sand wrote: »

...
Anyone with any ambition or energy would be best served to emigrate. This is no country for young men.

You shouldn't be so selective.

It is no country for ...

• women (our justice system more concerned with blasphemy lets let out a kidnapper, rapist, attempted murderer and possible serial killer on early release thanks to him being good boy in prison and not taking any rehabilition conselling),
• the sick (check out our hospitals),
• the old (check out our nursing homes),
• the mentally ill (check out our mental institutions),
• children (check out the plight of chiuldren in care),
• the private sector middle income taxpayers (check out who really pays tax and watches their pensions degrade).

Now have I left anyone out ?

EDIT: well spotted flutered ... the handicapped and more importantly their long term carers are treated as dirt.

Fighting Irish wrote: »

and people who saved for a rainy day, and who didn't blow their load during the tiger

Not exactly true that the above bunch have had a soft landing.

The people who did save, who didn't blow all their own and someone else's money are now expected to pay for the bail out of the big corporate linked high rollers through government bank guarantees, recapitalisation and NAMA
There are also expected by some quarters to bail out the would be highrollers who never had shag all money, but yet decided that they should pay astronomical figures of borrowed money for hugely overpriced cr** property, flash cars, boats, multiple holidays, foreign property, etc.

These same people are also probably watching as their kids have to emigrate, their careers and the businesses they built up over the years are decimated along with all the fly by night bubble based ventures.
No one bar the conected ones at the top appear to come out of this mess unscathed.

flutered

you have left out the handicapped who have no voice at all, as the severes cannot vote.

ART6

ei.sdraob wrote: »

I clearly remember some posters going in about the register figures few months ago

And sprouting the "turned a corner" and the "rate of decline is declining" nonsense

Every time I hear that remark that the rate of decline is declining I get this mental picture of a car heading for a stone wall. The driver dozed off at the wheel and only woke up when it was too late to avoid the accident. He has his foot on the brake, and the rate of approach to the wall is declining, but he is still going hit it.

For the driver substitute government, for the car substitute Irish economy, for the wall Sovereign Debt.