New Car Sales Up ....But we knew that

Saab Ed

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0803/breaking42.html

Nearly a 50% hike. Good to see.

unkel

Good to see indeed. But let's put things into perspective. If this 47% hike keeps up for the full year 2010, new car sales are still less than half that in 2007.

And a lot of this increase in sales is because of the scrappage scheme. This effect will wear off quickly...

Treehouse72

unkel wrote: »

And a lot of this increase in sales is because of the scrappage scheme. This effect will wear off quickly...

I would say it's a hell of a lot more than "a lot" to be honest. One thing I absolutely would not put it down to is any improvement in the economy.

positron

unkel wrote: »

If this 47% hike keeps up for the full year 2010, new car sales are still less than half that in 2007.

Not an expert on this topic, but I have a feeling that if you take a long term perspective of the car sales in the country, 2006-2007 might be the abnormal years.

unkel

Treehouse72 wrote: »

I would say it's a hell of a lot more than "a lot" to be honest. One thing I absolutely would not put it down to is any improvement in the economy.

I agree. Even with some fairly decent economic recovery, the car industry can't realistically expect 2011 (without scrappage) to be any better than 2010. So still less than half of 2007.

Max Power1

Id like to see some figures before all of the growth is linked to the scrappage deal tbh.

09 was an awful year so some natural growth was going to happen this year anyway.

Treehouse72

Max Power1 wrote: »

09 was an awful year so some natural growth was going to happen this year anyway.

'09 was dreadful because that's when the recession kicked in and really started affecting people's incomes and spending patterns. Since that situation has not improved one jot, I don't see why one would expect "natural growth" this year to compensate. In normal times maybe a bad year is balanced out by a good one. But this is not normal times.

If I want to look for a neutral level of car sales, I'd just go back to the late 90's, adjust for population changes and whatnot, and bingo, that's what "normal" car sales in Ireland should look like. Using any year in the 00's as a benchmark will not do it IMO.

unkel

positron wrote: »

Not an expert on this topic, but I have a feeling that if you take a long term perspective of the car sales in the country, 2006-2007 might be the abnormal years.

Indeed. We might not see sales at those levels again for who knows, maybe decades. Good indication of the severity of the recession in Ireland though. Car sales from top to bottom down 70%, most other EU countries it's more like down 20%

Max Power1

Treehouse72 wrote: »

'09 was dreadful because that's when the recession kicked in and really started affecting people's incomes and spending patterns. Since that situation has not improved one jot, I don't see why one would expect "natural growth" this year to compensate. In normal times maybe a bad year is balanced out by a good one. But this is not normal times.

If I want to look for a neutral level of car sales, I'd just go back to the late 90's, adjust for population changes and whatnot, and bingo, that's what "normal" car sales in Ireland should look like. Using any year in the 00's as a benchmark will not do it IMO.

However a lot of the new cars sold do not qualify for scrappage.