Goodwood Day 4

UrbanSea

Good racing again tomorrow. A few picks of mine are:

2.10: If Cavalryman runs anywhere near his 3rd in the Arc then he should take this easily. Unfortunately,he has been a let down this term. Dropped to Group 3 here I reckon he could take all the beating,currently at 11/2.
However,I fancy his stable mate La De Twoin the same race each way at around 8/1. If he wins tomorrow I'd like to see him go to the Leger

4.00:It's hard to look past Librano following his impressive win at Newmarket around 2 weeks ago. Hannon and Hughes combination once more which is impossible to oppose at the moment.

5.15: The favourite Jacqueline Quest Likely to be around 7/4,but this doesn't look the strongest fillies and mares' Group 3. Third in the big fillies' Group 1 at Ascot,and lost the 1000 Guineas following a stewards' enquiry,she should be hard to beat.


Anyone else any opinions?

deewhy

e/w patent for me on:

Tiddlywinks 12/1 - fast finishing 4th last week (weight a bit of a worry)
Webbow 12/1 - running consistantly without winning (in at bottom of weights)
Marine Commando 7/2 - will be tough to beat Libranno but won well last time and there could be more improvement to come.

UrbanSea

Not a bet but others that I've picked out are:
14.25:Olynard each way 16/1
15.25:Oasis Dancer 13/2 each way

Goldcupfav

greetings wrote: »

Good racing again tomorrow. A few picks of mine are:

2.10: If Cavalryman runs anywhere near his 3rd in the Arc then he should take this easily. Unfortunately,he has been a let down this term. Dropped to Group 3 here I reckon he could take all the beating,currently at 11/2.


Anyone else any opinions?

Think Cavalryman has a great chance tomorrow. His run at Epsom this season in the Coronation was actually pretty decent travelled well for a long way then went to make his run and twice didnt get a clear run. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yHtf32lr9k would have finished 3rd maybe even 2nd with a clear run. On that running he should take this against this field. Flopped last time at Ascot in the POWS but it was only 12 days after the Epsom run and over a shorter trip so im willing to forgive that run! Big E/W punt on this tomorrow for me !

Nulty

Goodwood 2.45

Bagamoyo 1pt win @ 11/1 Ladbrokes

Trainer James Franshaw has a good record in sprint handicaps and this is useful horse he has entered in the 2.45. The yard has over 20% record at Goodwood and is in form at the moment. The horse performs well in large fields of 14+ so shouldn't be bothered by the hustle and bustle of the 29 runners in this race. Drawn in the middle of the track will have to rely on gaps opening up because of he seems to be covered up most of the time. Eddie Ahern takes the ride and can be a capable jock on his day. The horse finds it hard to get his head in front but has a good chance of at least a place.

Aye Aye Digby 1pt ew @ 25/1 Bet365 (1/4 odds, 5 places)

I also like Aye Aye Digby here. Its certainly a worry that the Boyle stable has not been in form for almost 5 months with a winner here and there. Aye Aye Digby though ran a decent race last time at Epsom which has a similar profile to Goodwoods sprint course. The horse has run well at Goodwood before and may have a sneaky chance in a good outside draw at tempting odds. His overall form picked up when concentrating on the 6f last year and back at a complimentary track could out run his current price

Goodwood 3.25

Spectait 1pt ew @ 50/1 Blue Square

Has been improving every run this year (42l, 17l, 7l) and could be capable of putting in a good performance despite his huge odds. He's won this in 2006 and was second in this last year albeit with a run of good form in the book up to that point. The horse that beat him last year was in first time headgear and this year Spectait takes that opportuninty with cheekpieces. It seems that Jonjo O'Neill has been training the horse for this race in particular, or maybe its his last hurrah before going National Hunt. Either way he'll have to switch out wide to get a run like he did last year.

Goodwood 5.15

Tabassum 2pts ew

Forgiving horses too many times often leads to empty pockets. I'm prepared to do this once more in this log for Tabassum who pulled way too hard coming from the worst draw on reappearance in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. She was a promising Guineas contender earlier this year only to be withdrawn when not ready in time. Stoute obviously thinks its worth persevering with her at this level despite the run last time and he price may be greater than her chances of winning. This time shes drawn well enough that Hills can decide where to go with her without using too much gas and the nature of the track should help get a good position if he chooses to bounce her out. Shes bred to get 8f+ but has enough natural speed to win over 7 at the highest level. Hills is a good man to have at the front of a race and if the filly is ready she ought to give a good account of herself. The favorite is difficult to oppose but a poor draw leaves her with a tougher task than appears on paper.

Nulty

Webbow 3pts ew @ 12/1

Scrapes in off bottom weight, 4th in this last year, plum draw, cheekpieces first time and an able 3lb claimer (same jock as last year)....looks a fantastic bet to me. I'm prepared to go in with a fair sized bet here. He met trouble about a furlong from home last year and powered home after to nick 4th. As with all these big handicaps, you need to get luck in running. Hopefully the cheekpieces will liven him up and he'll be able to hold his position and travel well through the race to take the opportunities he may get on the rail. The horse/jock combination has yielded finishing positions of 232445 so a place-finish looks like an likely outcome. The two 4ths came in handicaps of 19 runners so ew money landed. He is in as good form as ever without actually winning, finishing only behind Himalya on the stands side and 2l behind the winner in the Buckingham Stakes at the Royal meeting staying on over 7f. The mile is his optimum trip and the draw will be essential to his chances of getting his first win since 2008. He's getting on in years but the ability is still there and he'll be trying right up until the line.

PS.
I had 1pt Ante Post on Treadwell for this so it could be an expensive race :eek:

UrbanSea

Absolutely raging,the two fancied Godolphin runners in the first are non runners.

The Recliner

Nulty wrote: »

Goodwood 2.45

Aye Aye Digby 1pt ew @ 25/1 Bet365 (1/4 odds, 5 places)

Goodwood 3.25

Spectait 1pt ew @ 50/1 Blue Square



Goodwood 5.15

Tabassum 2pts ew

Nulty wrote: »

Webbow 3pts ew @ 12/1

Decided to have a flutter so went with your picks above

Fingers crossed etc

UrbanSea

Without the two Godolphin runners in the first,I fancy Manighar each way at about 8/1

c montgomery

3:25 Oasis dancer 6/1

Got a tip for this guy, tipster usually good enough but he said there are 3 horses that could win this one but oasis dancer has the best chance.

deewhy

greetings wrote: »

Without the two Godolphin runners in the first,I fancy Manighar each way at about 8/1

Hard to see past Duncan - dont like 5 pt bets in first betting race of a long day. Will tone down to 3pts win. F/cast with Kingdom of Fife

Nulty

The Recliner wrote: »

Decided to have a flutter so went with your picks above

Fingers crossed etc

Oh, I forgot to mention....I'm cursed

:pac:

scopper

Did good on Joseph Goody (see after timing thread) so I think I'm gonna take out my winnings but throw out two fairly random doubles for the craic:
2.50 on each to win
Oasis Dancer/Libranno
Webbow/Libranno

Also had an earlier bet on Spectait

I'd be lucky to pull this off but the risk is low (and I'm in profit).

Kod-box

Gonna chance Ransom Note in the next

Kod-box

Hughes and Hannon on some form, saved my bacon in the last 2 there.

UrbanSea

I didn't back anything at Goodwood apart from Manighar,raging. Saved my day with the winner in the last at Galway there.

The Recliner

Nulty wrote: »

Oh, I forgot to mention....I'm cursed

:pac:

Well we got something back on it so it didn't work out too badly

I wont ban you this time

Kod-box

Kod-box wrote: »

Hughes and Hannon on some form, saved my bacon in the last 2 there.

again today, 2 absolute gents

anyone see that last race, what an excellent jockey to get it up after getting interferred with