Analysys Mason NGN study

bealtine

http://www.siliconrepublic.com/comms/item/17057-analysys-mason-ngn-study/

A €2.5bn capital investment will be necessary to invest in the rollout of next-generation broadband access which will in turn provide Ireland with the economic stimulus it needs, the telecoms industry led by TIF revealed.

The report by Analysys Mason, commissioned by the Telecommunications and Internet Federation (TIF) said that a multi-platform access network would require €2.5bn. The report will be discussed at the 17th annual TIF Conference at Dublin Castle on 12 October.
Driving economic recovery

TIF said that next-generation access networks (NGAs) have the potential to drive economic recovery by enhancing the development of Ireland’s smart economy.

The report says that Ireland must act quickly to avoid being left behind other countries that are accelerating investment in NGAs.

The report also points out that the high cost of deploying the networks in Ireland poses a significant challenge, as a gap exists between the price consumers are prepared to pay for network access and the cost of building the network.

“Investment in next-generation access is crucial for Ireland, and as an industry we are determined to play our role in making this investment a reality,” TIF chairman and director of wholesale at Eircom, John McKeon, explained.

“Analysys Mason estimates a cost of €2.5bn to build an NGA to serve the needs of Ireland’s consumers and businesses.

“If the investment is to be made, which we believe it must, it is essential that network operators work together with content providers, the Government and regulator to find a way to reduce and share the costs and risks associated with such a significant investment. We are confident that with such an approach Ireland can, and will, benefit from a world-class next-generation network.”

The report points out that in the 1980s and 1990s, Ireland was one of the world’s first nations to invest in a digital telecommunications network, at a cost of €10bn in today’s money.
Complexity in multi-platform network

While the sum of money required might seem modest by comparison, the report warns that the multi-platform network will be a complex endeavour that nonetheless must be made.

First, a next-generation access network will not be just one network but will in fact consist of many networks – including fibre to the home/fibre to the cabinet, cable TV, and 4G wireless networks. A key issue arises, therefore, as to how much of what type of network should be built and in what locations. In particular, how investment resources can be deployed in the most efficient way possible to avoid unnecessary "overbuild" of multiple networks in the same locations.

And secondly, the investment in these networks will not be made and co-ordinated by one single Government-controlled entity (as was the case with the digitalisation investment of the 1980s by the-then Telecom Eireann) but will involve multiple operators all with different business strategies.

TIF believes, as set out in its statement of 'Principles to inform the development of Next Generation Networks and Services' that the members of industry working together are best positioned to resolve these complexities in collaboration with other stakeholders, including Government and regulators.

The key steps to Ireland benefiting from a next-generation access network that will deliver the economic stimulus that competing in a digital economy will bring are as follows:

· Network sharing and collaborative investments by operators.

· A forward-looking regulatory approach.

· Forward-looking and pro-investment public policy by Government.

The report estimates that it would take at least 12 years for operators to recover investment costs not to mention return on investment from an NGA network – returns that are unsustainable in the private sector.

The only way the NGA can be deployed can be through three possible methods:

1. Charging consumers and businesses higher prices.

2. Investment by the State which in return would benefit from a more efficient and competitive national economy.

3. Or from somehow applying charges to online service providers who will benefit from a better infrastructure – raising the net neutrality debate.

“NGAs are likely to consist of multiple network platforms, including fibre to the home/cabinet, cable and 4G wireless,” said Peter Evans, vice-chairman of TIF’s broadband and NGN industry group and product director at BT.

“In addition to funding this investment, other challenges that need to be considered are aligning the business strategies of multiple operators in the market, competition challenges, declining revenues and the pace of technological changes.”

Tommy McCabe, director of TIF, said there is widespread agreement that Ireland needs a state-of-the-art telecoms infrastructure.

“As a nation, we need to be ambitious with regard to what we can achieve as we turn our focus to economic recovery and growth. This TIF report will facilitate an informed dialogue with the key stakeholders in the coming months,” McCabe said.

John Kennedy

watty

However "4G" is not going to be a significant game changer, it's hyped way beyond what it's capabile of as was 3G.

I hope no-one is suggesting 4G is a Rural Broadband solution as it isn't. This is the same Analysis Mason that has done such a good job advising the Government on the NBS and suitability of a Hong Kong 3G mobile phone company to do it, then "monitor it"?

Sponge Bob

And the wholesale ethernet price list and industry processes are now out in the open for launch later today.

watty

I wonder did Analysis Mason's plan cost
http://www.reghardware.com/2010/07/27/virgin_media_pot_noodle/

Do you live in the Welsh village of Crumlin, Caerphilly? Then you may well be getting fast broadband next month, delivered via the town's many power poles.

Virgin Media today said it had selected the settlement - population 5724, welcomes careful drivers - to play host to its trial of the technology, which will see fibre-optic cable strung up between said pillars, which are owned by local power company Western Power Distribution.

Virgin is working on the project with telco Surf Telecoms which just so happens to be owned by WPD.

The ISP said it will offer townsfolk 50Mb/s broaband. The trial will run into 2011.

The scheme follows one initiated by Virgin in April in the Berkshire village of Woolhampton. There, the ISP is cabling up homes by running its cables over telegraph poles.

There should be economical "way leave" for overhead Fibre on ESB & eircom road side poles. Also in the UK they use a gizmo (ideal for our footpath-less rural roads) that digs a small slot to bury about 1km of fibre a day.

Mobile should be no part of any National Next Generation plan other than to have only one wholesale operator per band to have spectrum efficiency.

clohamon

watty wrote: »

I wonder did Analysis Mason's plan cost
http://www.reghardware.com/2010/07/27/virgin_media_pot_noodle/


There should be economical "way leave" for overhead Fibre on ESB & eircom road side poles. Also in the UK they use a gizmo (ideal for our footpath-less rural roads) that digs a small slot to bury about 1km of fibre a day.

Mobile should be no part of any National Next Generation plan other than to have only one wholesale operator per band to have spectrum efficiency.

I believe the Ditch Witch is a very fine trencher (video - really only for trenching enthusiasts)


We could wait another decade hoping the €2.5B needed for NGN will somehow become less, or that private companies will voluntarily forego profits in the national interest, or that customers will subvent it with significantly higher line rental.

Difficult long term funding of public goods and services is why most countries have governments. Paul Donovan talks a bit of sense about it here (video) and is explicitly critical of the lack of leadership from government (from 3:05)

(Analysys Mason are also doing a study for Eircom. I wonder if they'll end up giving three different answers to three different clients ?)

rob808

clohamon wrote: »

I believe the Ditch Witch is a very fine trencher (video - really only for trenching enthusiasts)


We could wait another decade hoping the €2.5B needed for NGN will somehow become less, or that private companies will voluntarily forego profits in the national interest, or that customers will subvent it with significantly higher line rental.

Difficult long term funding of public goods and services is why most countries have governments. Paul Donovan talks a bit of sense about it here (video) and is explicitly critical of the lack of leadership from government (from 3:05)

(Analysys Mason are also doing a study for Eircom. I wonder if they'll end up giving three different answers to three different clients ?)

I think the goverment FIANNA FAIL should stop talking about a smart enconomy if it not going to invest in broadband because you cant have one on a out of date network.I think if NGN ever gona happen it definitly wont happen for a decade like till 2020 and it be mostly FTTC ,4G ,ADSL+2 and small part being FTTH. The cable will be up to UPC if the they want to expand.

clohamon

rob808 wrote: »

I think if NGN ever gona happen it definitly wont happen for a decade like till 2020

I'm sure if they sit back for long enough something good will happen.

rob808

clohamon wrote: »

I'm sure if they sit back for long enough something good will happen.

or notting like it is usually the way ireland never gona have a NGN it just a pipe dream like the smart economy fianna fail and Green party keep taking about it like fine gael newera but at least they see importance of a state of the art network we need in the future which isn't coming any time soon with the current government policies.

watty

€39 Billion investment in current seven year plan (after cuts from about 86 Billion?).
Least cuts in Dublin.

NGN/Fibre for all/universal Broadband is less than €2Billion.

CelticTigress

I 'm not asking for super-fast broadband. I really don't care if super-fast broadband or "next generation" broadband never reaches my corner of Inishowen Co. Donegal.

I'm not fussy.

I JUST WANT ORDINARY BROADBAND same as other people in the country get. Same as some towns in Inishowen get, but not mine.

Let them update every exchange in the country to some kind of broadband, not mobile, not satellite, but plain ordinary broadband coming down the pipe from my phone exchange... and not some nebulous scheme, EVERY exchange... THEN talk about fast and superfast high speed stuff. Until then, I'm not listening.

clohamon

CelticTigress wrote: »

I 'm not asking for super-fast broadband. I really don't care if super-fast broadband or "next generation" broadband never reaches my corner of Inishowen Co. Donegal.

I'm not fussy.

I JUST WANT ORDINARY BROADBAND same as other people in the country get. Same as some towns in Inishowen get, but not mine.

Let them update every exchange in the country to some kind of broadband, not mobile, not satellite, but plain ordinary broadband coming down the pipe from my phone exchange... and not some nebulous scheme, EVERY exchange... THEN talk about fast and superfast high speed stuff. Until then, I'm not listening.

The argument for fibre on this forum (as I understand it) is not all about super-fast speed, but more about reach. Those that are beyond the range of DSL broadband on copper, will be accessible with a fibre network.

watty

yes...

Urban: Absolute minimum 20Mbps. 100Mbps + if possible

• Cable DOCSIS 3.0
• Fibre to Home

Suburban: Absolute minimum 20Mbps. 30Mbps to 100Mbps if possible

• Cable DOCSIS 3.0
• Fibre to Home
• Fibre to Cabinet with VDSL to Home on copper.

Rural: Absolute minimum 8Mbps. 10Mbps to 20Mbps if possible

1. Fibre to Cabinet with VDSL to Home on copper.
2. Fibre to Cabinet with ADSL2+ to Home on copper.
3. Fibre to Cabinet with ADSL2+ + DSL repeater to Home on copper.
4. Fibre* to Mast with Fixed WiMax, Fixed LTE or Fixed DOCSIS. Max 20:1 contention

(in order of priority, *means possible 100Mbps or better dedicated Microwave point to point link to nearest fibre instead of direct fibre feed)

No one to get worse than 8Mbps 30ms ping 20:1 Broadband (5% to 10%). 10% to get 10Mbps to < 20Mbps. 80% to get 20Mbps.

No Mobile/Nomadic versions (LTE WiMax, 3G/HSPA+ or WiDox). Any wireless masts are dedicated Fixed only band with outdoor aerials on users with nomadic/mobile users forbidden on same band.

ro2

watty wrote: »

€39 Billion investment in current seven year plan (after cuts from about 86 Billion?).
Least cuts in Dublin.

NGN/Fibre for all/universal Broadband is less than €2Billion.

That struck me too. The interconnector from Heuston to Connolly is going to cost in the region of €2.5b. Would we not be better off replacing our entire telecoms infrastructure, which would arguably benefit the majority of the population, or build a tunnel which would benefit a few thousand.

I'm sure some of the people that would use the tunnel wouldn't need it in the first place if they could get fibre.

(I'm not anti-tunnel btw - just using it as an example)

watty

There even is a tunnel. With trains on it. Already! All they need is a light shuttle service on the existing Tunnel under Phoenix park from Heuston to Connolly.

It's been dubbed "Perhaps the best kept secret in the history of rail transport anywhere in Europe."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mvgt_02WQv4

http://derek-wheeler.blogspot.com/2009/01/phoenix-park-tunnel-truth.html

If the existing passenger trains really are too big (you know we use wider gauge rail than most yet standard carriages, so how is it possible for the passenger train to be too big?) buy one smaller shuttle service rolling stock.

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/83642bn-rail-link-to-go-ahead-despite-working-ghost-line-existing-1230026.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liffey_Bridge_%28Phoenix_Park_Tunnel%29

http://www.railusers.ie/campaigns/phoenix_tunnel/


However "Transport" experts say we do actually need a new tunnel, more luas, a Metro etc... That we are Decades behind everyone else in Europe on Transport, esp. in Dublin ...


Do we do anything right ?