Are used car prices rising, falling or steady?

Treehouse72

Apologies, I don't watch the used car market much so don't really have a sense of the trend in prices over recent months. Was wondering whether you think used car prices rising, falling or holding steady?

Intuitively, I would have thought that a recession would see used car prices holding steady on the basis that demand for cheaper goods - like used cars - is bound to be stronger. I could be wrong on that though - for example the scrappage scheme might be increasing used car stock, thus depressing price.

It also occurs to me that different parts of the market might be performing differently. For example, high-end cars falling in price (recession + scrappage scheme) while prices at the bottom could be rising (higher demand for low-cost cars). But again, that's just a guess.

Any thoughts?

opinion guy

My rough impression after paying some attention over the last few months is the prices are falling. But thats a very rough estimate.

Max Power1

opinion guy wrote: »

My rough impression after paying some attention over the last few months is the prices are falling. But thats a very rough estimate.

especially in petrol models over 1.6 litres.

Big Nasty

Depends totally on the car.

Typically what's really selling is anything petrol or diesel under 1.8 and considered reliable. I.e. Fiesta, Focus, Corolla, Avensis, Passat, Golf type car betwwen 04-08 with NCT. Therefore these type cars are in high demand and are actually going up in price.

Anything above 2L can be got for a song! High powered cars are often cheaper than their UK equivalents as they are less expensive to run under the UK road tax system.

Bigus

Here's a simplistic view of todays car market
Cars under 5k selling very well and qiuckly cars under 10k selling ok cars under 15k slow and cars over 20 falling below 20 or won't sell.(no matter what they are)


cars approaching 10 years old suffering from forthcoming nct rules (need nct every year)

Big stuff worth nothing especially over 2.0 and higher although a lot have gone for export.

so cheap stuff firming in price

Treehouse72

Thanks for comments.

I'm in the market for either a used Merc SL or a Mazda RX8...seems from what people are saying those cars may well moderate in price in the coming months. Will keep my eyes peeled and think again in Winter.

flanzer

Expect 05, 06, 07 large family diesels to increase next year also when all taxis over 9 years old have to be off the road, hence the demand increases

Bigus

flanzer wrote: »

Expect 05, 06, 07 large family diesels to increase next year also when all taxis over 9 years old have to be off the road, hence the demand increases

Only ones on the qualifying list

Bigus

Treehouse72 wrote: »

Thanks for comments.

I'm in the market for either a used Merc SL or a Mazda RX8...seems from what people are saying those cars may well moderate in price in the coming months. Will keep my eyes peeled and think again in Winter.

Go only for the SL

Treehouse72

Bigus wrote: »

Go only for the SL

The thing with the SL is I don't know if I'm prepared to pay €200+ pm on tax and insurance before I even sit in the thing.

But I appreciate the advice - I know that RX8's can be a real handful, but am taking that into account in making the decision. If the choice is between a €12k 2000 SL (+ tax + insurance) or an €8k 2004 RX8 (+ tax + insurance) there would be c. €10k in difference between the two over 5 years. That's a lot of cash...in theory I could even buy a replacement RX8 after that time for the price difference. It's a conundrum I'm grappling with at the moment.

Eric Cartman

anything good is going down in price (cars above 2 litre) but small cars and 1.6-1.8 diesels are going up in price (with the 9 year taxi rule and everyones sudden love of diesel) , pre 02 saloons can be got for nothing as taxi drivers cant buy them , and large engined sportscars and luxobarges have never been cheaper all in all its sh*t buzz for the high mile-er or family buying 2nd hand, but to the motoring enthusiast who doesnt stupidly follow the "its over 300 euro road tax, quick , run away" brigade its a nice time to be buying some seriously powerful motors

skyhighflyer

I think prices have been steady for the past year, and in some cases have been rising.

I've been looking at the prices of used Alfa GTs for example, and a 2005 example costs pretty much the same as it did last year. Given that in real terms the car is a year older, prices would therefore appear to be rising (i.e. a 2006 model this year will cost more than a 2005 model did last year or, to put it another way, a four year old GT costs more this year than it did last year).

I also predict that this year will be the last year for bargains: we've had almost two years of very depressed car sales and in two years' time there will be a much much lower number of used motors to choose from, which will push prices up. To take another example, someone who wanted to buy a 2005 3 series in 2008 would have been spoiled for choice; someone who wants to buy a 2010 model in 2013 is going to have feck all to choose from .

A lot of the recession bargains have been snapped up and I hear from the trade that people looking to downsize or deleverage mean that reasonable-priced two to four year old small-engined or diesel family cars are like gold dust now. Happily, those kinds of cars don't interest me so I'll have a pristine E39 530i for €6k thank you very much

Moral of the stroy: if you want to buy something nice now, then get while the gettin's still good. If you're looking for a humdrum recession-mobile, then hard luck because they're all gone or cost silly money.

CaraFawn

To me prices dropped significantely the last year after XMAS 2008, I noticed many cars were available for cheap til, between around January 2009 to October-November 2009. Then values went up again a bit before XMAS 2009 and today are still high.

skyhighflyer

Treehouse72 wrote: »

The thing with the SL is I don't know if I'm prepared to pay €200+ pm on tax and insurance before I even sit in the thing.

But I appreciate the advice - I know that RX8's can be a real handful, but am taking that into account in making the decision. If the choice is between a €12k 2000 SL (+ tax + insurance) or an €8k 2004 RX8 (+ tax + insurance) there would be c. €10k in difference between the two over 5 years. That's a lot of cash...in theory I could even buy a replacement RX8 after that time for the price difference. It's a conundrum I'm grappling with at the moment.

I'm no expert, but I very much doubt a 2000 Mercedes SL will be significantly cheaper in 5 months' time. In fact, i'd be expecting the prices of good ones to hold steady or even rise slightly. I'd also be willing to bet that a well-looked after SL500 (don't bother with the 320, tax insurance and even fuel costs will likely be the same) bought for €12k this year will be worth the same or more in two years time. I doubt the same will hold true for the RX-8 as I reckon, rightly or wrongly, their technology and concerns about the longevity of a high mile rotary engine will scare off propsective buyers.

Motorcheck

You might find this article interesting

Treehouse72

skyhighflyer wrote: »

I'm no expert, but I very much doubt a 2000 Mercedes SL will be significantly cheaper in 5 months' time. In fact, i'd be expecting the prices of good ones to hold steady or even rise slightly. I'd also be willing to bet that a well-looked after SL500 (don't bother with the 320, tax insurance and even fuel costs will likely be the same) bought for €12k this year will be worth the same or more in two years time.

5th Generation Mercedes SL's are now touching the prices that 4th Generation ones were 10 months ago when this thread was started:

http://www.carzone.ie/search/Mercedes-Benz/SL-Class/2DR-AUTO/201116202090382/advert?channel=CARS

My God, €14,995 (minus haggling premium) for that thing of beauty makes me drool. This one is still something of an price outlier on the low side, but whereas last year I was weighing up a 4th G for €12k, I'd now be weighing up a 5th G for ~ that price. (Would be, if I had, you know, any bloody money!!).

Voodoomelon

Only in Ireland is one of these



...the same price as one of these



Long may it continue.

I remember years ago as a child, maybe 9 or 10 years old, why oh why everyone bought sh1t cars? I used to flip through the classifieds in the Sunday papers looking at the second hand value out there and wondered why no one bought top end luxury/performance cars at knock down prices.

I remember my dad was looking at getting another Renault 21 or whatever second hand and I said to my mother why doesn't he buy something like this for the same money, pointing at a fully loaded Ford Scorpio with a 2.3l engine. "The tax my boy, THE TAX". Good to see things have changed in this country! :rolleyes:

rebel.ranter

I agree Voodoo, the other nutty thing is those that spend tens of thousands so they can get the cheap motor tax!
Give me a luxobarge any day!

Voodoomelon

Indeed. I used to hate the fact that every car we ever got had loads of blanked out buttons on the dash where all "the fancy stuff" should be. I think we went through 15 years of family cars before we even got alloy wheels!

Voodoomelon

Voodoomelon wrote: »

I remember years ago as a child, maybe 9 or 10 years old, why oh why everyone bought sh1t cars?

So did I, then along came the mortgage, life insurance, VHI etc and I can appreciate why folks opt for a boring basic yoke rather than chancing the more exotic option. If I had sprogs to bring up I'd sooner pay €300/annum motor tax than €1000/annum motor tax. The €700 saved would pay for plenty of activities for the little dudes at weekends etc.

unkel

RoverJames wrote: »

I can appreciate why folks opt for a boring basic yoke

Nobody is denying there are different priorities for different folks and of course depending on a budget too. The funny (and Irish) thing is that people have no problem forking out €10k for a piece of sh1t with €100 motortax, instead of a much nicer car, which won't cost a cent more in total cost of ownership, because the "tax is too high"

Voodoomelon

RoverJames wrote: »

So did I, then along came the mortgage, life insurance, VHI etc and I can appreciate why folks opt for a boring basic yoke rather than chancing the more exotic option. If I had sprogs to bring up I'd sooner pay €300/annum motor tax than €1000/annum motor tax. The €700 saved would pay for plenty of activities for the little dudes at weekends etc.

I get what you're saying, my example was a bit extreme, theres no denying servicing and taxing a CL is a lot higher than a KIA, however your typical Irish buyer could have something so much better for the same money in virtually all scenarios as Unkel said, its just blind ignorance, usually caused by the tax figure alone.

Treehouse72

unkel wrote: »

.The funny (and Irish) thing is that people have no problem forking out €10k for a piece of sh1t with €100 motortax, instead of a much nicer car, which won't cost a cent more in total cost of ownership, because the "tax is too high"

Could you give us an example?

The difference in tax between the Kia and CL above would be around 1k pa, while parts servicing would be much more for the CL. And of course there's the insurance too.

voxpop

Treehouse72 wrote: »

Could you give us an example?

The difference in tax between the Kia and CL above would be around 1k pa, while parts servicing would be much more for the CL. And of course there's the insurance too.

I think the point is that ppl pay 10k+ for a newer car with low tax when they could buy a big engined older car for say 4k and even paying the extra tax, the total cost of ownership over 2-3 years would be the same or better for the big engined cars - especially when depreciation is taken into account.

Bigus

Voodoomelon wrote: »

I get what you're saying, my example was a bit extreme, theres no denying servicing and taxing a CL is a lot higher than a KIA, however your typical Irish buyer could have something so much better for the same money in virtually all scenarios as Unkel said, its just blind ignorance, usually caused by the tax figure alone.

In reality CL will cost 1566 per year in tax or 1768 if you do it quarterly.
10000 miles of fuel @15 mpg will cost 4650 at todays prices and if you do 7000 miles around town the figure will drop to 11 mpg in reality

Insurance will prob cost at least an extra 1000 if your over 40 and a lot more if younger.
Maintenence and tyres will prob average 2k per year also

So the merc will run at around 9k per year if you drive it or around 6k if you only do a few miles but keep it taxed.

The kia would cost 104 in tax and 1200 in fuel for 10k miles and probably less than 300 to insure if your over 30

Ok so depreciation will be a big factor in both but more so on the merc in this case after 3 years.

Food for thought
i'm not saying which i'd go buy
but lads cop on to economic reality in this country some people can't afford a pint never mind big road tax.

Most of these big yokes are going for export now !

Voodoomelon

As I said, an extreme example. But if you were looking to drop say €16k-18k on a newish 2 door 1.9tdi Golf or the likes which would you go for, an €11k CL500 or the Golf? I also disagree with the depreciation comment, that CL500 isn't going to drop much lower.

Assuming a 2-3 year ownership, theres nothing in it.

Bigus

depreciation here's a clean 2001 CL 500 asking 5995
http://cars.donedeal.ie/for-sale/cars/2119681

Voodoomelon

Thats the older pre-upgrade CL with no mention of mileage and no AMG pack, everything is priced accordingly.

EPM

Looks rough too, and no mention of service history either. Also, if they are it's best angles........