Land Prices

johnpawl

So do ye think land prices will go up or down in the next five years?? Thinking of buying land nearby that has come up but not sure.... Land has not ever been worked and is growing rushes at moment, but would be okay if drained I'd say... has patches of dry ground in between and is on a fall down to a river, no drains anywhere at moment... So what'd land like this make per acre around ye?

irishh_bob

i believe land will see at least another 30% drop but i also believe that quality dairy farms will hold or even rise somewhat in value , marginal land or drystock farms with poor infrastructure in the back of beyond is still twice to dear

reilig

irishh_bob wrote: »

i believe land will see at least another 30% drop but i also believe that quality dairy farms will hold or even rise somewhat in value , marginal land or drystock farms with poor infrastructure in the back of beyond is still twice to dear

Agree with you somewhat Bob. I think its very difficult to predict for sure that it will fall. I know that a lot of the builders are out of the picture for putting land up, but some farmers are hoarders and some in every area have money put away just waiting for the right bit of land and there will still be good bidding for land when people lose the fear that the whole economy is going to go bust and the country coming to a hault. In relation to the op's question, people during the recession of the 1980's held back on buying land with the hope that it would fall in price and it didn't, well not around here anyway. I'm not disagreeing with your the point that you're making and land could fall in price, but if there's a bit of land that suits the op and he/she has the means to buy it then I would advise them to think carefully about it. A piece of land that joins your own is more valuable to you than a piece a couple of miles away - in my opinion.

I suppose its down to the access to the land for the op.

me_right_one

Prices are still too dear, but I cant see them dropping a penny further. The recession will be over and the economy on the up in 5 years (probably), so I'd say to the OP to buy it if you have your eye on it, cos it can only go up from this point. Land like that around Meath is about 10K per acre. Obviously it can vary quite a bit

irishh_bob

me_right_one wrote: »

Prices are still too dear, but I cant see them dropping a penny further. The recession will be over and the economy on the up in 5 years (probably), so I'd say to the OP to buy it if you have your eye on it, cos it can only go up from this point. Land like that around Meath is about 10K per acre. Obviously it can vary quite a bit

our DEPRESSION isnt anywhere near over and even when it is , we will have ongoing stagnation for a long time to come IMO and thier wont be another property boom for another generation . property has been the bane of this countrys existance

me_right_one

irishh_bob wrote: »

our DEPRESSION isnt anywhere near over and even when it is , we will have ongoing stagnation for a long time to come IMO and thier wont be another property boom for another generation . property has been the bane of this countrys existance

The famine lasted 5 yrs, WW2 lasted 5 years, both those things were waaaaaaaaaay worse then what we're experiencing now. We are 2 years into this, nearly at the mid-point if you're talking about 5 year chunks of time. Things will rise slightly after half-way. I bet you next year unemployment will have remained level, and our national debt will begin to receed. Stagnation will occur, but it will become normalised, as in it will be normal to not have a John Deere, or a holiday every year, or a new car, or sky, or a job that pays more than min wage. This is the way it always was, living standards will just contract to fit our means, and we'll all be fine. I dont know what age you are, but depending on where you live in the country, if you're over 60 the chances are you left school at 12 and grew up without electricity. Imagine that today!

I agree with you about property being the bane of our country, its the bane of every counrty's existance, and with good reason. No land, no food, no life. Simple. That is why it will hold its value regardless of the economy, someone with a stash of cash will always pay more for it than its worth (or kill for it). Until Vietnam, every single war in the history of humankind was fought over land. You're arts degree and 47 inch widescreen are worthless if everybody is starving. And we all know in this country how easily that can happen. Thankfully, although things seem bad at the moment, we are a far cry from seeing any real hardship.

OP I'd say land prices will prob drop about 5% more next year, but then bounce back about 20%over the next 5 years. So if you want to save a few pound, buy soon.

irishh_bob

me_right_one wrote: »

The famine lasted 5 yrs, WW2 lasted 5 years, both those things were waaaaaaaaaay worse then what we're experiencing now. We are 2 years into this, nearly at the mid-point if you're talking about 5 year chunks of time. Things will rise slightly after half-way. I bet you next year unemployment will have remained level, and our national debt will begin to receed. Stagnation will occur, but it will become normalised, as in it will be normal to not have a John Deere, or a holiday every year, or a new car, or sky, or a job that pays more than min wage. This is the way it always was, living standards will just contract to fit our means, and we'll all be fine. I dont know what age you are, but depending on where you live in the country, if you're over 60 the chances are you left school at 12 and grew up without electricity. Imagine that today!

I agree with you about property being the bane of our country, its the bane of every counrty's existance, and with good reason. No land, no food, no life. Simple. That is why it will hold its value regardless of the economy, someone with a stash of cash will always pay more for it than its worth (or kill for it). Until Vietnam, every single war in the history of humankind was fought over land. You're arts degree and 47 inch widescreen are worthless if everybody is starving. And we all know in this country how easily that can happen. Thankfully, although things seem bad at the moment, we are a far cry from seeing any real hardship.

OP I'd say land prices will prob drop about 5% more next year, but then bounce back about 20%over the next 5 years. So if you want to save a few pound, buy soon.

speaking of property , you,ve sure covered a lot of ground in that post

8560

good post bob ,when everything else is f--ked, farming looks good.

Mozart1986

An Irish default will be considerably worse (personally I like the idea because it will be a time for the really clever people to shine) than the 80s or 50s, in terms of relative downturns. I mean, modernisation will not be totally reversed and we won't go back as far as the 50s (maybe the living standards of the 80s), but it will last a lot longer than 5 years. Property prices were not driven up by rich farmers, they were driven up by developers, banks, accountants and solicitors, and they are still being artificially held up by NAMA. To get back to real value they will have to properly collapse, that means another 30%. That will happen in a default because the Government won't be able to support the artificial limbo economy we have now.

That does not mean that this is a bad time to buy. As a previous poster said, if its connected to your own land then it is worth an extra 20-30% in my view. Food production will also go through some changes in the next few years and having a bit of land will, in my view be invaluable, which is why we are currently persuing the same goal.

But make no bones about it, IF Ireland defaults, land prices WILL collapse further as they are being propped up now by land-owners holding onto the boom due to their own debts. If many land owners sell at real prices then they are bankrupt. It certainly looks likely that Ireland will default because GDP (@ 2.5%) is far less than the interest of our debts (@ 6%). GNP is something like -0.8%, and some economists would say that this is a more important figure due to the amount of multinationals fueling our economy, who are not necessarilly going to stay here if we have to raise taxes to pay of the interest.

Jus' sayin':}