Will Labour have a TD in Mayo in the next Election?

alex73

Will Labour have a TD in Mayo in the next Election? If so which of the current 5 TD will loose their seat.

Gilmore predicts a TD in every constituency, but in the 2007 election labour came nowhere near winning a seat in Mayo.... However that WAS 2007.

PogMoThoin

Beverly Flynn won't lose HIS seat

alex73

Mod: apologies can you change Will Beverley Flynn loose his seat to her seat

threebeards

The biggest problem in my opinion to Labour winning a seat in Mayo is putting forward a credible candidate. I heard it mentioned that Jerry Cowley could run on the Labour ticket but I think he dirtied his bib over Shell to Sea. Michael Kilcoyne is another I heard mentioned but outside of Castlebar I don't see him polling strongly. AFAIK there isn't even a current sitting Labour Mayo County Councillor so that probably tells you all you need to know about the strength of the party in the county.

nuac

Doubtful if Michael Kilcoyne would ever re-join Labour. If he did he would be their best prospect for a seat. Family origins in Louisburgh - long time trade union activist and an undertaker. Good occupations for meeting people. Greets everybody.. Well known around the county, not just in Castlebar.

Labour should have concentrated on developing Barrett in Castlebar or Martin in Westport, rather than parachuting in Gerry Cowley

Jury out on Gerry Cowley. Was considered a Flynn supporter, then committed to being an independent, now with Labour. In his time made many of Shell to Sea seem exemplars of moderation.

Was Into "direct action" e.g. taking over Enda Kenny's office - and him a qualified medical doctor and barrister! Not a well-received move in Mayo - Enda popular and well liked by even his political opponents

As long as Enda Kenny is FG leader the "Mayo Taoiseach" should see FG safe with 3, last two between FF and Kilcoyne.

If there is another heave and this time succeeds, ( very unlikely IMHO ) all sortsw of possiblities.

John O'Mahoney may lose some support as he is no longer GAA senior team manager. Michelle Mulherin is ready, willing and able. Some of the FG councillors may back her more next time - she is a lot younger than FG's current three TDs and has potential.

Interesting times.

dec25532

If the last polls are to be believed then Labour would have to win a seat in both Mayo and Galway East to reflect their level of support. Can't see this happening.

threebeards

nuac wrote: »

Michelle Mulherin is ready, willing and able. Some of the FG councillors may back her more next time - she is a lot younger than FG's current three TDs and has potential.

I agree about Michelle Mulherin but do you think it could be to the detriment of Dara Calleary? In my opinion Kenny and Ring are certainties, Mulherin is a probable and anything could happen after that. East Mayo could return O'Mahoney to guarantee representation for them in that area.

I don't think it's beyond the realms of possiblity that FG could have a clean sweep.

nuac

Threebeards

I think if Michelle Mulherin wre elected it would probably be at Dara Calleary's expense. Ballina and area will cross party lines and vote 1.2 Calleary/Mulherin or vice versa to ensure they keep repreesentatio.

Perhaps her best chance was 2007 GE. Dara has now got some promotion and a raised profile nationally and locally,. No matter how unpopular FF may be, he will get a good vote as a young TD with a future.

FG did not give Michelle all the support she was entitled to last time. Some FG councillors in her area supported other candidates, a Fg Town COuncillor did not support her for the TC chair etc etc.

The fact that the existing three Mayo FG TD's are no longer in first flush of youth may also help Michelle.

As egards FG having a clean sweep - I think they will get 3 seats. FF one certain and a scrap FF Kilcoyne for last seat.

alex73

For sure Michelle was the is the best candidate for Ballina (just look at her CV compared to Calleary) Dara only got elected because of his party and Grandfather. He is a good TD for Ballina, no doubt, but Michelle would be a better one.

finisklin

I think that the timing of the general election will have a big part to play in how things shape up in Mayo. For example, if the government limps on till 2012 that means 2 harsh budgets will have been pushed through sucking out €6bn + out of the economy. That brings a significant amount of pain as a large portion will come from cutbacks. This is where Joe voting Public will feel the pinch and will look for retribution.

In that 2012 scenario, Mayo may return no FF TDs. Calleary and Flynn's seats have to be up for grabs....a recent poll indicated that Calleary was in danger of losing his seat.

http://www.mayonews.ie/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=9452:calleary-defends-ff-despite-polls-predicting-election-wipeout&catid=23:news&Itemid=46

This also begs the question of the strength of the core FF vote in mayo and I would be interested in what people think of the strength or not of this given the harsh economic medicine being administered and constant media barracking of the governemnt and its decisions?

I think FG will definitely return 3 TDs - Inda, Ring & O'Mahony. Despite the latter's poor form with Mayo where the effect of double jobbing clearly effected his energy and stamina levels something had to give way. Unfortunatley it was Mayo football that suffered and whether the Mayo GAA public hold this agin him, remains to be seen. IMO a forth FG TD in Mayo may not be healthy for the county, and Mulhearn is probably the weakest of the four FGers in that her depth and substance are untested nationally. Yes she has the soundbytes and has good PR catching initiatives (Mary Robinson Bridge in Ballina, Liam & Noel Gallagher freemen of Mayo etc.) but other than that her role electorally may be to act as a bulwark agin Calleary, Flynn. I appreciate she may not admit same.

That brings me to Cowley....He missed the boat in 2007 when his energy, motivational levels for the ardous election campaign flagged from the start in north Mayo. His canvassing and feet on the ground in key areas were not the same as in 2002, and this hurt (whatever about the Rossport misadventure) his chances.

The ironic thing about him not getting elected was that he would have been in a stronger position to deliver for his constituents than any of the others as he would have had an opportunity to negotiate a good deal for Mayo to support Bertie's governemnt a la Jackie Healy Rae, Finian McGrath and Mike Lowry.

This time around the benefit of having a national organisation such as the labour party to help develop an effective campaign (posters, canvassers, overall media etc.) will stand to him. He is not a newbie and the Mayo electorate are aware of him, whether his labour party credentials will stand to him, I am unsure. As someone pointed out there is no labour member on MCC. As an aside, Gilmore's right hand man, PR guru, Mark Garret is from Mayo.

Someone pointed out about Calleary being the son of a son of a TD, this can be a good thing or a bad thing. It certainly places pressure on him to maintain the dynasty and keep the gig going. This I think for him is his motivation and my issue with family dynasty's in politics. It's not so much for the consitituents but for the family.

Kilcoyne will be there and the Flynn organisation split in Castlebar will help him.

An election before year end would possibly bring Inda, Ring, O'Mahony, Calleary & Kilcoyne/Cowley. Otherwise could be a FF wipe out.......

nuac

Just a few point Finiskiln

Yes there will be tough budgets to come. Both FF and FG accept that, and I do not see a FF wipe out. Labour prefers to dodge such issues for now, but if they do get into government they will have difficult decisions also

O'Mahoney got a huge push the last time from the GAA - as senior team manager he was at every GAA function all over the county, making contacts, being photographed for the local papers etc. GAA support is a powerful electoral asset in Mayo - viz Henry Kenny, Enda's father, Enda himself, Seán Flanagan, Denis Gallagher. All that support somewhat overshadowed Michelle Mulherins campaign - next time it will be different.

About Dara Calleary = his grandfather was an able and energetic politician - saw him in action at a difficult meeting. His father Seán was a gentler character - lost out in promotion stakes to the more ambitious Padraig Flynn. Ballina people perceived that Castlebar was gaining at Ballina's expense.

Calleary well able to fight his corner - is moving well party wise, being Minister for State in two key Ministries. Not to be underestimated.

Re Jerry Cowley - he has ridden a few horses and the Labour one may be one too many. There is little Labour organisation in Mayo. A club each in Castlebar and Westport, who were just about able to elect an Urban Councillor each, failed at County Council level. The only Labour County Councillor to date was Johnny Mee who was hugely popular after a lifetime in community affairs - it was a Mee rather than a Labour vote.

It does not matter what Mayo native may be prominent in the higher reaches of the Labour party. Nearly all political parties in Mayo resent any diktats or directives from party HQ. The exception is SF who are still run on Stalinist lines - very much top down.

Kilcoyne IMHO is the man to watch - he will pick up any Labour votes going. I have seen him working crowds. Meets and greets everybody

threebeards

nuac wrote: »

Calleary well able to fight his corner - is moving well party wise, being Minister for State in two key Ministries. Not to be underestimated.

Agree to a point Nuac but I think the biggest obstacle to him will be the party he represents - I don't so much believe it will be what he can poll, more what he can prevent polling against him.

nuac wrote: »

Re Jerry Cowley - he has ridden a few horses and the Labour one may be one too many. There is little Labour organisation in Mayo. A club each in Castlebar and Westport, who were just about able to elect an Urban Councillor each, failed at County Council level. The only Labour County Councillor to date was Johnny Mee who was hugely popular after a lifetime in community affairs - it was a Mee rather than a Labour vote.

I can't tell you how accurate that last statement is. Johnny Mee was very much a man of the people and his vote was a personal one - not a party one.

nuac wrote: »

Kilcoyne IMHO is the man to watch - he will pick up any Labour votes going. I have seen him working crowds. Meets and greets everybody

I can't agree with this. He would be well known in Castlebar but outside of that I'm not convinced. His role as a "consumer champion" hasn't made him a household name and at the end of the day (as proven IMHO by John O'Mahoney) you need to be a recognised name before people will even consider a vote.

finisklin

nuac wrote: »

Just a few point Finiskiln

Yes there will be tough budgets to come. Both FF and FG accept that, and I do not see a FF wipe out. Labour prefers to dodge such issues for now, but if they do get into government they will have difficult decisions also

O'Mahoney got a huge push the last time from the GAA - as senior team manager he was at every GAA function all over the county, making contacts, being photographed for the local papers etc. GAA support is a powerful electoral asset in Mayo - viz Henry Kenny, Enda's father, Enda himself, Seán Flanagan, Denis Gallagher. All that support somewhat overshadowed Michelle Mulherins campaign - next time it will be different.

About Dara Calleary = his grandfather was an able and energetic politician - saw him in action at a difficult meeting. His father Seán was a gentler character - lost out in promotion stakes to the more ambitious Padraig Flynn. Ballina people perceived that Castlebar was gaining at Ballina's expense.

Calleary well able to fight his corner - is moving well party wise, being Minister for State in two key Ministries. Not to be underestimated.

Re Jerry Cowley - he has ridden a few horses and the Labour one may be one too many. There is little Labour organisation in Mayo. A club each in Castlebar and Westport, who were just about able to elect an Urban Councillor each, failed at County Council level. The only Labour County Councillor to date was Johnny Mee who was hugely popular after a lifetime in community affairs - it was a Mee rather than a Labour vote.

It does not matter what Mayo native may be prominent in the higher reaches of the Labour party. Nearly all political parties in Mayo resent any diktats or directives from party HQ. The exception is SF who are still run on Stalinist lines - very much top down.

Kilcoyne IMHO is the man to watch - he will pick up any Labour votes going. I have seen him working crowds. Meets and greets everybody

Just a quick follow up.....different era now politics and politicians are a totally different beast to back in the day. IMO that's not a good thing. The only qualification you need to be a politician/TD is to get the most votes/manage the vote transfer system.

Only threw in Mark Garrett as an aside, it is heartening to see that the county can not only produce a taiosieach in waiting but a political strategist that has helped guide Labour to the upper echelons of Irish politics. Though clearly what they stand for and what policies they would adopt has been nicely side stepped.

O'Mahony has more substance than Mulhearn, though to get elected now politicians have to be more adept at cultivating their profile rather than implementing and addressing change. Something which she is adept at.

Don't forget that North Mayo had no TD in 2002-2007. Plus Calleary ain't gonna go down with out a fight, now that the seat is cosy, his aim is to ensure he stays on it (or is it in it?:p). It's going to be interesting viewing regardless......

alex73

Beverly it seems was absent from Dail. And she does not want to comment on her attendance.


http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0729/politicians.html

Coillte_Bhoy

nuac wrote: »

Labour should have concentrated on developing Barrett in Castlebar or Martin in Westport, rather than parachuting in Gerry Cowley


Interesting times.

I dont think the term 'parachuting' can be used in realtion to Crowley in fairness

alex73

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

I dont think the term 'parachuting' can be used in realtion to Crowley in fairness

For sure not, Irish barrister, medical doctor and politician. Originally from Ballina. But he is involved in the shell to sea... I really don't think there is that much support in Mayo for Shell to sea. Its just a group of eco warriors and some locals, I have not found 1 person in Belmullet against the new plant.

So if Crowley is going to run for the next dail for Labour... he has a lot of work to do.

I think FG will have 2 TD's, FF 2 TD and may 1 indo, I can't for the life of me see Labour gain a seat in mayo. And as much as I don't like FF I think Calleary will keep his seat.

NUIG_FiannaFail

Hell will freeze over before them lefty pinkos win in a seat in a fine county like Mayo.

Coillte_Bhoy

NUIG_FiannaFail wrote: »

Hell will freeze over before them lefty pinkos win in a seat in a fine county like Mayo.

I wish there was a lefty pinko running in Mayo to vote for.:( An dont rule out a left seat, be it Kilcoyne or Crowley. The fine county of Mayo may have just had enough with the gombeen illiterate corrupt politics of FF.

alex73

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

I wish there was a lefty pinko running in Mayo to vote for.:( An dont rule out a left seat, be it Kilcoyne or Crowley. The fine county of Mayo may have just had enough with the gombeen illiterate corrupt politics of FF.

Problem in Mayo is that Political allegiance is almost like religion for 70% of the people.

NUIG_FiannaFail

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

I wish there was a lefty pinko running in Mayo to vote for.:( An dont rule out a left seat, be it Kilcoyne or Crowley. The fine county of Mayo may have just had enough with the gombeen illiterate corrupt politics of FF.

If the people of Mayo tire of Fianna Fáil then they'll just vote for Fine Gael. And when Fine Gael make an even bigger arse of things than we did ye'll come back and all will be forgotten. It's how politics has always been in Mayo and no pinkos will change that. Pinkos don't understand that people in the west want to own land and get grants for suckler cows.

alex73

NUIG_FiannaFail wrote: »

If the people of Mayo tire of Fianna Fáil then they'll just vote for Fine Gael. And when Fine Gael make an even bigger arse of things than we did ye'll come back and all will be forgotten. It's how politics has always been in Mayo and no pinkos will change that. Pinkos don't understand that people in the west want to own land and get grants for suckler cows.

I think the Greens will have a TD in Mayo sooner than Labour (say in 2080 when Ballina has 200,000 residents.. splutter splutter cough wink...

scrubber72

NUIG_FiannaFail wrote: »

If the people of Mayo tire of Fianna Fáil then they'll just vote for Fine Gael. And when Fine Gael make an even bigger arse of things than we did ye'll come back and all will be forgotten. It's how politics has always been in Mayo and no pinkos will change that. Pinkos don't understand that people in the west want to own land and get grants for suckler cows.

Finally an admission:rolleyes:

Coillte_Bhoy

NUIG_FiannaFail wrote: »

If the people of Mayo tire of Fianna Fáil then they'll just vote for Fine Gael. And when Fine Gael make an even bigger arse of things than we did ye'll come back and all will be forgotten. It's how politics has always been in Mayo and no pinkos will change that. Pinkos don't understand that people in the west want to own land and get grants for suckler cows.

Is that how you hope to win support?? By insulting people???

mayo_lad

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

Is that how you hope to win support?? By insulting people???

Coillte Bhoy
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