Amateur Game... Amateur Gambler

Sir Vival

After discovering the gambling forum during the world cup, i set up an account with pp to make the footy a little more interesting and to see if i could turn a profit. Unfortunately i didn't but managed to break even as i only betted with profit ( except at the beginning of course....)

Anyway i think i've learnt a bit from some of you guys over the past few weeks and now im going to put a bit more time, research and effort into my selections instead of betting on anything and everything.

My main sport is GAA and i would like to think i have a good enough knowledge of both the intercounty scene and the club scene (in connaught anyways...) to be able to make a bit of money out of it.

As from today i'll be putting all of my selections up here along with my thoughts and feelings on how the games will go.

The main mistake that i made during the world cup was making lots of little bets that didn't return an awful lot and seemed to chip consistantly away at my bank so my strategy will be to bet as big as is possible at the time (well not THAT big with my bank), after all if you dont think the bet is gonna be a winner then why bet on it at all? coughlan's log taught me this...

Im going to start with a bank of €30 with the initial aim of getting to €100 and then hopefully €200 before all-ireland final day.

Feel free to leave comments and your points of view on my selections, not that i'll need it...:rolleyes:

Sir Vival

Starting Bank: €30

Right, im going to start with a safe enough bet (here's hoping anyways)

4 way accumulator

(1) U-21 leinster hurling final: Dublin vs. Wexford. @1/6

The dubs have a good underage pedigree in the hurling for the last few years (this is their 8 leinster final since '01) . The fact that they beat kilkenny this year who have been in 6 of the last 7 all-ireland finals speaks for itself. I also know a few of the lads inside the dublin camp and they are very confident about beating wexford.

(2) Football qualifier: Offaly vs. Down @4/9

I was quite impressed with down in the ulster championship. Even though they came up short against tyrone who had a bit of an off day, i think that on their day they can give anyone a game. In marty clarke they have a fine free-taker from anywhere inside 50/60 yards and in benny coulter they have a seasoned championship performer who is always good for a goal. Add to that a few of the successful u-21's from last year and dan macartan in the middle of the park and you have the makings of a div. 2 team. On the other hand offaly football seems to be going south. Up until this season many of the players have never even won a championship match and even this year they have only unconvincinly beaten clare after extra time and waterford ( two weak divison 4 teams ). Offaly still soley rely on niall mcnamee to get all of their scores and i can see down doubling up on him and hence cutting out offaly's only threat.

Football qualifier: Wexford vs. Cork @1/7

Although wexford have home advantage for this, played quite well for alot of the game against dublin and beat galway in pearse stadium, im very confident that cork will win this by 5 or 6pts. Two of wexford's best forwards in the past few seasons seem to have gone off the boil. Matty forde clearly isn't fit or is carrying an injury and pj banville looked slow and carrying a bit of extra weight against galway ( i know it was very wet and windy but still...). Meanwhile cork have countless scoring forwards, a tight backline but a weakish midfield ( i dont believe wexford will be able to exploit this)

Connaught football final: Sligo vs. Roscommon @1/4

I believe sligo have enough to beat ros by 4 or 5pts. Sligo have won two biggish games against the kingpins of connaught which i believe will hold them in good stead, meanwhile ros were unconvincing against london and leitrim (in the 1st half). Roscommon's only threat is donie shine who will get them 7 or 8 pts from frees, 45's etc but he doesn't really contribute in normal play.. Apart from frees i cant see roscommon getting alot off the sligo defence. Compare that to sligo who have d.kelly ( surely has an all-star in his back pocket already, magee to kick the frees (if he's playin), brehony and costello who always chip in with 2 or 3 pts a piece. Add to that a mobile midfield, pacy scoring wing backs in davey and cawley and a true leader in O'Hara. I would say that a maximum of 2 ros players would make this sligo team, which itself shows the difference in class between the two teams. Forgot to mention also that sligo's performances aren't a fluke, 2 promotions in 2 years while ros will be playing div 4 next year..


€25 euro returns €60.19.

Closing Bank: €5
In play: €25

x PyRo

Great post, this is what I love to see!

Hope it wins and goes well for you.

coughlan08

just seen your log,wish you the best of luck mate..

nice to see you took something from my log,no doubt i will be taking some info from yours,this is what "boards gambling forum" is all about,trading one anothers info on the sport that they have an advantage in,thus everyone benefiting.

great read might take something from it.;)
coughlan

Sir Vival

Thanks for the comments guys.

Glad to come home from training to see: Dublin 2-15 wexford 0-15. Unfortunately i didn't get to watch the match on tg4 due to the above but from reading the report Dublin were behind and up against it for a lot of the match.

Anyways nice to get a bit of luck at the start and at least my bet will make it to the weekend..:)

coughlan08

ya they were up against it alright,
didnt take the lead until the 51st minute and they drove
on from there.
what odds were they,maybe next time will you put up the odds of the selection,thanks

Sir Vival

coughlan08 wrote: »

ya they were up against it alright,
didnt take the lead until the 51st minute and they drove
on from there.
what odds were they,maybe next time will you put up the odds of the selection,thanks

They were 1/6 to beat wexford. I know it doesn't seem like great value but im trying to stay away from handicaps for the first few bets.

BGP

Nice log mate!

I'll be make sure to check in here if I ever feel like making a bet on the ol' GAA. You seem to know what you're talking about and you've got very good analysis for your first bet, which is always good to see.

Good luck mate! I'll be keeping an eye on this thread, and I hope you meet your target my the end of the season.

Sir Vival

Good to see down pull through against offaly. From reading the report on hoganstand i see that they were fortunate enough against a dogged offaly team ( they were down 3 pts at half time :eek: ) . Just as well i was out of the house for the game, dont think i could sat still listening to it. I expected them to win by a few more, probably over-estimated them slightly as well as under-estimating the tullamore factor.

Anyway my bet continues to sunday. Cant see an upset in the cork/wexford game so here's hoping the rossies dont get their tails up in mchale park.

Edit: Forgot to mention tony taylor is back in the middle of the park for sligo, thats a big plus. Top player.

Sir Vival

Sir Vival wrote: »

Connaught football final: Sligo vs. Roscommon @1/4

I believe sligo have enough to beat ros by 4 or 5pts. Sligo have won two biggish games against the kingpins of connaught which i believe will hold them in good stead, meanwhile ros were unconvincing against london and leitrim (in the 1st half). Roscommon's only threat is donie shine who will get them 7 or 8 pts from frees, 45's etc but he doesn't really contribute in normal play.. Apart from frees i cant see roscommon getting alot off the sligo defence. Compare that to sligo who have d.kelly ( surely has an all-star in his back pocket already, magee to kick the frees (if he's playin), brehony and costello who always chip in with 2 or 3 pts a piece. Add to that a mobile midfield, pacy scoring wing backs in davey and cawley and a true leader in O'Hara. I would say that a maximum of 2 ros players would make this sligo team, which itself shows the difference in class between the two teams. Forgot to mention also that sligo's performances aren't a fluke, 2 promotions in 2 years while ros will be playing div 4 next year..

Still a bit gobsmacked writing this... roscommon were really up for the game and well... sligo weren't. I had some doubts about sligo this morning when i got talking to relations from sligo who were all ready for the parties tonight. Also sligo's local radio station were advertising homecoming parties for the team in various night-clubs. I cant help but feel that all this hype got into the sligo players heads. I knew shine would have a good game but never thought he would play that well. I was very very disapointed with mcguire, the sligo full-back, he was just so so loose. Was still hoping that when sligo pulled level they might edge it but you could see that roscommon were going to get chances which they oblidgedly took. In retrospect i should have gone with ros +5 @10/11

Anyways have to forget about this week now. I like the look of a couple of the qualifier games for next week so will top up the bank and do a bit of study after the venues come out tomorrow.

Onwards and upwards.

Bank: €5 Profit: €0 Loss: €25

c montgomery

That sucks man. Sligo just didnt deserve it today.

A 4 game accum is always a tough thing to get up though, sometimes a double on the handicaps gives much better value.

Dublin in the under 21 didnt deserve to win the game by 6 points either, wexford had a shot on goal towards the end which hit off one of their own players to stop it going in, the ref wrongly gave a 65 which wexford dropped in rather than taking their point.

What do ya think about cork vs antrim next week. Im from cork and i think antrim could take us, we just cant score and dont have the forwards. 1-13 yesterday after 90 minutes hurling is very poor to say the least. If antrim get 5 points in the handicap ill be all over it.

Sir Vival

c montgomery wrote: »

That sucks man. Sligo just didnt deserve it today.

A 4 game accum is always a tough thing to get up though, sometimes a double on the handicaps gives much better value.

Dublin in the under 21 didnt deserve to win the game by 6 points either, wexford had a shot on goal towards the end which hit off one of their own players to stop it going in, the ref wrongly gave a 65 which wexford dropped in rather than taking their point.

What do ya think about cork vs antrim next week. Im from cork and i think antrim could take us, we just cant score and dont have the forwards. 1-13 yesterday after 90 minutes hurling is very poor to say the least. If antrim get 5 points in the handicap ill be all over it.

Thanks for the consolation, i've actually been living in roscommon for the past 10 or so years so it's not all bad, will be a bit of a party atmosphere around here for a while. God knows roscommon football needed the win today.

As for cork next week, i think they'll win. In my opinion antrim will find it hard to produce a similar performance to that which knocked out dublin yesterday. Coupled with that i think it's do or die for a lot of the cork players next week and if sean óg is fit i reckon it'll give them the boost they need.

Im liking the look of dublin against louth and obviously cork against limerick but i'll wait til thurs/fri next week to fully decide on my selection as i feel i was a little eager this week. I had a gut feeling that the connaught final would be close today and should have had a closer look at the + handicaps for roscommon, but it's in the past now so no point in talking about it more.

Thanks for the input monty.

c montgomery

Ya its do or die for the hurlers alright but they just cant score. I think they will win but ill be having a close look at the handicap.

In the cork/limerick game ill be having a look at the handicap also. I think cork will win but not by more than 5 points.

A cork double not to beat the handicap perhaps

Sir Vival

Right time to get some of my losses back. Im going for

u-21 hurling championship, ulster semi-final: Antrim (-2) vs. Down @1/2

Antrim have always dominated in the hurling up north and i can see a 7 or 8 pt win for them tonight. It's a home game for antrim which is big advantage. Antrim also have 4 or 5 senior panelists including the senior teams full back cormac donnelly who captains the team tonight. All these lads will be buzzing from the victory over dublin. I also believe the other senior panelists will be bursting a gut tonight in the hope of impressing the senior manager before the weekends qualrter final against cork. Meanwhile down have no great tradition in hurling and have never done anything significant at senior level although they have contested a few ulster u-21 finals in previous years. The down people dont seem to have much faith in the current team and i would expect a poor support to turn up for them which can greatly demoralise a young team. No really recognisable players on the down team except the senior panelist james coyle.

Another interesting point to note is that the down hurling clubs play in the antrim league with only two of these playing div.1. I have to question a county that hasn't enough players, teams, or interest to have their own league.

€20 @ 1/2 return €30
(very good price in my opinion, got from local bookie who hasn't really an idea of hurling especially in the north. Antrim are 1/4 to win on pp)

Probably would have put on more if i had it with me but alas...

Bank: €5 Loss: €25 Profit: €0 In Play: €20

Sir Vival

Sir Vival wrote: »

u-21 hurling championship, ulster semi-final: Antrim (-2) vs. Down @1/2

Great stuff, end result: Antrim 0-19 Down 1-12.

Bank:€35 (includes) Loss: €25 Win: €10 Overall: -€15

Ok so im still -€15 but i'm confident heading into the coming weekend. Will post up my bet(s) tomorrow night of friday... waiting for some of the teams to be announced.

UrbanSea

Sir Vival wrote: »

Right time to get some of my losses back. Im going for

u-21 hurling championship, ulster semi-final: Antrim (-2) vs. Down @1/2

Antrim have always dominated in the hurling up north and i can see a 7 or 8 pt win for them tonight. It's a home game for antrim which is big advantage. Antrim also have 4 or 5 senior panelists including the senior teams full back cormac donnelly who captains the team tonight. All these lads will be buzzing from the victory over dublin. I also believe the other senior panelists will be bursting a gut tonight in the hope of impressing the senior manager before the weekends qualrter final against cork. Meanwhile down have no great tradition in hurling and have never done anything significant at senior level although they have contested a few ulster u-21 finals in previous years. The down people dont seem to have much faith in the current team and i would expect a poor support to turn up for them which can greatly demoralise a young team. No really recognisable players on the down team except the senior panelist james coyle.

Another interesting point to note is that the down hurling clubs play in the antrim league with only two of these playing div.1. I have to question a county that hasn't enough players, teams, or interest to have their own league.

€20 @ 1/2 return €30
(very good price in my opinion, got from local bookie who hasn't really an idea of hurling especially in the north. Antrim are 1/4 to win on pp)

Probably would have put on more if i had it with me but alas...

Bank: €5 Loss: €25 Profit: €0 In Play: €20

Sir vival would you post when the games are on that you're betting on? Just wasn't too sure there myself.

Sir Vival

greetings wrote: »

Sir vival would you post when the games are on that you're betting on? Just wasn't too sure there myself.

**** sorry, still getting used to logging my bets, forgot to put the odds in my very first post...:eek:

Anyways my main selection this week is a treble and is as follows;

(1) Cork(-1) vs. Limerick @1/3

4rth round qualifier: Saturday 24th july at 19:00 at gaelic grounds

Cork have to be reasonably happy with this draw whereas limerick will be raging having drawn munster opposition. Im sure limerick will be really up for this match but cork are a class act with 20+ quality players while limerick were playing div. 4 this year. Cork's full-forward line looks particularly impressive with goulding, sheehan and o'neill. Three strong 6 foot plus players that are well able to take scores from all angles. These are assisted by a strong running half-forward line that win plenty of breaking ball (this will be crucial against limerick who are strong in the middle of park.) Im slightly concerned about cork's midfield but i feel they're strong enough in other areas to work around this problem. They're back-line has plenty of class and experience with canty, miskella and o'leary. Even cork's bench is impressive: kerrigan, murphy, kavanagh to name a few. Looking at limerick i see a spirited team who capable of producing a big performance, however i fear this already came against kerry. Galvin is their leader in the middle and collins seems their main threat up front. If cork snuff out these two players i cant see a comfortable win.

Forgot to mention that limerick havn't beaten cork since 2003 and have lost 4 of their last 5 meetings, I expect there wait for a repeat of 2003 to continue past this weekend.

(2) Kildare vs. Monaghan: Monaghan to qualify @ 6/5

4rth round qualifier: Saturday 24th july at 15:00 at croke park

I think this is a case of kildare being over-hyped and monaghan being written off because of one bad performance against tyrone. I honestly believe that tyrone in that form would have beaten any team in ireland last weekend. So many of monaghan's players can't possibly play as bad as they did last weekend. The two freemans, finlay, macmanus, woods (on his day) are top quality players and will be hurting from last weekend. A loss would be the end of an era for this monaghan team as the managment have indicated that this is their last season and some of the players have a lot of miles on the clock (clerkin, mcquaid, mone etc.) I had the pleasure of having a training session with Martin McElkennon who is monaghan's coach. He is a great motivator and tactician so i dont buy into the arguement that monaghan's players will find it hard to lift it. Forgetting about last week, monaghan have notched up big scores in this year's championship (1-18 against armagh and 0-21 against fermanagh) while kildare have been leaking points (1-22 against louth, 0-15 against antrim who have been in turmoil all year). Kildare are a very good side with doyle, callaghan and o'neill in good form but they've played 5 games in 6 weeks, im hoping this takes it's toll.

Another interesting aspect of this game is that paul grimley (a coach with monaghan) used to be with mcgeeney at kildare for the past two seasons (many said he was the brain of the managment team). Surely he knows mcgeeney's tactics inside out (as he more than likely came up with them ) and therefore will have some plan to counteract them.

Also monaghan have never lost 2 consecutive games under the current management team who have been with them the last 5/6 seasons, here's hoping this stat remains after saturday.

I think it will be a close match, so i've eliminated the possibility of the bet losing with a draw (considering monaghan win extra time..)

(3)Glencar/manorhamilton vs. Allen gaels @1/5

Leitrim senior football championship on saturday 24th july at 19:30 in pairc sean, carrick

Not gonna write to much about this as im kinda tired now but this is a dead cert. Manor are top of the div.1 league in leitrim with a +25 score difference while allen gaels have only won one game all year in same competition and have a score difference of -35. Also in this group are st. marys ( along with manor they're the two best teams in leitrim) so manor will be eager to win this to avoid to qualification difficulties. Manor will win by 7+ pts.

€20 returns €70.40

Might do an accumulator with small stakes, will post it up tomorrow if going ahead with it.

Sir Vival

Damage limitation time. €20 on kildare (-8) @5/6

EDIT: well that turned out to be a great decision.. kildare missed 4 scorable chances after bet was placed and monaghan get a cheap goal a few minutes later.

c montgomery

Sir Vival wrote: »

Damage limitation time. €20 on kildare (-8) @5/6

EDIT: well that turned out to be a great decision.. kildare missed 4 scorable chances after bet was placed and monaghan get a cheap goal a few minutes later.

What about sligo, i fancy them to beat down by a few points.

Sir Vival

c montgomery wrote: »

What about sligo, i fancy them to beat down by a few points.

My heart says sligo but head says down. Just heard there only one team has lost a provincial final and come back to win since the back door system came in(that was dublin a few years ago).

Sir Vival

Right it's go in or go home time for me. Last bet of the season if this doesn't come off.

TREBLE

TODAY AT 12:30PM
(1) All-ireland minor quarter final: Mayo vs. Offaly @4/9

Mayo are unbeaten this year (having disposed of roscommon and galway quiet easily even though both these counties have good underage pedigree) and have a few strong players who were impressive on their team last year including danny kirby and cillian o'connor who seems to score 1-5/1-6 everytime he plays. Mayo also dont seem to give away to many scores which is always a good thing. Meanwhile offaly lost to longford in the leinster final by 6pts, (longford are no great shakes at minor although have done remarkbly well to win leinster beating kildare also on their way, however they were very lucky in a lot of their matchs). The only thing that will beat mayo is complacency and i dont think that will be the case today.

TODAY AT 2:00PM
(2) All-ireland senior quarter final: Kerry vs. Down @3/10

Not gonna write too much here as i just think kerry are a couple of levels ahead of down. Despite down's mauling of sligo, it will be much harder to replicate that against the all-ireland champions. I think it will be close, maybe 3 or 4 pts to kerry. Donaghy and Cooper to wreak havok.

TODAY AT 6:00PM

(3) Leitrim senior championship: St. Marys vs. Allen Gaels @1/4

Kinda gave my reason for this match a bit last week. Allen gaels have only won one match in the league all year and were hammered in the championship last week by glencar-manorhamilton 3-18 to 1-8. St. Marys are on the same level as glencar/manor so i see absolutely no reason why this wont be at least a 6pt win for manor.

€50 RETURNS €117.36

I will update the bank/loss/profit(unlikely:rolleyes:) and stuff later. As i said this is it for me if it doesn't come up so hopefully i will have some money to play with for tomorrows matchs.

c montgomery

Hi vital,

Tomorrow you can get roscommon +9 with pp at 4/5 which is a great price in my opinion.
Im going to take that and put it in a 50 euro double with kildare(i think) to qualify at 5/6.
Im actually not too sure about the kildare game as its a bit of a coin toss but with both provincial winners going out today i think i'll gamble on them.
50 returns 165 but with my luck it wont return anything.

Con1110

Roscommon one is very risky.. Can see Cork uping their performance 2moro like when they played donegal last year in the quarter final

Sir Vival

Sir Vival wrote: »

Right it's go in or go home time for me. Last bet of the season if this doesn't come off.

Definately home time now when kerry and tyrone are beaten in croker on the same day. Has to be said that it was a good days football for the neutral though.

Amount Lost: €115

Doesn't read too well but i've had fun over the past few weeks. Think i've learned a few things also that hopefully i'll remember next season

Might just stick to the club scene as the prices can be very attractive and local knowledge is a huge advantage over the bookie.

On a side note, how can i close down my PP account...? Do i have to contact them? I dont wanted to be tempted into any more bets for a couple of months anways.

See ye all next season.

Sir Vival

c montgomery wrote: »

Hi vital,

Tomorrow you can get roscommon +9 with pp at 4/5 which is a great price in my opinion.
Im going to take that and put it in a 50 euro double with kildare(i think) to qualify at 5/6.
Im actually not too sure about the kildare game as its a bit of a coin toss but with both provincial winners going out today i think i'll gamble on them.
50 returns 165 but with my luck it wont return anything.

Ya that rossies bet looks good, its actually @5/6 now on PP. Shine will get 6 or 7pts from frees/45's/play and one or two players are bound to chip in with 4 or 5 more points. That means cork will have to score in excess of 20/21 pts which i dont think they will do as cork themselves have no one to kick the frees from the left-hand side which could cost them 3/4 pts. However as i said in my previous post, im finished as regards betting on the gaa for this season so i wont be going in on it.

Shine over 5.5 pts @ 8/13 looks very good to me but again it's just a thought.

Best of luck with whatever you go for.

c montgomery

Hi vital,

Sorry to hear about the end of your season. If i was to give you any advice it would be to stay away from accumalitor bets, singles and doubles are all you should do. You need too much to go your way with acccum.
Then again what do i know, i could be finished by tomorrow myself.

Whats that they say, bookies always win:rolleyes: