Budget deficit up from 11.5% to 19.75% of economic output

ei.sdraob

The Economic and Social Research Institute says the cost of providing extra capital to Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide will have to be included in the national accounts, and will push the government deficit from 11.5% to 19.75% of economic output - by far the highest in the developed world.

http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0714/economy.html

did someone say recovery?

all of us have to pay for this directly and indirectly

ejmaztec

There's definitely a recovery, and government policy is paying off, according to Batt O'Keefe:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0714/breaking12.html

Tesco Ireland is to open seven new stores as part of a €113 million investment in the Republic which will create 748 jobs.

Minister for Enterprise Batt O’Keeffe said the investment underpinned the company’s commitment to Ireland and added momentum to the Government’s economic recovery plan.
“The investment shows that this is not a jobless recovery. Our recovery is built on prudent Government fiscal and economic policies, indigenous entrepreneurship and continued investments from the multinational sector,” Mr O’Keeffe said.
The new jobs will generate local economic activity across the regions, as well as driving competition in the retail sector and offering convenience and choice to consumers, he added.

748 out of 450000 - what an achievement:(

noodler

ei.sdraob wrote: »

http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0714/economy.html

did someone say recovery?

all of us have to pay for this directly and indirectly

Been pretty much expected since the eurostat reclassification.

You realise, I am not sure from your psot though, that nothing has actually chnaged in a direct sense from what we owe as the Anglo money goes to the National debt regardless.

The concern is certainly that there will be investors out there who won't recognise that the deficit is a one-off (and should move to @ 10-11% in 2011).

Liam Byrne

ejmaztec wrote: »

There's definitely a recovery, and government policy is paying off, according to Batt O'Keefe:

I just heard that idiot on Today FM's lunchtime news.....

He reckons that people emigrating includes people going for jobs in other countries, some of which might possibly be Irish companies operating there, and so it's not a problem!

Ranks right up there with the "they're emigrating to have fun" that Mary Coughlan came out with when she was supposedly looking after jobs.

There is no word to describe the delusion that this shower have :mad:

maninasia

ejmaztec wrote: »

There's definitely a recovery, and government policy is paying off, according to Batt O'Keefe:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0714/breaking12.html






748 out of 450000 - what an achievement:(

Got to love that smart economy..fruits, vegetables..getting smarter every day.

danbohan

Liam Byrne wrote: »

I just heard that idiot on Today FM's lunchtime news.....

He reckons that people emigrating includes people going for jobs in other countries, some of which might possibly be Irish companies operating there, and so it's not a problem!

Ranks right up there with the "they're emigrating to have fun" that Mary Coughlan came out with when she was supposedly looking after jobs.

There is no word to describe the delusion that this shower have :mad:

There is no word to describe the delusion that this shower have

its not delusion , they are well aware of the facts but they are like all fianna fail politicans in the past denying it . like brian lenighan in 80s, de valera in 50s . the problem is not the politicians the problem is a sheep like people that tolerate them .

Liam Byrne

danbohan wrote: »

There is no word to describe the delusion that this shower have

its not delusion , they are well aware of the facts but they are like all fianna fail politicans in the past denying it . like brian lenighan in 80s, de valera in 50s . the problem is not the politicians the problem is a sheep like people that tolerate them .

I'm not so sure. No-one could possibly be that blatant and lie and ignore facts with that much conviction.....could they ?

In order to not feel a complete fool you'd have to be deluded enough to think you were telling the truth.

Think of those who say they were - I dunno - abducted by aliens. Those who "lie" (knowingly) in order to appear on TV are one thing; but those who are actually completely deluded and "believe" what they are saying are more convincing regardless of what the facts show, and can get away with saying higher-level nonsense as a result.

Riskymove

ei.sdraob wrote: »

all of us have to pay for this directly and indirectly

the spin upside is that if you insist on saying the deficit is 19% instead of 11% this year then hey presto......next year's headline will be:

deficit down from 19% to 11%


to much preening despite nothing really changing

ei.sdraob

Riskymove wrote: »

the spin upside is that if you insist on saying the deficit is 19% instead of 11% this year then hey presto......next year's headline will be:

deficit down from 19% to 11%


to much preening despite nothing really changing

didnt think of it that way, it be interesting if rte news even bother covering this later

hoyanto

noodler wrote: »

You realise that nothing has actually chnaged in a direct sense from what we owe as the Anglo money goes to the National debt regardless.

Do you actually believe the thing you say on here Noodler? You are worried that some investors won't recognize this as a once off deficit booster?

I would offer you a pile of sand to bury your head in but it seems you don't need it. My god delusion is a powerful state of being.

danbohan

Liam Byrne wrote: »

I'm not so sure. No-one could possibly be that blatant and lie and ignore facts with that much conviction.....could they ?

In order to not feel a complete fool you'd have to be deluded enough to think you were telling the truth.

Think of those who say they were - I dunno - abducted by aliens. Those who "lie" (knowingly) in order to appear on TV are one thing; but those who are actually completely deluded and "believe" what they are saying are more convincing regardless of what the facts show, and can get away with saying higher-level nonsense as a result.

thats it , you stumbled on it , fianna fail are aliens , i always thought that de valera was a bit spock like !

hoyanto

danbohan wrote: »

fianna fail are aliens

Can we deport them?

danbohan

hoyanto wrote: »

Can we deport them?

shhhhiitttt no , do you want this type of goverment coming to another planet, they must be extermanited here , we may be a wet, bankrupt island but we can do this service to the universe!

RichardAnd

ejmaztec wrote: »

There's definitely a recovery, and government policy is paying off, according to Batt O'Keefe:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0714/breaking12.html






748 out of 450000 - what an achievement:(

It should also be noted that the majority of those jobs wouldn't have been touched by the Irish 5 years ago. Min wage, stacking shelves, we're above that :rolleyes:

Unfortunately, and I've said this before, the only thing that will create the surplus of jobs we had during the boom will be another boom. But not just any type of boom, it would have to be a labour intensive boom which construction was. That's not going to happen so the harsh reality is that the majority of the unemployed have a choice between drawing the dole long term or emigrating.

Incidentally, you should understand that of those 450k unemployed, only about 300k are real job seekers. The rest are the unemployables we had during the celtic tiger years.

noodler

So I said:

noodler wrote: »

Been pretty much expected since the eurostat reclassification.

You realise, I am not sure from your psot though, that nothing has actually chnaged in a direct sense from what we owe as the Anglo money goes to the National debt regardless.

The concern is certainly that there will be investors out there who won't recognise that the deficit is a one-off (and should move to @ 10-11% in 2011).

And you said:

hoyanto wrote: »

Do you actually believe the thing you say on here Noodler? You are worried that some investors won't recognize this as a once off deficit booster?

I would offer you a pile of sand to bury your head in but it seems you don't need it. My god delusion is a powerful state of being.

Could you try again? I find it difficult to establish the link between your post and mine.

Tipp Man

hoyanto wrote: »

Yes, I am sure the hilarity of you own post is lost on you. That's what make you that very special kind person you are Noodler. But again it's nice to know having the highest deficit as a percentage of economic output in the developed world doesn't change anything for you except your concern that some investors might actually be smart enough to figure out that NAMA is a dog and Anglo will bankrupt the country and people like you will still be posting on Boards.ie about how good a plan this all was.

Think your being a bit hard on Noodler there - not sure what has provoked such a response from you

He is right - nothing has changed - whether we put the bailout money into the deficit calculation or not it's borrowed money so it still has to be paid back and regardless of the bailout money we still have a huge current budget deficit

either way the finances are screwed

the_dark_side

Liam Byrne wrote: »

I'm not so sure. No-one could possibly be that blatant and lie and ignore facts with that much conviction.....could they ?

In order to not feel a complete fool you'd have to be deluded enough to think you were telling the truth.

Think of those who say they were - I dunno - abducted by aliens. Those who "lie" (knowingly) in order to appear on TV are one thing; but those who are actually completely deluded and "believe" what they are saying are more convincing regardless of what the facts show, and can get away with saying higher-level nonsense as a result.

you could do it if you were being paid to... most of this shower have interests in big industry of one kind or another.. I know of several examples

hoyanto

the_dark_side wrote: »

you could do it if you were being paid to... most of this shower have interests in big industry of one kind or another.. I know of several examples

Nail on the head.

How many of those in the halls of the Dail have massive amounts of shares in industry and the banks? No surely they are making these decisions in the best interest of our nation.

hoyanto

Tipp Man wrote: »

He is right - nothing has changed - whether we put the bailout money into the deficit calculation or not it's borrowed money so it still has to be paid back and regardless of the bailout money we still have a huge current budget deficit

either way the finances are screwed

No some people prefer their Government not to lie about the shady deals they engage in trying to keep their own pensions and their mate's wealth bases afloat as they drive the country to near bankruptcy and a definite stagflation cycle that will make Japan feel better about the 90s.

Scarab80

There has been some reaction in the bonds markets to the ESRI announcement, Irish 10 year bonds have increased 0.1% over Portugal today.

I always measure bond yields relative to Portugal as our bonds have pretty much mirrored each others movements for the last few months and any change in one relative to the other is a good way to measure country specific news rather than macroeconomic factors.

In relation to the original announcement i see some long term downside to the treatment and some possible upside. On the downside if we are not recognising Anglo drawdowns in subsequent years, when they are actually financed it allows the government to run the spending deficit to 3% of GDP under the stability and growth pact.

On the upside, if the EU introduce fines or removal of voting rights for breach of the growth pact in the future we will be in a better position to meet the targets and avoid the fines, monetary or diplomatic.

Scofflaw

Yard of handbagging deleted, hoyanto banned for a week for trolling. Others reminded that if you genuinely believe someone is a troll, please use the report post function rather than locking horns - it never works out well.

moderately,
Scofflaw

noodler

Scarab80 wrote: »

There has been some reaction in the bonds markets to the ESRI announcement, Irish 10 year bonds have increased 0.1% over Portugal today.

I always measure bond yields relative to Portugal as our bonds have pretty much mirrored each others movements for the last few months and any change in one relative to the other is a good way to measure country specific news rather than macroeconomic factors.

In relation to the original announcement i see some long term downside to the treatment and some possible upside. On the downside if we are not recognising Anglo drawdowns in subsequent years, when they are actually financed it allows the government to run the spending deficit to 3% of GDP under the stability and growth pact.

On the upside, if the EU introduce fines or removal of voting rights for breach of the growth pact in the future we will be in a better position to meet the targets and avoid the fines, monetary or diplomatic.

I thought the movement in the 10-yield in recent days was more to do with the Portuguse bonds being downgraded on Monday.

Why do you reckon we had to give Anglo €2bn on top of the €8.3bn if the €8.3bn was a promissory not and, therefore, wouldn't actually have been drawn down in full yet.

Scarab80

noodler wrote: »

I thought the movement in the 10-yield in recent days was more to do with the Portuguse bonds being downgraded on Monday.

That actually had very little effect on the bond yields as the news had already been factored in with the S&P downgrade, yesterday was just Moody's catching up. Ireland's yields actually increased by 0.17% but all of the other PIGS increased by between 0.06% and 0.08% so i would attribute the extra 0.1% to the ESRI news.

noodler wrote: »

Why do you reckon we had to give Anglo €2bn on top of the €8.3bn if the €8.3bn was a promissory not and, therefore, wouldn't actually have been drawn down in full yet.

Most likely as collateral for Anglo to use to borrow from the ECB. I suspect it will be drawn down as the loan book shrinks and the loans are repaid instead of rolled over. Another reason might be to maintain capital requirements, i'm not sure if capital requirements have to met during the year or just at the year end though.

noodler

Scarab80 wrote: »

That actually had very little effect on the bond yields as the news had already been factored in with the S&P downgrade, yesterday was just Moody's catching up. Ireland's yields actually increased by 0.17% but all of the other PIGS increased by between 0.06% and 0.08% so i would attribute the extra 0.1% to the ESRI news.

Fair enough, I hadn't really distinguished between the two increases.

Scarab80 wrote: »

Most likely as collateral for Anglo to use to borrow from the ECB. I suspect it will be drawn down as the loan book shrinks and the loans are repaid instead of rolled over. Another reason might be to maintain capital requirements, i'm not sure if capital requirements have to met during the year or just at the year end though.

They have to be met at the end of the year alright, clock is ticking for AIB.

ECB collateral is understandable alright.