Looking to buy, is now the right time?

LEGEND24

hi people,
just wondering what are peoples thoughts on this?? i`ve been sitting and waiting for particular houses to drop in my area in price,and 1 that caught my eye in a new houseing area has dropped to 185k recently,it was 240k 2 years ago. i`m not even sure if i can get that sorta mortgage on my own, but does anyone think that the builders may accept much less?? there is about 40 houses built new here,and only about 10 i`ve seen people living in them. i may be able to get 160k off bank of ireland, do you think that builders would drop that much? also, any advice on other banks to try who may be better ???
any advice or opinions greatly appreciated

quozl

So, you're looking to buy in a ghost estate? Genius!

Try reading some of the other threads, including http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055956105

jetski

Thanks for the excellent reply quozl i can see you put a lot of effort into answering the OP's question.

Without knowing a thing about the house or location or anything really you sarcastially insulted him.

jetski

OP

Can you give us a link to the house on Daft?

ei.sdraob

LEGEND24 wrote: »

i`m not even sure if i can get that sorta mortgage on my own,

its not about what mortgage you can get, but what mortgage you can repay factoring in sharp increases over time

quozl

The OP wants to buy in a newly built estate with only 1/4 occupancy and wants to know if they can get 33% off the prices from 2 years ago.

What more do you need to know?

The OP could read some of the threads on here, including the one I linked in my reply. See, I was being helpful but you were too knee-jerk to notice.

It gets tiring typing the same stuff out to post after post like the OPs, so I linked to a thread covering the arguments against buying now. That is being helpful without wasting too much of my time when it is clear from their post that the OP has not done even basic research.

You however have the patience of a saint, you never seem to get bored of being wrong

LEGEND24

quozl wrote: »

So, you're looking to buy in a ghost estate? Genius!

Try reading some of the other threads, including http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055956105

why do you think thats "genius" wanting to buy in a newly built "ghost" estate that hasnt sold all its houses?? whats wrong with that? i`m curious of your opinion on this quozl ??
thanks for the link tho for other opinions on this kind of thing tho

the house is in drogheda by the way,and my question was just that if i did decide to try for this house, would i be too cheeky to say bid 160k or less of the 185k current asking price?? seeing as that alot of these houses are still vacant and obviously not selling maybe the builder might sell cheaper? should i just make an offer alot cheaper and stand my ground on it,are they likely to come back down the line and accept??
thanks again

Treehouse72

LEGEND24 wrote: »

why do you think thats "genius" wanting to buy in a newly built "ghost" estate that hasnt sold all its houses?? whats wrong with that? i`m curious of your opinion on this quozl ??
thanks for the link tho for other opinions on this kind of thing tho

the house is in drogheda by the way,and my question was just that if i did decide to try for this house, would i be too cheeky to say bid 160k or less of the 185k current asking price?? seeing as that alot of these houses are still vacant and obviously not selling maybe the builder might sell cheaper? should i just make an offer alot cheaper and stand my ground on it,are they likely to come back down the line and accept??
thanks again

Erm, with respect, do you think it's reasonable to get offended about being sarcastically called a "genius" when your screen-name is "LEGEND"?

But more importantly, the poster makes an entirely valid point. 75% of the development is empty - it is a ghost estate - and the builder has been dropping the prices for years, at a time when every indicator from the PTSB housing index to the MyHome report yesterday to international institutions are saying house prices across the whole market will continue to fall, at a time when 500,000 people (and counting) are not working, when a property tax is about to be introduced, when other taxes are rising, when credit is tighter than at any time in decades...

....and you want to give this builder €160,000? 16% of a Million Euro. Maybe 20% of a million by the time you fit the house out. You would be both a genius and a LEGEND if you did not do that.

llerena24

good post mate

LEGEND24

Treehouse72 wrote: »

Erm, with respect, do you think it's reasonable to get offended about being sarcastically called a "genius" when your screen-name is "LEGEND"?

But more importantly, the poster makes an entirely valid point. 75% of the development is empty - it is a ghost estate - and the builder has been dropping the prices for years, at a time when every indicator from the PTSB housing index to the MyHome report yesterday to international institutions are saying house prices across the whole market will continue to fall, at a time when 500,000 people (and counting) are not working, when a property tax is about to be introduced, when other taxes are rising, when credit is tighter than at any time in decades...

....and you want to give this builder €160,000? 16% of a Million Euro. Maybe 20% of a million by the time you fit the house out. You would be both a genius and a LEGEND if you did not do that.

hi treehouse,
thanks for the reply, and no,im not taking offence to that name,just laughin an wondering but your right i spose as regards my name haha cudnt think of anythin else :P
thanks for your reply tho, i read your posts on that link he gave me and you seem to know your stuff as regards markets and things,your the type of replies i hoped to get from this thread as likes of you know alot more about this stuff than i would,so thanks again. what i`m taking from what you`ve said here and other posts i`ve seen is that you totally would not recommend even going near it for another while then,even at 160k ? that as its a ghost estate, the builder will have to drop prices alot more than this as hes not selling at all and they shall drop alot further ?

pburns

LEGEND24 wrote: »

why do you think thats "genius" wanting to buy in a newly built "ghost" estate that hasnt sold all its houses?? whats wrong with that? i`m curious of your opinion on this quozl ??
thanks for the link tho for other opinions on this kind of thing tho

the house is in drogheda by the way,and my question was just that if i did decide to try for this house, would i be too cheeky to say bid 160k or less of the 185k current asking price?? seeing as that alot of these houses are still vacant and obviously not selling maybe the builder might sell cheaper? should i just make an offer alot cheaper and stand my ground on it,are they likely to come back down the line and accept??
thanks again

You seriously need to do some reading. This forum, property pin, even McWilliams. An estate with 25% occupancy sounds like a horrendous investment. Ask yourself - what happens the other 30ish houses long term? They could be knocked (best case scenario perhaps), left to decay and attract anti-social behavior or they could be let over to social housing. Do you really think they're all going to be sold to happy-clappy families and it'll be an Irish Wisteria Lane in 5 years time?

€240k back in '08 sounds low but if that was it's 'boom' price I'd be offering a helluva lot less than 160k. Just as a comparison, this house is in a 'ghost' estate that has a hell of a lot more than 25% occupancy and was stuck to the guide of €300k up to very recently:
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=537445
And it's still not worth it...

Why not look at more mature estates? May not be as glossy and new but likely to be better built, better facilities, better neighbours, better long-term investment...

quozl

Legend, aside from questions about whether the estate has been 100% completed and handed over to the local authorities, and who, if anybody, will end up living in those other properties (ie will they end up derelict or social housing) there is another major one. Those are major questions though.

If 3/4s of the properties aren't even sold yet, and we're in a plummeting market, and you like these houses, what argument can you provide for buying now?

You can't be worried they'll sell out, 3/4s of them are left, and even if only 1 was, it would still imo be a bad idea to buy a property that you know is rapidly dropping in price if you don't have to (and nobody has to, despite the irrational emotive arguments you hear for why they do). Even if 1 was left, there's 300,000+ empties out there, surely some others of them would be suitable for you.

We've got the highest number of unemployed in the states history, lost thousands more jobs last month, have net emigration, raising taxes, credit restrictions, and this one is open to debate, but imo we have a very good chance of defaulting (or 'restructuring') under the the weight of our public debt. I can't see any arguments for house prices plateauing any time soon.

In answer to your question, I'd say it's very likely that the builder would be delighted to accept 160k from you, and I think it would be a major mistake of you to do that. I doubt a bank would give you it nowadays though.

LEGEND24

quozl wrote: »

Legend, aside from questions about whether the estate has been 100% completed and handed over to the local authorities, and who, if anybody, will end up living in those other properties (ie will they end up derelict or social housing) there is another major one. Those are major questions though.

If 3/4s of the properties aren't even sold yet, and we're in a plummeting market, and you like these houses, what argument can you provide for buying now?

You can't be worried they'll sell out, 3/4s of them are left, and even if only 1 was, it would still imo be a bad idea to buy a property that you know is rapidly dropping in price if you don't have to (and nobody has to, despite the irrational emotive arguments you hear for why they do). Even if 1 was left, there's 300,000+ empties out there, surely some others of them would be suitable for you.

We've got the highest number of unemployed in the states history, lost thousands more jobs last month, have net emigration, raising taxes, credit restrictions, and this one is open to debate, but imo we have a very good chance of defaulting (or 'restructuring') under the the weight of our public debt. I can't see any arguments for house prices plateauing any time soon.

In answer to your question, I'd say it's very likely that the builder would be delighted to accept 160k from you, and I think it would be a major mistake of you to do that. I doubt a bank would give you it nowadays though.

i went through area yesterday and its only a small cul de sac with i think 30 houses in it,built alot nicer in my opinion than most for sale in the town at higher price,granted others are in established areas but also in that price bracket have there problems ie anti social etc.. been keeping eye on these for some time. there may be 300,000+ available throughout the country but as i want to buy in town where i`m from,that narrows the market down completely to whats available to me if you understand me,and thats my arguement for looking at them now.

thanks for the reply though as your replies on here as regards economy and prices and what shall happen to unsold houses opening my eyes to maybe hanging on bit longer. although i did speak to a mate whos a bank manager yesterday and he said by all means see what sort of mortgage i can get and offer well below the asking price an see what happens as the market is buyers market right now. but the concerns i have got from here is regards what happens if they dont sell and who is going to be housed in them in future,which i hadnt thought of

pooch90

LEGEND24 wrote: »

hi people,
just wondering what are peoples thoughts on this?? i`ve been sitting and waiting for particular houses to drop in my area in price,and 1 that caught my eye in a new houseing area has dropped to 185k recently,it was 240k 2 years ago. i`m not even sure if i can get that sorta mortgage on my own, but does anyone think that the builders may accept much less?? there is about 40 houses built new here,and only about 10 i`ve seen people living in them. i may be able to get 160k off bank of ireland, do you think that builders would drop that much? also, any advice on other banks to try who may be better ???
any advice or opinions greatly appreciated

Advice - go to the bank and see what you can get first. Then go to the developer and offer him what you feel like paying, allowing for possible interest increases, and no more.
Even if he says no just tell him that's the offer and to come back to you when he's ready to talk. Worst case scenario, the market stabilises and you see houses starting to move again (it'll be slow at first so keep an eye out if your that set on them) and you make a better offer.

It's business though - forget niceties and apoligies and just be blunt. At the end of the day the developer only cares about your money and he either is prepared to accept it or not.

Edit; just be aware that sale agreed and sold are two seperate and unique things. Don't get fooled by sale agreed signs a they're often used to mimic interest in an estate.

quozl

LEGEND24 wrote: »

there may be 300,000+ available throughout the country but as i want to buy in town where i`m from,that narrows the market down completely to whats available to me if you understand me,and thats my arguement for looking at them now.

That's why I said

surely some others of them would be suitable for you.

I have to disagree with your argument. A portion of those 300,000 empties are in Dublin. Look at Sandyford, look at the docklands, look at belmayne. Those are just three giant obvious examples, there's plenty of other empties around Dublin.

Look at http://daftwatch.thepropertypin.com/daftwatch/static/county/sales_c1.png

That's the number of properties for sale on daft in the dublin area. Some of those ads will represent multiple properties, you typically get one ad in a development for a particular type of property, it may represent 1, 5 or 50 units.

There's emigration and rising joblessness, that means less people who CAN buy properties here, ignoring the sentiment fact and that there's also a drop in those who would amongst those who actually can.

So where is the risk of not being able to buy in the medium term future?

Compare that with trying to catch a falling knife in a plummeting property market.

Best of luck with it.