Psychic Octopus

recedite · 25-06-2010 8:54pm #1

This Octopus called Paul has an impressive record of predicting the outcome of soccer matches correctly;
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/europe/10420131.stm

What do people here think about it, can animals have that kind of ability?
The statistics are impressive; 80% success rate is a lot better than random chance.

Riamfada · 25-06-2010 9:02pm

Well firstly I hope Germany kick England out of the World Cup and secondly a pschyic octopus has got to be the stupidest thing I have ever heard .... now psyhic people .... oh wait.

Had that Octopus been around to advise Hitler alot of lives may have been saved.

maccored · 25-06-2010 9:37pm

in the last world cup, work had a world cup pools thing going and one person predicted the winner of every game. He wasnt psychic though - just lucky.

Riamfada · 26-06-2010 10:09am

maccored wrote: »

in the last world cup, work had a world cup pools thing going and one person predicted the winner of every game. He wasnt psychic though - just lucky.

Did you work in an aquarium?

maccored · 26-06-2010 1:56pm

Grimes wrote: »

Did you work in an aquarium?

No. You obviously dont work as a comedian.

Riamfada · 26-06-2010 6:16pm

maccored wrote: »

No. You obviously dont work as a comedian.

No I have a real job .. im a full time paranormal investigator

maccored · 26-06-2010 6:51pm

you forgot 'professional' - it always sounds better with 'professional'.

Riamfada · 26-06-2010 6:52pm

maccored wrote: »

you forgot 'professional' - it always sounds better with 'professional'.

haha thanks

recedite · 28-06-2010 8:41am

Well, I'm off down to the bookies now to collect my winnings

Paul has so far correctly predicted all of Germany's results in South Africa, and whats more he (it) predicted an emphatic victory agaist England, by swimming straight into the jar without any hesitation.
Never underestimate an octopus. :pac:

0verblood · 29-06-2010 12:23pm

Grimes wrote: »

No I have a real job .. im a full time paranormal investigator

I hope you're being sarcastic. Or are you for real?

Riamfada · 29-06-2010 12:49pm

0verblood wrote: »

I hope you're being sarcastic. Or are you for real?

Seriously... Your asking that? Of course I'm being sarcastic. There is no such things as ghosts.

maccored · 29-06-2010 1:24pm

oh yeah - try and cover it up

. we all know you believe in teh ghosties.

Swampy · 08-07-2010 7:22am

The Octopus now has a 100% success rate. Adios Germany.

maccored · 08-07-2010 11:14am

he has a 50/50 chance of guessing correctly each time so the odds arent exactly that weird.

recedite · 08-07-2010 5:39pm

Swampy wrote: »

The Octopus now has a 100% success rate. Adios Germany.

Germany have still to play Uruguay for 3rd place, so one more chance to make money. I have been reinvesting 75% of the winnings since the England game, hitting the jackpot again and again.:) with Argentina and Spain. Pity I missed out on the Australia and Serbia predictions. He now has his own wikipedia page;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_the_Octopus

Makes me curious...seeing as the octopus is known to be very intelligent, capable of learning and using tools etc, could this one be acting as some sort of conduit or intermediary to somebody or something in the spirit world?

maccored · 08-07-2010 5:47pm

the first thing that would honestly spring to mind would be even if ghosts did exist, why should one be able to see the future? Its making a choice between one object and another - nothing remarkable there. If you read that news article, you'll see they only mentioned two instances (up till then) that the octopus was right. They never mentioned how long he's been guessing about anything, but they did mention 2008 - so you can assume he's had a fair few guesses at a fair things over the past two years - but they can only mention two things he got right and the obligitarory statistic percentage.

Or make that three. No odds - its not that spectatular. if he were to guess the correct result that a team might ever play and win or within a sizeable time frame then maybe, but the chances of being right three times in a row in an undetermined time frame isnt any more than chance and to be honest, it irks me sometimes to see how the paranormal community can let itself be suckered into promoting whats basically an internet meme.

recedite · 08-07-2010 7:27pm

maccored wrote: »

but they can only mention two things he got right and the obligitarory statistic percentage.

Or make that three.

No, make that five in a row, or 100% right in this years World Cup. That article I linked to originally is now out of date!

maccored · 08-07-2010 10:31pm

i find that an octopus can choose between two objects interesting - that I admit. Its not a very rare thing - otherwise dolphins would be out of a job - but its also not too rare to get 5 guesses right in a row either (go higher or lower on a deck of cards and you'll easily get past 5). especially when you have a 50/50 chance in the first place. interesting and entertaining? - yes. Paranormal? - no, not really.

maccored · 09-07-2010 11:05am

Im sure Mani the Psychic Parrot isnt too impressed with that damn octopus getting all the limelight either. Again it just shows how this isnt *that* rare.

recedite · 09-07-2010 1:44pm

Yeah right, that birdbrain predicted Uruguay V Spain for the final.:D
It's getting the tip-offs from it's owner the astrologer. It just goes to show what a fraud astrology is.

Peanut · 09-07-2010 4:58pm

The chances of correctly predicting the outcome of 6 matches is 2 to the power of 6 or 1/64.

However, an ardent German supporter who would pick their national side each time would have got 4 matches correct anyway.

If you have accurate information on which side is stronger, and have a tendency to choose that side, then the effective odds become less than 50:50 with each choice (otherwise bookies would go out of business!).

Paul, via his guardians, claims to be an impartial punter. We don't know though, whether there is some way in which he might favour the German selection. If he has some bias towards Germany, then because they're a strong side, this reduces the effective odds with each choice.

Nevertheless, if we accept that a reasonable definition of any clairvoyant ability is one which contributes to an enhancement of luck, rather than a 100% accurate record, then we still can't make a judgement on whether this ability is real or not - there is simply not enough information available.

If we include his previous Euro 2008 predictions with the (current) World cup predictions, his success rate becomes 2^10 or 1 in 1024. This is more impressive, however, again, these are all predictions for Germany. Since we can't tell if there is some non-paranormal tendency to favour Germany, then we can't establish the real odds and have to leave it as an open question.

(Yes I have too much time on my hands! ..back to work)

recedite · 11-07-2010 11:33am

Paul scores again as Germany beat Uruguay yesterday

:)
You lovely octopus, you are making me rich, rich, RICH

The eight legged genius has now predicted Spain to win the final, so there is one last chance to €€€cash in with The Cunning Cephalopod.:pac:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ya85knuDzp8

CorkMan · 11-07-2010 4:17pm

Don't any of ye know that octopuses are colour blind???

They can only differntiate the contrast of the flags, they can't see any colours. And ye do know his owners put 2 pieces of food in 2 containers when he is hungry and the box with the national flag is his prediction? Put a roast turkey into one box and a ten cents bar into the other, I think I know who he will predict.

SkepticOne · 11-07-2010 10:45pm

recedite wrote: »

Paul scores again as Germany beat Uruguay yesterday :)
You lovely octopus, you are making me rich, rich, RICH
The eight legged genius has now predicted Spain to win the final, so there is one last chance to €€€cash in with The Cunning Cephalopod.:pac:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ya85knuDzp8

Thanks. Made a lot of money out of this also.

Sasquatch76 · 12-07-2010 1:24am

Screw all that... I want him as Hodgson's #2 at Liverpool.

recedite · 12-07-2010 9:14am

CorkMan wrote: »

Put a roast turkey into one box and a ten cents bar into the other, I think I know who he will predict.

But they actually put identical mussels in each container.

Well, the magnificent mollusc has struck gold again, 100% correct seven times in a row and I'm off down to the bookies to cash in again. They are getting suspicious of me down there now; I think I have cleaned them out :pac:

How does Paul do it? Look at it this way. It's like a car engine; In order to use it you don't have to know how it works, just that it does work.

SkepticOne · 12-07-2010 11:39am

Clearly, what is happening is that through the mechanism of quantum entanglement a morphic resonance field is set up by the ingenious invertebrate which influences the outcome of the match so that the desired team wins. The outcome is not "predicted" as such; that would be absurd.

stevedublin · 12-07-2010 12:34pm

can someone tell me what Paul the Octopus predicts for next Wednesdays winning lotto numbers please?

maccored · 12-07-2010 12:50pm

SkepticOne wrote: »

Clearly, what is happening is that through the mechanism of quantum entanglement a morphic resonance field is set up by the ingenious invertebrate which influences the outcome of the match so that the desired team wins. The outcome is not "predicted" as such; that would be absurd.

either that or he's a flukey git. The parrot has apparently took a contract out on the octopus. quantum entanglement ftw btw.

recedite · 13-07-2010 8:11am

SkepticOne wrote: »

Clearly, what is happening is that through the mechanism of quantum entanglement a morphic resonance field is set up by the ingenious invertebrate which influences the outcome of the match so that the desired team wins. The outcome is not "predicted" as such; that would be absurd.

Quantum entanglement has indeed been suggested before as a basis for psychic abilities, however Paul could never admit to this as it would leave him open to allegations of match-fixing.

maccored · 15-07-2010 11:24am

aww - Paul Famous OctoPus is looking for friends:

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Paul-the-Octopus/138987006118901

I still thing ye's all fell for some neatly done internet marketing.

Nevyn · 15-07-2010 11:29am

What is really intresting about octopi is how complex thier brains are. They have to do a lot more calculations then we do and get a lot more bio feed back due to the number of limbs and fow flexible they are, alas the only way to know if Paul is different to other octoi is to cut him open and see, I do hope they cut his brain a part to investigate when he's dead.

maccored · 15-07-2010 11:33am

i think its all overblown. As ive said before, at every stage he was only making a choice between two objects.

recedite · 15-07-2010 11:41am

The odds of getting it right by fluke all eight times were 2 to the power of 8, or 256 to 1. Thats a very slim chance. Maybe you refuse to accept empirical evidence?

maccored · 15-07-2010 11:47am

are you factoring in how many times he choose germany and germany won and accounting for that (considering his owners would have a german bias)? It reduces the odds quite a bit I would assume.

maccored · 15-07-2010 11:50am

or maybe its just more logical to think the octopus is psychic? I dont mind what you believe, but i think if this was a psychological experiment I'd love to see the results. Says a lot about how people can be guided to believing something.

maccored · 15-07-2010 11:58am

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_the_Octopus
Potential biases

Etienne Roquain went on to admit that chance was not necessarily the only explanation for Paul's choices. He could have been choosing boxes systematically—if not on the basis of football expertise, then perhaps on his attraction to the countries' flags or the food items offered.[17] The species Octopus vulgaris is almost certainly color blind; neither behavioral studies nor electroretinogram experiments show any discrimination of a color's hue.[19] Nonetheless, individuals can distinguish brightness I][URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed"]citation needed[/URL][/I as well as an object's size, shape, and orientation. Shelagh Malham of Bangor University states that they are drawn to horizontal shapes, and indeed, there are horizontal stripes on the flags he has chosen.I][URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed"]citation needed[/URL][/I The flag of Germany, a bold tricolor consisting of three equal horizontal bands of black, red and gold, was Paul's usual favorite. But the flag of Spain, with its broad yellow stripe, and the flag of Serbia, with its contrast of blue and white, are more vivid stillI][URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed"]citation needed[/URL][/I, possibly explaining why Paul picked those countries over Germany.I][URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed"]citation needed[/URL][/I Fey suggested that Paul was confused by the similarities between the German and Spanish flags; this was on July 6, when Fey expressed hope that Paul's latest pick would be wrong.[20]

Apparently the odds are a much lower 0.59% if we go with the 'paul liked flags with three colours' idea.

recedite · 15-07-2010 12:11pm

The idea that Paul picked the winning football team by the colour or pattern of the flag is absurd. "Paul" is not a girl's name.

Ditto to the idea that the nationality of his catering staff affected his choices.

maccored · 15-07-2010 12:17pm

""Paul" is not a girl's name." - haha.

But yes, his owners could have indeed influenced his decisions. We dont seem to have much documentation to determine how these 'choices' were made, or in what conditions. Or indeed if the owner was jumping up and down behind the germany box with a load of whatever it is octopi eat. You just cant say. The logical answer is he went for the same box for most of the time and then choose similar ones on a few other times. to say he's psychic is just illogical.

CorkMan · 15-07-2010 3:40pm

recedite wrote: »

The odds of getting it right by fluke all eight times were 2 to the power of 8, or 256 to 1. Thats a very slim chance. Maybe you refuse to accept empirical evidence?

Give him two boxes with a sign above: "Will the world end in 2012?"

Give him one picture of the earth as it is, and another of earth exploding, see which he chooses

recedite · 15-07-2010 4:00pm

maccored wrote: »

But yes, his owners could have indeed influenced his decisions. We dont seem to have much documentation to determine how these 'choices' were made, or in what conditions. Or indeed if the owner was jumping up and down behind the germany box with a load of whatever it is octopi eat. You just cant say. The logical answer is he went for the same box for most of the time and then choose similar ones on a few other times. to say he's psychic is just illogical.

You can see it on you-tube. Nobody is jumping up and down. Even if the owner was "steering" the octopus, how does the owner predict the outcome of the World Cup? you must think the owner is really the psychic one.

maccored · 16-07-2010 9:31am

hahaha - jebus. I cant believe you're telling me to watch a youtube video as 'evidence' that the octopus is psychic. hahaha, unbelievable.

CorkMan · 19-07-2010 4:13am

I have a dog that correctly predicted the results of the matches. Everytime he chose Germany, he howled/sung the german national anthem, everytime he choose the opposite team, he howled their national anthem.

Now wheres my damn media coverage. The dog is starving cos all me money was spent on Sky high definition tv.

Bastard George Hook made me lose every penny...