Belgium going to break up?

gurramok

Elections there with a Flemish separatist party expected to do well. From reading articles on Belgium, it appears that the Flemish north is carrying the Wallonia part economically which is causing resentment.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/europe/10303179.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/europe/10227430.stm

If they do split, what happens to the national debt? Split evenly?:)

Any Belgians got any insight to what happening?

rightwingdub

Belgium is politically a very dysfunctional country, I heard that a minimum of 4 parties have to form a coalition government.

Nodin

Nothing dramatic is likely to happen in the short term. They're essentially a federation as it stands (as far as I understand it, which isn't very).

Lockstep

No, the chances of it splitting are extremely small. More devolution of the powers is much more likely.

Most of the NVA's increased support comes from conservatives who are annoyed at the CDV's refusal to be harsher on the Walloons's behaviour, the NVA won't have the majority needed to cause a split as the CDV and Socialists are unlikely to go for this. At all.
(NVA are more likely to go for the SPA as a coalition partner than the VLD)
Predictions are roughly NVA at 24%, CDV (Christian Democrats) at 20%, SPA (Socialists) at 14% and VLD (Liberals) at 12%, with Greens, Vlaams Belaang and so on making up the rest.


NAtioanl Debt is a tricky issue as it has a heavy grounding in "Waffle Iron Politics"; if Flanders gets concessions on something, the Walloons need the same thing. And most important of all is the language issue; Belgium spends vast amounts of money on the language issue as everything needs to be in multiple languages. Flemish would probably insist on more going to the Walloons as they have much higher unemployment and so on, although they are only 40% of the population.

Brussels would be an extremely tough issue as only a minority can speak Dutch, and yet it is located in Flanders.

All in all, I'd say more devolution would occur but am extremely sceptical about the chances of a split.

gurramok

Latest news here http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/europe/10303179.stm. 30% of the vote for NVA which is some surge.

Interesting to watch what happens.

Lockstep

gurramok wrote: »

Latest news here http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/europe/10303179.stm. 30% of the vote for NVA which is some surge.

Interesting to watch what happens.

Keep in mind that's 30% of the Flemish vote, not the total vote.

It's a shame for the CDV, I have a lot of respect for them as a pragmatic party who work well based on their diverse support base (everyone from the old aristocracy to the Catholic workers Union)

French-speaking socialists I have little respect for, they cause a lot of havoc and are very truculent towards the Flemish. They've also been in power too long in Wallonia and have a lot of problems with corruption. The Flemish socialists are much more realistic.

A lot of the Flemish/Walloon problems come down to history. The Walloons were traditionally much richer and French speakers were the dominant group in society, with Flemish peasants coming to work in the Walloon heavy industry (where they were very badly treated) The world wars were different, the national pride meant that Belgian identity was given a massive boost and discredited the Flemish movements (who collaborated in both WWI and WWII), a big sticking point in WWI was the Walloon officers giving orders in French, even though the Flemish troops couldn't understand, leading to many unnecessary deaths.

Nowadays, the problem has a lot to do with the economy. The Wallons have endemic corruption problems and have something like double the unemployment rate than the Flemish, the Flemish are outraged by what they see as their subsiidation of Walloon laziness.

That NVA are so strong is a huge surprise, Belgium has traditionally been heavily pillarised between Catholic, liberal and socialist so a new party coming onto the scene is a new thing.

I could spend all day writing about Belgium so I'll stop now. :pac:

DublinWriter

It's really only the devolved local government that holds Belgium together, on a federal level they don't have the same 'parish-pump' type politics that we have here. It's remarkable for such a small country and we could learn a lot from them.

A friend of mine in Belgium last year told me that a lot of houses and apartments were flying the Belgian flag during the crises last year during the threat at the time of a national split; Belgians are arguably the least nationalistic of all the European states.

During the 50's and 60's the Wallons had the same argument about propping up Flanders, so it's a case of plus ca change, etc.

Lockstep

DublinWriter wrote: »

It's really only the devolved local government that holds Belgium together, on a federal level they don't have the same 'parish-pump' type politics that we have here. It's remarkable for such a small country and we could learn a lot from them.

A friend of mine in Belgium last year told me that a lot of houses and apartments were flying the Belgian flag during the crises last year during the threat at the time of a national split; Belgians are arguably the least nationalistic of all the European states.

During the 50's and 60's the Wallons had the same argument about propping up Flanders, so it's a case of plus ca change, etc.

Yeah, I remember that. It's strange but you mainly see Belgian flags in Brussels. They are fairly rare outside of there.

I live in a Flemish region and there's Flemish lions everywhere, with only a few Belgian flags being flown.
Wallonia is the same, but with the Flemish Rooster being flown, and, bizarrely, murals showing Wallonia joining France.

Main things holding Belgium together; the king, the football team, Brussels and the national debt.

That said, I know very few Flemish who want the country to split, most just want Wallonia to cop on and see devolved welfare as the best way to achieve ths.

gurramok

kickoutthejams wrote: »

Keep in mind that's 30% of the Flemish vote, not the total vote.

Says here that Flemish separatists of various parties have nearly half the Flemish vote.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/14/world/europe/14belgium.html?ref=world

NYT wrote:

In addition to Mr. de Wever’s party, which got nearly 30 percent of the vote, Flanders gave 12.5 percent of its vote to the far-right separatists of Vlaams Belang and about 4 percent to another populist party, meaning that nearly half of the Flemish electorate voted for separatists.

Lockstep

gurramok wrote: »

Says here that Flemish separatists of various parties have nearly half the Flemish vote.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/14/world/europe/14belgium.html?ref=world

None of that's really enough to cause a seperation though. Noone in their right mind goes in with Vlaams Belaang (the mainstream parties erected a 'cordon sanitaire' against it's predecessor, Vlaams Blok) and the chances of the NVA going in with VB is extremely small.

The question arises as to whether the NVA have the backing of enough of their voters to actually cause a secession. THeir gains have come at the expense of the CDV and Liberals mainly, more as exasperation with the Walloons.

The NVA don't have enough of a vote to force anything through and will have to moderate themselves a lot, given that they'll need a coalition.