May Exchequer Figures

Scarab80

Figures for May have been released by the DOF today

http://www.finance.gov.ie/ViewDoc.asp?DocId=-1&CatID=5&m=f

Budget is still generally in line with estimates,

Tax Revenue is 1.2% behind target - 148m shortfall - this is made up of income tax being 5% behind target (219m), VAT 1% ahead of target (52m), Corporation Tax 3% ahead of target (22m), Customs and Excise 1.5% behind (26m), Stamps 14% behind (41m), CGT and CAT 24% ahead (44m)

Spending is 2% ahead of target (364m) - This is due to current spending 0.2% behind target (26m) and capital spending 20% ahead of target (390m)

Capital spending difference is mainly due to timing differences between budget and spend and should be reversed by year end.

Current account deficit is 310m for month compared to 18m last May,
Cumulative current deficit is 7.2bn compared to 6.4bn in 5 months to May 2009.

Capital account deficit is 600m (250m recoverable from NAMA, 100m for EBS and INBS each) for month compared to 3.3bn last May, this is due to 2.6bn transfer to National Pension Reserve last May which included frontloading for 2010.

Cumulative capital deficit is 625m compared to 4.1bn in 5 months to May 2010 due to 3bn transfer to National Pension Reserve last year.

Resulted in exhequer deficit of 906m for May compared to 3.3bn last year and cumulative deficit for the year of 7.9bn compared to 10.6bn last year.

National Debt now stands at 82.8bn.

Overall figures are still pretty close to targets but there has been some noticeable slippage since last month which would seem to correlate with the increases in the live register.

ei.sdraob

Scarab80 wrote: »

Overall figures are still pretty close to targets but there has been some noticeable slippage since last month which would seem to correlate with the increases in the live register.

I remember certain people arguing last month that we turned a corner and all that

they are strangely quiet last few days

silverharp

I came across a particular example this month where a gov agency was told not to make payments until after the month end, the company dealing with the agency was owed a seven figure sum and its the first time payments have ever been held up.
Might be a bit of window dressing going on even to get the result they did.

Uriel.

silverharp wrote: »

I came across a particular example this month where a gov agency was told not to make payments until after the month end, the company dealing with the agency was owed a seven figure sum and its the first time payments have ever been held up.
Might be a bit of window dressing going on even to get the result they did.

I'm very skeptical of this assertion.

Invoices now must be paid within 15days of receipt. Deprtment of finance have for the last number of years come down very hard on departments that have prompt payment interrst bills. In turn departmental finance have come down hard on departmental divisions that have incurred an interest penealty.

Scarab80

ei.sdraob wrote: »

I remember certain people arguing last month that we turned a corner and all that

they are strangely quiet last few days

Don't give up just yet, tax revenues are still 600m higher than they were in March which was the last VAT payment month and current spending is 15m lower.

silverharp

Uriel. wrote: »

I'm very skeptical of this assertion.

Invoices now must be paid within 15days of receipt. Deprtment of finance have for the last number of years come down very hard on departments that have prompt payment interrst bills. In turn departmental finance have come down hard on departmental divisions that have incurred an interest penealty.

its true, I'm not going to mention the agency and the only thing I dont know is whether that particular agency used up its own budget ahead of time or whether their normal funding was delayed, but it appeared that the decision was not an internal one
Like I say it appeared to me to be window dressing as the company got paid on the first or second day after the month end. I'll be able to keep an eye on it to see if it its the new normal.
To be fair commercial companies to it all the time especially at qtr end , I dont approve of the practice as its the little guy that suffers but there you go.
It was pretty common in the past for gov agencies to advance pay at year end to use up their budgets, now we are seeing the reverse, hardly controversial.

Scarab80

silverharp wrote: »

its true, I'm not going to mention the agency and the only thing I dont know is whether that particular agency used up its own budget ahead of time or whether their normal funding was delayed, but it appeared that the decision was not an internal one
Like I say it appeared to me to be window dressing as the company got paid on the first or second day after the month end. I'll be able to keep an eye on it to see if it its the new normal.
To be fair commercial companies to it all the time especially at qtr end , I dont approve of the practice as its the little guy that suffers but there you go.
It was pretty common in the past for gov agencies to advance pay at year end to use up their budgets, now we are seeing the reverse, hardly controversial.

If it was a government agency their figures would not be directly included in the exchequer figures, as you say they had probably gone through their budget for the month and were waiting for the department to issue their next monthly payment.

Godge

It is the income tax figures that are bothering me. They are behind target. While VAT receipts are up as those with cash balances start buying as prices (cars, furniture, electrical goods etc.) have fallen as far as they will go, that spending will not be maintained unless incomes hold up.

noodler

Income tax falling behind is fairly understandable in the context of the Live Register figures yesterday.

Overall the Exchequer figures were fairly stable.

Scarab80

Godge wrote: »

It is the income tax figures that are bothering me. They are behind target. While VAT receipts are up as those with cash balances start buying as prices (cars, furniture, electrical goods etc.) have fallen as far as they will go, that spending will not be maintained unless incomes hold up.

True, however central bank statistics for April (latest available) indicate that we are repaying more than we are drawing down in credit and also that our savings are increasing.

A possible explanation is that the wealthy are now earning less, which would have a mojor effect on income tax, and are investing less - which would not affect vat returns.

Another possible explanation is that the decline fo the euro has led to a reduction in cross border shopping.

Hopefully increased spending will spur increased employment, though spending would have to be of a sustained nature before business start taking on staff again.

Godge

Scarab80 wrote: »

True, however central bank statistics for April (latest available) indicate that we are repaying more than we are drawing down in credit and also that our savings are increasing.

A possible explanation is that the wealthy are now earning less, which would have a mojor effect on income tax, and are investing less - which would not affect vat returns.

Another possible explanation is that the decline fo the euro has led to a reduction in cross border shopping.

Hopefully increased spending will spur increased employment, though spending would have to be of a sustained nature before business start taking on staff again.

Good points, leads to the conclusion that it is too early to say we have turned the corner.