Live Register rises by over 6,000 in May

mathie

http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/live-register-rises-by-over-6000-in-may-460101.html

The Live Register increased by 6,600 people in May, the largest monthly rise since August of last year.

New figures published by the Central Statistics Office today show there were 439,100 people signing on in May - a new record high - compared to 432,500 the previous month.

It means the rate of unemployment has risen to almost 13.7%.

Ulster Bank economist Lynsey Clemenger said the increase was bigger than had been anticipated.

"It is important to point out that this is coming from a situation where the rate remained steady at 13.4% for the four preceding months," she however added.

"Indeed, looking at the first five months of this year the unemployment rate has risen by 0.5%. This compares with a 3% jump in the corresponding period of 2009. So while the situation remains weak and is still deteriorating, the rate of deterioration is clearly easing back."

Employers' group IBEC called the figures "disappointing".


Read more: http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/live-register-rises-by-over-6000-in-may-460101.html#ixzz0pmm1PQju

I wonder does Goodbody still think the recession is over?

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/recession-over-long-live-recovery-says-bullish-goodbody-2179647.html

I think this is the biggest monthly jump in almost a year.
Anyone any thoughts?

ednwireland

the definition of recession is all to with gdp growth figures, unfortunately people dont matter

Banned Account

And it's going to get much worse - wait for the protracted inflation and the subsequent interest rate ratcheting.

SkepticOne

ednwireland wrote: »

the definition of recession is all to with gdp growth figures, unfortunately people dont matter

Not every definition. Some measures of recession involve unemployment and other indicators. I think in Ireland given our funny GDP figures we need to adopt a broader definition of recession than one based purely on GDP.

Nidot

SkepticOne wrote: »

Not every definition. Some measures of recession involve unemployment and other indicators. I think in Ireland given our funny GDP figures we need to adopt a broader definition of recession than one based purely on GDP.

But this is the recognised measure of growth and recession which is used around the world.

It considered to give the most general guide to an economy by measuring the growth/protraction of the economy in two consecutive quarters.

For us to exit recession we will need economic growth which in turn leads to job creation.

ClayDavis

Don't employment figures usually trail other indicators by 6 months or so? Sorry if I'm mistaken.

Jaysoose

But does anybody actually believe any of the parties claiming the recession is over? Cowen/ lenihan/ accountants and all the "economists" have proven time and again that they are incapable of doing basic maths when it comes to the real financial situation we are in. The only time any of the parties involved get their sums right is when they are calculating their wages/charges/expenses...

I have said it before and i will say it again..we are screwed people its as plain as the nose on your face.

Goverment needed to implement deep and wide ranging cuts plus tax increases 18 months ago...we are possibly past the point of no return due to the people in charge ignoring the real issues.

Nidot

But technically they may be right in claiming we are out of recession - I don't think anyone has actually said we're out of recession yet by the way, maybe post a link if someone has said we are.

Like I said, technically we may of exited recession but in reality it does not feel any way economically different.

It's pedantics really when talking about GDP. As the real measure of an economy is the living standards of the people within that economy, and we are still very succesful there.

zootroid

Even when the recession ends, Ireland will still be in a terrible position. Years of poor policy decisions in the run up to the financial crisis are now bearing fruit - high unemployment that will remain for years, emigration, high national debt due to a huge budget deficit and bank bailout, and very little to show for the "good years" in terms of infrastructure and public services.

Ireland has been ruined for a generation, and the most worrying thing is that there is very little happening to instill confidence that things will change.

Nidot

zootroid wrote: »

Even when the recession ends, Ireland will still be in a terrible position. Years of poor policy decisions in the run up to the financial crisis are now bearing fruit - high unemployment that will remain for years, emigration, high national debt due to a huge budget deficit and bank bailout, and very little to show for the "good years" in terms of infrastructure and public services.

Ireland has been ruined for a generation, and the most worrying thing is that there is very little happening to instill confidence that things will change.

It's gona be a long ride

Jaysoose

Nidot wrote: »

But technically they may be right in claiming we are out of recession - I don't think anyone has actually said we're out of recession yet by the way, maybe post a link if someone has said we are.

Like I said, technically we may of exited recession but in reality it does not feel any way economically different.

It's pedantics really when talking about GDP. As the real measure of an economy is the living standards of the people within that economy, and we are still very succesful there.

Brian cowen... we have turned the corner...ad nauseum.

The people involved in calculating the numbers at best incapable and at worst are fudging the figures to give an impression that they have the slightest notion what they are doing.

Businesses closing at a rate of knots every day, peoples mortgages defaulting, banks manipulating the real figures by not including people on payment holidays etc etc. Unemployment rising again, public service wage bill not being dealt with, td's expenses being paid for people commuting from holiday homes and apparently more billions to go into Anglo.... the list is endless and untill these issues are addressed and dealt with there is no possible way anybody could claim we are out of recession. Its simple really its easy to carry on for a finite period of time with all these issues but there will come a day when reality will have to be faced and i honestly think its coming soon, how long can ireland continue to borrow billions?

SeaFields

Also must remember that the end of last month/ start of this month sees 1000's finish third level with little or no prospects. That should see the Live Register for June swell considerably.

murphaph

Cannot for the life of me see how the PS can be left alone in the next 3 budgets. The money simply isn't there to pay them. There will have to be further paycuts or redundancies or both. Social welfare the same.

Nidot

Em, people need to realise that the term recession means two periods of negative growth of GDP, see:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession

http://www.askoxford.com/concise_oed/orexxcession?view=uk

So please undersatnd this first before attacking people who claim that the recession is over, although I don't actually believe anyone has said anything about the recession actually ending.

What people are complaining about here is the general state of the economy, this is not in reference to GDP or any measure of recession state.

If you would like to discuss the poor state of the economy then go ahead, but do not state that coming out of recession is the same as a thriving economy, because they are not the same.

Just had to clarify this issue.

danbohan

murphaph wrote: »

Cannot for the life of me see how the PS can be left alone in the next 3 budgets. The money simply isn't there to pay them. There will have to be further paycuts or redundancies or both. Social welfare the same.

in an ideal world yes , unfortunately we live in Ireland where we have at least 5 dysfunctional politicial parties none of whom have the backbone to do what needs to be done , maybe if we default the emu/imf will do their job for them

Nidot

danbohan wrote: »

in an ideal world yes , unfortunately we live in Ireland where we have at least 5 dysfunctional politicial parties none of whom have the backbone to do what needs to be done , maybe if we default the emu/imf will do their job for them

Can't see the paybill being reduced in any meaningful way really.

This is Ireland remember where we'll have to instigate several more reports before any action is taken, at which point the resultant action will be so watered down it will be like pissing into the sea.

No politician/political party is going to sign their own death wish and actually tackle these two elephants in the room, rather we will continue to make huge issues about milage claims from politicians, because we all know in the big scheme of things this really matters.

Disgusted

gurramok

Nidot wrote: »

Em, people need to realise that the term recession means two periods of negative growth of GDP, see:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession

http://www.askoxford.com/concise_oed/orexxcession?view=uk

So please undersatnd this first before attacking people who claim that the recession is over, although I don't actually believe anyone has said anything about the recession actually ending.

What people are complaining about here is the general state of the economy, this is not in reference to GDP or any measure of recession state.

If you would like to discuss the poor state of the economy then go ahead, but do not state that coming out of recession is the same as a thriving economy, because they are not the same.

Just had to clarify this issue.

And to clarify, Irelands GDP is heavily distorted by MNC's operating here unlike other countries. GNP is a better measure of what's happening on the ground.
http://www.rte.ie/business/economyataglance/gdp.html

RichardAnd

May and June typically see a rise in unemployment with graduates leaving college and term contracts for schools ending.

However, this time last year, the ERSI were predicting 17% unemployment by now. Granted, it probably is at 17% if the figures aren't fiddled with but that was 17% by the same logic that produced the 13.7% rate we see now.

I think, and someone can correct me on this, that redundancies are down and the problems now is not so much people loosing their job but rather people being unable to find them. So every year as people graduate and leave school to enter a "jobless" economy, we will see the unemployment rise.

I think we have reached the end of the recession in that the fire has just about burned out but now we are faced with the charred skeleton of our home. The recession can be over but Ireland is facing one long haul through the s**t.

The only thing what will realistically create hundreds of thousands of jobs would be another boom. I think we could see small scale job creation in the next year or so but I'm of the opinion that for most of the unemployed, the only option is emigration.

zootroid

RichardAnd wrote: »

May and June typically see a rise in unemployment with graduates leaving college and term contracts for schools ending.

However, this time last year, the ERSI were predicting 17% unemployment by now. Granted, it probably is at 17% if the figures aren't fiddled with but that was 17% by the same logic that produced the 13.7% rate we see now.

I think, and someone can correct me on this, that redundancies are down and the problems now is not so much people loosing their job but rather people being unable to find them. So every year as people graduate and leave school to enter a "jobless" economy, we will see the unemployment rise.

I think we have reached the end of the recession in that the fire has just about burned out but now we are faced with the charred skeleton of our home. The recession can be over but Ireland is facing one long haul through the s**t.

The only thing what will realistically create hundreds of thousands of jobs would be another boom. I think we could see small scale job creation in the next year or so but I'm of the opinion that for most of the unemployed, the only option is emigration.

That is the real sad truth. And normally in a recession, when investment has dried up, you look to the government to invest in capital projects to kick start the economy. We haven't been able to do this as we never built up any surpluses during the "good" years, and we cannot borrow to do this as we are already borrowing too much just to keep the country running, and then there is the bank bailout. All of this is due to the decisions made by the government over the past 10 years. Had we made good decisions over that period of time, we would have been in excellent shape to deal with the global financial crisis.

Nidot

zootroid wrote: »

That is the real sad truth. And normally in a recession, when investment has dried up, you look to the government to invest in capital projects to kick start the economy. We haven't been able to do this as we never built up any surpluses during the "good" years, and we cannot borrow to do this as we are already borrowing too much just to keep the country running, and then there is the bank bailout. All of this is due to the decisions made by the government over the past 10 years. Had we made good decisions over that period of time, we would have been in excellent shape to deal with the global financial crisis.

So to take revenge on the government let's all vote for the opposition, ah simple solution right.

Em well not really, I do believe we need to vote Fianna Fail out of power, they have been the most incompetent government this country has ever had, FFS they poured petrol on the fire that was a housing boom, absolutely rediculous.

But I digress, the only way to sort this country out is to vote people into power who are actually capable of doing things. DO NOT VOTE FOR THE LOCAL. Don't just vote for the lad from down the road, just because he said he'd fix those potholes you were on about, vote for the person you believe would be best able to complete the task of governing this country for the benefit of the majority.

Next time a politician comes to the door ask him/her how they feel about the employment prospects of the country and how they will increase meaningful employment for thousands out there and create a sustainable economy. And if they give you a speil about thow the party will enact change, ask them what input they had into the parties policies, and if they can't answer these questions satisfactorily then tell them to please pull out of the race for election and give somebody who isn't bereft of ideas and drive a chance to succeed in their place.

danbohan

Nidot wrote: »

So to take revenge on the government let's all vote for the opposition, ah simple solution right.

Em well not really, I do believe we need to vote Fianna Fail out of power, they have been the most incompetent government this country has ever had, FFS they poured petrol on the fire that was a housing boom, absolutely rediculous.

But I digress, the only way to sort this country out is to vote people into power who are actually capable of doing things. DO NOT VOTE FOR THE LOCAL. Don't just vote for the lad from down the road, just because he said he'd fix those potholes you were on about, vote for the person you believe would be best able to complete the task of governing this country for the benefit of the majority.

Next time a politician comes to the door ask him/her how they feel about the employment prospects of the country and how they will increase meaningful employment for thousands out there and create a sustainable economy. And if they give you a speil about thow the party will enact change, ask them what input they had into the parties policies, and if they can't answer these questions satisfactorily then tell them to please pull out of the race for election and give somebody who isn't bereft of ideas and drive a chance to succeed in their place.

all very sensible stuff , but will irish electorate do that, not likely. personally i think only hope for this country is a fine gael with fianna fail coalition , because if we let the lunatic fringe that is labour / sinn fein etc into government now we might as well vote for imf

Nidot

danbohan wrote: »

all very sensible stuff , but will irish electorate do that, not likely. personally i think only hope for this country is a fine gael with fianna fail coalition , because if we let the lunatic fringe that is labour / sinn fein etc into government now we might as well vote for imf

I can but dream of an informed and unbiased electorate.

It doesn't stand a snowballs chance in hell of happening but what annoys me most is then people complain about the quality of politician whom we elect. That's the most annoying thing, they wouldn't be in power if you didn't elect them you muppets. AARRGGHH It's just so infuriating.

I don't know about that coalition, like in theory it could work as both parties are right of centre in the majority of their policies, but on a practical level I can't see it working because of the party politics which would be played with every decision made by the government.

As far as the other parties are concerned, I don't believe we have any strong choice.

For instance I once believed that the greens were the new left, sensible with a social concious to booth, I felt this when we saw Trevor Seargent resign in the wake of the last election, standing for pronciple etc, but since entering government they have moved more and more to the centre and have not pursued the green policies I would of hoped for. But I suppose the cavaet of the economic recession has put a stop to alot of polotical action which they had hoped to do. I wait with bated breath for true action from the greens.

As for Labour, I feel they have lost touch with their base completely, and have lost all respect which I once would of had for this socialist party of the moderate. Their decision to defend the pay and conditions of the middle class civil servants has disgusted me. I'm not trying to attack civil servants here, what I am trying to do is point out that labour are meant to gain equality for all. By defending these conditions they have meant prolonging the suffering for the masses.

As for Sinn Fein, they are nothing more than socialist wana-be's with a good dose of nationalism thrown in for good measure. No right minded individual could ever vote for Sinn Fein. They have yet to come out with any policy which would be both practical and not heavily biased in order to win them votes. Complete douche's in my opinion.

And outside this we have no other political party. I myself was dissapointed to see the dissolution of the PD's. The PD's while not representing the less well off in society atleast stood for something. They were in favour of pursuing a low taxation, less social net state. Although I am personally opposed to some of the ideas which they stood for, I do believe that by narrowing the political spectrum further we have endangered this state into becoming a media driven politico mad house of cards.

Only time will tell which party can retain the future trust of the proletariat, but this one thing is for sure, IT IS NOT THE GOVERNMENT WHICH WILL GET US OUT OF THIS MESS, IT IS THE PEOPLE OF IRELAND WHO WILL EXTRACT THEMSELVES FROM THIS SITUATION.

OMD

Nidot wrote: »

I can but dream of an informed and unbiased electorate.

Nidot wrote: »

I myself was dissapointed to see the dissolution of the PD's. The PD's while not representing the less well off in society atleast stood for something. They were in favour of pursuing a low taxation, less social net state. Although I am personally opposed to some of the ideas which they stood for, I do believe that by narrowing the political spectrum further we have endangered this state into becoming a media driven politico mad house of cards.
.

Or maybe they are gone because the electorate is a lot more informed and unbiased than you give them credit for

rightwingdub

danbohan wrote: »

all very sensible stuff , but will irish electorate do that, not likely. personally i think only hope for this country is a fine gael with fianna fail coalition , because if we let the lunatic fringe that is labour / sinn fein etc into government now we might as well vote for imf

I would support a FF-FG coalition but the proposal that you have just mentioned would be far too intelliegent for both parties, it also means thinking rationally something which most of our politicians are incapable of doing.

RichardAnd

I don't hold to the belief that Ireland is an idiot nation in all regards. There are people I know who are fantastic musicians, or brilliant computer programmers but who are absolutely clueless about politics and economics. These people do, however, go out and vote but when they do, their decision is often based simply on a gut feeling they have at that time.

In the next election, thousands of people will not vote FF simply because FF are FF. The problem with this is that such people can be easily persuaded to vote for labour or SF or ever one of the quack parties and before you know it, we have socialist loose screws loose in government. Quite simply, if someone is so uninformed, they should not be voting.

But this, of course, is the greatest problem with democratic rule. If you look at history, the greatest rulers are mostly monarchs because they had the power to do what they wished without wading through red tape. The flip side is that the worst rulers in history have also been monarchs.

I'm not saying Ireland needs a king but what we do need is a ruling party that is not trying to win votes by solving local issues for X amount of people. We will nto get this with democracy as it stands now.

SkepticOne

There's no problem with the people of Ireland, or democracy for that matter. The problem is that the electoral system favours local fixers over legislators and those interested in national policy. The political culture is now such that for many people the primary role of TDs really is moving bus stops, fixing potholes etc.

The people with talent are there in Ireland but who wants to be a TD if a large part of the job involves attending funerals forwarding on requests for passports and that success in these tasks is what gets you elected.

This can be fixed: all we have to do is look at how it is done in other countries where they do not have these problems. We are not sufficiently in the **** for this to happen yet, but we are getting there.

SkepticOne

RichardAnd wrote: »

I'm not saying Ireland needs a king but what we do need is a ruling party that is not trying to win votes by solving local issues for X amount of people. We will nto get this with democracy as it stands now.

I could imagine this being a sort of uber-Fianna Fail. Unencumbered with the need to be re-elected they could concentrate on helping themselves and their friends to whatever the country has to offer.

rightwingdub

I wonder how many people in the next election will vote for their local FF TD simply they do "great work locally" even though they are fuming about the banks, nama and other issues. I really think there are an awful lot of idiots in this country.

who_ru

why do people believe that the Govt has to do everything - create every job, build every road & school, treat all sick people - this is the sort of mentality did not build america or most other large economies. we have very little entrepreneurial spirit in this country.

But if i could accuse the Govt of one thing it would be the following - by slavishly devoting scarce resources into deliquient banks they have further diminished the entrepreneurial spirit and have almost extinguished hope for so many of any future let alone a bright one here.

Brussels Sprout

I think that one of the opposition parties needs a dramatic overhaul before either of them can become electable on their own merits. As a minimum they need new, young, strong leaders who can breath some life back into their party. Right now it just seems that they'll get elected purely because they aren't FF.

RichardAnd

RichardAnd wrote: »

I think, and someone can correct me on this, that redundancies are down and the problems now is not so much people loosing their job but rather people being unable to find them.

oops

http://www.insolvencyjournal.ie/news/10-05-04/Insolvencies_up_by_27_And_Over_Four_Companies_Going_Bust_Per_Day.aspx

the number of receivership appointments so far this year has already surpassed the total for 2008.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0405/breaking22.html

There was a 34 per cent increase in the number of companies placed in liquidation, receivership or examinership in the first three months of the year when compared with the same period last year.

Figures compiled by the FGS accounting and consultancy firm show 469 companies were placed in liquidation, receivership or examinership in the period compared to 351 in the same period in 2009.

In reality this all means jobs are being lost at an increasing rate. If the figures do not reflect this then they are wrong because there is no job creation to combat the scale of the losses

ednwireland

ednwireland wrote: »

the definition of recession is all to with gdp growth figures, unfortunately people dont matter

true but as unemployment is rising it can signal a reduction in economic growth. Its when growth returns and unemployment remains stagnant/slow to change that your referring to.

Businesses are failing at a higher rate than last year and unemployment is growing. There is still a contraction occuring.

Amhran Nua

Nidot wrote: »

No politician/political party is going to sign their own death wish and actually tackle these two elephants in the room, rather we will continue to make huge issues about milage claims from politicians, because we all know in the big scheme of things this really matters.

If the problems aren't tackled they will tackle themselves, one way or the other. The longer it gets left the worse it will be however.

As has already been mentioned in this thread, the Irish economy is distorted somewhat by the multinationals that use our tax laws as a clearing house for their profits. On an anecdotal level I'm not seeing much of an improvement in the business situation among SMEs, if anything its getting worse.