The Lucky Number 4 log

mike65

No I haven't gone mad (yet) this is purely a piece of curiosity. Can "backing" the same number horse in each race yeild more wins than any more "considered" system? I'll do this for the next week or two.

I'll post up the win/place/unplaced stats every day with the SP for the win & places.

30 runners 3 wins 5 placed 22 unplaced

Joyously 9/2 place
Music City 9/4 place
Buona Sarah 7/1 place
Kirstys Boy 5/1 place
Jigsaw Man 4/9 place
Michigan Assass 11/1 win
Amys Song 11/2 win
Cabernet Sauvig 2/1 win

mike65

37 runners 4 wins 7 placed 26 unplaced

Master Sebastian 15/2 place
Billy Merriott 13/2 place
Classic Punch 40/1 place
Island Legend 7/1 place
Danzoe 13/2 place
Fuzzy Cat 5/2 place
Gracies Gift 4/1 place
Tajneed 11/2 win
Bankstair 2/1 win
Tilapia 50/1 win :eek:
Force Of Habit 7/2 win


If betting 1 euro to win the results are as follows

Day 1 loss 8.5 euro
Day 2 profit 27 euro

_MadRa_

Finally.... A System that Works

ForzaKid

You seriously have too much time on your hands Mike 65:P:D:pac:..

Verance

50/1 winner today, I'm gonna follow tomorrow, just for ****s and giggles!

mike65

ForzaKid wrote: »

You seriously have too much time on your hands Mike 65:P:D:pac:..

This is true but the thread only takes 10 mins a day to update

40 runners 2 wins 3 placed 35 unplaced

Finisk Rose 20/1 place
Diamond Charlie 6/1 place
Hippolytus 17/2 place
Imperial Delight 9/2 win
Players Please 11/4 win

Poor day today!

thesandeman

Often thought about doing that for the dogs on a quiet day but never have. Remember watching one day and I think 8 trap 4s came in in a row.

mike65

Results for Friday

53 runners 6 wins 11 placed 36 unplaced

Music Festival 25/1 placed
Harriers Call 20/1 placed
Flowing Cape 8/1 placed
Robens Rock 11/8 placed
Silken Thoughts 16/1 placed
King Columbo 9/1 placed
El Libertador 7/1 placed
Mnarani 6/1 placed
Speed Dating 10/3 placed
Eviction 17/2 placed
Albero Di Giuda 12/1 placed
Tamtara 11/4 win
Arjemis 16/1 win
Desert Kiss 9/2 win
Fame And Glory 5/6 win
Neebras 1/2 win
King High 11/4 win

L'prof

mike65 wrote: »

Results for Friday

53 runners 6 wins 11 placed -36pts

Music Festival 25/1 placed +2pts
Harriers Call 20/1 placed +1.5pts
Flowing Cape 8/1 placed +0.3pts
Robens Rock 11/8 placed -1pt
Silken Thoughts 16/1 placed +1.1pts
King Columbo 9/1 placed +0.4pts
El Libertador 7/1 placed +0.2pts
Mnarani 6/1 placed +0.1pts
Speed Dating 10/3 placed -1pt
Eviction 17/2 placed +0.35pts
Albero Di Giuda 12/1 placed +0.7pts
Tamtara 11/4 win +2.75pts
Arjemis 16/1 win +9.1pts
Desert Kiss 9/2 win +4.5pts
Fame And Glory 5/6 win +0.83pts
Neebras 1/2 win +0.5pts
King High 11/4 win +2.75

-10.92pts for the day.

These are estimate only, I calculated them all at 1/5 odds for a place and put a full point on the win if a place returned less than your stake and 0.5pts ew otherwise.

EDIT: I didn't realise you were updating gradually, sorry.

mike65

Ya bastard I was just coming back to do the returns! :pac: (cheers!)

L'prof

mike65 wrote: »

Ya bastard I was just coming back to do the returns! :pac: (cheers!)

Sound, just hurry up will ya!!!

mike65

Results for Saturday

52 runners 7 wins 8 placed

Hadron Collider 4/5 placed
Luigina Immacol 6/1 placed
Jerrys Agent 7/1 placed
Verdant 11/4 placed
Pachattack 14/1 placed
Haatheq 6/5 placed
Forest Minx 8/1 placed
Fear Nothing 15/8 placed
Jawaab 5/1 placed win
Lucky Quay 11/4 win
Majestic Mayhem 9/4 win
New Rules 4/6 win
Engulf 5/4 win
Lost In Paris 5/2 win
Campeche Bay 14/1 win
Rocky Wednesday 2/1 win

L'prof, over to you!

mike65

Sunday results.

36 runners 3 wins 6 placed 25 unplaced

Sarobar 10/1 placed
Rondeau 5/1 placed
Mini Max 3/1 placed
Sirjosh 5/1 placed
Festival Dreams 11/2 placed
Kijivu 9/2 placed

Run Along Boy 15/2 win
Blaze Brightly 9/2 win
Silver Story 9/4 win

mike65

Mondays Reults

37 runners 4 wins 10 placed 23 unplaced

Ignatieff 8/1 placed
Tut 14/1 placed
El Batal 5/1 placed
Emerald Ring 10/1 placed
Blitzed 2/1 placed
The Name Is Frank 11/2 placed
Bendare Dundat 14/1 placed
Golden Kite 12/1 placed
Irish Soul 6/1 placed
Eastern Light 5/2 placed

Sonning Rose 1/1 win
Dirar 11/2 win
Gurtacrue 6/1 win
Piazza San Piet R Havlin 6/1 win

L'prof

mike65 wrote: »

L'prof, over to you!

Nice try

mike65

Tuedays results

27 runners 2 win 5 placed 20 unplaced

Bold Policy 9/1 placed
Charlie Cool 7/2 placed
Aleqa 12/1 placed
Tension Point 5/1 placed
With Hindsight 7/2 placed
Danny Zuko 7/2 win
Putney Bridge 10/11 win

POINTBREAK

Lucky number 4? That's one I hadn't heard of. The old ones are the best.

Top Weight in a One Mile 3yr Old Handicap.

The only horse in the race that was Beaten Fav last time out.

The only Apprentice in a race.

Hern on a Friday was good but he died.

mike65

Wednesdays results

23 runners 3 wins 6 placed 14 unplaced

Alhoni 14/1 placed
Indian Skipper 5/1 placed
Regeneration 5/2 placed
Sierra Alpha 16/1 placed
Flying Silks 11/4 placed
Little Garcon 8/1 placed
Royal Straight 15/8 win
Soraaya 15/8 win
Bonnie Brae 5/1 win

mike65

Thursdays Results

52 runners 5 wins 13 placed 34 unplaced

Dhaafer 12/1 placed
Rare Ruby 9/4 placed
Accidental Outl 7/2 placed
Croisultan 11/1 placed
Divine Call 4/6 placed
Distinctive 6/1 placed
Daggers Bond 7/2 placed
Peqeno Diablo 13/2 placed
Surenaga 14/1 placed
Artic Rose 7/2 placed
Synthe Davis 5/1 placed
Kanad 14/1 placed
Falkland Flyer 9/1 placed
Ghufa 2/1 win
King Raven 5/2 win
Cold Mountain 14/1 win
Bavarica 10/1 win
Kathleen Frances 13/2 win

POINTBREAK

There seems to be a strike rate of over 10%. If the average price is over 9/1 its a winner.

mike65

I'd say Thursday was just about break even

Friday results

43 runners 8 wins 6 placed 29 unplaced

Knockraha Lad 20/1 placed
Kikos 5/1 placed
Misty Dancer 7/4 placed
Romance Dance 33/1 placed
Danzoe 7/1 placed
Mayson 13/2 placed

Salontyre 5/2 win
Joe Packet 5/1 win
Treble Jig 15/8 win
Hear The Roar 9/1 win
Diamond Duchess 11/2 win
Hotham 18/1 win
Deauville Flyer 6/1 win
Chorizo 9/2 win

mike65

Saturdays results

45 runners 1 wins 3 placed

Ongoodform 9/2 placed
Pyrus Time 11/1 placed
City Ground 8/1 placed
Gatamalata 16/1 placed
Free Art 40/1 placed
Purple Land 7/2 placed
Sugar Baby Love 8/1 placed
Poppanan 9/4 placed
Lauberhorn 7/1 placed
Silence Is Bliss 16/1 placed
Racy 7/4 placed
Soviet Secret 2/1 placed

Micky P 5/2 win
Seasonal Cross 9/1 win

mike65

Sundays Results

33 runners 3 wins 9 placed 21 unplaced

Heaven Forbid 17/2 placed
Steel Free 10/1 placed
Raptor 40/1 placed
Joe Eile 1/1 placed
Total Reality 4/1 placed
Karasiyra 3/1 placed
The Foxs Decree 9/2 placed
Tampa Boy 17/2 placed
Danimix 25/1 placed
Super Say 2/5 win
Formosina 4/11 win
Billie Magern 3/1 win

10% win rate again.

POINTBREAK

12 out of 12 placed? That's astonishing. Am I reading that right?


Ah........ I wasn't reading it right

mike65

Saturdays should read -
45 runners 2 wins 12 placed 32 unplaced

Last day today I think we can see no advantage to just picking a number

Mondays results

26 runners 2 wins 3 placed 21 unplaced

Fleetwoodsands 8/1 placed
Wikaala 5/1 placed
Night Knight 16/1 placed

Ruby Isabel 5/6 win
City Stable 10/3 win

No doubt you know but in handicaps more #1s win than #4s