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FG lose more ground in latest poll

  • 29-05-2010 07:23PM
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,531 ✭✭✭


    http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/poll-ff-and-sf-make-gains-as-labour-lose-ground-459654.html

    Labour have dropped back to 3rd after losing 2 points, but this is just following previous trends so not unexpected.

    FG however are really coming back to the pack as the months roll on. At this rate if the Govt hang on till 2012 FF might just slip back in. When are the blueshirts gonna realise that Enda is holding them back..

    Also interesting to see Sinn Fein gain 4 points.


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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,163 ✭✭✭✭Liam Byrne


    I've been trying to ignore this poll since I heard about it earlier today........between FF passing out Labour and F gaining ground, it might be time to start contemplating where I should emigrate to, because there's obviously a massive subset of society that want something completely different to me. :(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 14,670 ✭✭✭✭Wolfe Tone


    These polls mean nothing at all. I'm telling ya, FF will win the next election.
    Interesting to see SF make a gain, am expecting them to have a major say in the 26 counties over the course of the next decade.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,772 ✭✭✭✭Victor


    Strictly speaking, swings of up to 6% can be ignored as the typical margin of error of these polls is plus/minus 3% with a 95% certainty. So when party A is said to be on 26%, they could actually be on anything, but we are 95% certain it is between 23 and 29%. If party B is on 20%, they could be on anything from 17-23%, that is, they could be on par with party A.

    More pragmatically swings of up to 3% can be ignored, unless there is a trend behind them.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,759 ✭✭✭✭dlofnep


    Nice to see Sinn Féin gain 4 points. Not so nice however to see Fianna Fáil gain, if only a point.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,026 ✭✭✭Lockstep


    I'd say those numbers are roughly what they are on.
    FG on 35% seemed overly high, as did Labour ahead of Fianna Fáil and SF on 6%.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,531 ✭✭✭Taxipete29


    Victor wrote: »
    Strictly speaking, swings of up to 6% can be ignored as the typical margin of error of these polls is plus/minus 3% with a 95% certainty. So when party A is said to be on 26%, they could actually be on anything, but we are 95% certain it is between 23 and 29%. If party B is on 20%, they could be on anything from 17-23%, that is, they could be on par with party A.

    More pragmatically swings of up to 3% can be ignored, unless there is a trend behind them.

    Well when your numbers have been slowly coming down for the last 3 months its time to stop talking about margins of error and start talking about worrying trends.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,174 ✭✭✭Flex


    Liam Byrne wrote: »
    I've been trying to ignore this poll since I heard about it earlier today........between FF passing out Labour and F gaining ground, it might be time to start contemplating where I should emigrate to, because there's obviously a massive subset of society that want something completely different to me. :(

    I would vote for FG in the next general election in the hope they would form a majority government alone (and thats still what Im hoping for), however due to the Labour partys 'policies' (particularly their motion to restore the PS pay cuts and the fact they regard tax raises as cut backs, etc.) I absolutely do not want to have any thing to do with Labour having any place in government. Unfortunately FG are very closely wed to Labour. This is really putting me off voting for FG and Ive emailed my local FG TD (Leo Varadkar) letting him know this.

    At the moment FF are actually taking steps to correct the economys mess (I know they caused it), so if by the next GE the Labour party are still talking non-sense and FG havent taken a strong stand on issues relating to a possible coalition with Labour, then I will vote for FF. Id rather FG govern alone, but I wont help put Labour into government just to get rid of FF since its my opinion theyll make the economy even worse off (effectively cutting my nose off to spite my face). I read it on this forum before and completely agreed with it "Labour are doing more to get Fianna Fáil re-elected than anyone else at the moment".


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 14,670 ✭✭✭✭Wolfe Tone


    ^^^^^
    Well said. FG need to get rid of Kenny AND Labour.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,163 ✭✭✭✭Liam Byrne


    Flex wrote: »
    I absolutely do not want to have any thing to do with Labour having any place in government. Unfortunately FG are very closely wed to Labour. This is really putting me off

    OK, I can understand all that.

    But I'd dispute the claim that FF are taking steps to correct the economy, and the fact that they caused the mess and made it worse by a ridiculous guarantee for Anglo would, to me, be far, far more objectionable than anything Labour could come up with.
    Flex wrote: »
    I wont help put Labour into government just to get rid of FF since its my opinion theyll make the economy even worse off (effectively cutting my nose off to spite my face). I read it on this forum before and completely agreed with it "Labour are doing more to get Fianna Fáil re-elected than anyone else at the moment".

    I don't think it's possible to make it worse, but I would share some of your worries in relation to the unions; that's why I'd hate to see Labour in on their own, despite Gilmore's strong stance on corruption.

    But surely a combination of FG and Labour would be more balanced, and far more acceptable than letting FF anywhere near power again ?

    P.S. I left out an "S" in the second party reference above.....it should have read "between FF passing out Labour and SF gaining ground, it might be time to start contemplating where I should emigrate to"


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,468 ✭✭✭BluntGuy


    Flex wrote: »
    At the moment FF are actually taking steps to correct the economys mess (I know they caused it), so if by the next GE the Labour party are still talking non-sense and FG havent taken a strong stand on issues relating to a possible coalition with Labour, then I will vote for FF.

    FF haven't announced an economic rescue package yet. They've taken on a bunch a bad debts and injected some capital into some banks, now what? The economy won't just fix itself. Where's the targetted investment package? Where's the job creations package? Where is anything?

    They have no ideas. No imagination. And while I hardly think FG and Labour are attractive alternatives, they are alternatives none-the-less. We need to give them a chance.

    Joan Burton actually talks a lot of sense if you listen to her. To write off everything the Labour party says as "nonsense" means that you clearly haven't listened to what they have to say.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    BluntGuy wrote: »
    FF haven't announced an economic rescue package yet. They've taken on a bunch a bad debts and injected some capital into some banks, now what? The economy won't just fix itself. Where's the targetted investment package? Where's the job creations package? Where is anything?

    They have no ideas. No imagination. And while I hardly think FG and Labour are attractive alternatives, they are alternatives none-the-less. We need to give them a chance.

    Joan Burton actually talks a lot of sense if you listen to her. To write off everything the Labour party says as "nonsense" means that you clearly haven't listened to what they have to say.

    I pretty much agree fully with this

    FG have some decent policies and while some may be difficult to implement in practice I cannot think of one single policy FF have to offer


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,336 ✭✭✭Mr.Micro


    Its the start of summer so any gain for FF in this poll is optimism that is short and sweet like our summers. If any voter can seriously put faith in FF after the disaster it created and continues to maintain...then there is little hope for the nation. It is only in the years to come that the true horror of the FF led government's tenure will be felt, national debt and more debt and failing infrastructure. Added to this the woes of the Euro and nobody knows where it is going or will it even survive. At the minute the nation lives from week to week, waiting for other countries to lift us out of it. FF/GP have no plan for the country other than to keep themselves in power and hope that they will get re-elected in 2 years. I seriously hope not.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 410 ✭✭trapsagenius


    Whatever about FF's management of the economy, they should be removed from office after the next GE for the simple reason that by 2012 they will have been in power for too long.15 years of rule is not healthy.

    FG's decline is not surprising-under Kenny they are rudderless.I also thought that that silly game they released was pathetic.Just so, so childish.I still can't believe they went for it.

    Labour have managed to hold on to most of their gains which is a good thing.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,514 ✭✭✭maynooth_rules


    While I agree 100% that the time has probably come for Fine Gael to get rid of Kenny, I dont think it will make much of a difference. So many of those that give their support to FF will not change no matter what they do. It is engrained into them because of family and such, very very depressing and says a lot about us as a nation but thats the way it is. An example of this is to look at some of the comments of the OP in the 'staunch Fianna Fail' thread


  • Subscribers Posts: 16,777 ✭✭✭✭copacetic


    Taxipete29 wrote: »
    Well when your numbers have been slowly coming down for the last 3 months its time to stop talking about margins of error and start talking about worrying trends.

    It's not really, the changes nearly all fall within the margin of error in each poll. i.e the polls haven't changed at all when you allow for the error.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,531 ✭✭✭Taxipete29


    copacetic wrote: »
    It's not really, the changes nearly all fall within the margin of error in each poll. i.e the polls haven't changed at all when you allow for the error.

    Or if your not an eternal optimist they could of fallen even further. Margin of error works both ways


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,080 ✭✭✭hallelujajordan


    I pretty much agree fully with this

    FG have some decent policies and while some may be difficult to implement in practice I cannot think of one single policy FF have to offer

    Such nonsense . . You might not agree with FF policies but don't be so silly as to deny their existence. The attached programme for government sets them out in greater detail . .
    Taxipete29 wrote: »
    Or if your not an eternal optimist they could of fallen even further. Margin of error works both ways

    Indeed it does and based on a 3% margin of error one could report that FF and FG are actually level pegging at 27% . . .

    On a serious note, these small movements are really not that important but I think two things are becoming more and more evident in the polls . .
    1. Under the current leadership Fine Gael have no chance of winning an overall majority at the next election. As time goes on they are moving further away from the possibility when (based on current economic circumstances) they should be going in the other direction.
    2. The electorate are beginning to move away from accepting a FG/LAB coalition. Not surprising since FG/LAB refuse to work together in opposition, the electorate are beginning to realise that they will be equally unable to work together in government


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,163 ✭✭✭✭Liam Byrne


    Such nonsense . . You might not agree with FF policies but don't be so silly as to deny their existence. The attached programme for government sets them out in greater detail . .

    Why is it called "renewed programme for government" ?

    If you "renew" your insurance, it's the same insurance that you got / were promised before.

    They can't even be honest when titling their "Revised (Downwards) Programme for Government" ?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 39,019 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,729 ✭✭✭Pride Fighter


    All 3 main parties within 8%. Good poll for Labour, holding onto its gains. Bad poll for FG. They need a new leader, Kenny is too inept, always tows on eggshells so not to offend people. Varadkar is the man for the job. He is what FG is all about. Right wing, anti-immigration, pro-big business, pro- UK Conservative party, anti- working class. With Varadkar at the helm they would lose even more support, which can only be a good thing for Ireland.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,830 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Well Liam Byrne get ready to pack your bags because in six -nine months i expect FF will be ever closer to FG in poll ratings. We will be hearing how FF acted as the father to the nation with it's tough love. We will hear how they put principle before popularity for the greater good. We'll also be told that had FG been in power along with Labour the recovery would not have happened. FF were the party to lead us into the recession and the party to take us out of it. It will not surprise me at all if in 2012 FF are re-elected. The fact we are now seeing comments to the effect that FF were a disaster but the prospect of Labour in power will force me to vote for the devil i know says it all. Such views are going to become more prevalent from now on.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,163 ✭✭✭✭Liam Byrne


    Well Liam Byrne get ready to pack your bags .

    I haven't given up on Irish people's sense of ethics and fairness yet! And thankfully I did spot the despair in your post, so I know you're not "doing a Bertie" on me!

    And I'm not surprised that donegalfella is considering voting for FF; as a speculator it probably gives him loads of chances to make more money! ;)

    The statement about social welfare this week is welcome, and YEARS overdue.......it should have been done during the short-lived "boom" so that we had some savings. One honest statement in years (see "Anglo will only cost us XXX", "we didn't contribute to the crash", "no one saw it coming", "we've turned a corner", etc......one honest statement and we're expected to be relieved and suddenly start voting for him again ???? :eek: )

    And while it is correct, it is morally reprehensible for a party that has members and TDs claiming ****loads of unnecessary expenses telling people that they shouldn't claim ones that they don't need and that we can't afford them.

    Imagine John O'Donoghue telling that to a constituent!!!!! I'd laugh in the weasel's face if he had to tell me that!

    That is the problem with FF - they have no ethical or moral authority because of what they condone for themselves and their mates.

    Hopefully enough of the country will have the cop-on to get them out, and if not - while I'd miss living here - I will have no interest in living in or supporting a country that repeatedly rewards corruption.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,759 ✭✭✭✭dlofnep


    And Fine Gael TD's have not had unnecessary expenses?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,163 ✭✭✭✭Liam Byrne


    dlofnep wrote: »
    And Fine Gael TD's have not had unnecessary expenses?

    That's not the point.

    Remind me again which party is in government; i.e. which party (a) makes the rules on expenses and (b) made this change to social welfare ?

    FF & Greens have power, at least for the moment.....let them use it for some open, transparent and ethical good for a change!

    FG didn't make this admittedly long-overdue change, and they're not going to have to be the ones to "sell" it to people who are sick to death of hearing about bankers being paid millions and politicians being paid unvouched expenses and "dig outs" (still no sign of that weasel's fate, either).

    So the example that FF have set is (a) do as little as you can get away with (b) claim whatever you can, no matter how dubious (c) take backhanders and nixers whenever you can (d) bail out your mates ahead of everyone else, and (e) deny all responsibility

    And to be honest they're managing to pass on that example to the social welfare generation really, really well......Harry Chapin's "Cat's in the Cradle" springs to mind......


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,759 ✭✭✭✭dlofnep


    Do you believe that FG would not have made Welfare changes?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,885 ✭✭✭PomBear


    The only thing i find interesting about this poll is that people still follow and rely on them. I'm an SF supporter and kinda thing its a bit strange how a party loses 40% of it's supports one month and gains it back in another, even though not doing anything extraordinary.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,531 ✭✭✭Taxipete29



    On a serious note, these small movements are really not that important but I think two things are becoming more and more evident in the polls . .
    1. Under the current leadership Fine Gael have no chance of winning an overall majority at the next election. As time goes on they are moving further away from the possibility when (based on current economic circumstances) they should be going in the other direction.
    2. The electorate are beginning to move away from accepting a FG/LAB coalition. Not surprising since FG/LAB refuse to work together in opposition, the electorate are beginning to realise that they will be equally unable to work together in government

    The last time Labour made a pre-election pact with FG it didnt work for them. They made no gains while FG were the only winners.

    If FG and Labour are working together in opposition then surely all labour members should just join FG and be done with it :rolleyes:

    Labour intend to contest the next election as an individual party. They intend to present the people with an alternative to a FF or FG led Govt. It does not matter if you dont agree with their politics or think they are living in fantasy land, thats whats going to happen.

    If Labour were in favour of swathing cuts in PS wages and in favour of privatising natinal assests that would probably gain them alot of votes but they would no longer represent the beliefs they were founded on. Labour are who they are, asking them to change their philosphy is looking for more of what you already have.

    Dont like Labour?? Dont vote for them. Its simple. But I wish so called intelligent people would stop preaching speculation as fact. You dont know what Labour would of done if they were in Govt, you dont know what FG would of done if they were in Govt. All you have are 3 year old election manifestos which are worth as much as the ones FF and the Greens published.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 39,019 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,700 ✭✭✭irishh_bob


    All 3 main parties within 8%. Good poll for Labour, holding onto its gains. Bad poll for FG. They need a new leader, Kenny is too inept, always tows on eggshells so not to offend people. Varadkar is the man for the job. He is what FG is all about. Right wing, anti-immigration, pro-big business, pro- UK Conservative party, anti- working class. With Varadkar at the helm they would lose even more support, which can only be a good thing for Ireland.

    on the contary , leo varadkar would help fine gael rediscover thier true conservative soul , thier is a sleeping giant of voters out there ( private sector working and unemployed former private sector ) for whoom the state does nothing but demand more , theese people have no voice all to themselves , the public sector have labour all the time and fianna fail most of the time , the wellfare class have all the parties on the left plus most of the media aswell as fianna fail when the times are good , i dont know who it was by but i read an article recently which argued that their was nothing for fine gael in placating the public sector as they would inevitabley end up voting for either labour or fianna fail , under kenny , fine gael have tried to stay onside with everyone and ended up impressing and inspiring no one , core voters insist that they are currently over 30 % in the polls and that this is a huge gain , in reality , such is the unprecedented economic situation the country finds itself in and such is the unprecedented drop in support and disatisfaction with fianna fail , they should be north of 40% and on course for a ( uk ) new labour like victory in 1997 , instead we could be heading for something more like ( uk ) 1992 where the sitting goverment stumbles to a victory despite its unpopularity and because of the failure of the opposition leader to win over the hearts and minds of the electorate

    fine gael must replace kenny , in a time of crisis , thier is no place for a middle of the road centrist moderete , labour have shifted sharply to the left since gilmore took over and saw a surge in support , time for fine gael to do the same and install a proper conservative leader , the country demands it


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,531 ✭✭✭Taxipete29


    This post has been deleted.

    I am not in favour of restoring paycuts. Many Labour members arent. This is why you have still yet to see a Labour TD part of a campaign to restore pay.

    Ruairi Quinn said on RTE he was in favour of the Croke Park Deal. This in no way guarantees restoration of pay.

    One motion at congress, submitted by a branch and probably blindly voted through( as many motions are) does not make it ACTIVE party policy.

    If you can show me a Labour policy document that guarantees PS workers resotration of their pay cuts and continued prosperity despite the country being on its knees I will agree with you, but until then.


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