OECD predicts Ireland will have weak recovery shortly

mathie

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2010/0527/1224271229842.html

THE ORGANISATION for Economic Co-operation and Development says the Irish economy is near a “turning point” but warns in a new forecast that the recovery will be weak.

Saying risks surround the recovery, the Paris-based organisation warns that the full implications of the Government’s bank rescue scheme “for the public finances and finally the taxpayer” remain unclear.

However, it says the Government’s tough approach to restoring the banking sector has the merit of being transparent and may finally restore financial health.

Underlining risks from the Greek debt emergency, the report said there would be severe consequences for Ireland if euro zone members fail to stamp out the sovereign debt crisis in the single currency area.

The serious escalation of the Greek crisis sent Irish bond spreads at the beginning of May to their highest levels since March 2009, it notes. “There is the risk that the euro area countries and institutions do not succeed in addressing the current sovereign debt and bond crisis.

“The materialisation of this downside risk would have dramatic consequences for Ireland in terms of debt sustainability but also in terms of the growth outlook over the forecast horizon.”

I wouldn't agree as ever indicator says we're going the other way but I'd like to see what other people think.
Have they been wrong before?

The_Honeybadger

We've seen many of these forecasts over the past while, it's hard to know what to think, very few called it right before the recession and most likely very few will be right about the recovery, lets hope we do start to recover soon, however it won't seem like a recovery as very few jobs are likely to be created. A return to growth would be a positive thing, no doubt about that, but it would need to be some recovery to put a serious dent in our live register figures, that is a very real measure of how well we are doing.

DidierMc

Are we supposed to believe the OECD? Aren't these the same people saying the fundamentals of the Irish economy were sound 3 years ago?

sceptre

The forum charter requires you to insert your own views as OP mathie, not merely to copy and paste an article from somewhere else. I'll give you a few hours to do so.

/mod

johnnyskeleton

1) at least they are saying that any growth which occurs will be minimal, which is a fair assessment. Since the plan for growing the economy involves attracting foreign firms who engage in "smart economy" activities which most Irish economists don't really understand, the fact that a lot of predictions give a specific figure e.g. 3% growth, are purely arbitrary.

2) why this need for growth at all costs? Our finest economists seem to think that growth = good and everything else is irrelevant. But surely it is more important to have no growth but long lasting stability.

ardmacha

2) why this need for growth at all costs? Our finest economists seem to think that growth = good and everything else is irrelevant. But surely it is more important to have no growth but long lasting stability.

We don't have stability, we have a large number of people unemployed. Removing this unemployment or most of it is almost entirely a good thing. When the economy reaches full employment forcing growth at the expense of a property boom is almost entirely a bad thing.

Liam Byrne

.....the Irish economy is near a “turning point” but warns in a new forecast that the recovery will be weak.

So what about the corner we turned last week ?

Are we heading back the way we came or something ? Or around in circles ?

the Government’s tough approach to restoring the banking sector has the merit of being transparent and may finally restore financial health.

"transparent" ???? No minutes of the meeting where they decided it, and the amount of money that's "required" for Anglo rising every day ??? :eek:

Transparent my arse!

RichardAnd

I don't see the dole figures shrinking by a decent amount any time soon. However, nor so I see them growing much more either. My own belief is that Ireland's economy has contracted and in doing so has shed the fat that was put on by the Celtic Tiger. Perhaps that's not the best choice of words and if someone on the dole reads this, be aware that I mean nothing personal by it.

The new social welfare rules actually could bring dole numbers down as people will no longer be able to refuse jobs, which is of course a good thing. But honestly, we will never get unemployment down to 4% or so again without another boom. The only thing that will bring it down by a decent chop will be emigration.

gurramok

RichardAnd wrote: »

I don't see the dole figures shrinking by a decent amount any time soon. However, nor so I see them growing much more either. My own belief is that Ireland's economy has contracted and in doing so has shed the fat that was put on by the Celtic Tiger. Perhaps that's not the best choice of words and if someone on the dole reads this, be aware that I mean nothing personal by it.

The new social welfare rules actually could bring dole numbers down as people will no longer be able to refuse jobs, which is of course a good thing. But honestly, we will never get unemployment down to 4% or so again without another boom. The only thing that will bring it down by a decent chop will be emigration.

Emigration & Back to Education has already kept the dole numbers 'stable'. Proof is when you look at the CSO employment numbers, no rise there.