PyRo's Longshot Horse Bets

x PyRo

Going to keep this thread separate to my other horse thread.

Starting with a Bank of 100pts and we'll see how it goes from there.

Having some success on the longshots lately but haven't been keeping track of them so I shall now.

I'll update this every night just like my other log and hopefully I'll make some profit from it also. Stakes will vary depending on how much I fancy the horse obviously, And anything from 8/1 upwards is something I'd consider long for me. I'll be looking mainly at prices I consider overpriced and I'll try to find reason to why they should be much less.

Hopefully it'll go to plan and if anyone chooses to follow then hopefully I'll win a few pound for the lot of us. Thanks for reading. Wish me luck!

Bet #1

8:50 Southwell - Wee Ziggy - 2pts e/w @ 10/1 (Boyles)

Ran well last time out, Better than his 5th position suggests. Made a mistake 3 out which put curtains to his challenge. Has ran well here in the past and will like the quick ground, If he jumps well he has a serious chance in my opinion and looks like the value in the race. Down 2lbs and has a good 7lb claimer on board that knows this horse having rode him plenty of times in the past and seems to get a decent tune out of him. His two previous Southwell runs have ended in him coming 4th and 3rd in decent fields when not fancied at all. The 3rd was off this mark also. The jockey has won 3 times from 7 races here which is quite impressive and if the horse is on a going day I think he can nab his first win in this one.

x PyRo

Well backed into 11/2, Ran well again but left it too late. Came 3rd though.

Bank - 102pts (+2pts)

Selections - 1

Wins - 0

Placed - 1

ForzaKid

x PyRo wrote: »

Well backed into 11/2, Ran well again but left it too late. Came 3rd though.

Bank - 102pts (+2pts)

Selections - 1

Wins - 0

Placed - 1

Good Start,They all count at the end of the day!!!

x PyRo

Should of won it apparently, The jockey didn't even try and the horse was still on the bridle until the final 50 yards! One for again I think. Happy with place money though. Had a 50/1 that placed earlier, Pity I didn't start the thread by then though, It would of been impressive. :pac:

skeleton_boy

Best of luck with the thread pyro. Hope you turn some profit

x PyRo

Cheers SB, That's the plan anyways.

x PyRo

3:00 Wolverhampton - Suzie Quw - 2pts e/w

Ran well on first outing for new yard after a break, Shaped as if she needed further after staying on well inside the final furlong, Has now been stepped up to 7f and should come on for that previous run. Is dropped a further two pounds to a career low mark of 73. Has won off 77 this time last year one race after making her reappearance, Could lightening strike twice ?! I think so. Is drawn on the inside which usually isn't the place to be at Wolves but I think if she gets a good break and can get up to the front she has a serious chance, She broke poorly last time and was stuck at the back but still performed admirably. Her two wins have come when she has been at the head of affairs and if the jockey can get a good tune out of her she has to be overpriced imo. Forecasted to be 14/1 which looks a cracking e/w price to me. Will hopefully put up a bold bid.

x PyRo

4:00 Wolverhampton - Yorksters Prince - 1pt e/w

This is an extremely tentative one but I don't think this one's not impossible, It's a class 6 claiming race, Not exactly the highest quality of race. He'll be racing off bottom weight of 8stone 5lbs after Keiren Fox's 5lb claim is taken into account. That could put him right in the shake up imo if he runs to ability. Fox got a good tune out of him before when he was 3rd at Lingfield. Won a similar event at beating Tuscan King who's a decent animal. Forecasted @ 40/1 or so which is way overpriced in my opinion, It's a shot in the dark but stranger things have happened.

x PyRo

2:50 Ayr - Taborcillo - 2pts e/w

Not gone on the favorite here, Stepping up in class to ploy its trade against better animals and it's way under priced imo. Taborcillo is a decent animal and should be less than the forecasted 10/1. David Barron's stable is in flying form and he doesn't often send many to Ayr. The blinkers are reached for tomorrow and will hopefully help this one. Has beaten Dower Glen before who will probably go off second fav due to the Fallon factor. This one should have a good chance if he can find the gap at the right time. Has place claims at least, hopefully.

That's enough for tomorrow. :pac:

Gavin "shels"

x PyRo wrote: »

3:00 Wolverhampton - Suzie Quw - 2pts e/w

Ran well on first outing for new yard after a break, Shaped as if she needed further after staying on well inside the final furlong, Has now been stepped up to 7f and should come on for that previous run. Is dropped a further two pounds to a career low mark of 73. Has won off 77 this time last year one race after making her reappearance, Could lightening strike twice ?! I think so. Is drawn on the inside which usually isn't the place to be at Wolves but I think if she gets a good break and can get up to the front she has a serious chance, She broke poorly last time and was stuck at the back but still performed admirably. Her two wins have come when she has been at the head of affairs and if the jockey can get a good tune out of her she has to be overpriced imo. Forecasted to be 14/1 which looks a cracking e/w price to me. Will hopefully put up a bold bid.

Went with Catherines Call in this race, another horse at 14/1, see the horse race before and looks decent, hopefully one of us gets a winner.;)

x PyRo

Best of luck dude.

Toborcillo comes DH 2nd.

16/1 taken on Suzie Quw

6/1 on the Nap (Edit : Wrong thread!)

25/1 on Yorksters Prince.

x PyRo

I got the wrong longshot!

x PyRo

Bank - 97.75pts (-2.25pts)

Selections - 4

Wins - 0

Placed - 2

Points Staked - 14

Points Returned - 11.75


No luck today, Taborcillo ran a good race but wasn't good enough.

x PyRo

4:05 Newmarket - Carcinetto - 1pt e/w @ 28/1

The poor horse must be half dead with the amount of racing he has done this year! Seems to get turned out every week, This will be his 19th race this year. He has won none of them but alot of his best runs have come on speedy ground and he has been running decently and never far away from the winners. 3lbs lower than last winning mark and if he can come back to then he could run into a place at a nice price. Ran well here last year off a 4lb higher mark too and is drawn ok, Due a win sometime soon!

dennymin

glad to see your doing well mate! have been following your posts for the last while and you've a good rep built up. keep up the good work on both posts.

x PyRo

dennymin wrote: »

glad to see your doing well mate! have been following your posts for the last while and you've a good rep built up. keep up the good work on both posts.

Thanks Denny, I appreciate it. Going through one of those spells the last few days though.

Edit : Todays long shot wasn't much use, Might have another for later all going well.

x PyRo

3:10 Goodwood - Safari Sunup - .5pts e/w @ 28/1

This could be a daft bet but it's worth a shot for me. I'd have my doubts about alot of the runners in this field and at least with this one he usually gives 100% and runs his race. Hasn't won for a year and a half but has placed in 7 of his 9 runs since. Most of his better form is on soft ground which is well factored into the price but he has ok form on quicker ground also. Capable jockey on board and the yard are prone to the odd big priced winner. Came second on last two starts in decent AW races, And goes better on the turf. A small tentative bet for me for a bit of interest.

x PyRo

4:20 Goodwood - Mujood - 2pts e/w @ 7/1 (Bet365)

Course specialist who has won 5 times here and 2 at this distance. Will absolutely thrive on this quick ground, Has won 4 times here on it with 2 seconds from 8 starts here. Ran exceptionally well here last time out around 10 days ago when coming second over a furlong extra but with the ground being quick the step back in trip should be ideal and his record here on GF over 7f is 1-1-2. The yard aren't in the best of form but not doing too badly, Not that it really matters. The only negative is the jockey, He's very poor but has a 5lb claimer and gave a decent ride last time. Hopefully can do a good job tomorrow. I fancy him to push Thebes close who has Frankie on board and the ground + draw will suit him down to the floor, So I'll also have a bit on the RFC just incase.

Considering this one a long shot as it's close enough to the bottom end.

dennymin

****ing jockey did a terrible job, ah well!! can't win them all :rolleyes:

x PyRo

dennymin wrote: »

****ing jockey did a terrible job, ah well!! can't win them all :rolleyes:

Terrible jockey alright, Last time I'll ever back anything he's on. I'd do a better job than him even if the horse had to carry my 13 stone! Terrible stuff from him, Hopefully they put a good jockey on board next time.


Bank - 92.75pts (-7.25pts)

x PyRo

8:35 Bath - Barodine - 2pts @ 13.5 (Betfair)

Hold up performer who is dropping back to this class after two races at higher classes. Carries almost 1 stone less than he did last time out which will help and step up in trip likely to help. Placed off 1lb higher than this a couple of months ago and can hopefully go one better to win this weak affair. Richard Kingscote on board and he rides this distance very well, Has won 23% of his rides over 1m 5f although they were all on the AW. Barodine was previously rated as high as 85 on the turf and runs off 54 here. Any glimpse of old form should see him have a good chance. He and Jordan's Light are the only two in the field to have ever won a race. The ground is a bit of a worry as it's a bit quick but seems overpriced.