Should I have a cut at 3:00?

seanynova

Hi all,

I'm going to Edinburgh this weekend to run my 1st marathon...

Started road running at the start of the attached programme, and seam to have taken to it well enough.

The programme I followed was from Run Republic Sub 3:30, and throughout the programme, and with the aid of race results I started to train using the Run Republic Sub 3:00 plan, with the aim of maybe breaking 3:15 or maybe 3:10.

The training programme on the left is the scheduled plan and on the right is what I have completed.
Training times are above and I did stick to those for the workouts.
I changed to the second column of times somewhere after my 1st half marathon, maybe closer to the 10m race.

So, I feel like I'm in a dilema for my race plan on Sunday, do I have a cut off 3:00, and risk exploding at 20/22 or whatever, or do I take it less risky and try and race for a solid 3:10, which would be IMO a very good marathon time....

It seams like my recent race times are not too far from the sub 3:00 range and maybe I'm a little shy on the long runs, espicially the fast finish LSRs.

So, have been pondering for a while about this and need some advice.

Also, in the tapering period I had an operation on my neck, general anestetic and fasting for a day, really didnt help and seamed to get injured the weekend after that, which kinda ruined my last hard weeks training and early tapering period...

Thanks in advance,

Sean

misty floyd

Some people will do less and make it, some will do more and not make it. Its a hard one.

Be very careful if you feel you would be stretching yourself. I wouldn't go for a target unless I believed hand on heart I could do it. I asked the same questions recently here (for reasurance) but I knew it was a good idea to go for it.....it felt right.

I'm sure some more experienced people will be along to give you advice. Sorry I can't really help. Best of luck with it, looking forward to a race report .

mithril

The most accurate predictor is your half marathon time which is at 1:24:19 is where you need to be at for 3 hours. I did 2:59 with a best half time of 1:25, albeit on a very hilly course. You have a decent amount of long runs done and the program seems pretty standard. I think you should have a shot at it.

Caprica

Seanynova, I think sub-3 is a realistic target for you.

My best marathon is 3:01 of an 87min half. Your training would indicate you are on the right track. Between weeks 7 and 11 you took 5mins of your HM time to a very strong 84mins, you have got in two runs at +22miles, with over 500miles clocked up in total.

My advice would be to go out to half way in around 88.30 to give you some leeway in the 2nd half but it would depend on two things

1 - The course, from visiting Edinburgh I would imagine the course to include some hills so I would factor that in to your race plan.

2 - The weather. This is the one thing that would put me of doing a summer marathon. Last year was a scorcher in Edinburgh, if that is the case this year I would switch to finishing the course as opposed to chasing a time. I find racing in the heat tough.

Best of luck

Burgman

Be careful whose advice you listen to - including mine.

Yes, Edinburgh is hilly but if you look at the course profile on the race website, you will see that it is downhill for the first 3 miles then quite flat. This will mean that you are likely to make up time in the first half, even if you try to hold yourself back.

Weather: The forecast is now showing 19-20 degrees C for Sunday morning in Edinburgh with the risk of some showers. Warmish but not anything like as hot as last year.

Check out various pace time websites. The one on Clonliffe Harriers website is fairly good I think.

My main concerns for you would be (a) the general anaesthetic recently and (b) lowish mileage at peak training. The GA takes a huge amount out of your system and in my experience it takes a long time for the effects to leave your body.

You would be close to 3 hours but I think you should try to settle into a comfortable pace as early as possible; pick it up if you can later on and don't be too stressed if the 3 hours is slipping away - you have to respect the distance.

Good luck and let us know how you get on.

heffsarmy

Edinburgh marathon is a flat course out by the coast road, out and back, there are no hills to worry about, the only factors on the day could be a strong wind blowing in off the sea or hot weather. You'ev have had surgery and injuries in the last 2 weeks, not sure how your feeling now? You half marathon time would suggest that your well capable, but go on how you feel on the day. Take it easy for 18miles then go for it till the end. don't put too much pressure on yourself, its your first marathon enjoy it. I done it last year and it was a scorcher

seanynova

Thanks for the responses!

It seams that some of you share the worries that I have but also are of the ame opinion that its within reach...

The surgery did take it out of me that week and I believe its why I got injured, when I came out of hospital I ran a brisk run which kinda agriviated me post general anestetic, relaxed calf muscle! I took a rest after that but the following Monday I was trying to make up ground and do an 18miler, but with a pase of between 6:50-7:00 for the 1st 14ish I found it hard to complete 16 @ 7:00 pace. which incidently aggrivated my calf injust again.

Since then I have been conservative, lack of tempo paced runs, taking my easy runs, easy, but my last LSR of 13 @ around 7:30ish.

At the moment I feel ok, maybe I feel a bit sluggish(?)
I ahve confidence in my race hydration/nutrition strategy, packing 5/6gels! and 330ml lucozade being supplied at 5 of 9 stations.

I have the same worries about the weather, at the start of the week it was looking like 15-16degs but as the weekend comes closer it could be peaking at the 20ish mark, with up to 15mph winds.
I think the weather will play a big part in this, if its hot I might get a little dehydrated even with 9 fluid stops, I cant really drink full bottles, and but might try carry the half empty bottle for an extra mile and have another swig or 2.

If I do have a shot at it, I think I'll prob only go out in the 1st half for 89ish mins and going from there.
In my previous races, I have always gone out too fast!!!, in the 10m race my 1st mile was 5:50! it was down hill but I even felt the legs getting heavy(lactic acid building up!) and had to pull it back, the same in the 84min half, went out way too fast and I think it cost me, so I'm very concious about that for Sunday incl the downhill 1st few miles, I'll keep it between 6:50-7:00 on the fairly (in)accurate nike+ sportband(it seams to be more accurate the faster i run!)

Again, thats for the advice, I'm not part of a running club so not I dont really have too many athletic minded people to get advice on this.

Woddle

seanynova wrote: »

I'm going to Edinburgh this weekend to run my 1st marathon...

I think this sentence is why I would not be setting any targets, you may very well be capable of sub 3 but it is your first and there are lessons to be learned. If you plan on doing more marathons in the future well then I would be using this one primarily for experience and don't worry about sub 3. Enjoy it.

Krusty_Clown

Woddle makes a very good point. For your first marathon you should probably forget time targets, and instead run to the best of your ability. Maybe this will mean you finish in 3:11, maybe it'll mean you finish 2:58, but to put additional pressure on yourself by trying to get under a specific time banner, could be just one step too far. Why not be conservative and aim for a 1:30 for the first half, and if you find the pace uncomfortable back off. If you find it nice and comfortable, pick up the pace after 15 miles. Pick it up a little more after 20 miles, etc.

One question you need to be able to answer before making your final decision:
Are you prepared to take the risk of blowing up during the race, hitting the wall, and walking to the finish line in a miserable state and a miserable time. Is the sub 3 hour goal important enough to you, that you would take that risk? I don't mean to be negative. It was a question that I asked myself before Berlin in '09, and decided to go for it, missing out by 50 seconds. But was it worth it? Absolutely.

Did you also sign up for Berlin in September? why not make that you're time-bounded goal?

chinguetti

Just seen the weather for Edinburgh on BBC for Sunday, 21 degree with a chance of a light shower or two and sunny and warm.

Similar conditions to my marathon debut in Cork last year - minus the shower. I went all out to break 3.30 and suffered over the last few miles in the heat and didn't enjoy the finish or the crowds and the moment. If i had the marathon back again, i'ld focused on enjoying myself and the finish. I learnt so much from Cork that i'ld wish to practice this Sunday but injury has denied me the chance.

Its best to see how you feel after 18-20 miles and then take it from there. Whatever happens the best of luck on Sunday and please report on how it went as i'm hoping to do it next year.

ultraman1

+1 to the last 3 posts.......ul only have 1 first marathon,enjoy it...

seanynova

Are you prepared to take the risk of blowing up during the race, hitting the wall, and walking to the finish line in a miserable state and a miserable time. Is the sub 3 hour goal important enough to you, that you would take that risk?

Thats what I dont want to happen. Its hard not to to put a time frame on things, so, I guess I'd be along the lines of these:
Sub 3, Unreal!
Sub 3:10, very happy!
Sub 3:15, happy enough, maybe medium...
Above 3:15, not too happy...?

but all that said, I do want to enjoy the marathon.

I think the biggest factor will be the heat, I have been on a few long runs in the last few months and it been hot, once I had to stop at a shop for some lucozade! So I know what it feels like to be running when dehydrated, not good!

If the weather if very hot, I could play it 2 ways, take it handy and see how I go or go out a little faster and expect to slow down when it gets warmer....
I'll prob go for the even splits or close to it....

I'll post a report here(or in the edinburgh marathon thread in events) next week but don't be surprised to read about me crawling home(with my chipped leg in front) and trying to cross the line in anything outside the above times

Thanks for the support and advice!
Cheers

Oisin11178

Ill be going for 3.10 in edinburgh bud and your times are alot faster than mine. You deffo have the times for sub 3 but as the others said many factors will come into play. Your op and injury on the physical side and wind and heat on the weather side. There are no hills of any significance in edinburgh as heff said. Id go to half in 1.30 and take it from there mate. Good luck anyway.

seanynova

Krusty_Clown wrote: »

Did you also sign up for Berlin in September? why not make that you're time-bounded goal?

(Sorry, forgot bout that Q) Afraid I dont have any plans to do another marathon until next year, if even! Travelling for the summer and college in Sept! An early year marathon might work but training takes too much time.

I will run a few shorter distances, get my speed up and maybe see what happens in the future, wouldnt mind getting back into the gym to do some weight training, and find a balance there somehow...

Again, that for the support, I'll see how it goes

seanynova

race report on edinburgh marathon threat in events....but in short...

i died at 24m, collapsed on the water table, head was all ove the place, and fell to the ground under the water stable where i lay for up to 15mins. medics asking me the day and stuff etc to see if i was alive i guess...
watched 3:00tick by and eventually go up to walk, wobble and stutter to the finish in 3:25!

said in the race report i might have sustained if i ran at 6:55 or 7:00pace but im glad i had a craic at sub3, the heat got to me i think, i never compensated for it....and got massivly dehydrated....took 5x330ml lucozade and 5gels at that stage so i shouldnt have been glycogen depleted(in theory?) but the temp rose from mile9 and it caused me to loose the mind and collapse.

thanks for the adivice and encouragment anyway, gald i had a craic at it, ill get it next time .......whenever that will be....
although knowing me, if im in with a shout of sub2:55 ill screw sub3 and go the the sub2:55 or whatever ha...

Oisin11178

Oisin11178 wrote: »

Ill be going for 3.10 in edinburgh bud and your times are alot faster than mine. You deffo have the times for sub 3 but as the others said many factors will come into play. Your op and injury on the physical side and wind and heat on the weather side. There are no hills of any significance in edinburgh as heff said. Id go to half in 1.30 and take it from there mate. Good luck anyway.

it wasnt a day for pbs bud, put it behind you and plan for another one.

Krusty_Clown

Thanks for sharing what sounds like a very tough experience, and congrats on completing your first marathon. It certainly sounds like you're not far off the mark if you could sustain sub-3 pace for 24 miles, on an extremely hot day.

Couple of questions based on your experience, if you don't mind (so others can learn from the experience you had):
1) If you could have a 'do-over', would you run it at a slightly more conservative pace, and try and finish strong?
2) Do you think you could have hit sub-3 without the extremely hot weather?
3) Do you have any regrets about your strategy?

seanynova

your right oisin, it most certainly wasn't a day for pb's, add at least that extra 5-10mins to what you were hoping, and judging by the race reports, thats what happened.

good questions krusty:

1) If you could have a 'do-over', would you run it at a slightly more conservative pace, and try and finish strong?

I guess the answer to that is fairly straight forward, because with what i know now it seams like the only option would be to have taken it a bit handier. as i said earlier, if i ran 5 or even 10sec slower per mile throughout i would have been in a good position to finish sub 3:10 i think. But, i'm glad i went for it, and it did feel fine for the most part so i can take something from that.

2) Do you think you could have hit sub-3 without the extremely hot weather?

Not sure about the sub3, it was always a gamble...maybe an extra long run in training instead of a race might have helped, maybe too many short vo2 max sessions(60sec/200m?).
The pace was fine for the most part but i noticed my splits were dropping from the half!.
10k-41:52
1/2-1:29:06
30k-2:08:31
so i ran from 1/2 to 30k at 7:07m/m, weird, coz i didnt feel it bar one part where runners where running against me...
i could put this down to the heat starting to build up, the sun was out from mile 9.

To be fair, id say, maybe not this time round...but defo around 3:05.

3) Do you have any regrets about your strategy?

i have no regrets about the strategy but looking back at it, if i ran the last 12k in 8m/m i would have prob got in under 3:10, which would have been nice but in saying that 3:10-3:25....doesn't really matter to me in the end...i had a good craic at it and i did enjoy it all the same.
still though, i went out with a bang and what better way to go

im glad i had a cut at it...with what i have learned, ill defo know what to do and when to do it next rime around. no harm in changing pace mid race to suit a strong finish and a close to attempted time when things like the weather have a big influence, or a cramp/blister or whatever might get thrown at you mid race...

El Director

I read this thread with great interest, didn't comment as Im pretty much a novice and I have never completed a marathon. Anyway just like to say fair play to you. You had the balls to go for it and came so close might I add-2 miles only! Some might say there's a thin line between bravery and stupidity and there is but isn't it better to have tried and have no regrets? No, "well maybe if I had pushed it a little more I could have done...."

Had it have been me I would have done the exact same as you and what would have swung it was the fact that you weren't goin to have a crack at it again for a while, goin to college eh? It might b a few years if u enjoy yourself as much as I did in college! Well done man.

tisnotover

Like El Director just said, I was also reading this thread with interest last week, but did not post till now, as I'm doing my first marathon in Cork in two wks and also contemplating the sub-3 attempt!

Firstly, fair play to get up and finish the race. Shows real balls to go on and do that.
You ran very strong for the 24miles, but the difference could just be the heat on the day.

There'll be more marathons for you yet and from what you've learnt on Sunday, you'll def do the sub-3 next time out !

seanynova

El Director wrote: »

I read this thread with great interest, didn't comment as Im pretty much a novice and I have never completed a marathon. Anyway just like to say fair play to you. You had the balls to go for it and came so close might I add-2 miles only! Some might say there's a thin line between bravery and stupidity and there is but isn't it better to have tried and have no regrets? No, "well maybe if I had pushed it a little more I could have done...."

Had it have been me I would have done the exact same as you and what would have swung it was the fact that you weren't goin to have a crack at it again for a while, goin to college eh? It might b a few years if u enjoy yourself as much as I did in college! Well done man.

ya, thanks, i think if i had finished at 3:05 or 3:10 after setting out with a 7:00m/m pace etc, i might always be wondering "what could have been", so im glad i had a shot...

looking back at it, in the early 20's, i should have slowed down, i had it in my head that the demon would try and get to me, so i fought them all the way, but in truth i think it was more the heat, if i had adjusted(purposly slowed down) i might have ran the whole way...thats one lesson learned for the next one.

also, the college thing would be like the old days, mature student! and thats why i wont be able to run as much for a marathon coz ill be doing some serious marathon studying!

seanynova

tisnotover wrote: »

Like El Director just said, I was also reading this thread with interest last week, but did not post till now, as I'm doing my first marathon in Cork in two wks and also contemplating the sub-3 attempt!

Firstly, fair play to get up and finish the race. Shows real balls to go on and do that.
You ran very strong for the 24miles, but the difference could just be the heat on the day.

There'll be more marathons for you yet and from what you've learnt on Sunday, you'll def do the sub-3 next time out !

i've been reading you training blog, your in much better shape than i am, and you have been doing a lot of pmp sessions etc, im sure you will make sub3! i was running 6:45-6:50 and it felt very pedestrian and you have done a half in 82mins right?

not sure i was going well for 24 though, maybe more like 22/23...started taking a turn for the worst then, wondering, where is the next water station!!! and when it came the rest is history...

tisnotover

seanynova wrote: »

i've been reading you training blog, your in much better shape than i am, and you have been doing a lot of pmp sessions etc, im sure you will make sub3! i was running 6:45-6:50 and it felt very pedestrian and you have done a half in 82mins right?

not sure i was going well for 24 though, maybe more like 22/23...started taking a turn for the worst then, wondering, where is the next water station!!! and when it came the rest is history...

Ah, it all depends on the day, I have put in the training (I think) and a half under 1:23, but the weather could be against me. Fine margins with the heat, even if you look after the fuelling+water as you did!

I had a look at the results in around 2:58/2:59 mark from Edinburgh....not too many got under 3 with even or negative splits...most would have faded in 2nd half....it was exact same for Cork last year.

Onwards and upwards seany, recover well + open a training log here

Racman

tisnotover wrote: »

I had a look at the results in around 2:58/2:59 mark from Edinburgh....not too many got under 3 with even or negative splits...most would have faded in 2nd half....

I was in that group yesterday. Don't forget that the first half had a few miles downhill and also that it did not get too hot until just over an hour into the race. The second half got the sun at full blast. Most people seem to have had a second half from four minutes and upwards slower than the first. The first M50 ran 1.22.02 and 1.30.48 to hit 2.52.50 - 8.46 slower in the second half which suggests that some people also got a bit carried away early on!

seanynova

So, its been a week and half since the big crach...have been thinking about it almost everyday...
im still glad i went all out for it as when the tough got going in the 20s, it didnt make me quit, so im happy that i was able to handle it physcologically. on the other hand if i was more experienced, and realised that the heat was killing me, it might have been a good idea to take a 10min extra to plan A, and not wipe out at 24m(which was the one thing before the race i didnt want to happen)

since the race, i have been doing P&D recovery sessions, 5m rec, 6m rec kinda stuff...and taking it handy at 8m/m pace. the running is feeling a bit off though, but i did run till i dropped 10days ago...

back to why im posting, im seriously thinking of putting the sub3 thing to bed(if i can) and want to get it done asap...which in marathon terms is at least a 12week programme(if you lucky) away...possibly taking the next 3weeks off come saturday as im going to south america, not sure ill get in any runs there but when i come back(to canada) im thinking of starting a programme which will give me 15weeks to amsterdam or 16weeks to dublin....
again, should i shave a cut at it?

its prob a really stupid idea considering the college study and im kinda on holidays for the summer but im sure i could get in a run every morning or so...
with a 15week programme, im thinking of doctoring a daniels plan A, starting at 15weeks out and max mileage at 60m(which is 1more than previous, but moe consistant weeks) i might not even race in this but if i do the cork have is 5weeks out from amsterdam...

my previous sub3 attempt came from no distance running to a 14week run republic plan which was not laid out for an origional sub3 attempt, and i also had no idea of pacing my runs. so this attempt should be more structured for the goal...

what ya reckon? ill have a look at how i will break down the mile mileage workouts and post them here soon.

sorry for bringing up this recent ghost but just throwing it out there before i decide and start a training log here...

thanks in advance...

Krusty_Clown

Hi Seanynova, you're most definitely in sub-3 form, and given that you seem to have recovered, then pushing on for sub-3 is definitely a feasible option, if you can keep training levels at a consistent level or improve them slightly.

If you expect that studies will cause your training to drop off to levels below your previous attempt...Well, it's hard to expect a better outcome (though a cooler day will almost certainly give you a boost on the day).

Running can be a great way of taking a break from studies. However, if you commit to a plan and then find yourself not being in a position to make the training runs, you'll probably find that it just adds to your stress. You could alternatively start training for a solid half marathon, that will set you up nicely for your next marathon venture. Then if the training falls off the band-wagon, it's no massive loss. You cans switch to running as a pressure and stress release until you get a break in the studies.

Agony-aunt Krusty.

GoHardOrGoHome

Fair play for trying Seanynova, looks like you were well within sub 3 territory.

Just thinking about this...

seanynova wrote: »

the heat got to me i think, i never compensated for it....and got massivly dehydrated....took 5x330ml lucozade and 5gels at that stage so i shouldnt have been glycogen depleted(in theory?) but the temp rose from mile9 and it caused me to loose the mind and collapse.

If you're taking the gels maybe you need to take water instead of more sugar laden drinks. All the sugar may have been further dehydrating you.

I'm amazed your stomach held up!

Definitely sub 2:55 next time!

seanynova

i might not have been too far off sub3, but my training is kinda tiring these days, i am in canada and it was 25ish deg yesterday when i ran(i remember it well) but im tired and maybe jeg lagged...not sure i could handle a tempo run at the mo...

on top of that ill almost certainly miss 3weeks running before i start the schedule which might see me doing up to 42m the 1st week with an 11miler max.

is taking that much time off from tempo runs and aerobic runs going to drop levels of fitness by a lot?

You could alternatively start training for a solid half marathon

you could be right there, a 10week programme for the local cork half might be the more sensible option but that would mean my next marathon being something along the lines of next sept & oct....it would be along wait!

I'm amazed your stomach held up!

im not sure i did, i had another emergency gel tucked under my watch but didnt bother taking it, couldnt face it actually....nearly threw up on the bus back to endinburgh and didnt eat anything for the rest of the day bar a soup at the airport at 8:30ish....

anyway, ill see how the next few weeks go and go from there. it looking like ill give it a shot....sub 2:55! might train for that but not going to risk everything on the day again...

sound advice lads...

aero2k

Hi seanynova,

Congratulations on a great first time performance and on having the courage to really go for it, I held back a little and am regretting it now - there's always next time.

I hope it will be encouraging to hear that I did 3:23 in Dublin '08 (that didn't include 10-15 mins under the table!) and 2:59 a year later.

My personal opinion regarding running in the heat is that you can't improve your performance by going slower in the early part of the race when it's cooler, in the hope of keeping something in reserve for the hot part. It's not a question of energy usage; all other things being equal you'll be slower on a hot day than on a cool one as your muscles just don't work as well in the heat. That said, hydration is crucial, and anything you can do to cool yourself, like throwing water over your head and body, is a good idea.

Looking forward to hearing about your sub-3 on your next attempt.

asimonov

GoHardOrGoHome wrote: »

If you're taking the gels maybe you need to take water instead of more sugar laden drinks. All the sugar may have been further dehydrating you.


Definitely sub 2:55 next time!

+1 on both of these - excuse the science - but all that gel and sports drink would just suck all the water out of you. I did the same as aero, going from 3:22 - sub 3 in six months; maybe going with a highish mileage half marathon programme keeping your long runs at 120' and then flip to a short (12 week) marathon programme will get you home easily.

seanynova

im starting to agree very much with the fueling analysis lads, i did have a high sugar intake, still though, may not have gotten sub3 last time out anyway

I have decided that im going to try amsterdam in oct...hopefully ill have an injury free programme...

when i get back ill start up a training log, but the 1st few weeks will be low-ish mileage as i wont want to get injured, then it will be a solid 12 week programme till the race...

look out for the training log in july!

mithril

Would salt tablets on their own have worked better such as Nuuns?
I know some of the experienced ultra runners were using them in the Connemara Ultra but the scenario might be a bit different since you have longer on your feet.

The only tip I have is forget about following the shortest line when its hot and switch position on the road to try and stay in the shade.

aero2k

seanynova wrote: »

im starting to agree very much with the fueling analysis lads, i did have a high sugar intake, still though, may not have gotten sub3 last time out anyway

I have decided that im going to try amsterdam in oct...hopefully ill have an injury free programme...

Some sugar is a good idea though, and worth practicing on your long runs. I had 4 gels and wish I'd taken the 5th I was carrying.

mithril wrote: »

Would salt tablets on their own have worked better such as Nuuns?
I know some of the experienced ultra runners were using them in the Connemara Ultra but the scenario might be a bit different since you have longer on your feet.

The only tip I have is forget about following the shortest line when its hot and switch position on the road to try and stay in the shade.

I've never tried salt tablets, but I did use PowerBar gels which have sodium in them.
You're right about the shade, unfortunately there was almost none to be got after 9 or 10 miles, apart from a short stretch around 17 and one little bit after that. It was mostly along the seafront so totally exposed.

It would be a challenging course on a cold, wet and windy day too - I think they've evn had snow in the past!