Lotto bonus number

supremenovice

No doubt Ill be dismissed as a complete eejit but Ill say it anyway...

Paddy Power offer odds of 38/1 to pick the correct bonus number of the main lotto draw. Now of course, it could be any one of 45 numbers so those odds are about right.
Anyway, Ive been looking at some stats and if you believe in a law of averages, like myself, then youll say that every number will come out at some stage.
So, number 37 hasnt appeared in roughly 230 draws so Im going to stick with it until it does. Its bound to be out soon isnt it???

TskTsk

supremenovice wrote: »

So, number 37 hasnt appeared in roughly 230 draws so Im going to stick with it until it does. Its bound to be out soon isnt it???

If 37 had come up in every one of the last 230 draws, it would still have the same chance of coming up in the next draw. When you talk about the law of averages, I think you have to consider the odds over an infinite number of draws, at which point 230 are insignificant.

El Horseboxo

The law of averages is usually based on a short sample of results of an event but i'd never apply it to the lottery. The machine has no memory or capability to produce a ball based on performance and therefore will offer the same odds each time it spits out the bonus ball. Which is as you said 1 in 45. Considering the minumim amount for the lotto on PP is a euro you could well go over 45 attempts at trying the number 37 if you played that minimum. Even if you got it on your 10th attempt you will have spent 10 for a return of 45. There are better odds in other areas of betting. Ones which you can base on actual factors that can determine the outcome.

amacachi

I'd like to see the figures since the Lotto went to 45 numbers, I get the distinct impression that a certain number range is coming up more than others.

fatherbuzcagney

to pick the 2 lucky stars in the euro millions is 30/1 in betting shop with a possible 36 combinations ,my strategy sometimes is to pick a single number ,8 say and do all 8 combinations , 8 1, 8 2 , 8 3..... 8 9 so if 8 hits i will get 30/1 on one of the bets, it kinda feels like im getting 30/1 instead of 8/1 as im only banking on number 8 to come out of the 2 numbers to be drawn from the possible 9.

anyone catch my drift?

Paddy Irishman

Originally posted by fatherbuzcagney

to pick the 2 lucky stars in the euro millions is 30/1 in betting shop with a possible 36 combinations ,my strategy sometimes is to pick a single number ,8 say and do all 8 combinations , 8 1, 8 2 , 8 3..... 8 9 so if 8 hits i will get 30/1 on one of the bets, it kinda feels like im getting 30/1 instead of 8/1 as im only banking on number 8 to come out of the 2 numbers to be drawn from the possible 9.

anyone catch my drift?

To get one lucky number is 3/1 in the shops. So if you had €1 on each of your eight bets above it would return €31 for an €8 bet if No.8 comes out. However, if you put that €8 on No.8 at 3/1 you would get €32! :eek:

fatherbuzcagney

Paddy Irishman wrote: »

To get one lucky number is 3/1 in the shops. So if you had €1 on each of your eight bets above it would return €31 for an €8 bet if No.8 comes out. However, if you put that €8 on No.8 at 3/1 you would get €32! :eek:

i did say it only feels like it:o i :didn't say it could make money out of it:pac:

Mellor

He was just pointing out, that if you bet on 8 alone, you'll make more money if 8 comes out, which it has to.

OP, and to everyone else really.
It's great that you believe in the laws of averages, the example you used is nothing got to do with averages. 37 has an equal chance in every spin, its probility, not averages.
Averages would be if there are 5 different colours for balls, and they pull out 30/45, on average each colour will be out 6 times. Which is irrelevant to lotto betting.


I post here a lot, i'm a mod and a few people know me in real life. So this is a serious offer.
Most of the lotto threads are nonsense.
If anybody can suggest a betting system, or even a single bet on the lotto with the bookies or with the national lottery. I'll give them 100 euro on PaddyPower, Betfair or Pokerstars

Verance

Mellor wrote: »

I post here a lot, i'm a mod and a few people know me in real life. So this is a serious offer.
Most of the lotto threads are nonsense.
If anybody can suggest a betting system, or even a single bet on the lotto with the bookies or with the national lottery. I'll give them 100 euro on PaddyPower, Betfair or Pokerstars

The Boylesports free bet lotto slip. :pac:
Pick 5 numbers, match 3, get €10 free bet, match 4, €100 free bet, match 5. €1000 free bet. They're not in every shop though...

Mellor

lol nice try, not a bet, its an special offer by them.

Verance

But you might get a bet!

LittleLebowski

We do a draw in work were everyone is given a number permanently and one guy keeps bloody winning. Its a running joke at this stage and sometimes I even do the lotto and rub the ticket off his head he is so damn lucky.
The number is 5.
Use this knowledge wisely!

Shinto

You have fallen prey to what is known in Psychology as "The Gambler's Fallacy." This is the erroneous belief that random processes (like the Lotto) have to "correct" themselves. They don't correct themselves. Random is random. If the number 5 came up the last 10 times, it's still just as likely to come up the next time.

But you're no eejit though. I probably spend more money on the lotto here than anyone else. So i'm the eejit. I know i'm more likely to be struck by lightning, yet i still play. How stupid is that! [dont answer]:)

jacool

supremenovice wrote: »

No doubt Ill be dismissed as a complete eejit but Ill say it anyway...

Paddy Power offer odds of 38/1 to pick the correct bonus number of the main lotto draw. Now of course, it could be any one of 45 numbers so those odds are about right.
Anyway, Ive been looking at some stats and if you believe in a law of averages, like myself, then youll say that every number will come out at some stage.
So, number 37 hasnt appeared in roughly 230 draws so Im going to stick with it until it does. Its bound to be out soon isnt it???

14-Jul-2010 bonus number 37 draw 56 of that year
23-Oct-2010 bonus number 37 draw 85 of that year
23-Mar-2011 bonus number 37 draw 24 of this year
27-Apr-2011 bonus number 37 draw 34 of this year
That's 144 draws so 144 bets 4 returns of 39 equals 156, a tiny profit!
28 and 38 haven't been out since 2009 if you want to start again !!

governmenthill

In case anyone does not know; If u add up all the numbers in each blockof 45 number and the muli by the total number of boxes that will/should give u idea of the odd's of winning
in other words; 45+44+43+42+41+40+39+38+37++36+35+34+33+33+32+31+30+29+28+27+26+25+24+23+22+21+20
+19+18+17=16+15+14+13+12+11+10 +9+8+7+6+5+4+34+2+:cool::cool:

governmenthill

sorry last 4 numbers should have read [ 4+3+2+1 not [34]

tinodz

Seeing as this thread popped back up again, I just thought I would tell everyone that 16 will be the bonus number on Saturday, or uimhir a sé déag as Lotto Woman says.

This is obviously going to happen, guaranteed,

Bets €1