Simple question.

Deliverance

Does the euro have a future? Will it inevitablly collapse forcing us to revert back to individual currencies?

ei.sdraob

Lets hope it has a future

cause the alternative of switching back to a punt (for Ireland) would not be pretty

hinault

Deliverance wrote: »

Does the euro have a future? Will it inevitablly collapse forcing us to revert back to individual currencies?

As was pointed out on the Week in Politics tonight, by a US professor, several states in the USA have been declared bankrupt and they did not bring down the US dollar.

The Euro is here to stay - whether we, as a country, will be allowed to and/or will be able to stay in the Euroclub is debatable.

Scofflaw

hinault wrote: »

As was pointed out on the Week in Politics tonight, by a US professor, several states in the USA have been declared bankrupt and they did not bring down the US dollar.

The Euro is here to stay - whether we, as a country, will be allowed to and/or will be able to stay in the Euroclub is debatable.

On the other hand, the dollar is not a voluntary arrangement at this stage.

cordially,
Scofflaw

johnnyskeleton

Yes, in my opinion it has a future, but don't quote me on that or rely on it as gospel truth. There is no way to say for sure.

There is a lot of talk about the euro collapsing due to the strain put on it by Greece running close to default. But the EU has gotten past that by bailing out Greece.

IMO if it gets really bad for the Euro it will either engage in quantitative easing so as to reduce the overall level of debt by inflation or else will allow defaulting nations to leave the euro. In either event, the Euro will still survive, albeit at a much reduced value.

There are some commentators who have been against the euro from the start and want to see it fail. I suppose the euro is a serious threat to the dominance of the USD as the world fiat currency, and while euros becoming the dominant world currency would not necessarily be a good thing, I like the fact that the Euro has remained strong and has so far avoided the worst excesses of QE (unlike UK and US).

ei.sdraob

Scofflaw wrote: »

On the other hand, the dollar is not a voluntary arrangement at this stage.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Good point

states in the US cant leave the Union if they wanted to
also they have much more centralized and larger government

which is probably what will happen here, more powers going to EU to prevent this from happening, whether that's good or bad i don't know...

Nijmegen

I think it has a future, as we're all tied together now - Even Germany, who sends an awful lot of its exports per head to countries like Italy and Spain.

I believe that this will force us together in what during, if you'll pardon my turn of phrase, in economic peacetime was not achieved - closer political union.

In Ireland we've already been running our economic policy through Brussels since this began, with a tacit understanding that the Eurozone was behind us. For Greece, it has had to become a clear understanding.

At the end of the day, Ireland is in big trouble without the Eurozone, but the Eurozone cannot exist as an economic union with no further political union. I think that the sane minds, when weighing the alternatives, will go with closer union. In the end, it achieves what Germany and France have been seeking all along anyway.

hiorta

It must be particlarly galling for the Germans to have had to watch while others climbed aboard a potentially fine bandwagon, hoping to fill their pockets at the expense of others.
Now, when it's their turn to put their share into the pot they selfishly want off.
Perhaps a tiered economic benefit system might provide a solution - the solid performers gain solid rewards.

murphaph

The biggest threat to the future of the Euro IMO is Germany itself. If the German public continue to see bailout after bailout with their hard earned money going to the likes of Greece, Italy, Ireland etc. they'll demand and end to Germany's participation in the Euro. Germany would survive such an exit (a lot of capital would probably move to Germany in such an instance actually) but would the remaining waster countries with all the fiscal discipline of a drunk sailor?