The 14 days hot hot hot! trainers log

mike65

So whats this about then?

We all know that trainers run through hot and cold spells and that when a yard hits form its a good idea to follow until they cool off. I've decided that 14 days is a reasonable period to measure the hot streak (anyone can have a good few days while I suspect a month is too long esp in the flat world)

For the purposes of this thread the trainer must have had at least 10 runners in the previous 14 days with a 25% win rate, the s/p is not considered.

So who's hot right now?

Michael JARVIS (M. A. JARVIS) 25 runners 11 winners 6 placed.

John GODSEN (J. GOSDEN) 27 runners 7 winners 7 placed

William KNIGHT (W. J. KNIGHT) 19 runners 6 winners 3 placed.


I'll update this thread twice a week (Sunday and Thursday), what you decide to do with this info is up to you.

skeleton_boy

Great thread Mike

Gavin "shels"

Good idea, where would be the best place to find the horses trained by the selected trainers, tried ATR there but didn't come up with anything.

mike65

If you are looking for entries over the next 48 hours, use www.timeform.com/free, click Trainers and copy and paste the name in brackets and you'll get a list of runners.

POINTBREAK

Good idea Mike. Is there anyway of easily checking trainers who are out of form?
I know the Racing Post gives a percentage figure for the trainers horses who have run to form based on their RPR but that can be a bit misleading as far as I can see since if they only have 3 or 4 runners that ran to their rating but didn't win they could still achieve a 100% rating. According to the Post 72% of William Knights horses are running to form, but John Berry has 100% of his RTF, but he has only has 3 winners in the last 18 months.

mike65

I use Adrian Massey for all this sort of thing. Avoid Paul Midgley!

POINTBREAK

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=65814473#post65814473

You guys might be interested in this.

mike65

When looking for John Gosden copy and paste J. H. M. Gosden into timeform.

mike65

M A JARVIS 28 runners 10 wins 7 placed 35.7% win rate

Bubbling under -

MISS TRACY WAGGOTT 8 runners 4 wins 2 placed 50% win rate
D R LANIGAN 7 runners 3 wins 1 placed 43% win rate
G A HARKER 8 runners 3 wins 1 placed 37.5% win rate

mike65

M. A. JARVIS 28 runners 9 wins 7 placed 32% win rate (nearly all wins at the start of this period)
H. CECIL 29 runners 8 wins 6 places 27.6% win rate
D. H. BROWN 12 runners 3 wins 4 places 25.0% win rate

Bubbling under

J. HOWARD JOHNSON 8 runners 3 wins 0 places 37.5% win rate

mike65

H. CECIL 28 runners 10 wins 4 places 35.7% win rate
R. CHARLTON 16 runners 5 wins 3 places 31.2% win rate
T. BARRON 17 runners 5 winners 4 places 29.4% win rate
J. HOWARD JOHNSON 14 runners 4 wins 2 places 28.6% win rate
J. JENKINS 11 runners 3 winners 1 place 27.3% win rate
M. DODS 26 runners 7 winners 4 places 26.9% win rate
L. CUMANI 23 runners 6 wins 6 places 26.1% win rate

mike65

H CECIL 24 runners 11 wins 2 places 45.8% win rate
A BALDING 25 runners 7 winners 4 places 29% win rate
J JENKINS 15 runners 4 winners 1 place 26.7% win rate
R CHARLTON 20 runners 5 winners 3 places 25% win rate
L CUMANI 20 runners 5 winners 5 places 25% win rate
R M WHITAKER 12 runners 3 winners 3 places 25% win rate

mike65

H CECIL 21 runners 9 winners 1 placed 42% win rate
M SAUNDERS 10 runners 4 winners 1 placed 40% win rate
A BAILEY 11 runners 4 winners 2 placed 36.4% win rate
R CHARLTON 18 runners 6 winners 1 placed 33.3% win rate
L CUMANI 17 runners 5 winners 4 placed 29.4% win rate
E A L DUNLOP 15 runners 4 winners 3 placed 26.7% win rate
J HOWARD JOHNSON 19 runners 5 winners 5 placed 26.3% win rate
A BALDING 27 runners 7 winners 5 placed 26% win rate

mike65

M SAUNDERS 10 runners 5 winners 1 placed 50% win rate
M A JARVIS 20 runners 8 winners 5 placed 40% win rate
J BETHELL 13 runners 5 winners 1 placed 38.5% win rate
MISS TRACY WAGGOTT 10 runners 3 winners 2 placed 30% win rate
A BAILEY 10 runners 3 winners 2 placed 30% win rate
H CECIL 17 runners 5 winners 2 placed 29.4% win rate
L CUMANI 14 runners 4 winners 5 placed 28.6% win rate
R CHARLTON 18 runners 5 winners 1 placed 27.8% win rate
J DUNLOP 19 runners 5 winners 4 placed 26.3% win rate
W HAGGAS 23 runners 6 winners 5 placed 26.1% win rate
J JENKINS 12 runners 3 winners 0 placed 25.0% win rate

mike65

I'm raising the bar to 30% win rate as things are getting quite competitive!

M SAUNDERS 10 runners 5 winners 1 placed 50% win rate
J HETHERTON 9 runnrers 4 winners 2 placed 44.4% win rate
M A JARVIS 22 runners 9 wins 7 placed 40.9% win rate
J BETHELL 11 runners 4 wins 1 placed 36.4% win rate
SIR MARK PRESCOTT 25 runners 8 wins 7 placed 32.0% win rate
P D'ARCY 10 runners 3 wins 4 placed 30.0% win rate
L CUMANI 20 runners 6 wins 7 placed 30.0% win rate

mike65

SIR MARK PRESCOTT 27 runners 13 wins 7 placed 48.1% win rate
M SAUNDERS 11 runners 5 winners 0 placed 48.1% win rate
J BETHELL 10 runners 4 wins 1 placed 40.0% win rate
L CUMANI 26 runners 10 wins 8 placed 38.5% win rate
M A JARVIS 29 runners 10 wins 12 placed 40.9% win rate
P D'ARCY 10 runners 3 wins 3 placed 30.0% win rate

mike65

SIR MARK PRESCOTT 29 runners 13 wins 7 placed 44.8% win rate
M SAUNDERS 10 runners 4 winners 0 placed 40.0% win rate
J BETHELL 11 runners 4 wins 1 placed 36.4% win rate
L CUMANI 24 runners 9 wins 7 placed 37.5% win rate
H CANDY 11 runners 4 wins 1 placed 36.4% win rate

Bubbling under
T BARRON 22 runners 6 wins 6 placed 27.3% win rate
M A JARVIS 33 runners 8 wins 13 placed 24.2% win rate

mike65

SIR MARK PRESCOTT 23 runners 10 wins 5 placed 43.5% win rate
L CUMANI 20 runners 8 winners 6 placed 40.0% win rate
SAEED SUROOR 15 runners 6 wins 3 placed 40.0% win rate
R CHARLTON 15 runners 5 wins 1 placed 33.3% win rate
PAUL GREEN 13 runners 4 wins 2 placed 30.8% win rate
P CHAPPLE-HYAM 13 runners 4 wins 0 placed 30.8% win rate
M SAUNDERS 11 runners 3 wins 0 placed 27.3% win rate
S DOW 12 runners 3 wins 2 placed 25.0% win rate

mike65

SIR MARK PRESCOTT 23 runners 9 wins 6 placed 39.1% win rate
PAT EDDERY 13 runners 4 winners 2 placed 30.8% win rate
MRS A DUFFIELD 13 runners 4 winners 4 placed 30/8% win rate
L CUMANI 24 runners 7 winners 5 placed 29.2% win rate
SAEED SUROOR 18 runners 5 wins 4 placed 27.8% win rate
S DOW 11 runners 3 wins 2 placed 27.3% win rate
R CHARLTON 20 runners 5 wins 1 placed 25.0% win rate

mike65

MRS A DUFFIELD 11 runners 4 winners 2 placed 36.4% win rate
PAT EDDERY 13 runners 4 winners 2 placed 30.8% win rate
S DOW 11 runners 3 wins 2 placed 27.3% win rate
R CHARLTON 22 runners 6 wins 1 placed 27.3% win rate
L CUMANI 27 runners 7 winners 4 placed 25.9% win rate
SIR MARK PRESCOTT 16 runners 4 wins 4 placed 25.0% win rate
J HILLS 16 runners 4 wins 1 placed 25.0% win rate

mike65

SIR MARK PRESCOTT 15 runners 5 wins 4 placed 33.3% win rate
PAT EDDERY 13 runners 4 winners 2 placed 30.8% win rate
J HILLS 16 runners 5 wins 2 placed 26.3% win rate
R BECKETT 27 runners 7 wins 3 placed 25.9% win rate
T.P. TATE 12 runners 3wins 1 placed 25.0% win rate
J NOSEDA 27 runners 7 wins 5 placed 25.9% win rate
W R SWINBURN 20 runners 5 wins 2 placed 25.0% win rate

LittleLebowski

Great thread. Keep it up.

mike65

PAT EDDERY 10 runners 3 winners 1 placed 30.0% win rate
J HILLS 17 runners 5 wins 4 placed 29.4% win rate
W R SWINBURN 22 runners 6 wins 2 placed 27.3% win rate
R BECKETT 22 runners 6 wins 3 placed 27.3% win rate
SIR MARK PRESCOTT 15 runners 4 wins 6 placed 26.7% win rate
R CHARLTON 20 runners 5 wins 2 placed 25.0% win rate

mike65

R CHARLTON 19 runners 7 wins 2 placed 36.8% win rate -
PAT EDDERY 13 runners 4 winners 1 placed 30.8% win rate -
M A JARVIS 24 runners 7 winners 5 places 29.2% win rate -
R BECKETT 21 runners 6 wins 3 placed 29.2% win rate -
C BRITTAIN 32 eunners 8 winners 3 places 25.0% win rate


Bubbling under
W R SWINBURN 21 runners 5 wins 4 placed 23.8% win rate
G A HARKER 13 runners 3 wins 2 placed 23.1% win rate

mike65

R CHARLTON 17 runners 7 wins 2 placed 41.2% win rate
G A HARKER 11 runners 4 wins 2 placed 36.4% win rate
M AL ZAROONI 19 runers 6 wins 4 placed 31.6% win rate
M A JARVIS 27 runners 8 winners 7 placed 29.6% win rate (15% loss)
SIR MARK PRESCOTT 17 runners 5 wins 5 placed 29.4% win rate (4% loss)
J NOSEDA 18 runners 5 wins 6 places 27.8% win rate
H CECIL 11 runners 3 winners 2 placed 27.3% win rate
R BECKETT 21 runners 6 wins 3 placed 29.2% win rate
G A BUTLER 12 runners 3 wins 1 placed 25.0% win rate
W R SWINBURN 24 runners 6 wins 3 placed 25.0% win rate
B ELLISON 20 runners 5 winners 7 placed 25.0% win rate
A CARROLL 12 runners 3 winners 0 placed 25.0% win rate
L CUMANI 20 runners 5 winners 7 placed 25.0% win rate (30% loss)

POINTBREAK

Mike, you seem to be missing Jimmy Noseda. 6 winners from his last 19 runners in the last 14 days.

Make that 7

POINTBREAK

3 winners from 3 runners so far today for Mark Johnston and one to come at 9:20.

mike65

He ain't on the list though! He might well be on Thursday (Johnson has so many horses you have to pick and choose additional criteria carefully).

POINTBREAK

Here's an interesting stat.

The Prescott yard has had only two of the last 17 runners out of the frame.

mike65

Prices are awful! Too many 2nds and 3rds for comfort (unless you pile in using PP insured betting).

mike65

Cut of raised to 30%, getting competitive again.

R CHARLTON 18 runners 9 wins 1 placed 50.0% win rate
G A HARKER 11 runners 4 wins 0 placed 36.4% win rate
H CECIL 12 runers 4 wins 1 placed 33.3% win rate
B ELLISON 12 runners 4 wins 3 placed 33.3% win rate
GEORGE BAKER 12 runners 4 wins 1 placed 33.3% win rate
S DOW 10 runners 3 wins 1 placed 30.0% win rate
TRACY WAGGOTT 10 winners 3 wins 2 placed 30.0% win rate

mike65

I'm quitting this to have a rethink, its only working as an indicator of who has been hot unfortunately. Like unemployment numbers its a lagging indicator rather than a guide to the next near future.