EU Commission forecasts Irish economic growth of 3% in 2011

mathie

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1019612.shtml

The EU Commission in its Spring forecast published today (gateway page to full report, summary and individual country forecasts) says the Irish economy will grow by 3% in 2011 after a dip of 0.9% in 2010. Annual growth rates of about 1% are expected in both the Eurozone and the EU27 in 2010 while in 2011, GDP (gross domestic product) growth could accelerate to, or just above, 1.5%

Ireland's forecast growth of 3% in 2011 is at the same level as other countries which experienced big contractions, such as like Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Greece's economy is set to contract by 3% this year and 0.5% next year.

pfy2k

Do you really believe this dross! Or do you just live in hope!

RichardAnd

pfy2k wrote: »

Do you really believe this dross! Or do you just live in hope!

It could very well happen, in fact, the economy is growing right now. The Irish economy will, in technical terms, leave recession soon so the EU are not making unsupported claims.

However, simply because an economy is growing does not mean we will see new jobs being created at any real noticeable level. Recession is just a economists' word.

P. Breathnach

RichardAnd wrote: »

... However, simply because an economy is growing does not mean we will see new jobs being created at any real noticeable level. Recession is just a economists' word.

Economic growth tends to generate jobs, although there is no reason to suppose that job creation is proportionate to growth. There is usually a lag between growth and job creation, typically the best part of a year.

Anita Blow

pfy2k wrote: »

Do you really believe this dross! Or do you just live in hope!

I'd rather believe the experienced EU Commission than a begrudging Irish person.
I'm not specifically targeting you, more the Irish as a whole.

RichardAnd

P. Breathnach wrote: »

Economic growth tends to generate jobs, although there is no reason to suppose that job creation is proportionate to growth. There is usually a lag between growth and job creation, typically the best part of a year.

Precisely, which is what I was trying to say but I think I didn't make it very clear . I guess a good way of summing it up would be like this; the fire is dying out but the damage still remains.

Flamed Diving

The original source:

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/eu/forecasts/2010_spring/ie_en.pdf

pfy2k

Anita Blow wrote: »

I'd rather believe the experienced EU Commission than a begrudging Irish person.
I'm not specifically targeting you, more the Irish as a whole.

Oh I agree about the Irish mentality, But I have heard this propaganda before from our lovely homegrown TD's, So I am very sceptical about foreign Eurocrats from the EU. After all there priority is there own states, just look at the Germans views on the Greeks!

pfy2k

When things are good, a happy family called the EU. But when things go ****ty. Its every country for itself!:eek:

ei.sdraob

I hope their "forecasting" ability have gotten better this time :rolleyes:

their past record speaks volumes :P

Ireland's GDP growth is expected to slow to around 2.25% in 2008. The Commission reports that Ireland's robust economic performance during 2007 masked a significant deterioration over the course of the year, mainly due to a severe correction in the housing sector. In 2007 house completions fell by one tenth from their 2006 peak.

source

:cool:

unfortunately the link to the forecast for 2008 has been removed from their site (in shame?)


heres what actually happened

economic activity dropped sharply in 2008-09 as GDP fell by 3% in 2008 and nearly 8% in 2009.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ei.html


tho on the bright side they were more "correct" than this lot :P

SkepticOne

ei.sdraob wrote: »

I hope their "forecasting" ability have gotten better this time :rolleyes:

their past record speaks volumes :P

source

:cool:

unfortunately the link to the forecast for 2008 has been removed from their site (in shame?)
heres what actually happened
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ei.html


tho on the bright side they were more "correct" than this lot :P

Maybe they're getting their forecasts from the ESRI. That might explain why they are so poor.

ei.sdraob

SkepticOne wrote: »

Maybe they're getting their forecasts from the ESRI. That might explain why they are so poor.

or bank of ireland :eek:

hinault

I would take any predictions about our economy growing with a large pinch of salt.

We will be doing well to stop the ongoing contraction in this economy in 2010.

Flamed Diving

As you can tell from past examples, forecast should be taken with a pillar of salt. The assumptions placed, and the number of variables held constant are so many that it never surprises me to see that they fail, in particular the ones that attempt to see more than a few months ahead.

StupidLikeAFox

Even if we do see 3% growth, 3% of nothing is still nothing

ei.sdraob

ColHol wrote: »

Even if we do see 3% growth, 3% of nothing is still nothing

considering we be running of deficit to gdp of 13%...

ei.sdraob

for that matter

GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports)


increase government spending and "voila" you have GDP growth :P

unit 1

At least the "fundamentals" are sound, just in time for 2012 too.;)