World Cup 2010 Betting

MR NINE

I've been doing a bit of research for a couple of World Cup bets recently(procrastination FTW) and I've come up with a couple of bets that represent great value IMO but are unlikely to happen. I'm considering this particular bet and I was just wondering what peoples thoughts are on it:

The following teams all to win their World Cup group:

France Evs
Argentina 4/9
England 1/3
Germany 8/11
Holland 4/6
Italy 4/9
Brazil 8/13
Spain 1/3

Total odds on the accumulator is just under 34/1.

If I do put this bet on, I won't expect it to succeed but I think its incredibly good value. I fully expect at least 6, probably 7, of these teams to win their group, but although 7 out of 8 isn't bad normally speaking, its pretty useless with regards to accumulators. Can anybody suggest an alternative form of bet which they think would be a better option regarding these selections? Any criticisms/suggestions regarding my selections are more than welcome.

jive

Goliath
Doubles
Trebles
Fourfolds
Fivefolds
Sixfolds
Sevenfolds

http://www.skybet.com/help/four-fold_accumulator.shtm
different bet types explained on the left hand side bar. pick whichever one you think would be best :P
6 fold could be a good shout

In_tuition

Looks like your odds are from Paddy Power.

I'd advise holding out till near the start of the World Cup as they will likely push most teams in the group betting out slightly so if you suspect that you are getting decent value now you will obtain even more if you 'hold your horses'.

Good luck.

MR NINE

In_tuition wrote: »

Looks like your odds are from Paddy Power.

I'd advise holding out till near the start of the World Cup as they will likely push most teams in the group betting out slightly so if you suspect that you are getting decent value now you will obtain even more if you 'hold your horses'.

Good luck.

Odds are indeed from Paddy Power. Why would they push out the odds on group betting closer to World Cup?

MR NINE

jive wrote: »

Goliath
Doubles
Trebles
Fourfolds
Fivefolds
Sixfolds
Sevenfolds

http://www.skybet.com/help/four-fold_accumulator.shtm
different bet types explained on the left hand side bar. pick whichever one you think would be best :P
6 fold could be a good shout

Which six are you thinking?

Gillington

The only group bets I think Ill be doing is Serbia @ 4/1 and a straight forecast to hedge on Germany 1st and Serbia 2nd also @ 4/1

In_tuition

MR NINE wrote: »

Odds are indeed from Paddy Power. Why would they push out the odds on group betting closer to World Cup?

They do it on a lot of outright events nearer the actual timing.

Juwwi

Am l right in thinking that alot of stadiums in south africa are high above sea level which could be interesting.

l think l read somewhere that mexico's group has a few matches high above sea level and mexico are used to playing at high altidudes.

lt might be worth putting a bit of research into it.

MR NINE

In_tuition wrote: »

They do it on a lot of outright events nearer the actual timing.

I'm wasn't questioning it I was just wondering if you knew why the bookies do it?

Juwwi

MR NINE wrote: »

I'm wasn't questioning it I was just wondering if you knew why the bookies do it?

they do it because they are all competing for ur money so to try and attract people they make the prices bigger.

In_tuition

robbie1977 wrote: »

they do it because they are all competing for ur money so to try and attract people they make the prices bigger.

+1

MR NINE

Another bet I've been contemplating, but a much longer shot, is an 18 match accumulator. Obviously thats a ridiculously big accumulator but the value is incredible and theres only a couple of matches I can see letting me down:

Brazil v North Korea 1/10
Italy v New Zealand 1/7
Spain v Honduras 1/6
Portugal v North Korea 1/5
Ivory Coast v North Korea 2/9
England v Algeria 1/4
Argentina v South Korea 1/3
Spain v Switzerland 4/11
Paraguay v New Zealand 4/11
England v Slovenia 2/5
Holland v Japan 1/2
Slovakia v New Zealand 1/2
England v USA 8/15
Germany v Australia 4/7
Brazil v Ivory Coast 4/6
USA v Algeria 4/6
France v South Africa 4/5
Mexico v South Africa 13/10

Combined odds of 580/1. Worth a cheeky tenner I reckon.

Anybody else planning/planned a few bets, either longshot or realistic? Any thoughts on my longshots?

oconnon9

MR NINE wrote: »

Another bet I've been contemplating, but a much longer shot, is an 18 match accumulator. Obviously thats a ridiculously big accumulator but the value is incredible and theres only a couple of matches I can see letting me down:

Brazil v North Korea 1/10
Italy v New Zealand 1/7
Spain v Honduras 1/6
Portugal v North Korea 1/5
Ivory Coast v North Korea 2/9
England v Algeria 1/4
Argentina v South Korea 1/3
Spain v Switzerland 4/11
Paraguay v New Zealand 4/11
England v Slovenia 2/5
Holland v Japan 1/2
Slovakia v New Zealand 1/2
England v USA 8/15
Germany v Australia 4/7
Brazil v Ivory Coast 4/6
USA v Algeria 4/6
France v South Africa 4/5
Mexico v South Africa 13/10

Combined odds of 580/1. Worth a cheeky tenner I reckon.

Anybody else planning/planned a few bets, either longshot or realistic? Any thoughts on my longshots?

il give you 1,000,000/1 and take ur tenner!

Seriously though 1 team guaranteed 2 let you down...

Do doubles - its usually quite profitable during WC/EUROS

jive

MR NINE wrote: »

Which six are you thinking?

england, germany, spain, brazil, netherlands, italy

that being said i wouldnt place a bet like this... too many teams to let you down with such little value involved. imo large singles/doubles on spain, england on brazil would be best. brazil look the value bet imo

AidySevenfold

I wouldn't be too sure on Holland.
Denmark proved to be a really good team in qualifying
and with players like Agger, Kjaer, Sorensen, Jensen, Tomasson and Bendtner ( i know he's not clinical but his international record is fantastic) I don't think I would put Holland to win their group.
Just my opinion though

Kod-box

France are the dodgy bet there.

ValueSeeker

The Serbs are my dark horses. Bwin go 14/1 they reach the semi.

Back with full betting preview closer the off.

MR NINE

I put the bet I mentioned in the OP on the other day. Turns out the prices had gotten shorter, not longer. Not giving out as I know people were trying to help but just making people aware, in case they're waiting for improved prices.

Headshot

Uruguay v France

this match really interests me, if I was pushed I would go for a Uruguay win but i wont be betting on that

Ill be going for goals galore

over 2.5 is 6/4 and over 3.5 is 7/2 (pp)

iv watched these teams alot during the year and they cant defend but are very good on the attack especially Uruguay with Suarez and Forlan

ill be going for 50 on both overs

ForeverYoung90

Brazil to win outright
David Villa top scorer
Denmark & Serbia double to qualify from group
Spain,Brazil & England treble to win group

Fonze07

The following are the bets i have placed so far: I rate the value of the bet out of 5 stars.

1. 20 euro on Uruguay to win their group at 7/2. Value: 3 stars

France are ****, South Africa are ****

Mexico are the only team that i fear could ruin it but at 7/2 i think its good.

2. 30 euro on Spain, Italy, Holland, England, Argentina and Germany to win their groups is just under 10/1. Very good me thinks. Value 4 stars

3. 25 euro on Villa to be top scorer at 8/1. Just cant see beyond him to finish top scorer. Value: 4 stars

4. Rooney top scorer each way at 11/1. Can't see him being out of the top 5 so will still make a profit if he finishes in the top 5. With Algeria and Slovenia in their group he is likely to be up there come the end of the tournament. Value 5 stars to be in top 5

5. 25 euro Under 19.5 Red Cards in the tournament at 5/6. With 64 matches in total to be played, i dont think there will be a sending off in one every 3 or so matches. Value: 3 stars

6. The final bet i have done so far is a match accumulator. I have put 100 euro on the following. Accumulator works out at just over 11/8
England to beat Algeria (1/4)
Spain to beat Honduras (1/6)
Italy to beat New Zealand (1/7)
Holland to beat Japan (4/9)
Value: 5 stars

Thoughts? Will do a couple more nearer the time!

MrMiyagi

Fonze07 wrote: »

2. 30 euro on Spain, Italy, Holland, England, Argentina and Germany to win their groups is just under 10/1. Very good me thinks. Value 4 stars

I think germany have a better chance now without ballack, argentina could be dodgy against grafters like greece and s korea, they didnt set the qualifiying alight with martin palermo and veron limping them through

Fonze07 wrote: »

5. 25 euro Under 19.5 Red Cards in the tournament at 5/6. With 64 matches in total to be played, i dont think there will be a sending off in one every 3 or so matches. Value: 3 stars

Looks good

Fonze07 wrote: »

4. Rooney top scorer each way at 11/1. Can't see him being out of the top 5 so will still make a profit if he finishes in the top 5. With Algeria and Slovenia in their group he is likely to be up there come the end of the tournament. Value 5 stars to be in top 5

Rooney hasn't been banging them in lately but a very easy group so looks good

My tip
England 1st - U.S.A. 2nd - World Cup 2010 - Group Straight Forecasts: Group C Straight Forecast 5/4
Germany 1st - Serbia 2nd - World Cup 2010 - Group Straight Forecasts: Group D Straight Forecast 3/1
8/1 Boylesports double

ForeverYoung90

Fonze07 wrote: »

The following are the bets i have placed so far: I rate the value of the bet out of 5 stars.

1. 20 euro on Uruguay to win their group at 7/2. Value: 3 stars

France are ****, South Africa are ****

Mexico are the only team that i fear could ruin it but at 7/2 i think its good.

2. 30 euro on Spain, Italy, Holland, England, Argentina and Germany to win their groups is just under 10/1. Very good me thinks. Value 4 stars

3. 25 euro on Villa to be top scorer at 8/1. Just cant see beyond him to finish top scorer. Value: 4 stars

4. Rooney top scorer each way at 11/1. Can't see him being out of the top 5 so will still make a profit if he finishes in the top 5. With Algeria and Slovenia in their group he is likely to be up there come the end of the tournament. Value 5 stars to be in top 5

5. 25 euro Under 19.5 Red Cards in the tournament at 5/6. With 64 matches in total to be played, i dont think there will be a sending off in one every 3 or so matches. Value: 3 stars

6. The final bet i have done so far is a match accumulator. I have put 100 euro on the following. Accumulator works out at just over 11/8
England to beat Algeria (1/4)
Spain to beat Honduras (1/6)
Italy to beat New Zealand (1/7)
Holland to beat Japan (4/9)
Value: 5 stars

Thoughts? Will do a couple more nearer the time!

1.The french are not ****.They have serious individually talented players and could easily win there group.Id avoid betting on this group.
2.I can see either the Germans or Argentines leaving you down here.Germany are missing Ballack and Serbia are very strong while Argintina could be brilliant or a shambles.The other 4 id fancy.
3.I agree with David Villa to be top scorer.Spain have a weak group also.
4.To be honest id look at someone with more value like V.Persie.I just cant see Rooney bagging goals with england like he did so regularly with Utd for some reason.
5.Worth a punt I suppose
6.That looks nice on paper but I should easily see a 0-0 in one of those.The world cup tends to bring the best out of supposedly weaker sides.

paddypowder

brazil ht/ft @4/9 v n. korea

chile ht/ft @ 6/4 v honduras
double

1 euro returns 3.61

chile is in my opinion the most underated squad in the comp

S.M.B.

ForeverYoung90 wrote: »

1.The french are not ****.They have serious individually talented players and could easily win there group.Id avoid betting on this group.

Like Fonze07, I see value in this group. France obviously have quality players but that's not the point. They've been poor in qualification. They've been poor in their friendlies since qualification. They've finish 4th and 2nd in their group for the last 2 world cups.

Uruguay to top the group might not be the correct bet but surely there's money to be made in this group.

dinneenp

KEEP IT SIMPLE.
Once you have doubles, trebles etc it only takes one team to mess up...

I think mainly singles, minimize the risk but have the odd double.
Here's what I'm going with-
acing & Football Outlook paper have a World Cup Betting Guide paper (€3.99).
Here's main tips (without details of reason for tips)
20 pts on Brazil win (5/1). They got past 2 WCs winners correct
10 pts over 163 goals 5/4 (stanjames)
Sell England Team goals for 10 pts at 10.3
15pts David Villa top scorer 9/1
10 pts South Africa to finish bottom 11/10
15 pts on England/USA/Slovenis tricast at 3/1
10 pts on USA over 3.5 group goals at 4/5
10 pts on Algeria under 3 group points at 7/2
10 pts on England to go out in semi finals 4/1
15 pts on Wayne Rooney to be England's top scorer at 13/8 (Boyle)
(back up 5 pts S Gerrard England top scorer at 9/1)
10 pts on Holland 7 points in group at 13/5
(back up4pts on Holland 5 points at 8/1)
8 pts Italy 7 points at 9/4
(back up 3pts on Italy 5 pts at 17/2)
(my own tip Italy 1/2 to top group. throw house on it)
7.5 pts on Brazil 7 points at 5/2

They have a lot of 5pt tips but I've left them out.

I'm also going to keep a close eye on bettingzone for tips too.
So far they have
6pts Robin Van Persie to outscore Carlos Tevez at evens (VC Bet)

In_tuition

Fonze07 wrote: »

5. 25 euro Under 19.5 Red Cards in the tournament at 5/6. With 64 matches in total to be played, i dont think there will be a sending off in one every 3 or so matches. Value: 3 stars

There was 28 red cards in the last World Cup! (I think)

Verance

In_tuition wrote: »

There was 28 red cards in the last World Cup! (I think)

Almost one every other game?? :eek:

In_tuition

One interesting stat from the last World Cup....

No team outside of Western Europe beat a Western European side (apart from Ukraine's penalty shoot-out victory over Switzerland).

Also on one team has ever won the European Championships and gone on to win the next World Cup. (West Germany in 1974).

In_tuition

Verance wrote: »

Almost one every other game?? :eek:

Yep.

18 in the group stages.

Think there was 4-5 in one match! Holland v Portugal.

Verance

In_tuition wrote: »

Think there was 4-5 in one match! Holland v Portugal.

Haha I remember that 'match'. 4 reds with 16 yellows! :eek:

Warper

I dont get the fuss about Serbia at all, can see Australia progress along with Germany. Getting beaten by arguably the worst team in the WC in NZ at home recently is not a good sign - hence the riots. They were slaughtered in the last WC allbeit Serbia/Montenegro when their hopes were very similar to now. Avoid Serbia like the plague would be my advice - Oz to qualify and at 5-2 is a nice price.

The African teams look woeful in the lead-up to the WC though SA have the best chance of getting through with home advantage.

European teams have a very poor record outside of Europe. All in all this tournament is just handmade for Brazil to win.

Verance

dinneenp wrote: »

10 pts on USA over 3.5 group goals at 4/5

What bookie is taking this bet, do you know??

Gillington

Warper wrote: »

I dont get the fuss about Serbia at all, can see Australia progress along with Germany. Getting beaten by arguably the worst team in the WC in NZ at home recently is not a good sign - hence the riots. They were slaughtered in the last WC allbeit Serbia/Montenegro when their hopes were very similar to now. Avoid Serbia like the plague would be my advice - Oz to qualify and at 5-2 is a nice price.

The African teams look woeful in the lead-up to the WC though SA have the best chance of getting through with home advantage.

European teams have a very poor record outside of Europe. All in all this tournament is just handmade for Brazil to win.

I think tomorrow nights game against Poland we will get a clearer view of them with Krasic,Stankovic and Jovanovic mooted to be back in the starting line-up.With regards the group,Germany are bringing the weakest squad I can remember to a tournament,Ghana are missing Essien and seem to be average without him(didnt watch tonights game,maybe someone could let us know how they played) and Australia were very poor against the same NZ side that beat Serbia.Oz were very lucky to get a win,with a last kick of the game goal.I dunno I just like Serbia,looking forward to tomorrow nights game now

ganone

Some bets I'm thinking of going with...

9/2 - Top-scorer to score 8 goals or more - there are some ropey teams in the form of Honduras, New Zealand and North Korea and if a striker can get an early hat-trick and his team go far this is in with a decent enough shout.

9/2 - England to lose on penalties - England will probably waltz through their group and by the second round could rival some of the others for outright favouritism but, and I know it sounds trite, they know how to fail spectacularly. Maybe this is the year that they put that to bed but that's not where my money will be.

5/2 - Australia to make 2nd Round - I reckon the footballeroos are quite similiar to Irish teams that have gone into world cups in the past and we always managed to get to the last 16. No stand-out players but they will be difficult to beat.

Any thoughts?

Juwwi

l have a paddypower coupon from 2 weeks ago and van persie is 25/1 on ot.

they have cut him into 13/1 and hes generally only a 14/1 shot now

Swarlez

i got van persie at 18/1 round a week and a half ago

dinneenp

Verance wrote: »

What bookie is taking this bet, do you know??

Bwin according to the paper guide i read

ForeverYoung90

Ive seen on beatthoseodds that brazil have shortened to 9/2 and 4s.They were 5s with paddys only 2 days ago.Im sickened I kept putting it off to back them.:(

S.M.B.

Agree that Brazil are favourites but I'm not sure if there's too much value in 5/1. Think I'll pass on that bet.