Global Instability

Inscrutable

The volcanic eruption is a humbling reminder of the power of nature. The clear skies, free of contrails over much of Europe, is largely unprecedented.

The media reports focus mainly on stranded passengers, another interesting aspect is the impact on trade. Fresh fruit and veg, electronics, diamonds, flowers, parcels are all transported in the bellies of passenger jets. Air freight makes up 25% of all British imports by value, but just 0.5% by weight. With globalised supply chains, a UK electronics business which imports products from America, say, will be in paralysis. The focus on just in time methods to reduce costs mean if the cloud hangs around much longer, some business will grind to a halt.

The volcanic episode will most likely be over in a few days, but it's worth considering how interconnected and vulnerable our present system is. Iceland's hissy fit is but one example of global instability. Figure 1 shows a chart I made which is perhaps illustrative of some others.


Predictions of collapse date back at least as far as the chief prophet of doom, Malthus' 1798 Essay on the Principle of Population. For many of the same reasons listed in the red box, they predicted adverse change in standard of living. For instance, in the early 1700s, Britain was faced with an energy crisis. Forests surrounding towns were being rapidly depleted. It took 1 ton of firewood to smelt 5kgs of metal. Along came Newcomen in 1712 with his engine to lift water out of flooded coal mines. The rest is history, the energy crisis was over.

The current energy challenge is to find a scalable liquid fuel alternative and simultaneously to decarbonise the world. This is against a backdrop of unprecedented levels of indebtedness. Figure 2 shows US debt, for example.


The green and red arrows have, in modern memory at least, always balanced out, and GDP has marched forward. I get the feeling that the red arrow is gaining the upper hand, which is why I drew it bigger. What say you?

quentingargan

An interesting post. I have wavered between the belief that the party's over, and a hope that human ingenuity can continue to secure our future. This looks like moving into geoengineering, renewable energy etc.

I am not so sure that we need a liquid fuel with the energy density of petrol. I think this has diminished many aspects of our quality of life. I note that a high precentage of our exports are flown, but this is not necessarily because they are urgent - it is simply that their value to weight ratio is such that in terms of cash flow management it is cheaper to fly them than to have valuable inventory sitting in the hold of a ship for eight weeks. The whole "just in time" system of inventory management has a lot to answer for.

In terms of energy supplies, there is a lot of slack in the system. As a kid, I was considered to be privileged to have "continental holidays" once every couple of years. People now expect to do this four times a year or more, and only stay for shorter periods. I think there is a better quality of holiday experience in taking three weeks in a place once a year, than six weekends where you spend half your time on the way there or on the way back.

I look to concepts like the HVDC super-grids to secure renewable electrical power, and conservation to reduce our needs, demand-side management to accomodate intermittent renewables. It is all very feasible without a huge dent in our quality of life. But if we don't prioritise the transition, then indeed our quality of life will suffer, and the doomsayers will be right.

Promising doom has the effect of putting people into denial, or paralysing them. It is perhaps one of the reasons why peak-oil people and the climate change lobby have been ineffective in enabling change. Perhaps we need a positive vision of what is possible to facilitate change?

jinghong

The current energy challenge is to find a scalable liquid fuel alternative and simultaneously to decarbonise the world. This is against a backdrop of unprecedented levels of indebtedness. Figure 2 shows US debt, for example.

May I suggest you put this endevour in the 'red' column, as not only does it belong there (chasing it makes the problem worse), it will certainly be persued via bioethanol, algae biodiesel and other forms of asshattery

In the green column you could add 'avoiding the use of concentrated energy whenever possible'.