Volcano

Sesshoumaru

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18786-get-ready-for-decades-of-icelandic-fireworks.html

We're not quite back to the pre-plane era, but air travel over and around the north Atlantic might get a lot more disrupted in the coming years.

Judging by recent volcanic and earthquake activity, Thordarson and his colleagues believe that Iceland is entering its next active phase and estimate it will last for 60 years or so, peaking between 2030 and 2040.

I'm just wondering what other people think, I mean the likes of Intel probably ship all products manufactured here by airplane right? I'm guessing it is the same for any other high technology multinationals located here.

I know people have short attention spans and expect things to happen quickly i.e. the volcano does its thing for a few days and then the news story is over. But we're talking about a geologic process here! What happens when the owners of big multinationals realise Ireland could have disrupted air links for decades? Would this not be a major reason for them to pull out of Ireland? or am I over estimating the importance of air freight to Ireland's economy?

stepbar

Sesshoumaru wrote: »

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18786-get-ready-for-decades-of-icelandic-fireworks.html





I'm just wondering what other people think, I mean the likes of Intel probably ship all products manufactured here by airplane right? I'm guessing it is the same for any other high technology multinationals located here.

I know people have short attention spans and expect things to happen quickly i.e. the volcano does its thing for a few days and then the news story is over. But we're talking about a geologic process here! What happens when the owners of big multinationals realise Ireland could have disrupted air links for decades? Would this not be a major reason for them to pull out of Ireland? or am I over estimating the importance of air freight to Ireland's economy?

I'm sure they could, as an interterm measure, ship all products to the US and take it from there. Considering the vast majority of companies here are based in the US, I don't see any real problem.

donkey balls

its not just ireland it would be the whole region of the EU that could be affected,the majority of airfreight goes by road from here to the uk then onto aircraft at the major uk airports.
some of the bluechips use whats known as intergraters Fedex/UPS/DHL these companies pick up the freight transport it by road/air and then deliver it to the destination.
this is the first time that european aerospace has been closed due to an AOG, you got to remember that the US airspace was closed down for 3 days after 9/11,most bluechip companies products have a very quick lifespan thats why its shipped by air freight JIT.

Amhran Nua

Ah they'll come up with new technology to deal with the ash buildup if it lasts more than a week. Its a tricky one, since the heat of the engines turns the ash into glass, but I'm sure its solvable. Meanwhile, a return to dirigibles would be great.

Cookie_Monster

flying lower would solve a lot of the problems...

donkey balls

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

flying lower would solve a lot of the problems...

how do reckon that flying lower will solve the problem?

Nehaxak

I'm not complaining, it's been grand and quiet here in Ballymun the last couple of days with the airport being so quiet - tis' like living down the country like

P. Breathnach

Nehaxak wrote: »

I'm not complaining, it's been grand and quiet here in Ballymun the last couple of days with the airport being so quiet - tis' like living down the country like

A case of every cloud having a silver lining?

Sleepy

I'm not such a fan - I don't get home this weekend thanks to the ash so it'll be next weekend before I see my kids.

Must be making the hotels a fortune though!

Andrew33

Sleepy wrote: »

I'm not such a fan - I don't get home this weekend thanks to the ash so it'll be next weekend before I see my kids.

Must be making the hotels a fortune though!

EH? no, people not being able to leave is balanced by the people not being able to arrive!

baalthor

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

flying lower would solve a lot of the problems...

But would create a lot of new ones.

thebman

The EU is a large market though so what would most likely happen is that goods that have to get to market within a certain time would start to be moved back to EU countries if air freight wasn't an option.

I agree with what someone else said though, they will just find a way around it if its going to be a regular event.

Nehaxak

Of course it's also worth mentioning the daily chatter of conspiracy theory type that the lack of air traffic over the skies has meant clouds are less likely to form from their jet output and thusly the sun is getting through and we've lovely weather.

Amhran Nua

Looks like it may go on until Sunday at the very least...



Airline companies are going to get completely wiped out if this drags on for a couple of weeks, I mean bankrupt. Its costing them around €150 million a day. Also the ECJ has ruled that they have to compensate passengers for delays and cancellations, cost around a quarter of a million per flight.

Scofflaw

Nehaxak wrote: »

Of course it's also worth mentioning the daily chatter of conspiracy theory type that the lack of air traffic over the skies has meant clouds are less likely to form from their jet output and thusly the sun is getting through and we've lovely weather.

There's certainly a temperature effect - it was observed after 9/11.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Nijmegen

Air freight can be moved by other methods when push comes to shove. Depending on how you route it, you can get something from Rotterdam to Dundalk in a day by sea. If this disruption goes on, you'll see the market filling in the hole with increased sea freight.

How are propellor driven aircraft affected by this? If they can fly in the dispersed atmosphere (certainly, all the research aircraft flying around this plume and elsewhere are propellor driven) there could be a market for aircraft like the C-130 to fly about Europe.

donkey balls

Nijmegen wrote: »

Air freight can be moved by other methods when push comes to shove. Depending on how you route it, you can get something from Rotterdam to Dundalk in a day by sea. If this disruption goes on, you'll see the market filling in the hole with increased sea freight.

How are propellor driven aircraft affected by this? If they can fly in the dispersed atmosphere (certainly, all the research aircraft flying around this plume and elsewhere are propellor driven) there could be a market for aircraft like the C-130 to fly about Europe.

a prop acft would also be subject to the conditions of the ash the likes of a C-130(which i have flown on) would have the same problems as they are a turbo prop acft,to fly into volcanic ash is like sand blasting your car.
the pitot tubes(small pointy things at the front of the plane) could get blocked given false readings to the crew.

dan_d

Makes you realise how little control we actually have, when Mother Nature decides to do her thing....

Sesshoumaru

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2010/04/16/340727/pictures-finnish-f-18-engine-check-reveals-effects-of-volcanic.html

All the big airlines are screaming that everything is A-OK, but I wouldn't feel so safe flying right now. As the economic damage worsens the safety concerns will be pushed further down the list of priorities. Saying that though, if there was a general consensus amongst scientists that it is safe to fly, then I'd be happy!

Sleepy

Andrew33 wrote: »

EH? no, people not being able to leave is balanced by the people not being able to arrive!

Yes, but people trapped in a location can be charged quite the premium for accomodation when compared to the rate the incoming travellers would have booked it for.

Aidric

P. Breathnach wrote: »

A case of every cloud having a silver lining?

Certainly has been for the train and ferry companies.

jmayo

Nijmegen wrote: »

Air freight can be moved by other methods when push comes to shove. Depending on how you route it, you can get something from Rotterdam to Dundalk in a day by sea. If this disruption goes on, you'll see the market filling in the hole with increased sea freight.

How are propellor driven aircraft affected by this? If they can fly in the dispersed atmosphere (certainly, all the research aircraft flying around this plume and elsewhere are propellor driven) there could be a market for aircraft like the C-130 to fly about Europe.

As donkeyballs pointed out a C-130 is a turbo prop, it does have propellors but they are driven by Gas Turbine engines meaning it would have the same problems that pure jet engines would have.
Similarly for gas turbine helicopters e.g Sikorsky S-61 coast guard helicopter, Irish Aer Corps Aw139s, EC135s and the Garda squirrels.

If the ash (especially glassy particles) enters the air intake, the engine temperatures can be high enough (above 1000 c) to cause the ash to fuse on the turbine blades.
Worst case the engines fail as happened with BA 747 en route to Auckland flying into ash cloud over Indonesia. The engines may surge which only makes matters worse. They need to be throttled back and plane needs to get into clean air, meaning drop out of ash.
Plane eventually diverted to Jakarta but it was then they realised the windscreen was sandblasted.
Similar story with KLM 747 en route Japan to Holland with volcanic ash over Alaska.

Even if engines do not fail they may be damaged which can decrease fuel efficiency and top end performance may be compromised, meaning engines from GE or RR worth anything upto $10 million may need to be scrapped.

The sandblasting and blockage of pitot tubes (necessary for airspeed and altitude measurements) can occurr on any type of aircraft and neither are good for safety or pants of pilots.

Thus it doesn't matter what you are in you don't want to go near it.

Some people are saying fly lower well that is possible, but the engines would not be as efficient meaning less economical, airspace is crowded enough and you don't want small aircraft in same space as fast flying jets.
It could get complicated.

Blobby George

I see the airlines are talking about a rescue package now. Who would fund this? The EU I presume.

ei.sdraob

Blobby George wrote: »

I see the airlines are talking about a rescue package now. Who would fund this? The EU I presume.

oh dear god,
ffs would everyone ****ing stop with this socialising the losses crap

its not funny anymore

Blobby George

ei.sdraob wrote: »

oh dear god,
ffs would everyone ****ing stop with this socialising the losses crap

its not funny anymore

What's your problem? That was a genuine question. If you don't feel like answering it then ignore the post like a good lad.